BBC news has reported that 40,000 homes are still without water in Northern Ireland after the recent spell of freezing temperatures. Many have been without water for more than 10 days, and reservoirs are being drained due to an unprecedented number of leaks since the thaw. Calls to a few friends confirmed that, yes, it is bad – friends in Lisburn have been without water since Christmas Eve due to a frozen mains supply (i.e. not in their house); others in Belfast report low water pressure. Water is being rationed in places.
Was it really that cold? A search of the BBC site revealed “‘Baltic’ Northern Ireland” tucked away on the BBC NI news page. Castlederg in the West of the province recorded a low of -18°C on 20th December – a new record. The thing about Ireland is that it sits on the very western fringes of Europe, bathed by the warm Gulf Stream (which is why Doug Keenan considered the 7000 years of Irish tree ring data so important that he pursued Queen’s University through FOI requests). Ireland, despite its latitude, just doesn’t do ‘very cold’ (or ‘very hot’ for that matter).
When I first got interested in climate I ended up corresponding with Tonyb about the temperature records of the Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland. These stretch back to 1796. Incidentally there are a couple of WUWT posts featuring Armagh in the last year (here, here and here). How does this current cold month compare with the historical record at Armagh? Was the recent cold unprecedented?
The currently incomplete December record for Armagh consists of raw data – three automated readings per hour. Rather than waiting until they calculate the December average I looked for nearby stations on Weather Underground and found Glenanne PWS, about 15km to the SW of Armagh. The average temperatures for the two stations over the month of November is plotted in Figure 1. This gave a good linear fit (R^2 = 0.889) with an offset – Armagh being on average colder by just over 1°C.
Figure 2 shows the December data for Glenanne on the same scale. Up to the 28th December, the monthly average is -0.86°C. Mild conditions are expected for the next three days and, if I plug the forecast max/min (29th 8/6; 30th 8/4; 31st 6/2) into my spreadsheet to complete the month, the monthly average rises to an estimated -0.23°C for Glenanne, remembering that this is an approximation for Armagh, which is typically colder.
In the Armagh historical record, which I have for 1796-2002 from [1] the average temperature for December is 4.9°C; January average is colder (4.1°C). There are just two individual months colder than December 2010: January 1814 (-2.2°C) and January 1881 (-0.9°C) which puts this one as the third coldest on record at Armagh (2010 might yet tie with 1881 when the actual average for the month is published).
Coldest months according to the Armagh record:
- January 1814 -2.2°C
- January 1881 -0.9C
- December 2010 -0.2C
- February 1855 0.0C, January 1963 0.0C
- February 1895 0.2C
- February 1947 0.4C
- January 1985 0.5C, December 1878 0.5C
The list above also puts it in perspective with respect to other extreme years in living memory – most notably 1963 and 1947. According to the Armagh records none of the coldest months in these years saw such extreme cold as the Christmas period this year. The Arctic cold cut though the mild Atlantic air this year resulting in a monthly average 4-5°C below normal (Figure 3).
Even without all the warming we have been led to expect 😉 December’s cold probably can be described as unprecedented. I’ll await with interest the actual December figures for Armagh (and those from the Met Office). As for this being caused by global warming – bull – it was just an extreme weather event. They happen. Go back >100 years and they happened then too.
Reference
[1] C.J. Butler, A. M. García-Suárez, A.D.S. Coughlin and C. Morrell. Air Temperatures at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, from 1796 to 2002 Int.J.Climatol. 25: 1055-1079 (2005) [Full paper]
UPDATE – from the Daily Mail (h/t Spectator in Tips & Notes). Looks as if this will be a similar record in other parts of the UK too:
“Met Office figures show that the average temperature from December 1, the first day of winter, to December 28 was a bitter minus 0.8c (30.5f).
This equals the record December low of 1890.”
The article goes on to point out that December is rarely the coldest month in the UK and a continued cold spell could beat the record set in 1683-84 of -1.17C.
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Winter may be coldest in 1000 years
Could the Thames freeze over in January/February?
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/169577/Winter-may-be-coldest-in-1000-years/
Merrick says:
December 30, 2010 at 4:48 am
> Since when is December 1 the first day of Winter?
Since a long time. It’s widely used as the start of meteorological winter. The winter solstice is the start of astronomical winter.
You’ll often see weather and climate data grouped in three month periods, e.g. DJF for winter, MAM for spring, etc. Sometimes the in between three month periods are used as cheap smoothing, e.g. JFM and FMA.
CBC just announced the top weather stories for 2010 for Canada.
First was the Olympics. You know it’s unusually warm when snow has to be trucked to the Rockies in February.
Second was Hurricane Igor. Even in a season with more numerous Atlantic hurricanes , such a late season storm is unusual. Even weirder: it hit Newfoundland as a hurricane.
Third was the unusally warm year across Canada. A mild winter was followed by a warm spring and a hot summer. All above normal.
If, as PM says above, that the Baltic Sea is freezing early, why does the artic sea ice show a decrease over prior years? (see the sea ice link on this page). There is a step decrease, perhaps an instument error?
Sorry about the misattribution in my previous comment. My computer is doing all sorts of weird things today;quite frustrating.
Yet another reason why we should vote the bums out of office. The greenies have created a nightmare if this cold snap turns into a trend. Ultra-low diesel will be mandated in ALL vehicles by 2014. Let’s see if an old John Deer can run on jello.
http://www.forconstructionpros.com/online/Construction-News/Study-Blames-Ultra-Low-Sulfur-Diesel-for-Failed-Construction-Vehicle-Fuel-Filters/4FCP4821
Re: BBC polar bear programme
Very good programme – I loved every minute. The only sly bit of agitprop went something like this:
“… the mother has raised her cubs for what she knows could be increasingly ice-free conditions…”
Other than that it was good. Great close-up footage.
Right now: Belfast 5C, London 7C.
Ric: meterological winter – new one on me. Winter starts December 21st for Environment Canada.
J from Canada
Consider long term investment to the west of Hudson Bay. The Hudson Bay’s leg of the Arctic magnetic field is fading out, the Siberian one is getting stronger. Polar vortex tends to move away from the geographic pole towards magnetic. Siberian winters are going to get really nasty, while Canada can look forward to the new age of prosperity due to its winters getting less severe.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/MF.htm
Vuk etc. says:
December 30, 2010 at 10:09 am
A analysis of the southern hemisphere would be welcomed too.
Coldest December?
I think I have discovered the source of the recent extreme cold weather here in Michigan and around the Country.
I think it has something to do with the sports prediction that the Detroit Lions would win three games in a row when Hell freezes over.
;>P
Happy Holidays from this M4GW (Mighigander 4 Global Warming)
For the CET record , Dec 2010 will be in the top 10. It looks like we will miss out on the ultra rare <0C month, last seen in 1890.
J the Olympics where held in the Coast Mtn. range not the Rockies.
Eleven hurricanes have hit Newfoundland since 1775, 1775, 1866, 1873, 1886, 1891, 1893, 1939, 1958, 1995, 2000, 2002. Igor number 12.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Newfoundland_hurricanes
As for Canada’s mild winter just how accurate the temperature record is the question- http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/23/government-report-canadian-climate-data-quality-disturbing/
The CBC, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation is our version of the BBC.
theBuckWheat says:
December 30, 2010 at 7:08 am
One really nice thing about looking at past freezings is that it removes thermometer uncertainties – questions about the quality of 18th and 19th century thermometers or about observation times and errors of 20th century reports and later changes.
Of course, it still leaves in problems regional changes (e.g. London Bridge vs the Thames ice fairs) and conditions (e.g. snow cover for the season and other weather variability). That something watery froze is proof the temperature got below freezing, whether it happened 100 minutes, 100 years or 100 millennia ago.
It weather, but I am on Phoenix visiting relatives. It’s COLD. To get a hard freeze tonight. Snow level is about 2500 feet. Road from Sedona to Flagstaff is closed. I-17 from Flagstaff to Phoenix is closed. There are avalanche warnings posted for San Francisco Peak.
Freeze warnings extend from Phoenix East to the California line and South to the Mexican border.
Oops, meant West to the California line.
des332 says:
December 30, 2010 at 3:33 am
the Guardian only has around 300,000 – 100,000 (down from 10 years ago).
Pretty soon we won’t have the Guardian to kick around anymore.
The owners of the Guardian keep it going, they can do this as they also own …er.. Auto Trader. Buying and selling motors. Weird, eh?
>> Gary
>> If, as PM says above, that the Baltic Sea is freezing early, why does the
>>artic sea ice show a decrease over prior years?
Just guessing, but I presume more cold air heading south means more warm air heading north. But the flip-side will be the albedo. All that white stuff a long way further south than normal must make a huge difference to the insolation, especially in the spring. Last year, the snow on the Scottish peaks lasted until July-August.
.
.
John McManus says:
December 30, 2010 at 9:55 am
> Ric: meterological winter – new one on me. Winter starts December 21st for Environment Canada.
EC says “Autumn (Sept, Oct, Nov) 2010” at
http://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=A49944AE-1
Toasty up there north of Hudson’s Bay, but we knew that.
@ur momisugly John McManus says:
December 30, 2010 at 9:55 am
Right now: Belfast 5C, London 7C.
Right now: Pittsburgh, 3C (38F) …and this is only the second day since Thanksgiving we’ve been above freezing.
Cold is a matter of perspective, I guess. :))
Pamela Gray says:
December 30, 2010 at 6:31 am
Right on, Pamela. That translates directly into investment advice. Invest in tar, feathers, and rails.
Don Easterbrook says:
December 30, 2010 at 1:13 am
It’s interesting to note that each of this records occurred during cool periods—coincidence?
1.January 1814 -2.2°C [1790-1820 cool period]
2.January 1881 -0.9C [1880-1915 cool period]
3.December 2010 -0.2C [1999-? cool period]
4.February 1855 0.0C, [1840-? cool period]
January 1963 0.0C [1945-1977 cool period]
5.February 1895 0.2C [1880-1915 cool period]
6.February 1947 0.4C [1945-1977 cool period]
7.January 1985 0.5C, [1945-1977 cool period]
December 1878 0.5C [1880-1915 cool period]
The list above also puts it in perspective with respect to other extreme years in living memory – most notably 1963 and 1947 [1945-1977 cool period]
Two points:
1. You keep referring to 1999-2010 as a cool period. Yet, according to the UAH satellite data, the last 10 years has been the warmest decade on record and 2010 the warmest year of that decade. Not forgetting that the trend for the 1999-2010 period is positive.
2. I’m not sure January 1985 belongs to the 1945-77 “cool period”.
Frozen Europe may be newsworthy, but it’s still a bit parochial.
Forecast for tomorrow in Toronto, Canada is 8C and New Year’s Day may be the hottest ever recorded with 11C (previous record was 9C) quite likely.
There is what I would call “a dusting” on the ground at the moment here at 44 N./79W. It’s what the English call “an airport closing”, to judge by the laughable sights the news has had for a week now. That’s 100 guys with shovels snow, not “call in the army” snow.
Nonetheless, I would say that the winters here have distinctly changed since around 1990. They are either colder with less snow, or warmer with less rain. The lake levels have toyed with low points last seen in the ’30s and the ’60s, so I can’t call it unusual, merely notable in a century-long context. Last winter was unusually snowy…for those who can’t recall prior to the ’90s…but was not particularly harsh by 1980s standards. This year has been as dry as any other of the last 20, but north of here, unfrozen Great Lakes combined with strong NW winds have produced significant snow events called locally “lake effect snow”. If the lakes freeze over, as they did in the past, you can’t get moisture from them to the same extent.
There are fewer days, however, where the record high temperatures at Toronto aren’t from the ’90s forward. Heat island effect? Possibly. The two meterological stations of record are at a small airport down by the (moderating) lake and at the international airport to the northwest. Neither are leafy glades.
So from the viewpoint of 40 years of noticing the local weather, there are changes. Spring starts earlier and fall later. Winter isn’t nearly as dire (although seemingly windier) as it once seemed. It is, however, quite variable. It’s now common to have green Christmases, green New Year’s Days, and a lack of snow on the ground that persists well into January. That part is relatively (15-20 years) quite different from the past.
Take from it what you will.
Re: Thames freezing over.
If the Thames froze over for a month this February, I wouldn’t give it much creedence. Were it to freeze over each February until 2020, that’s a climate trend I can believe.
I’m not sure that with all the barrage, bridges and other controls on the Thames that it’s even possible for it to freeze over now. I would imagine its use as a source of cooling water for industry means there’s a lot of warm water circulating back into it that would have some effect not present in Tudor/Stuart times when people used to hold fairs and run braziers to cook ye olde stickmeats, etc.
Kay:
Is that American thanksgiving or Canadian thanksgiving?
Nova Scotia has been mild, probably less than 10 days below freezing since thanksgiving ( Cdn). Great for us but this would be cold for Costa Rica. You are correct: cold is relative.
Ric:
When I googled US weather service first day of winter, I got Dec. 21 the same answer as I got from googling Environment Canada.
I suspect that Dec 1 ( or 5 from another source) is a convenient popular convention and Dec.21 is correct scientifically.