Early reports from the Lisbon conference

Dr. Judith Curry added a couple of comments on her blog while attending the Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation in the Climate Change Debate. For those wondering why I’m not there even though invited, and to see a rationale for the report, please see my previous post: The hope of Lisbon

I’m sure there will be more coming. I’m looking forward to hearing from Steven Mosher on the event. Dr. Curry’s comments follow.

Had an interesting dinner with Tallbloke, McIntyre, McKitrick, Webster, Mosher, Stokes. If anyone is concerned by an insufficient diversity of perspectives, well I don’t think you need to be too concerned.

The morning session is in progress, with each participant making a 5 minute statement. There are genuinely a diversity of perspectives here, about a third of the participants are physical scientists with some knowledge of climate science, whereas the majority are social scientists (with a few journalists).

The meeting is being run under Chatham House rules. A few points that have caught my interest so far:

• dealing with complex problems using complex tools, ideas

• the idea of reconciliation in scientific debates is to try different approaches in an experimental meeting for attempting nonviolent communication in impassioned debates where there is disagreement

• reconciliation is not about consensus, but rather creating an arena where we can have honest disagreement

• violence in this debate derives from the potential impacts of climate change and the policy options, and differing political and cultural notions of risk and responsibility.

• disagreement in climate science is more violent than other fields where there is much disagreement and high societal stakes (e.g. economics). One person attributed the violence of the disagreement in climate science to the propensity of scientific societies to publish position statements, and the IPCC itself; these create animosity and hostility through the exercise of power without sufficient accountability.

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It's always Marcia, Marcia
January 26, 2011 2:01 pm

At least Mosher and Stokes know enough math to buy a plane ticket. Maybe the price wasn’t a lower high amount so not to make it so confusing for them. If weighting had been added to the price they wouldn’t have made it.
(this is a reference to their poor work on weighting of station locations)

xyzlatin
January 26, 2011 2:22 pm

I think that Richard North, at his EU Referendum blog, has a priceless comment which I think applies to this conference and the attendance of skeptics.
His comment is about the BBC documentary which set up James Delingpole to be humiliated, and I quote “Delingpole’s mistake was in trying to play a bent game straight.”

geo
January 26, 2011 2:26 pm

“disagreement in climate science is more violent than other fields where there is much disagreement and high societal stakes (e.g. economics). One person attributed the violence of the disagreement in climate science to the propensity of scientific societies to publish position statements, and the IPCC itself; these create animosity and hostility through the exercise of power without sufficient accountability.”
Great deal of truth in that. If there was a “world-wide official truth giver” organization for “truth” in economics, you bet there’d be hell to pay on how rude the disagreements would get.
But that’s not all of it. Economics is a soft science that has been inching its way for centuries towards a legitimate status as a hard science (and still it isn’t there). It knows this about itself. Climate science is a relatively new science, that has not come to terms with how much of a “soft” science it still is. It *thinks* it is a very hard science, with immutable truths, and this leads to intolerance when those “truths” are challenged.

RichieP
January 26, 2011 2:39 pm

John Phillips says:
January 26, 2011 at 7:26 am
‘I think the word violence is being mis-used. A vigorous and even rancorous debate is not violent.’
Including a debate that includes this?

January 26, 2011 2:53 pm

This one expression eloquently sums up the position of the high priests of the AGW cult, such as Hansen, Jones and Mann.
“power without sufficient accountability”

RiHo08
January 26, 2011 3:08 pm

Civility and being civil is much in the news lately, especially after the shootings in Arizona. The President had as a theme, “civility” in his State of the Union Address. I have read this thread and Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. blog and I decided to copy what I had written there, here:
Civility can not be imposed. Civility is also defenseless in the face of violence. Civility and non-violent actions occur in an community which values civility and shames violence and violent behavior. Therefore it is altogether fitting and proper that a meeting, whose objective is reconciliation, is predominately attended by the social and political scientists who embrace civility, and will carry that conciliatory mind-set back to their community. A community is larger than the perpretators of violent speach and violent actions. So, reconciliation will blossom in a community where violence is shamed; and the violent perpretator is left unheard no matter how clairvoyant their message, and relegated to the dustbin of history. Climate science is no more or less vulnerable to such community influences or potential outcomes. The arguement for the righteousness of a radiative transfer model cannot nor will not be sustained by an angry or violent delivery.
It really doesn’t matter what the “Truth” is in Reconciliation at least at this point as there is no way to know for certain what the truth looks like. What matters is having a dialogue, in this case a civil dialogue. If the community shames those who speak violently or act violently, the eventual truth will become known. Let the data catch up with the rhetoric, and, as my mother said “..keep a civil tongue in your head!”

xyzlatin
January 26, 2011 3:20 pm

RichieP says:
January 26, 2011 at 2:39 pm
Re the video. This is a poorly executed ratbag film made by warmists depicting fake not actual violence. It is a lefty come warmy fantasy, right? When I first saw it I thought it was a spoof by skeptics and was astounded to find it was actually seriously made by warmists!
What has this got to do with the allegations AGW climate scientists that they have received real violence and are under threat of real violence (ie actual physical assault, not movie depictions of fantasy) by skeptics? The topic was put on the agenda by warmists remember, in particular AGW scientist J Curry.
See my comments above, re this being a straw man set up and it is working. Everyone is now discussing the supposed violence, instead of the science. ie, skeptics skilfully diverted off topic by AGW scientist Judith Curry and are now discussing the fantasies of warmists.
People, one thing the warmists have consistently shown, is that they are great at PR and promoting themselves and their ideas. They know what the skeptics are only now waking up to. This is a huge PR exercise and has been for 20 years.
So any conference put on by warmists to supposedly confer with skeptics, is another PR exercise to promote themselves.
They regard us as the enemy. They have not apologised. They have not retracted. They are continuing rorting the system. They are continuing their PR with governments. They are continuing scare campaigns in the media.
The war is ongoing from them towards us.

James Allison
January 26, 2011 3:27 pm

It will be a talkfest achieving nothing.

January 26, 2011 3:42 pm

Anthony,
If you really stayed home for your sons scouting event,
I praise and admire you even more….
pRadio

Malcolm Miller
January 26, 2011 3:56 pm

I agree with Chris Riley. We are surrounded by people who want us to do what they ‘know’ is best for us, and it’s all just power-seeking over others.

Noblesse Oblige
January 26, 2011 4:17 pm

“One person attributed the violence of the disagreement in climate science to the propensity of scientific societies to publish position statements, and the IPCC itself; these create animosity and hostility through the exercise of power without sufficient accountability.”
Incisive indeed. And the societies had better start/continue moving away from their positions for damage control.

John Whitman
January 26, 2011 5:13 pm

The lead in post quotes Judith Curry,

” The meeting is being run under Chatham House rules. A few points that have caught my interest so far:
• dealing with complex problems using complex tools, ideas
• the idea of reconciliation in scientific debates is to try different approaches in an experimental meeting for attempting nonviolent communication in impassioned debates where there is disagreement
• Reconciliation is not about consensus, but rather creating an arena where we can have honest disagreement
• violence in this debate derives from the potential impacts of climate change and the policy options, and differing political and cultural notions of risk and responsibility.
• disagreement in climate science is more violent than other fields where there is much disagreement and high societal stakes (e.g. economics). One person attributed the violence of the disagreement in climate science to the propensity of scientific societies to publish position statements, and the IPCC itself; these create animosity and hostility through the exercise of power without sufficient accountability.”

=================
More simply to the point, perhaps just a simple reference to a rational standard for intellectual discourse would have been more meaningful and concise. That standard is simply intellectual integrity.
Having the climate science discourse termed ‘violent’ seems to be some indirect pejorative insinuation. Why waste precious mental energy on trivial sideshows like that?
Reconciliation? I take the intended meaning to be ‘ the reestablishing of cordial relations’ [ http://www.thefreedictionary.com/reconciliation ]. This is simple and means no name calling or ad hominem; it means addressing each other directly in civil discourse. It does not mean changing ones ideas just because there is energetic debate in an open venue. See intellectual integrity suggestion above.
John

January 26, 2011 5:19 pm

Ben U. says:
January 26, 2011 at 7:34 am
How are they defining “violence”?
I once got stuck on a train journey beside a couple of young sociology students. Once we got going the opening gambit of one to the other was: “Well, define conflict.”
It was a very long journey…

psi
January 26, 2011 5:33 pm

geo says:
January 26, 2011 at 2:26 pm
“But that’s not all of it. Economics is a soft science that has been inching its way for centuries towards a legitimate status as a hard science (and still it isn’t there). It knows this about itself. Climate science is a relatively new science, that has not come to terms with how much of a “soft” science it still is. It *thinks* it is a very hard science, with immutable truths, and this leads to intolerance when those “truths” are challenged.”
Well put. Moreover, its a “science” that has grown up with a dependency on the computer, and almost infantile belief in the power of that computer to provide highly accurate results modeling complex systems. Warming science believes that because it operates the computers, it is modeling reality. Maintaining this belief requires a cultivated ignorance of the real world which can only be induced in people who have gone through the ritual of a PhD dissertation (that’s not a knock at PhDs- I happen to have one). Its a “social science” observation about the ritual dimension of higher education.

Roger Carr
January 26, 2011 6:55 pm

Claude Harvey says:
January 26, 2011 at 9:20 am
      “Judith was very astute to begin hedging her bets some time ago. …
A cynical comment I wholly endorse, Claude.

Pete H
January 26, 2011 9:16 pm

As scientists they should agree to simply state their findings, leave it to others to prove or disprove their thesis but above all…Stop telling us how to lead our lives!

Ben U.
January 26, 2011 9:22 pm

The reference to “violence” may be a trivial sideshow and maybe the conference will make some progress, but, given the US left’s ongoing and intensified effort to pin some violence on the right (despite leftist intimidation and violence by Casey Brezik, SEIU, etc.), I’d keep my guard up.
And suddenly, this, which I just read in the last half hour: “Shout at your spouse and risk losing your home: It’s just the same as domestic violence, warns woman judge” – the Mail Online (UK), January 27, 2011. The judge argued that the meaning of the word “violence” has changed since the relevant law was enacted, so it’s up to the courts alone to decide (and decide that the new meaning shall govern), and so on. Now, I dislike folks who shout and berate, but vehemence is not violence; their being equated seems a leftist rhetorical imperative rippling through everything at the moment.

January 27, 2011 2:32 am

tonyb says:

…I emailed Dr Trenberth to complain about the use of the word ‘Deniers’… I had a reasonably civil reply back from him… However, it was obvious that he had been innundated with numerous abusive emails which I think had only served to harden his position.

I am aware of the existence of brownshirts (pretending to be?) ON BOTH SIDES whose main activity seems to be to send threats direct to people without posting on blogs to say what they are doing; so blogs are not aware and don’t feel the need to take any responsibility for policing or at least clearly disown such people. I believe this includes death threats to people on both sides. This simply cements divisions into place and makes dialogue harder if not impossible.
We don’t know the content of what was emailed to Trenberth, and I doubt if he will tell. But I think it might help a lot, to have some kind of public disclaimer sent to any appropriate people on occasions like this, disowning any abusive language or threats. I hope this message reaches Lisbon.
It might also help if the skeptics’ community could agree key issues where there is genuine concern and evidence against the “consensus” orthodoxy, and have statements up that not just Smokey but everyone here can point to. A set of counter-statements to those of John Cook – and with the science backup.
It would be a creative alternative to saying lots here, which can become little more than an echo-chamber if good statements are not distilled out. Graham Stringer’s statement is classic in this sense.

Jessie
January 27, 2011 3:43 am

Roger Carr says: January 26, 2011 at 6:55 pm
et al
Hypatia and her dismissal of empiricism did not do too well.

January 27, 2011 4:59 am

Kev-in-Uk says:
January 26, 2011 at 9:50 am (Edit)
Lets just ask why such a ‘meeting’ requires such a rule?
The skeptics and lukewarmers are unlikely to require identity protection, are they? So presumably, it is to protect the warmists?, especially if they have to ‘fess up’ to anything – questions like, is this paper realistic? or did you know this was wrong? etc etc….
######
I believe it was adopted for the benefit of journalists.

January 27, 2011 5:19 am

It’s always Marcia, Marcia says:
January 26, 2011 at 2:01 pm (Edit)
At least Mosher and Stokes know enough math to buy a plane ticket. Maybe the price wasn’t a lower high amount so not to make it so confusing for them. If weighting had been added to the price they wouldn’t have made it.
(this is a reference to their poor work on weighting of station locations)
########
Thanks for clarifying which mistake you are making about our work.

Laurie Bowen
January 27, 2011 8:31 am

Jessie
“Hypatia and her dismissal of empiricism did not do too well.”
Didn’t work out well for Socrates, Galileo, Copernicus and many others . . . . It’s almost as if it is a crime to think rationally.

Lady Life Grows
January 27, 2011 10:54 am

Every relevant scientific field to be there except those whose expertise relates to the POINT of the whole debate: agriculturalists and biologists.
Not that they would do much good if they remain as easily bamboozled as much of what I have seen in peer-reviewed print recently. Wild speculation as to how something might be harmed by global warming, with 5 to 10% of the material being derived from actual scientific collection and evaluation of evidence.

January 29, 2011 2:59 pm

psi talks about “the infantile belief in the power of that computer”. The New God.
Our son is completing a mechanical engineering course at a good school where the professors still refer to each other as “instructors”. “When you are in the field, a pencil and a piece of paper may help you to solve a problem faster and easer than any fancy computing device”, has been heard more than once in the classroom.