Sea Ice News #32 – Southern Comfort

I’ve been remiss at posting regular entries of this feature, and there hasn’t been much happening on the way to peak Arctic Ice this year. The action seems mostly down south, and there’s a lot of news from NSIDC that you haven’t heard about.

Per the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomaly for November was a record high for their data set:

Source: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu//DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Nov/S_11_plot.png

November’s record high Antarctic Sea Ice Area of 16.90 Million Sq Km, exceeded the prior record of 16.76 Million Sq Km (Set in November 2005), by 140,000 Square Kilometers. See here:

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Nov/S_11_area.txt

Oddly, they have a plot for extent, and a data file for area, but no plot for area or data for extent. I meant to say: Oddly, they have a plot for extent, and a data file for area, but no plot for area or data file for extent. They do have both data included in the file named “area.txt”. Seems backwards, doesn’t it?

The NSIDC plot certainly shows a lot of growth in November around the periphery of the sea ice pack in November:

Source: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Nov/S_11_trnd.png

I find it interesting that the (NSIDC) National Snow & Ice Data Center doesn’t find it newsworthy to mention this record high Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomaly in their December 6th press release:

They certainly could have included this information, since their FTP folder had NH data posted three days prior to the December 6th press release:

And the SH data also, with the same time stamp:

But this comes as no surprise considering that they glossed over the other record highs that occurred this year in,

June:

Source: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu//DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Jun/S_06_plot.png

Data: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu//DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Jun/S_06_area.txt

July:

Source: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu//DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Jul/S_07_plot.png

Data: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu//DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Jul/S_07_area.txt

August:

Source: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu//DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Aug/S_08_plot.png

Data: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu//DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Aug/S_08_area.txt

It is apparent that Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is currently maintaining above average;

But, with such good news, I wonder why NSIDC and others aren’t providing more information to the public on this interesting phenomenon. I know these new record highs aren’t as interesting or as likely to generate news stories as “death spiral watch”, but perhaps in their next press NSIDC release they will at least recognize the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice for the simple fact that it has hit record highs?

We are constantly told that NSIDC is all about the science, and we are just “breathtakingly ignorant” (to quote NSIDC’s Dr. Mark Serreze), so I’m sure this press release reporting on only one half of the planet’s icecap’s is just an oversight on their part. I’m sure NSIDC will want to show that their mission truly is “global” and talk about the gains in Antarctica when they write up their year end review which will be seen by hundreds of journalists.

They seem to have interest in the minuscule (compared to the whole continent) Antarctic Peninsula ice loss, but not so much the main continent gains.

Antarctica is by far the largest mass of ice on Earth, containing approximately 90% of the world’s supply. By contrast, the Arctic and glaciers make up the remainder, yet they get all the facetime.

The fact that Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica is trending up and has been regularly hitting record highs in 2010 should give any rational person a moment’s pause. It might even provide the basis for some healthy skepticism of the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Narrative.

Oh, and for the few worrywarts who frequent here, who will howl mercilessly that I didn’t show the Arctic Sea Ice trend, here’s your North and South trends together:

 

Cryosphere Today – extent 15% or greater – click to enlarge

 

Cryosphere Today – Antarctic Sea Ice anomaly – click to enlarge

Of course all the graphs and imagery that I didn’t cover here is available 24/7/365 on the WUWT sea ice page, which I recommend you visit.

h/t to WUWT reader “Just the facts” for pointing out the ftp data which has remained buried and out of view of NSIDC’s main public relations page.

November's record high Sea Ice Extent of 16.90 Million Sq Km, exceeded the prior record of 16.76 Million Sq Km (Set in November 2005), by 140,000 Square Kilometers:
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R. Gates
December 21, 2010 5:50 pm

vukcevic says:
December 21, 2010 at 2:11 pm
“So conclusion is the Arctic ice extent (depth and area), assuming constant insolation (as Dr.S. tells us to be so) from year to year is to the greatest degree a winter factor.”
______
I hate to disagree with you on this, but the data simply doesn’t support your conclusion. In looking at the following chart, from 1900, you’ll see that the greatest precentage declines in the arctic on a seasonalized basis are summer, followed by fall, then spring, and finally winter. Winter shows the least effect in extent decline on a percentage seasonal basis.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seasonal.extent.1900-2007.jpg
Late in the summer when solar insolation is decreasing rapidly once more, the air temperature often falls to near freezing across the Arctic but the water is warmer and so the ice will continue to melt from the bottom and sides in the water. The continued residual heat from the water will prevent ice freezing up as fast in the fall, and thus, fall has shown the second greatest percentage declines in arctic sea ice extent. More open WATER, lasting longer into the fall and with more stored heat is a key dynamic in Arctic sea ice decline.

R. Gates
December 21, 2010 6:08 pm

E.M.Smith says:
December 21, 2010 at 4:11 pm
“O. M. G. Can you really have that little clue about how the weather works out here on the West Coast? We look NORTH WEST into the NORTH EAST part of the Pacific to know what’s coming our way. ”
____
Undoubtedly CA often does get its weather from the NW pacific, but not in the case of these past few storms. They are right from the Central Pacific near Hawaii and before that, from the Western Pacific where there is a large pool of warmer than normal water. It’s commonly called the “Pineapple Express”, (really part of the MJO Osciallation) and you can trace that band of “express” clouds right to Hawaii in this satellite image:
http://tiny.cc/pa3xu
Sorry E.M., but you are the one who is greatly mistaken in this case. You don’t get this kind of moisture hitting CA from storms born in the Northern Pacific– there simply isn’t enough energy (i.e. heat) in the water or atmosphere to support carrying that kind of moisture…you need to head south several thousand miles closer to the equator to get that kind of energy…closer to where “pineapples” grow…
If you want to learn more about the MJO Oscillation (so you can speak more knowledgably in the future) you might want to start here:
http://www.almanac.com/content/teleconnections-and-oscillations

E.M.Smith
Editor
December 21, 2010 6:56 pm

R. Gates says:
Undoubtedly CA often does get its weather from the NW pacific, but not in the case of these past few storms. They are right from the Central Pacific near Hawaii

Nice try at a dodge, but in case you didn’t notice, the Central Pacific is NOT in that “warm pool” you referenced. It’s at -0.5 C on that SST map that you clearly ignored.
Here, try again: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
Your “cloud band” then passes over that -2 C before it whacks into Baja Calfornia. That’s in Mexico. California is the bit above it. You can tell by the water that separates Baja from California… Southern California is getting some of it. Northern California is the part being clobbered by those clouds from further north. If you look further North and West (into the North East Pacific near the Gulf of Alaska) you will see other storms lining up. We’re expecting a sequence of storms in coming days, and those are they.
Look on the weather map here:
http://www.accuweather.com/maps-surface.asp
And you will see the fronts stacked up going out to sea, NORTH and East.
It’s commonly called the “Pineapple Express”, (really part of the MJO Osciallation) and you can trace that band of “express” clouds right to Hawaii in this satellite image:
And as that wind comes in, it gets a ‘belly’ in it (that droop in the middle) that pulls the lows down from Alaska into the rest of the state. San Diego may be getting a Pineapple Express, but San Franciso is getting a Cold Alaskan.
Sorry Charley, this is NO Pineapple Express in North Cal. They are warm rain, this is not. I’ve lived here over 35 years in the same place. I’ve been through a Pineapple Express or two. This aint it. And your MJO Oscillation is a WATER movement, not a storm nor wind direction change. But you get a point for trying.
BTW, Accuweather has the origin of the southern part as being:
The plume of moisture that had origins around the Dateline to the southwest of Hawaii (there even has been a tropical storm out in that area) has fed this deluge from day one.
Southwest is in the tail of that cold spike, not in your warm pool. So even the So.Cal / Mexico Pineapple Express part is coming out of cold source water, not the North West warm pool.
So even that So. Cal / Mexico part is not working for your model.
http://tiny.cc/pa3xu

Sorry E.M., but you are the one who is greatly mistaken in this case. You don’t get this kind of moisture hitting CA from storms born in the Northern Pacific

Clearly you’ve never lived here (or if you have, don’t get out much). Tell you what, go watch the stormy episodes of “Dangerous Catch” (or whatever it’s called) in the Gulf of Alaska. Then tell me those storms don’t have enough energy.
A Pineapple Express tends to be a fairly gentle storm. Long, persistent, lots of rain. But it is slow and warm and, well, pleasant, in an overly wet kind of way. The ones from Alaska are angry storms. Harsh. Windy. Cold. Sometimes with buckets of cold cold rain. We’re getting them on that chain of fronts coming from Alaska…
This map shows the nice chain of lows running toward me…
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
It’s the far colder “sink” in the center of the continent that is powering this beast. The “cold end” of the heat engine is colder.

Roger Knights
December 21, 2010 7:04 pm

It might even provide the basis for some healthy skepticism of the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Narrative.

How about referring to it hereafter as:
Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alarmism
And:
The CACA Cult?

Roger Knights
December 21, 2010 7:07 pm

Shevva says:
December 21, 2010 at 5:13 am
My dad has the same problem at the bar as warmists with news like this, selected hearing.

“The ears have walls.”

E.M.Smith
Editor
December 21, 2010 7:22 pm

Ooh, sometimes you find some cool stuff…
Here’s a ‘wave map’ of the Pacific ocean showing wave height and direction (From Alutians to San Franciso):
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/NPAC-Eastern/WAVE000.GIF
It’s just a cool thing to find…

December 21, 2010 7:31 pm

Luis Dias says: (December 21, 2010 at 5:06 am) So, in simplistic terms, more warming should contribute…
simplistic = characterized by extreme and often misleading simplicity
simple = elementary: easy and not involved or complicated

E.M.Smith
Editor
December 21, 2010 7:54 pm

Probably not the best wind map available, but it’s good enough. If you look on this one:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/OPC_PAC.gif
You can see the wind barbs showing the air blowing from the North East Pacific and running into that front from Hawaii when they turn and head ashore, about where I am… The “wind barb” has the wind going from the end with the “feathers” on it toward the round dot end.
This one:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/USA_West.gif
Shows where the stationary front runs ashore about the Mexico border as I’m typing. Below that point is getting the Hawaiian air. Above it a ways gets the North Pacific air. Where the two meet, at the front, gets a mix. As it ploughs into the Coast Range mountains and then the Sierra Nevada Mountains, things become more turbulent.
And these guys have a neat animated loop, but you have to click on the “wind” tab as I’ve not figured out how to save a copy or link directly to the animation. It shows the winds coming out of Alaska and landing on me…
http://www.stormsurf.com/
Though by about 27 December we start to get a little wind moving back north along the coast. (Though, by then, I expect this batch of rain will be done).

savethesharks
December 21, 2010 8:02 pm

R Gates it is not the “MJO Oscillation”. Redundant.
The MJO is what it is called.
It is a 40-day wave that creeps across the globe in the tropical regions determining large-scale patterns of atmospheric upward motion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden–Julian_oscillation
Also…the pineapple express aka the active subtropical jet….is shown on the plume of moisture fire-hosing its way into the Cali /Mex border.
http://www.intelliweather.net/imagery/intelliweather/sat_goes10fd_580x580_img.htm
It may have had some “some” influence on the precip feed coming into Cali over the last week, but there is no way it was pure because there would have never EVER been such magnanimous snow totals (even for Sierra standards).
The negative PNA allowed for a flatter ridge over the intermountain west, while wisps of Arctic air from the extreme cold that is building over Alaska, helped contribute to enough cold air advection (even if only marginally), for the Sierra (and parts of the southern Cascades) to get dumped on.
They would not have racked up nearly such incredible snow totals if it was a pure subtropical feed of air.
Meanwhile, in Alaska, he forecast high for Fairbanks on Thursday, just two days into the NH winter, is a balmy -30 F.
By evidence of all the cold air “popcorn” convection over the Pacific west of the USA and Canada, that alone should give you a clue of the large scale cold air mass present.
Finally, I leave you with the ODOT webcam of US 26 around Mt. Hood, at 4000 feet.
There is DEEP snowcover, and Pacific Polar air in place, as has been for days:
http://www.tripcheck.com/Pages/CCview.asp?Num=1&cam1=624
The Pineapple Express, this is not!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

AusieDan
December 21, 2010 8:29 pm

EM Smith
Here in Australia, it’s also dry when it’s hot and wet when it’s cold.
Right now, it’s both (relatively) cold and (quite) wet (floods everywhere).
We’ve even had some snow on the mountains.
WUWT you may ask?
Well, it is supposed to be summertime here in the south.
I hasten to say however, that while snow in summer is very unusual, it is not strange or unpreceedented.
We’ve had this type of climate (strike that out) weather (that’s better) before.
It comes every 60 or so years with the change of the cycle from hot to cold.
It just looks exceptional to those too young to have had much experience with climate, but have been let loose to run the ship without due supervision.

tokyoboy
December 21, 2010 8:32 pm

In a field where no control experiment is possible, and worse, where only a tiny fraction of driving factors is known, a “researcher” can say anything, anytime, anywhere, and to any audience.

R. Gates
December 21, 2010 9:07 pm

To E.M. Smith, savethesharks, et. al.
The current heavy precip event in CA is pretty much a classic MJO event. This moisture did not come from the Arctic or the NE Pacific, but is a sub-tropical event, with its origins clearly in the warmer waters of the of the sub-tropical Pacific Ocean. MJO events are more common in La Nina years than El Nino years, with the last big MJO event being during the strong La Nina of 2008. For a nice summary of the MJO, I would recommend:
http://wwa.colorado.edu/IWCS/archive/IWCS_2008_May_focus.pdf
Of course this sub-tropical moisture will turn to snow at higher elevations of the mountains of CA. It’s winter!

E.M.Smith
Editor
December 21, 2010 9:12 pm

I’ve put up an archival set of all the images and weather maps from the above discussion along with links to the live ones at:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/21/california-weather-now/
just to save a lot of clicking and so that anyone reading this tomorrow can see what the images were now…

Pamela Gray
December 21, 2010 9:18 pm

The winter sea ice conditions in the Arctic and Antarctic are far more controlled by natural drivers than at any other time of the year. Both poles have atmospheric oscillations. Learn how they work, and apply reasoned hypotheses. You will discover much. I linked to very good discussions in a previous comment above. Looks like many folks here need to read up.
Gates, your indirect assumption as to the origin of the Western Pacific warm pool is interesting. Please tell me more.

R. Gates
December 21, 2010 9:32 pm

E.M.,
Thanks for that handy link, but everyone should be aware that though the subtropical jet is NOW (as of Tuesday evening, Dec. 21) over Baja, it was this subtropical jet that was the main source of the first batch of moisture that brought all the rain and snow to CA over this previous weekend when it (the subtropical jet) was directly over southern CA.

AndyW
December 21, 2010 9:53 pm

I think the Arctic is far more interesting than the Antarctic at the moment, the Antarctic is average for the time of year on most graphs and the NSIDC graph is heading towards it now, meanwhile the Arctic is well below the average, mainly due to low ice in Hudson bay probably caused by warm anomalies linked to the AO at the moment.
Perhaps NSIDC posts up more about the Arctic because most of their readers are closer to it and they find it more interesting? They certainly don’t seem to flip between the two depending on which is low or high at any point to force a message, well as far as I can tell.
Andy

savethesharks
December 21, 2010 10:08 pm

R. Gates says:
December 21, 2010 at 9:32 pm
E.M.,
Thanks for that handy link, but everyone should be aware that though the subtropical jet is NOW (as of Tuesday evening, Dec. 21) over Baja, it was this subtropical jet that was the main source of the first batch of moisture that brought all the rain and snow to CA over this previous weekend when it (the subtropical jet) was directly over southern CA.
====================
R you borrow and steal terms you never knew before and then make them your own.
Recalls the “AGW models” we used to incessantly hear from you until you finally understood they were called “GCMs” maybe called Global Climate Models (but more likely called “General Circulation Models”).
Sort of like the MJO “Oscillation” which you have also been heretofore corrected.
In any event you as the good chameleon you are this is the first time in history you are referring to this thing as the “subtropical jet.”
Haha I am (and have been for a long time) on to your game.
What you don’t understand is that a deep subtropical flow AT ALL LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE would produce a green Christmas at Government Camp.
And it won’t be green. Maybe slushy with snow up at Timberline, but not green.
A pineapple express this ain’t.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Chris Noble
December 21, 2010 10:13 pm

I find it interesting that the (NSIDC) National Snow & Ice Data Center doesn’t find it newsworthy to mention this record high Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomaly in their December 6th press release:
The monthly update is titled “Arctic Sea Ice News”. Why are you surprised that it does not mention what is happening in the Antarctic?

savethesharks
December 21, 2010 10:21 pm

Sorry I steered the vehicle across an icy snow-road and contributed to this thread’s derailing.
Meanwhile back to the southern comfort of above normal SH Sea Ice….
Interesting show I saw tonight on NOVA which featured Arctic dinosaurs (they mentioned some Antarctic ones too) .
One quote (and this was from public television, folks) mentioned how the warm period 230 million years ago was even warmer than the one 70 million years ago and accordingly “an explosion of life and diversity almost never known occurred on the planet.”
Wow….such scary, horrible global warming.
Why the hell indeed, should we fear that global sea ice is just a hair below normal???
We shouldn’t. We should wish that there was less.
Fear the cold, and not the warm.
On the other hand…with good hydrocarbon and nuclear energy supplies [f*** song-bird destroying wind-farms!], I think the cold makes us stronger and selective as a species…so I am torn.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

barry
December 21, 2010 11:00 pm

I find it interesting that the (NSIDC) National Snow & Ice Data Center doesn’t find it newsworthy to mention this record high Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomaly in their December 6th press release

You link to their page on Arctic sea ice.
It’s not hard to understand why more effort is devoted to a web page on Arctic sea ice. Firstly, the are is surrounded by land – a lot of people live in or near the Arctic circle. The region is an important shipping area. Antarctic sea ice is far from inhabited areas and doesn’t interfere with shipping lanes. There is much more public interest – setting aside the climate change issue – in the Arctic.
Also, Northern Hemispheric sea ice trends are much more dramatic than Southern Hemisphere, which has changed little over the satellite period. In this regard also, record extent anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere don’t impact.
The small growth in Antarctic sea ice over the last 30 years is not significant. For climate controversarians, short-term increases in sea ice there have been predicted in the scientific literature – so it makes no impact on the great climate change debate (except as an uninvestigated, hot button talking point).
Antarctic sea ice doesn’t affect many people’s lives, not like it does in the Northern Hemisphere (fishing, freight etc). It’s reasonable for NSIDC to cover that area in more detail publicly. Antarctic sea ice only excites climate ‘skeptics’ with an axe to grind.
REPLY: Yeah sure, that’s why NSIDC sends Dr. Ted Scambo down there on a special mission to study ice. They called for volunteers at the last staff meeting and said “who wants to do a mission nobody gives a rats ass about”?
That “doesn’t affect people’s lives” meme is why some folks are getting freaked out about the WA, and the ice shelves, and writing stories like this one, ignoring the fact that the rest of the continent is growing in ice volume. That one area losing ice on the peninsula is crawling with scientists, because ” Antarctic sea ice only excites climate ‘skeptics’ with an axe to grind.”
Yeah, sure, that’s the ticket. Heh. What a lost before you wrote it argument. – Anthony

Michael Schaefer
December 21, 2010 11:36 pm

Arctic decline, Antarctic growth, whatever: It’s frigging cold and snowy over here in Germany – resembling Russia more than central Europe, actually.
Once I have been a believer in AGW, too. But as soon as I stopped believing and started checking the facts and connecting the dots myself, AGW vanished like a ghost at dawn.
Welcome to a cold, new world.

barry
December 22, 2010 12:31 am

That “doesn’t affect people’s lives” meme is why some folks are getting freaked out about the WA, and the ice shelves, and writing stories like this one, ignoring the fact that the rest of the continent is growing in ice volume.

None of those topics are sea ice topics. You elided my quote, which was specifically about sea ice.
The fact is, Antarctic sea ice has no direct impact on people’s lives and livelihoods. There are no indigenous human populations in the Antarctic, no consequences for shipping, no impact on weather patterns for even the nearest populated regions (Tasmania, Southern South America) – none of the day-to-day stuff that people living in or near the Arctic are affected by as Arctic sea-ice changes, seasonally and over the long-term.
Of course, the Antarctic holds ecological and climate interest. Antarctic sea ice has changed little over the last 30 years. The trend is up, but insignificant, as are monthly anomalies (November increase of 0.6% per decade is smaller than the uncertainty). Record high anomalies on this subject only energize climate skeptics who are more interested in a talking point than a sober examination of the issue. Increased Antarctic sea-ice in the short-term has been predicted in the literature. Recent record anomalies on the high side don’t make much of a story except to the small number of people bent on pouncing on every scrap they believe fortifies their position.
IOW, you’re making a mountain out of a molehill.
REPLY: Well then if it’s so insignificant, why even have NSIDC report on it on their website, or send experts there? The argument is that NSDIC should report on significant events, for both poles, and these were significant in the record, wishing them away won’t make them any less of a record. And, the issue is truly global, not unipolar. You can’t have it both ways, sorry but you lose the argument. – Anthony

December 22, 2010 3:35 am

R. Gates says:
December 21, 2010 at 5:50 pm
………………
Graph you refer to confirms the point I made. Less ice created in the winter (and it is not only the area but depth of the ice has to be taken into account), ice free area will increase not linearly but exponentially.
Further matter you should know is that proportion of ice reaching Denmark Strait last summer was created some 10 years ago in the Beaufort Sea, or 3-4 years ago in Kara and Laptev seas.
Direct Winter / Summer ice area comparison is not a liner function and also above mention time shift has to be taken into account. I have no numbers to show these proportions, but the fundamentals of the above are well known.

barry
December 22, 2010 5:23 am

REPLY: Well then if it’s so insignificant, why even have NSIDC report on it on their website, or send experts there?

You keep conflating ideas. There is plenty of scientific interest in the Antarctic. In terms of what directly affects the public (like the part of the US that is in or connected to the Arctic – it’s the US National Snow and Ice Data Center after all), the Antarctic is a long way from home. It’s also less studied than the Arctic – it’s the most remote continent on Earth and it’s harder to supply teams there.
In terms of climate, Antarctic
sea ice shows no significant trend. Other parts of the Antarctic, like the peninsula, which lies beyond the polar winds that keep the region somewhat thermally isolated from the rest of the planet, are showing more significant trends, and these are commented on.
The focus on the North is is not a political decision. It’s geography, and in terms of sea ice, the fact that there is a remarkable trend there, unlike in the South.
NSIDC explain:

Why don’t I hear much about Antarctic sea ice?
NSIDC scientists do monitor sea ice in the Antarctic, and sea ice in the Antarctic is of interest to scientists worldwide. While many have published peer-reviewed journal articles on the topic, it has received less attention than the Arctic. There are several reasons for this.
Unlike Arctic sea ice, Antarctic sea ice disappears almost completely during the summer, and has since scientists have studied it. Earth’s climate system over thousands of years has been “in tune” with this annual summertime disappearance of Antarctic sea ice. However, satellite records and pre-satellite records indicate that the Arctic has not been free of summertime sea ice for at least 5,500 years and possibly for 125,000 years. So Earth’s climate system and ecosystems, as they exist today, did not develop in conjunction with an ice-free Arctic. Such an ice-free Arctic summer environment would be a change unprecedented in modern human history and could have ramifications for climate around the world.

They go on:

Is wintertime Antarctic sea ice increasing or decreasing?
Wintertime Antarctic sea ice is increasing at a small rate and with substantial natural year-to-year variability in the time series. While Antarctic sea ice reached a near-record-high annual minimum in March 2008, this does not indicate a significant long-term trend. To borrow an analogy from sports, one high day, month, or even year of sea ice is no more significant than one early-season win would be in predicting whether the hometown team will win the Super Bowl ten seasons from now.

Antarctic summer trend is smaller than the uncertainty – ie, there is no statistical significance for the apparent upward trend – slope=4.0 (+/-4.6)% per decade. Even if the trend were significant, it would have little to no impact in real terms.
The only ‘impact’ this issue has is with climate sceptics who seem to believe the lack of focus on Southern sea ice is a deliberate omission for propagandic purposes. If the purpose was political NSIDC would have reported on the record-breaking summertime low in March 2006. But they didn’t. ‘Warmist’ events for that topic (sea ice) are as unremarkable as the other. In a near trendless scenario, record anomalies are about weather, not climate. And the weather in the Antarctic holds no public interest because it affects no one (except the intrepid researchers that go there).
Significant trends that indicate something about climate there, like the peninsula, are a different story.
REPLY: Well you have your opinion, I have mine. But here’s where you really lose the argument:
“There is plenty of scientific interest in the Antarctic.”
And, NSIDC is a scientific organization, reporting their scientific views to the public, often as a news story generator. Serrezze for example is a veritable quote mine. I’m not conflating anything, they simply don’t wish to talk about it when they give briefings because it doesn’t fit their narrative. If it is so insignificant, then what’s the harm? The harm is that people ask questions, and the typical question from the layman is: If global warming is truly “global” why is Antarctica gaining ice, while the Arctic is losing ice. NSIDC really doesn’t want to deal with the question.
And this statement:
While Antarctic sea ice reached a near-record-high annual minimum in March 2008, this does not indicate a significant long-term trend.
Is utter BS. They make similar observations (saying there is a significant long-term trend) about the Arctic using the same satellite data set.
Yet people like you think they are being unbiased in their presentation. I don’t think they are unbiased at all, I think they are involved in salesmanship. Otherwise we would NOT hear things like “death spiral” quotes from the director.
Really, all this word bluster because I suggest NSIDC should report both poles in the year end report? You aren’t convincing anyone, and it pleases me greatly that you and many others are having a cow about it. – Anthony

savethesharks
December 22, 2010 5:51 am

O/T again but to answer R Gates’ attempted commandeer of this thread earlier about the pineapple express….let’s see what Joe Bastardi has to say. From his blog earlier today:
“As it is, THIS IS NOT of the same genre of last year. There is NO PINEAPPLE express, unless someone is growing pineapples midway between the Aleutians and Hawaii. Amazing how that is being said. The reason for this is that lower thickness air ( colder in the deep means) has been helped out by the cold PDO and there has been plenty of warmth over the southwest.”
“The natural clash of that jet aimed at that warm air produces heavy precip. I did not think it would get this far south, but just like the east better get while the getting is good with the chance of the major storm, much of the rest of the winter and into the spring should be dry in so cal.”
“Its just that this la nina, and I suspect its because it is being driven by a large scale climatic event.. the PDO turning old, is making its point. For those that want to argue global warming, I will tell you the same thing I told people in Europe 2 Novembers ago when it was raining so much.. wet means colder.”
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

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