I suppose it’s a toss up between “do you want fries with that?” and all the food content danger it implies, or the chance that you’ll get moldy or infected food. Our society has made great advances in food safety in the last century, I don’t expect a few tenths of a degree temperature rise in the last century to change that much. In fact, a sweeping change to food safety laws has just been passed.
Climate change affecting food safety
Unless action taken, the world’s food supply could be endangered by climate change
EAST LANSING, Mich. — Climate change is already having an effect on the safety of the world’s food supplies and unless action is taken it’s only going to get worse, a Michigan State University professor told a symposium at this year’s meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Ewen Todd, an MSU professor of advertising, public relations and retailing, organized a session titled “How Climate Change Affects the Safety of the World’s Food Supply” at which several nationally known experts warned that food safety is already an issue and will worsen unless climate change is confronted.
“Accelerating climate change is inevitable with implications for animal products and crops,” said Todd, who also is an AAAS Fellow. “At this point, the effects of climate change on food safety are poorly understood.”
However, Todd said there are already a number of examples of climate change taking its toll on the world’s food supply. One is Vibrio, a pathogen typically found in warm ocean water which is now becoming more common in the north as water temperatures rise.
“It’s been moving further up the coast these past few years,” he said. “There was an outbreak of it near Alaska in 2005 when water temperature reached 15 degrees Celsius.”
Todd also said that extreme weather – droughts and heavy rains – is having an impact on the world’s food supply. In some areas crops are being wiped out, resulting in higher prices and other issues.
“Mycotoxins are molds that can sometimes cause illness in humans, and where you have drought and starvation there can be a mycotoxin problem,” he said. “That’s because people will store their meager resources of crops for longer than they should.”
Speakers at the symposium included Raymond Knighton of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture; Sandra Hoffman of the USDA’s Economic Research Service; and Cristina Tirado from the University of California, Los Angeles.
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mcfarmer says:
February 22, 2011 at 6:02 am (Edit)
One of the drawbacks here in Africa is the fierce, and rather perverse, hatred the governments have for GM crops. The argument used is that the local farmer will be tied into Monsanto or the like and they would rather plant grain kept back from previous harvests to save money.
It is rather an empty argument as here in Zimbabwe the farmers all buy a locally produced hybrid seed anyway. I suppose in really bad times when the farmer can’t afford to buy seed it makes some sort of sense but in that situation he would have eaten all of his grain anyway.
The stiff stance may be driven by NGO’s of course. They are staffed with left wing activists who lecture against the evils of capitalist multi-nationals and so are able to run their own experiments in social and economic engineering.
As for the yelling match. You can just keep your squelch button turned up and give me your opinion on the above.
Tx.
I tried to post a comment on this story on upi.com Pointed out the problems with the story and added this is why some of us don’t believe in AGW. I got moderated
Catastrophic Global Alarmism drove politicians to promote “biofuels” as “green”.
The catastrophic consequences are competition for prime agricultural land, driving up food prices – and starving the poor.
Maternal and Young Child Nutrition Adversely Affected by External Shocks Such As Increasing Global Food Prices Ian Darnton-Hill and Bruce Cogill, J. Nutr. January 2010 vol. 140 no. 1 162S-169S
Promote sensible fuel policies that do NOT starve the poor.
Goal – develop solar thermochemical fuels on desert lands cheaper than petroleum.
A positive note for once: Here’s a piece of HONEST research in the area of climate as related to the NW part of US. Research that pays attention to baselines, takes account of cycles, and doesn’t make any religious assumptions. Conclusion: most of the 20th century was abnormally wet, but now it’s returning to a more normal dry phase.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-02/uop-6cr022111.php
I shouldn’t have been so surprised by this research, since it was done by geologists. They’ve remained honest, stubbornly resisted the Gaia infection.
In a world that is currently awash in corn and wheat I would like to know exactly where the crop shortages are? Because of the weak dollar, and large amount of debt the US and Europe are incurring, one cannot get a decent price signal from commodities. Supply and Demand issues are being distorted by hedge fund managers looking for safer harbors. That is, the recent spike in food prices around the gobe have nothing to do with shortages brought on by weather extremes.
In other cases, citing an example of Alaskan SSTs from 6 years ago does not make the Alarmist’s point. The classical ENSO signatures in the Pacific have areas of high SST anomalies that are regional. That is, if the extreme Northwest Pacific is seeing warmer than normal SSTs, it is probably because a La Nina conditions is occuring, which brings on colder than normal temps worldwide. Alarmists seem to be ignorant of the fact that in a warming or cooling globe, not all areas warm or cool. That is why I always insist that Climate is mainly a human construct, as humans statisticaly define the terms, parameters and metrics of Climate. Weather, on the other hand, is what is.
Our food supplies are just fine for now. And if anything, a warming world creates better crop yields (ask the Mexican farmers who this month saw thier entire produce crop die off due to record low temperatures). Of course, the Alarmists cannot say whether we are warming or cooling anymore. Hence the terms, Climate Change or Climate Disruption.
The range of problems caused by climate change is quite awesome!
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
David
Olen says:
February 22, 2011 at 7:24 am
“Such an operation takes money and the source should be known. A WAG would be tax dollars.”
You are correct; it takes a lot of money going to a lot of people. Tax dollars are part of it. The UN is another (essentially tax dollars too). But it is the lesser known sources that are the real problem and many of us continue to unknowingly build up those who are funding these things. The lesser known (or more accurately lesser exposed) list contains names like George Soros, Google, GE, WMF, big oil, etc.
The most appalling aspect of it all is that those who believe this junk science (if it even rises to that level) is that groups like the NEA and the heads of once esteemed scientific institutions like the NAS and AAAS support this nonsense, too, entirely because of political views. This is not by chance and did not just happen overnight. These groups took over the institutions of higher learning in the US and moved on to the high schools and grade schools in order to brainwash the last several generations of American youths. I cannot speak to their counterparts in other parts of the world, but I’m sure, if anything, the only difference is that they had a jump start on America.
Everywhere you go this stuff is out there prophesizing and brainwashing our children. You can’t go to a zoo or aquarium without being beaten over the head with it. You can’t even send your kids to school without it being pushed as undeniable fact by non-thinking teachers who are told exactly what to say about it by the NEA.
And here’s where I really get labeled a whacko – It can all be traced back to the Communist revolution of the mid 20th century. Khrushchev said that democracy would slowly be replaced by communist ideals so subtly and slowly that no one would even notice the change to a democracy in name only. The absurd adherence to the AGW mantra and unrelenting storm of propaganda being spewed at us is the final phase of Khrushchev’s prophecy coming true. It is a power grab and a political shift and nothing more. Those who are doing their part to help bring it about think they will be rewarded once the change is complete. Unfortunately for them, they will be powerless to do anything about it when they realize they, too, are nothing more than pawns in the game of the new elite.
I fear many of us are fighting the wrong fight on the AGW train. We need to continue to point out the flaws in the supposed science. But more importantly we need to take on the political wing that is driving it. The first step was just taken this past election in the States. But that’s just the first step. This path has been followed for decades and many millions more steps need to be taken to return to the fork in the road where we made our initial wrong turn.
OK, I’ll stop my rant now. Thanks for letting me vent. Dr. Watts, my check for this session of therapy is in the mail…
So
Price of corn is going up due to use as ethanol fuel. Mexican crops 80-100% failure. US Senate passes more food regulations (that will apply to small farmers too). Add all this up, what happens to the price of food?
When these “experts” speak of “climate events”, the term that should be used is “weather events”. Late spring soggy ground makes it impossible to plow the soil.
When I was a lad on a farm 1938 through the summer of 1949 (near Sioux City, IA), 90 bushels of corn per acre was a bumper crop. Now, 140 bushels of corn per acre is mediocre. This is due to the increased levels of CO2.
Adding ethanol to gasoline reduces performance so much that in total, more gallons of gasoline must be used. Mostly coal is used to distill the ethanol from the fermented mash. Corn is the choice for ethanol, as corn produces the highest yield per acre.
Excessive moisture causes mold to grow, and storing moist grain will cause toxic levels of mold to grow. Excessive moisture on grass will cause so much mold to grow that animals feeding on the grass will be sickened and die. Drying grain requires carbon based fuel, as does controlling humidity and temperature in grain storage buildings require electricity.
Increases in fuel prices causes increases in prices of everything we buy or consume, and transportation costs increase with increases in the price of fuel.
We have embarked on a ship of madness. Famine can occur due to prices of food so high that the masses can’t afford the purchase of food. From famine comes revolution, and revolutions are always violent, with much blood spilled.
chris b says:
February 22, 2011 at 6:36 am
Goes to show that one should never get snarky before finishing one’s morning coffee. Thank you. I suspect that the disease was up there well prior to 2005… when I get a bit more time, I’ll Look again.
Ain’t that the truth! Looking at the warmlist …
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
… I see the total is now 851 linked items attributed to AGW and its relations. Clearly it would be in everyone’s best interest if Gavin, Romm, MM, or Grant Foster would simply create a Coldlist or Anti-Warmlist where they can enumerate the 3 or 4 items NOT attributed to AGW.
As to what those couple of things happen to be, well, I got nuthin’.
OK, finally something that I am an expert in!!
Here’s the symposia abstracts:
http://aaas.confex.com/aaas/2011/webprogram/Symposium73.html
Would a warmer planet have some food safety tradeoffs? Well, certainly! It is to be expected that certain fungi and bacteria would grow at faster rates. However, these pests are relatively easy to control….most food contamination events are from fecal contamination from human or animal hosts, and we are getting better at controlling that all the time.
The balance would be that a warmer planet would have greater food productivity, so overall, the amount of food fit for human consumption will rise. This will lead to less famine…it’s hard to worry about foodborne pathogens when you have to eat dirt just to feel as if you have something in your stomach (common in Africa).
The stuff about “more vibrio” is nonsense, this primarily comes from animal or human fecal contamination into drinking water or some seafoods (especially bivalves). The world needs more affordable sewage treatment, soap & education, and less scary bedtime stories.
I want to be an expert too. What and where should I study to gain that appellation?
I am not very fussy (fussy enough of course not to disqualify me from my ambition at the outset) and I would be happy to be recognised as expert in any matter of affairs at all. Shall I be awarded a certificate; a diploma? Who shall award it? Can I expect to be addressed by my fellow man (and all of those of little significance)
as Expert Kenneth Harvey? Once I have the desired qualification, shall I be able to pontificate on my chosen subject, or indeed on any other subject that may take my fancy, without fear of gainsay by men at large? The more that I think about it the more that I like it. I want to be able to tell the powers that be what taxes should be collected and how they should be spent.
One thing is sure. When the time comes I shall shun such statements as, “the science is poorly understood”. What sort of expert admits to that level of a lack of expertise? No. Once I have pronounced my findings I shall be ready to sue any gainsayer for defaming my professional reputation. A real expert is what I want to be.
Everyone needs to calm down and take a deep breath about biofuels. Not all biofuels are created equal! Biofuel from important food crops (like soy, corn, sugar beets, and sugar cane) is a boondoggle but biofuel from genetically modified algae that grow in seawater, brackish water, and munipical wastewater on land that isn’t suitable for growing traditional food crops does not threaten food supplies.
Oh, good grief! We would have a very boring diet here in the UK if we didn’t import quite a lot of our food from warmer, drier countries. A bit more warmth in the UK wouldn’t go amiss.
More food would be available for the world’s hungry people without crazy Biofuel production.
Hey, climate affects food production! Who would have thunk that?
But then so does growing biofuels, and the price of foodstuffs is then further affected by hedge funds et al who view food as just another commodity rather than a basic necessity for life.
Maybe we should try tackling the last two to achieve a faster resolution of the problem!
Any more doom and gloom?
Wonder when this bubble of woe is going to burst?
What is it with people today, why they constant search for negatives?
What or who, has created this deficit culture in, so called, educated people?
David says:
February 14, 2011 at 4:31 am
Experimental and Real World results for 300 ppm increase from ambient in hundreds of studies of rice, wheat, corn and soy…
Triticum aestivum L. [Common Wheat]
Statistics
300 ppm
Number of Results 235
Arithmetic Mean 32.1%
Standard Error 1.8%
Glycine max (L.) Merr. [Soybean]
Statistics
300 ppm
Number of Results 179
Arithmetic Mean 46.5%
Standard Error 2.8%
Zea mays L. [Corn]
Statistics
300 ppm
Number of Results 20
Arithmetic Mean 21.3%
Standard Error 4.9%
Triticum aestivum L. [Common Wheat]
Statistics
300 ppm
Number of Results 235
Arithmetic Mean 32.1%
Standard Error 1.8%
corn, soy wheat and rice all grow significantly quicker, produce greater bio-mass. endure heat cold and drought better, when exposed to 300 ppm increase in CO2.
Good Algore post on Maggie’s Farm.
A dalton minimum like event would also be a threat to food security, perhaps Ewen Todd would like to discuss that at some point in time.
Is there some research or are there articles on the changes in arable land — positive as well as negative — that the GW models predict? I’d love to see some maps, and net estimates of increase/decrease.
Is anyone on the planet, with the obvious exception of journalists, idiot enough to believe this garbage anymore?
“Josh Grella says:
February 22, 2011 at 9:26 am”
Maybe a revolution, middle eastern style, is in order. It seems voting does nothing to alter the thinking of the political elite.
professor of advertising, public relations and retailing
WTF? Am I supposed to be impressed by that?
Ken Harvey says:
February 22, 2011 at 11:58 am
I want to be an expert too. What and where should I study to gain that appellation?
—-
REPLY: Do as I did….obtain three degrees in infectious disease epidemiology, work in the food processing industry for 30+ years, win awards and recognition from both your clients and US/UK governments, publish original results and papers, obtain patents, work with the FBI on food and water infrastructure protection, and keep doing it until you eventually die. Good luck.