UPDATE: 00:00 PST 3/13/11 Japanese Met Agency has upgraded the magnitude of the quake to 9.0 — up from 8.8, their previous estimate.
UPDATE: 14:20 PST 3/11/11 Additional graphs and data added to end of post h/t Eco Tretas
UPDATE: 4:05 am PST Tsunami Warning continues for much of the US Pacific Coast and British Columbia.
UPDATE: Compared to quakes since 1900, this appears to be the sixth largest on record, see table added below from USGS data.
Tsunami Warning for the entire Pacific basin coastline including California, impact at 7:42 -8:15 AM local time e.g. San Francisco.
UPDATE: One of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded. Hawaii under Tsunami Warning. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Updates / Warning Website Link. Aftershocks continuing. Tsunami Watch issued for California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Canada…
UPDATE: Here’s a screencap from live streaming from Japan via news helicopter showing the Tsunami as it strike s the north coast:
UPDATE: NHK TV in Japan reports Tsunami hit. Massive damage, reports below.
8.9 quake at Friday, March 11, 2011 at 05:46:00 UTC. Preliminary estimate was 7.9 and was upgraded to 8.8, now 8.9. Current details from USGS. Tsunami warning issued.
We’ll have more on this as it develops.
If you know of webcams in the area in Japan, leave a comment.
(AP) – JAPAN’S METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY NOW WARNS THAT A TSUNAMI AS HIGH AS 20 FEET (6 METERS) COULD STRIKE THE COAST NEAR MIYAGI PREFECTURE, CLOSEST TO THE EPICENTER.
WEHW40 PHEB 110557
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-110757-
/O.NEW.PHEB.TS.A.0001.110311T0557Z-000000T0000Z/
BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
756 PM HST THU MAR 10 2011
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WATCH
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT
0756 PM HST.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0746 PM HST 10 MAR 2011
COORDINATES - 38.0 NORTH 142.9 EAST
LOCATION - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 7.9 MOMENT
EVALUATION
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE
IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF
THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
0259 AM HST FRI 11 MAR 2011
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
From Fox News :
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii said a tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and U.S. state of Hawaii.
The quake struck at 2:46 p.m. at a depth of 10 kilometers, about 80 miles (125 kilometers) off the eastern coast, the meteorological agency said. The area is 240 miles (380 kilometers) northeast of Tokyo.
In downtown Tokyo, large buildings shook violently and workers poured into the street for safety. TV footage showed a large building on fire and bellowing smoke in the Odaiba district of Tokyo.
From CBS News:
Japanese television showed video of serious damage caused by a tsunami along the nation’s northern coast. Public broadcaster NHK showed cars, trucks, houses and buildings being swept away by the tsunami in Onahama city, Fukushima prefecture.
A tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and U.S. state of Hawaii.
There were reports that evacuations were underway along the Russian coast.
===================================================================
| Rank Location | Date | Magnitude2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Chile | May 22, 1960 | 9.5 |
| 2. | Prince William Sound, Alaska | March 28, 19643 | 9.2 |
| 3. | Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands | March 9, 1957 | 9.1 |
| 4. | Kamchatka | Nov. 4, 1952 | 9.0 |
| 5. | Off western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia | Dec. 26, 2004 | 9.0 |
| 6. | Off the coast of Ecuador | Jan. 31, 1906 | 8.8 |
| 7. | Offshore Maule, Chile | Feb. 27, 2010 | 8.8 |
| 8. | Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands | Feb. 4, 1965 | 8.7 |
| 9. | Northern Sumatra, Indonesia | March 28, 2005 | 8.7 |
| 10. | India-China border | Aug. 15, 1950 | 8.6 |
http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=ofun
Hanasaki (almost also 4 meters max variation)
http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=hana
Omaezaki
http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=omae
Wake Island (little variation)
http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=wake
Guam (little variation)
I would like to thank Sam for his kind comments, and for the work of Anthony on WUWT, a fine site on climate science that I and my readers enjoy very much.
As for my prediction of the Japan earthquake:
I accomplished this by astrological means, as I do with all of my advanced climate and weather forecasting.
I applied the same methods with my forecast of El Nino & La Nina for the period 2009-2011.
What we are experiencing are celestial forces and their impacts on the Earth. We are in for a rough two months or so of very strong seismic activity and weather anomalies, according to my calculations.
My warnings are based on my astrological findings, based on variable mathematics – not ‘pop culture astrology,’ which is the place from where those who make dismissing comments always base their uninformed opinions.
Those who dismiss astrology, in my view, are simply ignorant of that on which they speak. They are no different from those who say mankind is the cause of climate change – something I reject as ignorant as well.
They also tend to forget that astrologers invented meteorology, the forecasting of climate and weather conditions, in advance.
Personal dispositions, biases, ideology and ignorance have no place in science.
And for those who dismiss ‘astrology,’ they are also dismissing outright the works of Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin – all astrologers.
My practice of Astrology is as a polymath and scientist. I am proud to be a mundane astrologer and astrometeorologist. I do not need, seek, or desire the validation of anyone ignorant of that on which they comment to be able and free to work in my professional field.
The situation in Japan is very sad, but I knew it was coming. The resulting damage and threats from the damaged nuclear reactors is a very serious matter.
I’ve also forecasted seismic activity to strike California as well. All the astrological indicators I’ve seen are there.
The strong lunar perigee this month, and another in April are serious matters when it comes to seismic and weather events.
We will see more natural disasters associated with the configurations of bodies relative to the Earth and I’ve published findings and forecasts in advance so people can be prepared.
These are serious times and require serious minds to help to preclude and reduce as much damage as is possible.
Theodore White, astrometeorologist.S
Could there be a possible short or medium term climatic effects from the Japan’s earthquake?
Relationship between Kuroshio current and Kuroshio countercurrent flowing along the Japanese islands is important factor in the pacific climatic picture.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Japan%27s_ocean_currents.PNG
There is possibility that this relationship may be affected in some way.
Checking in. Home is about 60km NNW of Sendai. Magnitude and duration caught my attention. First arrivals (P waves) were obviously from Miyagi, and I knew it was going very bad for people on the coast. Lots of noise from the house and stuff jumping about, but no significant damage at home or in the community. Home is 3 storey steel frame on reinforced concrete footings, built to the latest (post Great Hanshin) standards
The scary part is you don’t know how big or how long, you just have to wait for things to stop. Lots of aftershocks. Power has been off until this evening (local time) and water is still off. We filled the bath while water was still running, so we have enough t drink, and I’ve been harvesting snowmelt from the garage roof as a reserve.
Astrology :rolleyes: jeez, give us a break.
“Hector Pascal says:
March 12, 2011 at 2:39 am
The scary part is you don’t know how big or how long, you just have to wait for things to stop.”
That’s my experince too, in New Zealand. It’s that “pregnant pause” at 2am (Or any other time TBH but at night is more confusing) after being shaken awake, thrown out of bed etc and, after understanding the land you live on, thinking “Is this the big one and where the hell are my pants?” type thoughts.
Well, Hector, “Astrology :rolleyes: jeez, give us a break,” accurately forecasted ENSO and a 8.9 earthquake. So, let’s leave out the ignorant comments if you don’t have anything substantive to add other than ‘rolleyes.’
Give me a break.
Vukcevic, answering your question: “Could there be a possible short or medium term climatic effects from the Japan’s earthquake? There is possibility that this relationship may be affected in some way.”
The quake affected earth’s spin rate by microseconds, but more worrisome is the nuclear reactor crisis.
I expect a core meltdown at one of the two reactors in northern Japan and there’s serious problems with at least four other reactors damaged by the earthquake.
There has been release of cesium into the atmosphere and the problem of cooling the rods has severely reduced the likelihood they will be able to stop a core meltdown.
Going into Sunday, it looks as if the world will see a real ‘China Syndrome,’ in Japan.
Very, very serious weeks and months are ahead.
Piers Corbyn says “The massive Japan Earthquake and Tsunami were triggered by massive events on the Sun and there are more to come in the next two years”
He Says:
• “The Earthquake was preceded by an X class solar flare and a significant hit of the Earth by a Coronal Mass Ejection – reported by nasa – http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News031011-xclass.html
• “We warned after the New Zealand Earthquake on 21 Feb that the solar-lunar scene is set for more Earthquakes for the next two years:
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=314&c=5
• “Many of these Earthquake events, as well as weather events, will be very extreme.
• “Actual Earthquakes are very difficult to predict but major aftershocks will come after this one.
• “Just to be clear in case the usual fools and charlatans make claims the weather and earthquake events that have come and are coming are absolutely nothing to do with CO2 or so called man-made climate change in any way whatsoever and such talk diverts attention from where it is needed and holds back the advancement of science”.
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=325&c=5
·
re: Theodore White
Please be specific. What celestial forces from what celestial bodies?
So this is the quality of your logic? You think that because some scientist was correct with one thing (eg. Newton and gravity) that they must be correct with everything (eg. Newton and astrology). Alternatively, you think that because somebody dismisses one part of somebodies beliefs (eg. Newton and astrology) they must also dismiss their scientific work (eg. Newton and gravity).
None of the science produced by Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin depended upon their belief in astrology. I will not dismiss anybodies science based solely upon their beliefs whether it be Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, astrology or even a belief in a flat earth provided that their science is not dependent upon their beliefs.
Some people wonder if the moon was to blame for the earthquake. The tides are greatest during a new moon and during a full moon. However March 12 was the date of the quarter moon so this aspect of the moon’s phase had nothing to do with the earthquake. In addition, the moon goes in an elliptical orbit so it is at a close point once a month and at a far point once a month. The close points are February 19 and March 19, whereas the far point in its orbit is March 6. So the date of the earthquake on March 11 could not have had anything to do with the distance to the moon either.
I can’t find the LINK anymore – I think it was on Drudge.com, but someone associated with the Tsunami Warning Center said, based on the energy released, the size of the Tsunami, etc, the quake should be upgraded to 9.1.
@ur momisugly TerryS says:
March 12, 2011 at 9:40 am
“None of the science produced by Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin depended upon their belief in astrology.”
Kepler was a great sceptic, but his observations forced him to accept things he would never had believed in. He applied his findings of heliocentric configurations in forecasting the very cold winter of 1595, which is when he found fame, many years before producing his orbital equations. By the same repeatable principles, I can hindcast any recorded cold winter. I call it Planetary Ordered Solar Theory.
Terry said, “None of the science produced by Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin depended upon their belief in astrology. I will not dismiss anybodies science based solely upon their beliefs whether it be Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, astrology or even a belief in a flat earth provided that their science is not dependent upon their beliefs.”
And, you would be wrong.
Astrology is not a simply a ‘belief,’ it is an interdisciplinary science which gave birth to mathematics, medicine, meteorology, astronomy, physics, and other priori-based sciences.
Brahe, Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Ptolemy, Newton, Franklin were all professional astrologers and all they did was based on astrology, which deals with the physical as much as the metaphysical.
Most astrologers are polymaths, widely versed in the sciences. All of the astrologers named above were also astrometeorologists and forecasted climate and weather by astrological means. Facts – not ‘beliefs.’
They simply did not ‘believe’ in it as if it were merely some side show. I suggest you review your own knowledge of the history of astrology, and that of those practitioners of the science of Astrology.
I have been curious about this topic, and as part of my general reading, have wondered how great minds have handled this and how astrology influenced their science.In addition to those mentioned above, St Thomas Aquinas tried to reconcile astrology with Christianity.
For a non-nutty historical perspective, try “The fated sky: astrology in history” by Benson Bobrick. He slowly warms to the topic but retains a detached historical perspective. The correlations mentioned make for fascinating reading. Even Gann charting had its start in astrology.
Having seen the tsunami on TV yesterday, it was shocking to see again the power of nature at work – warehouses and other buildings being bowled over and inundated by this massive wave relentlessly churning forward, with a massive field of debris in tow. I sure hope the Japanese people will be okay, and can survive this knockdown blow of nature.
As for astrology – what is that doing here? Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.
No Larry, the Japanese people will NOT be ‘okay,’ and I’m not a ‘blind squirrel’ that ‘finds an acorn.’
I am a scientist and a mundane astrologer. If you need to demean my expertise, then you are going to have to do much better than ‘squirrels’ and ‘acorns.’
What is ‘astrology doing here?’ What does that mean?
Get off the ‘pop astrology’ mindset, that will you help tremendously.
And do some serious reading. That will expand your knowledge of serious astrology.
Do you think ‘astrology’ is somehow enclosed somewhere as if the forces which are studied by the science are somehow outside of you?
You are inclined by these forces everywhere you go, since the very day you were born, to this very moment now.
Listen, some of those making surface feeder comments on astrology and world events are going to have to wake up from their deep childish sleep and get real. Personal dispositions, opinion and bias are never sufficient posing as knowledge. So let’s not be vulgar, shall we?
These world events are very serious, and astrology plays a major role, as it always has throughout the entire history of humanity. And, times are going to become even more serious in the future. It is time to get real folks.
Those who are clueless to these facts should spend more time getting educated, rather than chucking out silly one-liner comments, weakly disguised to hide their own lack of knowledge on the subject itself.
We’ve seen the same kind of silliness coming from those who blame humanity for global warming without so much as even looking up at the Sun – the cause of all climate change.
You live on a planet which lives in space. These are the inclinations and causes on life on Earth.
Those who spend their time dissing Astrology are those who do not know what they are talking about, because, if they did, then they would not presume to pretend to know what they are commenting.
Welcome to the 21st Century.
Sun 13th March – Channel 9 – 60 minutes program – Liz Hayes just linked the Earthquakes in Japan, Chile and New Zealand with Hurricans, Floods, Bushfires and Droughts … she didn’t **say** Climate Change but it was heavily insinuated.
Theodore,
Newtons “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” is not based, in any part, on astrology. None of his scientific works are. The same is true all the others you name. If I am incorrect in this please provide exact references as to what parts of any of those scientists works are based upon astrology.
What forces are you talking about when you mention “celestial forces” or “the forces which are studied by the science” or “You are inclined by these forces”.
You claim to be a scientist and that astrology is a science well here is your chance. Explain what forces you are talking about, how the forces are generated, detected and measured, what units they are measured in, how they propagate through various mediums and at what speed they propagate.
Terry,
First, I would appreciate it if you would not tell me that “I claim to be a scientist.” I am one, and if that is not sufficient for you, then I suggest you address your comments elsewhere.
I am not in the habit of having to educate those who show little genuine interest attempting to debate a subject in which they are not knowledgeable; yet who have plenty of resources at their fingertips to access to learn.
Second, it is known that all the astrologers I named were, in fact, mundane astrologers, so let’s not go into a ‘rationalist’ discussion because that is just too tired.
Fourth, your usage of the term ‘astrology,’ dictates that it is somehow ‘apart’ from ‘scientific works?”
I would like to know exactly how you have came to this conclusion, since the founders of natural laws and principles of science – including those of natural philosophy, physics, and the planetary laws of motion – were astrologers?
Claudius Ptolemy – astrologer
Tycho Brahe – astrologer
Nicolaus Copernicus – astrologer
Galileo Galilei – astrologer
Johannes Kepler – astrologer
Isaac Newton – astrologer
Benjamin Franklin – astrologer
All of these astrologers were polymaths, or scientists. Each were proficient in the two trees of Astrology – Natural & Judicial. There are many more personages throughout the course of history.
Isaac Newton, just one of my major influences, began his scientific career from his study of astrology.
He advanced to judicial, or mundane astrology and was also a fine meteorologist as well. Furthermore, he also studied Theosophy, a subsection of mundane astrology that focuses on theology.
You can find Newton’s work on this here: http://www.newtonproject.sussex.ac.uk/prism.php?id=141
Theodore,
“First, I would appreciate it if you would not tell me that “I claim to be a scientist.” I am one, and if that is not sufficient for you, then I suggest you address your comments elsewhere. ”
This is Anthony Watts blog, not Theodore Whites. If Anthony has a problem with my comments then I am confident he will let me know.
“I am not in the habit of having to educate those who show little genuine interest attempting to debate a subject in which they are not knowledgeable; yet who have plenty of resources at their fingertips to access to learn.”
If I was not interested I would not ask the questions. I have searched and can find no answer to original query which was:
As you have the knowledge in this area an explanation would be useful.
“Second, it is known that all the astrologers I named were, in fact, mundane astrologers, so let’s not go into a ‘rationalist’ discussion because that is just too tired.”
I dont question whether or not they were astrologers.
“Fourth, your usage of the term ‘astrology,’ dictates that it is somehow ‘apart’ from ‘scientific works?'”
That is correct. It is apart from scientific works.
“I would like to know exactly how you have came to this conclusion, since the founders of natural laws and principles of science – including those of natural philosophy, physics, and the planetary laws of motion – were astrologers?”
They were also all male. This doesn’t mean that being male makes you a scientist. You are making the claim that their science is intertwined with their belief in astrology so please provide references to what parts of their science depends upon astrology.
I come to the conclusion because despite extensive searches I am unable to find anything within astrology that resembles science.
“Isaac Newton, just one of my major influences, began his scientific career from his study of astrology. ”
Newton studying astrology does not make astrology a science. He also studied the occult and alchemy and believed that occult forces where responsible for gravity.
Newtons erroneous belief that occult forces where responsible for gravity does not invalidate his works on gravity. His study of astrology does not make astrology a science.
John Maynard Keynes said of Newton “Newton was not the first of the age of reason, he was the last of the magicians.”. A sentiment I agree with.
I am often labelled ‘astrologer’, but I could not recognise any of the astrology squiggles, and pseudo-scientist, but I am an astronomer or astrophysicist or even scientist, just a practical down to earth engineer.
Reason: pointing out to a strong correlation between Jupiter-Saturn orbits (two planets with strongest magnetic fields) and the sun’s magnetic polar fields oscillations:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
Does matter, or does it bother me?
Not in the least.
Werner Brozek says:
March 12, 2011 at 9:45 am
“Some people wonder if the moon was to blame for the earthquake.”
Tidal forces raise and lower the surface of the ocean on a daily basis, sometime twice. In some places the water rises several feet.
I expect that such strong forces do have the ability to trigger an earthquake, but there is not much, if any, correlation which would allow us to use tides to make predictions.
There is probably an unpredictable lag between tidal forces and the release of faults.
Regardless, the cause is not tide or the moon, the cause is the flow of fluid rock which carries the crust upon its surface. When two convective currents collide, one goes under and the other goes over, crust and all.
Japan is riding like flotsam (or slag on a molten weld) on a current of fluid rock which is flowing eastward. That current is striking a current of fluid rock which is flowing westward (from the mid-ocean ridge) and subducting beneath Japan. The earthquake was a release of a “sticking point” and resulted in the island moving about 9 feet eastward (relative to the Asian contintent I presume), relieving much strain at the fault.
Not an expert but I have read some.
Correction…Japan moved relative to the mid-ocean ridge. Japan rides upon the same plate as Asia.
TerryS,
“John Maynard Keynes said of Newton “Newton was not the first of the age of reason, he was the last of the magicians.”. A sentiment I agree with.”
You were doing so well up to that point, then had to spoil it with an ad hom. If Newton was a ‘magician’ as Keynes claims, then how does that help your argument that Newton’s work was based on science?
On the other hand, I would also like to see your question answered, namely “what are these celestial forces?” a question that Theodore has so far ducked.
Re: Vince Causey.
Here is the full quote:
You can read more here
TerryS,
That was a very interesting read. It puts the original quote in a completely different context, and reveals the deeper, philosophical meaning of Keynes description ‘magician’.
“Up front, the situation is serious, but under control. And this text is long! But you will know more about nuclear power plants after reading it than all journalists on this planet put together.”
All about Fukushima:
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/