
Complaints over “impossible conclusions” cited as the reason.
EurekAlert withdraws climate change paper
A study warning that the planet would warm by 2.4C by 2020, creating deadly consequences for the global food supply, is being debunked as false and impossible.
The study came from a little-known, non-profit group based in Argentina, called the Universal Ecological Fund. An embargoed copy of the study appeared on Eurekalert!, a news service operated by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) that’s followed by many journalists.
The study was picked up by a number of international news organizations Tuesday. But it appears the study’s claims were erroneous.
The AAAS says that after receiving complaints that the study’s conclusions were impossible, it has removed all references to the study from its website.
“EurekAlert! deeply regrets the accidental posting of an erroneous news release on 18 January 2011,” the news service wrote in a notice to journalists who subscribe to the service.
“EurekAlert! deeply regrets the accidental posting of an erroneous news release on 18 January 2011,” the news service wrote in a notice to journalists who subscribe to the service.
…
“But we rely mostly on the submitting organization to ensure the veracity of the scientific content of the news release; we try to exclude unreliable information providers on the front-end of our screening process,” the notice says.
“…We deeply regret that the system failed yesterday, and we appreciate the help we received from reporters who are now setting the record straight.”
The correction came after The Guardian newspaper in the U.K. published a reaction piece to the study. The paper said it had interviewed climate scientists who told them that rapid global warming at the rates projected by the study was impossible.
“2.4 C by 2020 (which is 1.4C in the next 10 years – something like six to seven times the projected rate of warming) has no basis in fact,” NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt told the newspaper in an email.
According to The Guardian, the study’s lead author Liliana Hisas, who is the UEF’s executive director, erred by overlooking how the oceans, which absorb heat, will compensate for global warming by delaying the effects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.
Hisas said she stands by her report’s findings, which have been endorsed by Nobel Prize-winning Argentine climate scientist, Osvaldo Canziani.
She said the UEF did not intend to withdraw the report.
“We are just going to go ahead with it. I don’t have a choice now,” she told The Guardian.
“The scientist I have been working with checked everything and according to him it’s not wrong.”
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full story here
UPDATE: Canziani, an IPCC Nobel prize winner oversaw the paper, see:
The Uses and Abuses of a Nobel Prize
I find it very odd that the BBC would invoke the ‘global warming’ precautionary principle, often used as the excuse for limiting anthropogenic CO2, as the means to discredit the War on Islamic Terror. Not only is the analogy entirely bogus and the claims made in the video clips false (al Qaeda is not imaginary, is seeking WMD, and will pose a dire threat if it gets them), but the BBC by all accounts is a fervent supporter of ‘global warming’ alarmism.
There’s something quite screwy about that video.
/Mr Lynn
@Donna Peters Laframboise,
Excellent article, as usual!
I’ve always loved Science. (Won’t even go into Biology…where I was introduced to Animal Behavior ‘Behaviorism’…talk about a SHOCK!)
But, I simply must say that I truly NEVER KNEW that following ‘the behavior of Scientists’ could EVER be this much fun. I’m starting to laugh already…boy, this is fun…(as long as there are TRUE Scientists around to be kinda…’watchmen on the wall’ as it were… if there weren’t….I’d be sobbing.)
I particularly enjoyed the quote: “The scientist I have been working with checked everything and according to him it’s not wrong.”
hahahaha……..oooooooohhhhhhhhh that’s a good one!!! hahahaha…pass the popcorn, puhleasse! gotta keep upright on this lil’ chair…….hahaha… I’m gonna love to read what ‘Les’ says about THIS one….hahaha….it’ll be priceless….oooohhhh….
Peter Gleick (above) claims to be a sceptic and calls ‘us’ all ‘deniers’.
His article at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/a-brief-lesson-in-the-int_b_811295.html says
“Gavin Schmidt, for example, a NASA climatologist, quickly wrote: “2.4C by 2020 (which is 1.4C in the next 10 years – something like six to seven times the projected rate of warming) has no basis in fact.’ ”
I recall Gavin had no problem with the claim that all the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035. Why this sudden change of attitude? Was he perhaps living in denial for years?
“Unfortunately, I’m sure we’ll see some media stories simply parroting the report’s conclusions, without bothering to check with climate scientists.”
Peter, why would anyone check anything with ‘climate scientists’ given their wholly unsavoury reputation for clubby exaggeration? It makes no sense. Ask for a second opinion from a geologist or a physicist capable of understanding the claims in context, not someone with the feed bag strapped around their head.
The article was written and ran because the alarmist community is filled with opportunists with partial knowledge of complex matters and confidence that no fallout will accrue for publishing blatantly, unscientific nonsense.
How’s that historical CO2/warming rate correlation working out for you?
“All scientists are, by definition, skeptics. Hence the motto of the Royal Society of London, one of the world’s oldest scientific academies (founded in 1660), Nullius in verba: ‘Take nobody’s word.’ ”
I will start by not taking yours.
Note that the original press release was sent to the AAAS site by PR firm Hoffman and Hoffman. Since when does science need a Public Relations firm?
Michael A. Lewis, Ph.D. says:
January 19, 2011 at 8:47 pm
“Since when does science need a Public Relations firm?”
Ever since the scientists became corrupted by politics and the huge sums of public money they receive off the backs of the taxpayers.
Fortunately, with the new Congress, climate science in particular may finally be in for some long overdue downsizing…
‘EurekAlert’?
Hmmm… In Scotland ‘You reek Alert’ means ‘You smell Warning’.
C’est approprier?
I’m still waiting for a convincing demonstration that the ocean bulk does in fact absorb heat (from increased Downward Longwave Radiation) from more GHGs after accounting fully for the thermal effects of increased evaporation caused by the very same GHGs.
Some warming of the ocean skin does seem to occur but the evidence is lacking as to whether the subskin warms cools or stays the same as a result.
Since evaporation and radiation both combine to cause the subskin to be cooler than the ocean bulk below then one would have thought that an increase in either would intensify the cooling of the subskin rather than warm it.
However on balance I think that the extra DLR just results in a zero effect on the ‘normal’ upward energy flow because all the DLR would be used up in enhancing the rate of evaporation and accounting for the energy deficit caused by that enhancement of evaporation by virtue of the enthalpy of vapourisation (vapourisation has a net cooling effect).
I haven’t yet seen any evidence that a DLR warmed ocean skin does actually slow down the rate of energy flow from the subskin below it.
It is often said that because the temperature gradient (from subskin to skin) changes then the rate of upward energy flow must slow down but that would not be the case if the enhanced rate of evaporation speeds up the rate of flow again to negate the expected slowdown from a decreased gradient.
I think this is a critical issue for the entire AGW construct because if the extra DLR from more GHGs cannot add to ocean heat content then only the effects on the air need be considered and that would be insignificant in the face of oceanic control of surface air temperatures.
The is an excellent example of what the sceptics have been doing. Debunking! Crazy claims are made in silly studies which are then published in newspapers and taken by many as valid. Just see numberwatch to realise how many have slipped through.
I’ve read these comments and stopped laughing.
Facts are that those who consider themselves to be ‘our handlers’ have begun to fall into a pit of their own making. We are ‘front row center’ at the opera where many have ‘ooohh’d and ahhh’d’ in tacit agreement and now…now, we know ‘the planet’ has been – had.
The point that many (myself included) should’ve understood was that ‘our handlers’ (both on the elite Left and the elite Right) are sad guys and gals of little depth. I now ask you to imagine ‘the horror’ of being born ‘them’. Never to have had the love of a parent. Hustled off to boarding schools for others to tend to them… I can’t believe it.
I am actually developing empathy for these bankrupt souls who imagine themselves ‘our handlers’.
They are not going to ‘harm’ anyone in this ‘global community’ of their making… Why?
They have ‘fear’ at the core of their beings. Soros, Clintons, Freud (Bernay’s uncle, for goodness sakes) Sanger…even each bozo at the U.N… and their ‘hits’ just akeep on comin’… Megalomaniacs. All of them. And, why? Why?
Because they want to eventually find a ‘sense of self’. Validity of Self. because guys like Prince Charles or even…Blair ~ never have the moments of trial and joy and heartache that all of us have weathered through.
They were ‘groomed’. They were never ‘allowed’ to fail or to ‘reach for the stars’. They didn’t have to scratch out a living…and eventually, all that comes with it – Character of Self.
THAT’S why ‘they’ need to think of us as ‘serfs’ ~ THAT is why ‘they’ enjoy imagining us as an aimless herd to be prodded… ‘They’ have been told that ‘they’ are ‘in control’ – therefore they must rule at any cost. For without ‘their herds’ – they have nothing. It’s pathetic.
And, this really DOES tie into this article Guys. I swear it does. It’s ‘why’ ‘they’ chose something so, so so…. grandiose as imagining that we’d ‘fall for’ Climate Change.
They’ve been playing a boring game of Monopoly combined with Risk and out of their total ignorance ~ they thought we’d fall for it. Wowie Zowie. Do any of you guys like Chess? I never was very good at it. Wanna know why? (yeah yeah Les, I can hear you already…. ‘Miss Scarlett…’ well, jus’ don’t read this, okay?! (warm smiles) But, I was never good at Chess ’cause my heart wouldn’t let me. I always placed my personality ‘into’ and imagined myself – the Queen (the only truly feminine piece on the board, so – it was not ‘ego’ that did that) and I’d go ‘off’ onto the board to DEFEND AND PROTECT the rooks, the pawns, et al. I sucked at Chess. The Queen always protected though… She always gave selflessly. That’s why Chess – sucks. It’s Character, my Scientific friends. Character ~ or, rather, sadly – the lack of it – that has turned this little globe on it’s ear. And, games such as Monopoly, Risk, & Yes, Chess ~ all ‘teach’ us that the ‘herd is expendable’…when that’s the farthest thing from the Truth there is.
Now, individuals of character are standing and joining with each other – as we all realize that our respective ‘handlers/’leaders’ are in sore need ‘intensive therapy’ and real debate will surface and men and women of integrity may again enjoy (some maybe for the first time…I’m thinkin’ China) the freedom which character alone, only – brings.
We’re gonna win this. Reason SHALL prevail…and Les needs to build that home of his. We’re all gonna be part of the GREATEST Generation this World has ever hosted. I can feel it. I truly can…and now I just ride horses for fun…no more board games for me, not ever.
C.L. Thorpe
As I pronounced at the dinner table only last night, to nods of approval, since when is a story: ‘No measurable changes to climate in the next 100 years’ going to sell any newspapers..?
I’m sure the results will still end up in the next IPCC assessment report.
When you promote a climate of hysteria, do not be surprised when hysterical people turn up on your doorstep. The AGW group is just reaping what they are sowing.
The Fundación Ecológica Universal have a web page here: http://www.feu999.org/main.htm
Canziani appears to have shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize as
a member of IPCC, but otherwise is not listed on nobelprize.org.
See eg http://www.scottlondon.com/photo/oslo2007/07.html,
where his photo is between two of Pachauri.
Does he have any scientific credentials, or is he an administrator?
Adrian Wingfield says:
January 19, 2011 at 3:40 pm
Leaving aside the minor typo, Michael (11.17am) does have a very valid point.
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I agree. There are many parallels between the war on terror and the pushing of AGW, the use of the precautionary principle in government policy formulation being a major one. The Power of Nightmares is an excellent documentary, I thank Micheal for reminding me of it and I’m watching it again now.
It is worth looking at some other aspects of this “report”, alongside the extremist warming claim. These are not so out of line with the consensus.
1. The seeking the authourity of an expert, instead of making proper validation of the numbers.
2. Ignoring Adaptation and increasing crop yields when claiming this extreme warming will lead to global hunger.
3. Ignoring the burden of government. Food prices have risen already because of growing fuel – in the name of combatting climate change. Stopping the subsidies and regulations will release a huge amount land for food.
4. Extreme position also requires extreme climate disruption. The report is at the extreme end for the droughts and floods caused by climate change.
I go into more detail at
http://manicbeancounter.wordpress.com/2011/01/20/extremist-global-warming-paper-taken-down/