BBC news has reported that 40,000 homes are still without water in Northern Ireland after the recent spell of freezing temperatures. Many have been without water for more than 10 days, and reservoirs are being drained due to an unprecedented number of leaks since the thaw. Calls to a few friends confirmed that, yes, it is bad – friends in Lisburn have been without water since Christmas Eve due to a frozen mains supply (i.e. not in their house); others in Belfast report low water pressure. Water is being rationed in places.
Was it really that cold? A search of the BBC site revealed “‘Baltic’ Northern Ireland” tucked away on the BBC NI news page. Castlederg in the West of the province recorded a low of -18°C on 20th December – a new record. The thing about Ireland is that it sits on the very western fringes of Europe, bathed by the warm Gulf Stream (which is why Doug Keenan considered the 7000 years of Irish tree ring data so important that he pursued Queen’s University through FOI requests). Ireland, despite its latitude, just doesn’t do ‘very cold’ (or ‘very hot’ for that matter).
When I first got interested in climate I ended up corresponding with Tonyb about the temperature records of the Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland. These stretch back to 1796. Incidentally there are a couple of WUWT posts featuring Armagh in the last year (here, here and here). How does this current cold month compare with the historical record at Armagh? Was the recent cold unprecedented?
The currently incomplete December record for Armagh consists of raw data – three automated readings per hour. Rather than waiting until they calculate the December average I looked for nearby stations on Weather Underground and found Glenanne PWS, about 15km to the SW of Armagh. The average temperatures for the two stations over the month of November is plotted in Figure 1. This gave a good linear fit (R^2 = 0.889) with an offset – Armagh being on average colder by just over 1°C.
Figure 2 shows the December data for Glenanne on the same scale. Up to the 28th December, the monthly average is -0.86°C. Mild conditions are expected for the next three days and, if I plug the forecast max/min (29th 8/6; 30th 8/4; 31st 6/2) into my spreadsheet to complete the month, the monthly average rises to an estimated -0.23°C for Glenanne, remembering that this is an approximation for Armagh, which is typically colder.
In the Armagh historical record, which I have for 1796-2002 from [1] the average temperature for December is 4.9°C; January average is colder (4.1°C). There are just two individual months colder than December 2010: January 1814 (-2.2°C) and January 1881 (-0.9°C) which puts this one as the third coldest on record at Armagh (2010 might yet tie with 1881 when the actual average for the month is published).
Coldest months according to the Armagh record:
- January 1814 -2.2°C
- January 1881 -0.9C
- December 2010 -0.2C
- February 1855 0.0C, January 1963 0.0C
- February 1895 0.2C
- February 1947 0.4C
- January 1985 0.5C, December 1878 0.5C
The list above also puts it in perspective with respect to other extreme years in living memory – most notably 1963 and 1947. According to the Armagh records none of the coldest months in these years saw such extreme cold as the Christmas period this year. The Arctic cold cut though the mild Atlantic air this year resulting in a monthly average 4-5°C below normal (Figure 3).
Even without all the warming we have been led to expect 😉 December’s cold probably can be described as unprecedented. I’ll await with interest the actual December figures for Armagh (and those from the Met Office). As for this being caused by global warming – bull – it was just an extreme weather event. They happen. Go back >100 years and they happened then too.
Reference
[1] C.J. Butler, A. M. García-Suárez, A.D.S. Coughlin and C. Morrell. Air Temperatures at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, from 1796 to 2002 Int.J.Climatol. 25: 1055-1079 (2005) [Full paper]
UPDATE – from the Daily Mail (h/t Spectator in Tips & Notes). Looks as if this will be a similar record in other parts of the UK too:
“Met Office figures show that the average temperature from December 1, the first day of winter, to December 28 was a bitter minus 0.8c (30.5f).
This equals the record December low of 1890.”
The article goes on to point out that December is rarely the coldest month in the UK and a continued cold spell could beat the record set in 1683-84 of -1.17C.
nc:
I think the answer to your problem about Canadian temperatures is answered by
Nick Barnes at Clear Climate Code.
Our Canadian government shows some antipathy to Environment Canada ( all civil sevants actually) and can’t be assumed to be truthful ( unlike that nice Mr. Blair). Leave it to an Englishman like Mr. Barnes to tell the truth.
It’s worse than they thought.
WINTER MAY BE COLDEST IN 1000 YEARS
Alchemy– it’s called weather.
BTW — always check decades old recollections against recorded temps/rain/snowfall for the time. results can be surprising.
It is interesting to note that January 1814 tops the list. Many today think of the the influence of the eruption of the giant equatorial volcanoe, Mt Tambora and the ‘Year without a summer,’ that followed, but that was in 1815-16. The fact that this has happened in December will not be great news for all people of the north on both sides of the Irish Sea!
I have transcribed the following that may bear some similarity to the current/future situation as the northern winter pans out!
“From The TIMES Archive – February 2nd 1814.
THE WEATHER
LIVERPOOL, Jan 29
The severe frost, which has continued so long, and produced such unusual inconveniences to the nation at large, and to this neighbourhood in particular, began to take its departure on Wednesday last, and has been succeeded (though not without laterutissions of returning frost) by a mild and gentle thaw. The interruptions and delays experienced by the mails have been greater than any thing of the kind before known, since the commencement of that valuable establishment. In all parts of the United Kingdom great irregularities have taken place, and in none greater than in the roads through which the mail passes from Liverpool to London.
These irregularities have necessarily caused very serious inconvenience in the commercial world, as well as great uneasiness and distress to families and individuals, in various circumstances and situations. Even the want of newspapers has been felt as no slight grievance in the present critical state of public affairs, especially to many individuals in this and other places, to whom their daily repast of public news has become almost as necessary as their daily food.
It is difficult to describe the agitation felt in this place for several days at the blowing of a horn, or any other indication of the arrival of a mail. A crowd was instantly collected, and as disappointments in this way, either from accident or design, frequently occurred, the public mind was kept in a state of constant suspense and fermentation. The general suspension of business, occasioned by the state of the weather, increased this curiosity and impatience.
But the most serious evils of this distressful month have been felt by the lower class of mechanics, whose labours, in many instances, were wholly suspended by the severity of the weather: and this calamity was greatly aggravated by the dearness of the markets, which, from the stoppage of the usual supplies, took a sudden rise in most of the necessities of life. Articles of luxury experienced a still greater advance, but this was comparatively a slight inconvenience. We have much satisfaction in stating, that public and private charity were never, we believe, more active than during this calamitous period, by which alone the extremities of distress have, in some degree, been prevented.
–
A Gentleman, who was upon the spot, informs us, that on Monday, the 24th alt. he witnessed, on the Solway Frith, a singular phenomenon. The Channel, from the English side to Scotland, was a complete body of ice, without any opening, even for a boat to pass, resembling in appearance a vast plain covered with rugged frozen snow. It extended as far to the Westward as below Workington, and presented a most singular aspect.
Upon this subject, our Maryport Correspondent also writes us as follows:- – “The Solway Frith and channel towards the Isle of Man, for a whole of last week, presented a phenomenon never before witnessed by the oldest inhabitant. While the tide was making, all to the northward of Workington seemed like a plain covered with hillocks of snow, and on the ebbing of the tide, this scene was exhibited till the eye met the horizon. On Monday last, the revenue boat, stationed at Whitehaven, made an attempt to visit Maryport, to which place it got within about a mile, when it was enveloped among innumerable lumps of ice. Some of which were from 7 to 10 feet in thickness. The boat was obliged to return to Whitehaven. The oldest seamen say they never saw such a field of ice (as they term it) but in the northern latitudes, or on the banks of Newfoundland.
The postman who goes between Penrith and Alston, it is feared, has been lost in the snow, as he has not been heard of since Tuesday evening, at which time he was seen in the village of Gamblesby, about half way from Penrith. He had two horses with him, which likewise have not been heard of.”
Some of the words were my best guess at what the newspaper copy would allow me and are as close to verbatim as I can be sure of.
Cheers
Coops.
Like some others I was a bit incredulous of claims of water mains freezing with the ranges of temperatures being reported. Here in southern Minnesota minimum cover for water mains is at least 7 feet and we still see watermains freezing, but it’s usually when temps stay below 0F for a number of continuous weeks and is likely to occur where subsequent regrading has reduced the cover over an old main. Places like Ireland would probably not have frost protection factored into their design standards, but water systems are highly stressed(80-90 psi routine pressures and 150 psi as a minimum standard they must tolerate) and even in less inclement climes require a substantial cover just to protect them from the effects of passing traffic. The temps reported may be locally exceptional but the relatively short duration of the event doesn’t seem likely to drive frost down to a level that would freeze a functioning water main, even if it only has cover sufficient to meet structural requirements.
The BBC story suggests that the leaks in the system appeared after the thaw, which indicates they may have a more serious problem than temporarily frozen mains. The expansion and contraction of soils that happen when a frost cycle occurs substantially weaken roadbeds and, if vehicles with large axle weights are allowed to travel on roads which are coming out of a frost cycle, significant deformations of the road surface can result. If the water system has marginal cover those deformations can cause the slip joints on the mains to come apart. If in fact that is what has happened they are looking at an incredible effort and expense to restore the integrity of the system.
Let’s look at the upside: If you were to pick a place on the face of the planet where a non-functioning shower or bath would cause the least inconvenience it would have to be the British Isles.
Still remember the first evening I spent in London, when my request for a shower after the long flight from Australia saw my host direct me to a shared bathroom on the communal landing. There was no shower, just an ancient tub that you filled by feeding 20p coins into a gas meter, which generated just enough lukewarm water to float the short-and-curlies left behind by previous occupants.
Of all the things the Poms do without — sunshine, good food, beaches, women who aren’t fed chip butties from infancy in order to achieve that blotched and proto-Pommy pasty complexion — a working bathroom is way down the list.
Well I dont quite live in Northern Ireland, but I can see over the border from the house, so thats close enough.
It was certainly cold! dam cold! the rivers were almost frozen over. I have a boat on the river Erne that was locked in 6″ of ice. Two older wooden boats were sunk yesterday as the ice broke up.
The last time this river froze to any degree was less then 12 months ago (although only 2″, The lakes were 7″) Previous to that was 1963 and 1947. possibly, also in the 50’s as a friend of mine tells me he remembers crossing the frozen tributary, the Annalee as a child.
An event was recorded in Irish history, where an army marched crossed the river Shannon at a place called shannon bridge on december 2nd 1602, but there was no bridge there at the time!
NK,
True, but while actually finding that data for arbitrary data points is easy (compare today to Dec. 29/85, for instance, gives a noon high at Toronto of -1.5 C yesterday vs. -5.0C on the same day 1985…somewhat meaninglessly), it is trickier to devise an average December-March temperature and total precipation for 1980-90 vs. the same for 2000-2009 for a given location.
It’s possible to do it with the data available to the public, but it would take a considerable amount of old-fashioned tabulation.
Why post about december temperatures before the month is over? You could have had real data
Instead of NASA type extrapolated temperatures!
Alchemy says: “…I’m not sure that with all the barrage, bridges and other controls on the Thames that it’s even possible for it to freeze over now.”
You may be right. I understand that a lot of changes have been made in just the past 50 years that would make it a lot less likely to freeze solid.
The BBC polar bear videos referenced above have been uploaded to youtube.
Despite some future warming alarming, it is a wonderful bit of filming.
I’ve posted the links at the original post: http://ecotretas.blogspot.com/2010/12/wonder-bear.html
Ecotretas
@Dave Wendt
Good points about the expansion and contraction of road beds. I’ve seen that suggested somewhere else today and there are now serious problems being reported elsewhere in the UK (Wales, NW England).
@Dinky Di Digger
Your perception of the showering habits in the UK is rather outdated. Either that or you need to go upmarket a bit 😉
@40 shades of green
yeah but it wouldn’t be as much fun!
@jorge & Alchemy
I have wondered that too, especially with the amount of traffic you see on the river these days. It could be hard for the water to become stratified enough that the cold top layer would freeze. I suppose in prolonged cold the whole length/depth of the river becoming sufficiently cold would allow ice to form at the surface despite the disturbance.
Vuk etc. says:
December 30, 2010 at 8:49 am
The cold now circles the N. Hemisphere, and I wonder if the Japan current now consists of an infinite loop of cold water.
“Alchemy says: “…I’m not sure that with all the barrage, bridges and other controls on the Thames that it’s even possible for it to freeze over now””
Actually, it is getting more likely now. The big heat generators that would have prevented the ice, like Battersea Power Station, have closed down. There is no industry on the Thames anymore, or in Britain for that matter, because everything is made in China. Shuffling money and financial gambling produces lots of hot air, but no heat.
Plus the many bridges may assist. The biggest asset for ice formation was the old London Bridge, which had very small arches, and greatly assisted ice formation. Lodon Bridge is long gone, but we now have dozens of bridges to form ice-floes around.
.
The Met Office, based on their warmist theory, keep saying that a cold winter in the UK is ‘1 in 20’ and so is nothing very unusual.
Three cold winters in a row is thus 1 in 8000, which means their warmist theory has a 99.9875% probability of being wrong!
Ian Cooper says:
December 30, 2010 at 2:56 pm
‘… he witnessed, on the Solway Frith, a singular phenomenon. The Channel, from the English side to Scotland, was a complete body of ice, without any opening, even for a boat to pass, resembling in appearance a vast plain covered with rugged frozen snow. It extended as far to the Westward as below Workington, and presented a most singular aspect.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1342731/Welcome-frozen-wastes–Cumbria-Freezing-sea-creates-eerie-wilderness.html
‘Magical: Two children gaze at the frozen foreshore on the Solway Firth as ice floes the size of cars wash in’
Cumbria, right now, 5.4C.
Well that makes it official. Spring has arrived early in Cumbria. Winter was cold but at only a few days long long, short.
It was bitter here in East Anglia, but not as cold as the Ulstermen got. On the other hand, this morning I sat working in my study with the window open.
rbateman says:
December 30, 2010 at 10:00 pm
Hi Robert
Not directly related but I hope it makes sense, I posted this on J Curry’s blog:
here is my closing comment for year 2010:
– No climate model is viable without including AMO and PDO events.
– De-trending is not conducted properly
– There is no understanding what the source of these events is.
– Such inadequate information is grafted into climate models as if it they were predictable variables (which is nonsense).
In this link
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CD.htm
I show true relationship between AMO and PDO (properly de-trended, on 11 year m.a. bases, hence only up to 2005), as well as, the to the climate science ‘unknown’ variable, the North Atlantic Precursor (rounded to nearest integer), which is not a function of any solar or climatic parameter. Result is either an extraordinary coincidence or alternatively one of the possible climate drivers, that the climate scientist will have to pay more attention to.
Happy New Year to all.
The N. Ireland reference to “Baltic” cold is quite humorous. In the Baltics, I’m told, they refer to severe cold snaps as “Russian” cold! And, of course, european Russians talk of “Siberian” cold. But, in Siberia, they take pride in their records, and tell you that it’s “dry” cold, just like Arizonans talk about their “dry” heat. Weather is eternally variable, daily or monthly records ate relatively short-lived stations are not all that meaningful in the climatic scheme, and human expectation of seasonal stability is often misplaced.
BTW, the Baltic Sea lies mostly below the Arctic circle, thus providing a negligible contribution to Arctic ice extent.
Dinky Di Digger says:
December 30, 2010 at 3:56 pm
“typical Aussie diatribe”
================
You’re just annoyed at England keeping The Ashes, aren’t you?
“You’re just annoyed at England keeping The Ashes, aren’t you?”
Yes!
At http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/ check the surface temperatures for Ireland at Valentia Observatory, Cork, Shannon and Dublin Airports, Casement Aero, Belfast and others in the area. All show continuing falls over the last three to four years of at least 1.4 degrees C. As many other places all over the world show the same extent of falls over the same period, I’m surprised it has not aroused more comment in the blogosphere, particularly as the warmists seem to have got so agitated over an alleged GT rise between a mere 0.7 and 1.0C over the last hundred years!. Am I missing something? Of course, I won’t hold my breath waiting for an explanation from any AGW believer.
However, a Happy New Year to all from way down under in Tasmania, Australia – the best place in the world!
Warm Winter last year in Canada? Well, we had a bad winter in Wyoming, with the last snowstorm on May 12, and every time I searched for the source of the cold air, using satellite images and surface maps, I found it pouring over that lightly guarded Canadian border east of the Rockies.
The UK official Meteorological Office site now (as at 3 January 2011) shows the final calculated December 2010 mean Central England Temperature (CET) as minus 0.7 Celsius. This makes it the coldest December since December 1890 (which was minus 0.8 celsius). As such it has been the second coldest December in the Central England record since 1659 – as far back as the instrumental record goes!.
The final mean CET temperature for the year 2010 is also shown as 8.89 celsius. This makes it the coolest year in the record since 1986.