Guest post by Alan Cheetham
The Union of Concerned Scientists’ (UCS) Climate Choices web site (published in 2006) says: “here in the Northeast, the climate is changing. Records show that spring is arriving earlier, summers are growing hotter, and winters are becoming warmer and less snowy. These changes are consistent with global warming, an urgent phenomenon driven by heat-trapping emissions from human activities” http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/impacts_regional/regional-impacts.html
UCS: “summers are growing hotter”. The hottest month is July – shown in the following figure. No significant long-term trend. Warmest July: 1955. Coldest July: 2000.
But they said “summer”. Again, no significant long-term trend. Warmest summer: 1949.
UCS: “spring is arriving earlier”. Spring arrives in March in the Northeast. The warmest and coldest Marches were more than 50 years ago – perhaps the climate is stabilizing.
UCS: “winters are becoming warmer and less snowy”. January is the coldest month – no significant long-term trend. Warmest January: 1932.
Winters have warmed slightly due to some very cold winters in the early 1900s. Warmest winter: 2002, second warmest: 1932.
But there is no significant winter warming over the last 80 years.
(All of the above temperature graphs are from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/nt.html)
The following table summarizes the hot and cold records for most of the states in the US Northeast region (these are the hottest / coldest days recorded – not state averages for the given years). (From http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/searchrecs.php)
(More details can be found here: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/RS_NortheastUS.htm)
What are these “concerned scientists” so concerned about? According to their mission statement: “UCS seeks a great change in humanity’s stewardship of the earth.” http://www.ucsusa.org/about/
The UCS was started in 1969 as an anti-nuclear weapon organization, but switched its focus to global warming when the Soviet Union collapsed and it became clear that large amounts of funds were available from the left-wing foundations (Pew Trusts, Joyce Foundation, MacArthur Foundation…)
For more information on the UCS see: http://www.capitalresearch.org/pubs/pdf/v1186063502.pdf
And details about their funding: http://activistcash.com/organization_financials.cfm/o/145-union-of-concerned-scientists
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I tried the temp web site too, and got this.
August 1901 – 2010 Average = 67.60 degF
August 1895 – 2010 Trend = 0.08 degF / Decade
Caroline B says:
January 6, 2011 at 9:35 am
Eric Baker is correct – small is not the same as non-significant. All the seasonal graphs show small but significant warming trends, probably because averages are being pulled up by sharp rises in the last 40 years or so. (Graph eg 1970 – 2010 against a baseline of 1900 – 1970 and see what happens – it looks a bit different).
Rising minimum (night time) temperatures are because less heat is being radiated out, exactly as expected if this were being caused by the greenhouse effect.
I’m sure Australians could tell you a story or two as well – currently they’re experiencing the worst floods on record.
Thats odd doesn`t say so here,
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/Australianfloods3.jpg
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/Ausralianfloodlevels2.jpg
And as for Tmin rising is coaused by the greenhouse effect, read this,http://www.biblioteca.org.ar/libros/90478.pdf
and this,
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/RisingTminwithpopulationgrowth.jpg
Caroline B says:
I must say I’m curious about all the urban heat island fuss here. Except in cases where there is a great deal of development going on in an urban area (i.e. changes in local heat sources), why would you think that this would affect a trend
Well, I’m far from being an expert on the subject (and I hope those with more knowledge will chime in), but here’s how I understand it:
Let’s take two thermometers. One is in the middle of your yard, the other is next to your A/C unit. It would be reasonable to expect different readings, with the one by the A/C unit to be warmer.
Now, let’s take two thermometers again, this time, both are in the middle of two fields. One, you leave alone (the control). The other, you build around, bit by bit, over a few years. Plotting the temperatures of those two, one shows a rising trend over the years, the other doesn’t. Averaging the two, you show an overall rising trend.
As I understand it, this effect has not been properly accounted for, for various reasons, such as the elimination of certain rural stations from the records, failure to accurately report the location of stations, and failure to fully account for the actual level of difference.
Most of those issues have been discussed here, which is why I know what little I do about them. The reason it’s a problem is that certain numbers have been applied to supposedly account for UHI, but without the original raw data, we don’t know how or why. It makes the numbers suspect.
There you have my simplistic understanding. Hopefully, someone else can fill in more detail, and correct where I may be wrong.
To Cassandra King.
Wherever in the ‘weird’ world you are… I sit quietly (with my WUWT coffee mug steaming at my side) honoring you and your words, my Dear.
I do so because I’m NOT ‘sexist’ (for occasionally I find women (my kind) inspirational, yet…many times we are so on a decidedly more ’emotional’ level) …but, YOUR words were words of clarity and humor AND they packed a ‘TRUTHFUL PUNCH’ which thrilled me.
Again, ‘wherever you are’ in this world…know that I whole-heartedly agree and congratulate you on your witty, eloquent prognosis! Imagine if we find that Anthony’s site draws even MORE of ‘your ilk’ around…? There will be BALANCE and there will be TRUTH and nay-sayers will get an opportunity to ‘learn’ in a non-threatening environment (at their desks, at home…wherever) from great minds such as yours.
Keep up the GREAT work, my Dear. Wowie Zowie. I’d even offer you a smoke if we were on the same continent! (Oh! p.s. guys…. Just read an article that showed how the ‘anti-smoking crowd’ began their ‘war games’ in Nazi, Germany. They began to ‘ban smoking’ because it: CALMS and it’s a ‘social’ (or…rather…’was’?) pastime…
Imagine if the pub where C.S. Lewis and his ‘mates’ hung out – wouldn’t ‘allow’ them to light up…??? BALDERDASH. It wouldn’t’ve ever happened ’cause those men WERE MEN. Even with having BHP in your baby bottles since BIRTH – I suggest that those of ‘YOUR Ilk’ are STILL AROUND and they don’t have to be ‘gunned down’ in the slums of L.A. like our ol’ hero, Clint was in that movie of his…
If we stand for what we believe in (in kindness and Truth) God surely does the rest.
And, if you ever want to know where I AM… I’ll be the one standing up OUTSIDE the pub/bar/whatever for my right to enjoy my Winfield Reds. Plain an’ Simple. It works every time. Standing in meekness (which is decidedly NOT weakness, Gentlemen)
does it every time – everywhere.
Cynthia Lauren Thorpe
Robuk, thanks for the links:
Wettest year on record in Oz:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gwlTfIMQENL0QRm6cH0EDsNMQXlw?docId=CNG.de7188d6046cd1bfcd0dfd9fb5062a9e.1a1
As for the paper about UHI in Mexico, it says 2 things:
1) UHI affects TMin more than TMax (in urban areas, obviously)
2) rapid urbanisation (i.e. changes in heat sources in cities) will affect trends
The first one says nothing whatsoever about trends in TMin, nor does it say anything about what causes high or increasing TMin in non-urban areas. What it says is that in urban areas, Tmin will be more affected than TMax by the UHI effect (so the gap between the two will be smaller).
Combining the two, the only thing you can deduce is that in cities where rapid urbanisation has taken place, there will be a rising trend in TMin during the period of urbanisation.
But: in cities with relatively stable populations/industry etc, although you would expect absolute Tmin to be higher than for nearby rural stations, there are no grounds for ascribing trends to UHI, so you have to find another explanation for them. In rural areas (like most of the South African stations), UHI is irrelevant, but rising TMin is marked, and the greenhouse effect is the best explanation.
(The authors of your study claim TMin as a portion of warming in areas where the conditions they are studying hold true, and ascribe the rest to the greenhouse effect, which is sensible).
Sky, I suppose we could argue until the cows come home about whether this is natural variation or not, and not convince each other. In SA droughts and heatwaves are historically correlated with El Nino and this is a La Nina cycle. But I’m not a climate expert, just a vaguely numerate person who is hot and bothered enough to try to find out something about the subject, and so far, AGW is pretty convincing.
I seem to remember seeing something about land reclamation projects in the Sahel fairly recently, but haven’t read anything about climate recovery – do you have a link?
No, McGregor doesn’t have a Weather SA weather station (unless they’ve put one in very recently); however, the satellite forecasts from sites like yr.no are extremely accurate (to the point that the local farmers use them in preference to local weather forecasts) and they might have a record. Some of the locals keep records of temperature, rainfall, insect swarming dates etc because we’re all starting to worry – apricot trees going into false bud in June, etc.
This is great. I love it when an environmental group masquerading as scientists keeps saying ridiculous reality-defying hings, and expecting people to believe them.
Looks more like the Union of Naked Emporers, and this recent cold weather has caused significant ‘shrinkage.’
Re: Comments on significance: It is unfortunate that the NOAA NCDC web site used to generate these graphs does not provide statistical significance information. It is also important to remember that there is also a difference between statistical significance and climatological significance. It may be statistically significant that a location has warmed by 0.5 degree over some timeframe, but it may be non-significant as far as any biological or ecological process is concerned.
As for cherry-picking, all the graphs but one show the entire data set available since 1895 to 2010 for the seasons referred to by the UCS – that can hardly be called cherry-picking. The final graph showing winter for the last 80 years is for comparison with the second-last showing winter since 1895. It illustrates two points: 1) the recent warming is not unprecedented, and 2) linear trends within cyclical data always depend on the start / end points relative to the cycle. (See: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/LinearTrends.htm exposing how the IPCC produces “acceleration” of global warming.)
Well if anybody were to present ANY of those “data graphs” to me as the results of ANY Physics Experiment, and claim that the green and or black lines in any way were representative of what is a totally noisy data stream; they are absolutely guaranteed to get an F on my grading; and that only because I never had a “G” for “Gawdawful” to hand out.
It seems like after we get rid of all the lawyers; the next in line for the soylent green factory should be the statistical mathematicians; and those that imagine themsleves to be such.
I know of signal recovery processes that can recover a signal that is 40dBV below the random noise level. But that only works for signals that are monochromatic, and have frequencies that are known with Atomic Clock accuracy, and quite often requiring knowledge of the expected time of occurence. Well you can use a multichannel analyser to look everywhere all at the same time, until you locate the signal; but good luck if the signal comes from a moving source, and has some unknown Doppler shift from the expected frequency.
So Baloney in and Baloney out.
Alexander K says: January 6, 2011 at 6:44 am
“I did some reading about this society a few months ago and found the general tone of ardent belief in nonsense on their website quite creepy. A lot of the most ardent members seem to be young female grads who are hell-bent on saving the world by any means. Why does so-called ‘higher education’ turn out so many people eager to believe in some dodgy shaman or cause?”
Clearly an application of the meme: “An idea so stupid that only an intellectual could believe it”, which is just what I expect from the Union of Confused Scientists.
Caroline B says:
January 6, 2011 at 2:11 pm
Robuk, thanks for the links:
Wettest year on record in Oz:
I’m sure Australians could tell you a story or two as well – currently they’re experiencing the worst floods on record.
You did not say the Wettest year on record in Oz, you said the WORST FLOODS ON RECORD, I said they are NOT and gave you the link to prove it, if you took note of that link you should have noticed that all the living areas of the houses are built ABOVE THE FLOOD LEVEL, they live in a flood plain, do your homework.
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/Australianfloods3.jpg
You say,
Combining the two, the only thing you can deduce is that in cities where rapid urbanisation has taken place, there will be a rising trend in TMin during the period of urbanisation.
Exactly, from the year 1900 to 2000.
Where do you think the majority of the weather stations are situated, in the urban areas of course, where did they start, in the rural areas, thats what is called urban growth, read the link. The warmers use the average of Tmin and Tmax, there is little or NO increase in Tmax therefore the majority of the warming comes from the increase in Tmin which is generated by UHI (popultion growth) it has nothing to do with CO2.
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/RisingTminwithpopulationgrowth.jpg
George E. …thanks! YOU are indeed, ONE of the ‘Gentlemen’ I was ranting about earlier this morning.
Methinks the ‘baloney makers’ of today would rather you not reproduce more of your ‘kind’…as YOUR ‘kind’ tends to make mincemeat (that means ‘hamburger’ for you Americans) of ‘their kind’.
Wish I’d’ve been in one of your classes and received a ‘G’ to remember it by.
High Fives to you, George E. You are one of the ‘others’ on this site who inspires.
C.L. Thorpe
…ambling into yet another ‘glorious day’ here in the Southeast…
Caroline B says:
January 6, 2011 at 2:11 pm
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/nEWzEALAND1900-2008.jpg
I believe New Zealand is off the coast of Australia, see where cheating gets you.
Caroline B says:
January 6, 2011 at 2:11 pm
Although fragmented, the record at Kayes in Mali (available via the GISS data site) provides a century-long view of temperatures in the Sahel. It clearly shows the cyclicality I referred to earlier.
The UCS originally put a stop to above ground nuclear weapon testing, which was causing cancers. After that they adopted every anti-tech cause out there: nuclear power, GM foods, mining, and lastly fossil fuels.
“UCS seeks a great change in humanity’s stewardship of the earth.”
Just another way to say ‘lets get rid of capitalism and free markets.’
This is no good apply maiers-law immediately.
(maiers- law states :”If the theory does not fit the data, the data must be discarded” )
Caroline B said
“So I think global warming is for real, partly because I’m reasonably able to follow the science, and partly because I’m on the sharp end of it – there is nothing theoretical about what we’re experiencing.”
—————————-
Caroline, perhaps the several degrees of warming that you believe you have experienced recently can off-set the dozens of degrees of cooling that (I think) I have endured here in western Canada.
The municipality of McGregor doesn’t appear to share your aversion to the local climate. Here’s what they say:
“Summer days are pleasantly warm although the month of February can be seriously hot. The South Easterly gales which blow in Cape Town in summer are practically non-existent here, but a comparatively light wind blows for a few hours in the afternoons, which helps to keep the village cool.
The winters are short and as the annual rainfall is only about 200mm, they are comparatively dry. There is no air pollution, and at night those who are romantic can enjoy a sight seldom seen by city-dwellers – a star-filled sky.”
I must say, it does look like a lovely spot. Thank you for making me aware of the place.
Let us all remember that the UCS are bureaucrats who do what they are told and live off of taxes. They have little concept of science other than some sort of political science.
Here is the average annual temperature for the Northeast US:
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/US_NE_An1.jpg
Climate scientists apparently only know how to calculate simple linear trends – in this case 0.7 degrees per century.
Here is another interpretation of the same data:
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/US_NE_An2.jpg
And based on a simple linear bound:
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/US_NE_An3.jpg
In this case one concludes that the climate is tending to become less extreme – similar to the seasonal plots in the original post – the summers are not hotter, the winters are slightly warmer than 100 years ago.
Always interesting to look back on temps. This is what MeatoFrance tell us today
Valeurs remarquables de janvier proche de Nice
TMax : 22.2°C (Nice le 24/01/1959)
TMin : -7.2°C (Nice le 09/01/1985)
Précip : 73.4 mm (Nice le 10/01/1994)
rg
Always interesting to look back on temps. This is what MeteoFrance tell us today
Valeurs remarquables de janvier proche de Nice
TMax : 22.2°C (Nice le 24/01/1959)
TMin : -7.2°C (Nice le 09/01/1985)
Précip : 73.4 mm (Nice le 10/01/1994)
rg
Why not give the organisation its full title.
The Union Of Concerned Scientists for the Protection of the Global Warming Scam.
I have checked some of the funders to UCS as highlighted by Alan. The first 6 I looked at all contributed to the Tides Foundation as well. There were many other coomon beneficiaries as well.
It’s like a progressive merry go round.
“”””” Cynthia Lauren Thorpe says:
January 6, 2011 at 4:20 pm
George E. …thanks! YOU are indeed, ONE of the ‘Gentlemen’ I was ranting about earlier this morning. “””””
Well thank you so much Cynthia. I figure my life will have been well lived, if I am able to inspire even one person to become an independent thinker; and not simply fall into line because it is convenient, and uncontroversial. True progress happens when unfettered minds, seek logical reasons why things aren’t the way they are supoposed to be.
George