Constructal GDP

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Encouraged by the response to my post on Adrian Bejan and the Constructal Law, which achieved what might be termed unprecedented levels of tepidity, I persevere. Here’s a lovely look at the energy use of the United States:

Figure 1. US 2002 Energy production and consumption by sector.

There are some interesting things which can be seen in this diagram.

1. Almost none of the power for electrical generation comes from oil. This means that even if the US could generate every Watt of electricity from solar/wind/whatever, it will not directly replace our consumption of oil.

2. Generation, transformation, and transmission losses eat up most of the energy used for electrical generation. Overall efficiency is 31%

3. Transportation is worse, with only 20% efficiency.

4. Nuclear is three times the size of hydro.

5. Wood, waste, alcohol, geothermal, solar, and wind electrical generation together are 3% of total energy use.

However, as interesting as I found those, that’s not the reason I started looking at energy use and GDP.

I was sucked into this subject by what I thought was an interesting quote from Adrian Bejan here (PDF, worth reading. My emphasis):

To summarize, all the high-temperature heating that comes from burning fuel (QH or the energy associated with QH and the high temperature of combustion; cf. Bejan 2006) is dissipated into the environment. The need for higher efficiencies in power generation (greater W/QH) is the same as the need to have more W, i.e. the need to move more weight over larger distances on the surface of the Earth, which is the natural phenomenon (tendency) summarized in the constructal law.

At the end of the day, when all the fuel has been burned, and all the food has been eaten, this is what animate flow systems have achieved. They have moved mass on the surface of the Earth (they have ‘mixed’ the Earth’s crust) more than in the absence of animate flow systems. The moving animal or vehicle is equivalent to an engine connected to a brake (figure 4), first proposed by Bejan & Paynter (1976) and Bejan (1982, 2006).

The power generated by muscles and motors is ultimately and necessarily dissipated by rubbing against the environment. There is no taker for the W produced by the animal and vehicle. This is why the GNP of a country should be roughly proportional to the amount of fuel burned in that country. (Bejan 2009).

I must confess, I had thought about GDP and energy before, but never from a thermodynamic standpoint. Here is a graph of per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption for a number of countries:

Figure 2. Per Capita Energy Consumption vs Per Capita GDP for Different Countries. PPP values are used. Image Source

OK, call me slow. I knew that depriving the developing world of affordable energy would impede development. But I had never realized that energy use is development, that there is a thermodynamic relationship between the two. I hadn’t noticed that if a country wishes to develop, it can only develop to the extent that it has energy, and no further. Lack of energy doesn’t merely hinder or slow or delay development of poor countries as I had thought.

It puts an absolute ceiling on development.

Given the number of people in the world living on a dollar a day or so, that’s a discouraging insight in the context of the current war on fossil fuel energy.

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Gail Combs
November 19, 2010 1:55 am

Dave F says:
Boy, can I just say that when I look at the diagram, I am reminded of an automatic transmission? The lost energy is heat. That is strange given the fact that economy is the transmission of society, transforming raw materials into finished goods, with the lost energy being the heat lost to provide hot air to the political system. Change the fluid every 2 years…
I think you identified the key point…. We are NOT changing the fluids every two years as required. Instead we leave the same “corrupted” fluid in place for twenty to thirty years. No wonder the engine is in trouble!

November 19, 2010 4:07 am

Kum Dollison,
Sorry but the 2011 Buick Regal is not out and they only claim to improve on the 15% loss in MPG not eliminate the gap. I will wait until Consumer Reports tests any claim a car manufacturer makes because they are consistently wrong, especially with MPG.
The reality so far is a 15% reduction in MPG running E85,
E85-ready cars: Gasoline vs. ethanol operating-cost comparison (Consumer Reports)
Thus, if someone buys an E85 car they will pay more to go the same distance than in a gasoline powered car.
Ethanol would not exist without government mandates and subsidies. I am interested in why you want Americans to pay more for a fuel that is not economically viable?
The only thing Ethanol has going for it is a high octane rating, the downsides are many (cannot be transported in existing pipelines, fires are harder to put out ect…) and the most important one – economic viability is not there.
So do you support the current 54 cent per gallon tariff on imported Ethanol that further steals wealth from the American consumer?
Why does the U.S. Ethanol industry need to exploit the U.S. consumer? Do you think they are suckers and the government should make them pay more for transportation fuel?

November 19, 2010 5:47 am

Kum Dollison says:
November 18, 2010 at 9:30 pm
“If I were forced to use either gasoline, or ethanol to heat a pan of water I’d choose gasoline.”
Odd that an avowed ethanophile would say that. Actually chemists traditionally used ethanol for that job, not gasoline. An alcohol spirit lamp burns quietly and safely, whereas gasoline has an unfortunate tendency to produce unpleasantly explosive mixtures (a good way to land yourself in hospital is to use it for lighting fires).

Kum Dollison
November 19, 2010 11:32 am

Pop, when the Blenders Credit comes off, the tariff comes off (you do realize that the blenders credit applies to imported ethanol as well as domestic, right?)
When the Credit comes off you will pay about Four and a Half Cents more for your gasoline, but the Gov will borrow some tiny amount less from China in your name.
E85 sales will go down, initially, but as corn returns to more normal price levels, and as gasoline becomes more dear, again, the trajectory of E85 sales will likely escalate once more.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
November 19, 2010 2:34 pm

From Kum Dollison on November 18, 2010 at 7:03 pm:

Ethanol has a much higher Octane Rating than gasoline (114 vs 84 for the RBOB it’s blended with.)

You really need to get off of this “It’s got high octane!” kick. From the Renewable Fuels Association site comes the Changes in Gasoline IV manual (pdf), which yields this on pg 31:

Octane: A minimum octane for E85 is not specified. FFV’s can tolerate the lower octane of gasoline i.e. 87 (R+M)/2. There is no requirement to post octane on an E85 dispenser. If a retailer chooses to post octane, they should be aware that the often cited 105 octane is incorrect. This number was derived by using ethanol’s blending octane value in gasoline. This is not the proper way to calculate the octane of E85. Ethanol’s true octane value should be used to calculate E85’s octane value. This results in an octane range of 94-96 (R+M)/2. These calculations have been confirmed by actual octane engine tests.

That’s about the rating of premium gasoline. What you’re talking about, the higher compression possible etc, can be achieved with premium. Mileage is generally the same whether burning common 87 octane or 93 octane premium, it’s the same energy content.
If you wanted the “performance benefit” that’s possible with E85 but using normal gasoline, all you’d need is an engine system that could measure the octane of the gasoline in the system and adjust accordingly. Don’t need the performance boost, use common 87. If you want it, use the pricier stuff.
At current national average prices, 87 is $2.883/gal, premium is $3.172. And the E85 MPG/BTU Adjusted Price is $3.306/gal. That’s paying a lot extra for some added performance from E85 versus premium over 87.
Also, from the mentioned manual, same pg:

Gasoline Gallon Equivalence (GGE): E85 blends contain less energy than gasoline, which results in fewer miles per gallon. Fuel cost, on a miles driven basis, must be considered. This is where things get a little more complicated. First, E85 is really E75 in the winter, E80 in spring and fall, and E85 in summer. Ethanol does not contain as much energy as gasoline (lower btu/gallon). In fact, E85 (E75, E80) contains about 73% to 76% the btu content of gasoline.

What is so wrong with ethanol that they can’t use as much when it’s colder?

Kum Dollison
November 19, 2010 7:05 pm

Ethanol runs cooler. It’s harder to ignite in cold weather. It’s kind of like me; it likes to hang out in a nice, warm place. Your pdf brought up the point that some “gasoline” blends act the same way.
You’re cherry-picking. You left out all of the references to ethanol, actually, doing better than btu content would suggest due to Thermal Efficiencies.
Look, some flexfuels only give up around 10% mileage. Some are in the 15% range. Most hang out somewhere between 20% (my Impala,) and 25%. But, these are Old engines. They are just gasoline engines with a few minor modifications that allow them to do an adequate job on higher ethanol blends.
I’m talking about the engines that are coming out, now. They are a different breed of cat. The new Regal will narrow the gap into the low, to middle single digits. Add in the new Delphi heated injectors that are expected to be on the market in 2012, and you’re probably looking at parity.
94 – 96 Octane is Not anywhere close to “premium” gasoline. That puts you into the Super-Expensive “Race Gas” territory.
Well, gotta run now, Kadaka. Been nice chattin wit ya. Happy Motorin. 🙂

November 19, 2010 7:36 pm

Kum Dollison,
Actually I have no idea what I will be paying for gasoline after the subsidy and tariffs expire because I have no real idea the available quantity of foreign made ethanol.
You never answered the question, do you support the current 54 cent per gallon tariff on imported Ethanol that further steals wealth from the American consumer?
Do you support the 10% Ethanol mandate imposed by economically illiterate government bureaucrats?

If you believe ethanol is competitive with oil than you should be petitioning to have the mandate, subsidies and tariffs removed. You should also be for repeal of all agricultural subsidies, (especially on corn) – as these directly effect the price of ethanol. Otherwise you are pro-American consumer exploitation.
Like I said before ethanol would not exist without the government.

Kum Dollison
November 20, 2010 2:17 pm

It doesn’t matter if I support the $0.45/gal tariff, or not. It’s coming off.
And, it doesn’t “steal” from the consumer. You pay a little less for gasoline, and the gummint borrows a little less from China.
As for subsidies: The U.S. Subsidized “Fossil” fuels to the tune of $52 Billion, last year alone.
Yes, I absolutely support the mandate. The oil companies would have never let ethanol get started without being forced to.
I do support some sort of “safety net” for farmers. A well thought-out support structure actually serves to make food cheaper. Remember, we pay the lowest prices for food of any nation in the history of the world.

November 20, 2010 3:53 pm

You never answered the question, do you support the current 54 cent per gallon tariff on imported Ethanol that further steals wealth from the American consumer?
Of course it steals wealth from the American consumer because it makes them pay more for transportation fuel. Why do you want to punish the American consumer?

As for subsidies: The U.S. Subsidized “Fossil” fuels to the tune of $52 Billion, last year alone.

I am for removing all subsidies but these are minuscule compared to ethanol, especially once your calculate in the extra taxes and regulation imposed on the oil industry,
Big Oil” at the Public Trough? An Examination of Petroleum Subsidies (PDF) (Ronald J. Sutherland, Ph.D. Energy Economist)

Yes, I absolutely support the mandate. The oil companies would have never let ethanol get started without being forced to.

The oil companies do not control what energy sources we use, the market does. It is clear you don’t care about how much the government punishes the American consumer and steals their wealth, you just care about your emotional ideology based on fantasy conspiracy theories.

I do support some sort of “safety net” for farmers. A well thought-out support structure actually serves to make food cheaper. Remember, we pay the lowest prices for food of any nation in the history of the world.

So you are a socialist, this explains your economic illiteracy when it comes to ethanol. We pay the lowest price for food of an nation in the world because we are the wealthiest nation in the world, it has nothing to do with subsidies. Subsidies merely distort prices, they artificially make the product being subsidized appear cheaper while robbing the capital away from other more productive uses of that capital in the economy. Ethanol subsidies BTW make food more expensive but you obviously don’t care if the poor of the world are hungry and starving just so long as your emotional ideology is fulfilled,
Ethanol Fuel From Corn Faulted As “Unsustainable Subsidized Food Burning” In Analysis By Cornell Scientist (Cornell University)
Biofuels Could Lead to Mass Hunger Deaths: U.N. Envoy (Reuters)

November 20, 2010 3:59 pm

Just to clarify why the octane rating is irrelevant,
7 More Fuel-Sipping Myths Debunked: Mechanic’s Diary (Popular Mechanics)
The Lie: “More expensive fuel offer better fuel economy, because it’s higher quality!”
The Truth: The media has confused this issue terribly. Post-1996 model-year cars virtually all have knock sensors. If the octane rating is too low, the computer will roll back the ignition timing a few degrees to compensate. This will reduce peak engine power, and also increase fuel consumption. So, in some sense, this myth gets it right–if your car is supposed to run premium. One of our long-term test cars in the PM fleet delivers an impressive 25-percent better fuel economy running on premium than it does on regular, although our test was hardly done under rigorous conditions. I’ll leave the math for an exercise, but I calculate the price differential between 87- and 91-octane fuel at more like 6 percent–at least in my neighborhood. Your mileage may vary, but it’s worth trying to see what happens in your car. If you top 6-percent better fuel mileage on premium, it may save you money to run it.
Of course, older cars, built in the days before knock sensors, may be damaged by running too poor a grade of fuel. Spark knock can actually burn holes in pistons, so burn substandard fuel in non-knock-sensor-equipped cars at your peril.
But wait, there’s more! Is your car supposed to run on Regular? There are more BTUs (energy) in regular than in higher grades. You may very well get better miles-per-gallon from regular.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
November 20, 2010 5:11 pm

From Kum Dollison on November 19, 2010 at 7:05 pm:

Ethanol runs cooler. It’s harder to ignite in cold weather.

Dang, I thought you’d have mentioned the info from that manual I mentioned, pg 31 of the pdf although pg 29 as numbered, where I got the other info. From the section on Vapor Pressure:

It is often difficult to meet the minimum vapor pressure requirements with today’s lower volatility gasolines. If a customer is complaining of poor cold start and poor warm up performance when operating on E85, it could be because the fuel’s vapor pressure is too low. This can be remedied simply by adding more gasoline to the blend.
ASTM is currently assessing the possibility of lowering requirements for the ethanol portion of the blend and increasing the hydrocarbon portion. This would increase vapor pressure for colder climates and/or where gasoline used in the blend is of lower volatility.

I have also read how in colder parts of the US, for ten months of the year they sell 70% ethanol (reference).
To skip ahead:

94 – 96 Octane is Not anywhere close to “premium” gasoline. That puts you into the Super-Expensive “Race Gas” territory.

Nah. And some readers might be getting confused. As the Wikipedia Octane rating entry puts it:

Generally, octane ratings are higher in Europe than they are in North America and most other parts of the world. This is especially true when comparing the lowest available octane level in each country. In many parts of Europe, 95 RON (90–91 AKI) is the minimum available standard, with 97/98 RON being higher specification (being called Super Unleaded). The higher rating seen in Europe is an artifact of a different underlying measuring procedure. In most countries (including all of Europe and Australia) the “headline” octane that would be shown on the pump is the RON, but in Canada, the United States and some other countries the headline number is the average of the RON and the MON, sometimes called the Anti-Knock Index (AKI), Road Octane Number (RdON), Pump Octane Number (PON), or (R+M)/2. Because of the 8 to 10-point difference noted above, this means that the octane in the United States will be about 4 to 5 points lower than the same fuel elsewhere: 87 octane fuel, the “regular” gasoline in Canada and the US, would be 91–92 in Europe. However most European pumps deliver 95 (RON) as “regular”, equivalent to 90–91 US AKI=(R+M)/2, and deliver 98, 99 or 100 (RON) (93-94 AKI) labeled as Super Unleaded – thus regular petrol sold in much of Europe corresponds to premium sold in the United States.

The extra-pricey premium in the US is very close to “Super Unleaded” in Europe, which is itself at the low end of the 94-96 range for E85. That is not “race gas” which is 100 AKI and higher. If the market was there, with engines that could provide that performance boost with higher octane but still run fine at 87, gasoline at 94-96 would be freely available.
As to the rest, well… I don’t like the Wikipedia Ethanol fuel entry, as with the E85 entry it looks abandoned, info getting out of date, references going to now-dead links. But it does have these good parts:

(…) Ethanol (E100) consumption in an engine is approximately 51% higher than for gasoline since the energy per unit volume of ethanol is 34% lower than for gasoline.[20][21] However, the higher compression ratios in an ethanol-only engine allow for increased power output and better fuel economy than could be obtained with lower compression ratios.[22][23] In general, ethanol-only engines are tuned to give slightly better power and torque output than gasoline-powered engines. In flexible fuel vehicles, the lower compression ratio requires tunings that give the same output when using either gasoline or hydrated ethanol. For maximum use of ethanol’s benefits, a much higher compression ratio should be used,[24] Current high compression neat ethanol engine designs are approximately 20-30% less fuel efficient than their gasoline-only counterparts.[25]
(…)
Ethanol’s higher octane rating allows an increase of an engine’s compression ratio for increased thermal efficiency.[22] In one study, complex engine controls and increased exhaust gas recirculation allowed a compression ratio of 19.5 with fuels ranging from neat ethanol to E50. Thermal efficiency up to approximately that for a diesel was achieved.[28] This would result in the fuel economy of a neat ethanol vehicle to be about the same as one burning gasoline.

Twist it however you want, ethanol still has less stored energy than gasoline. Due to better combustion properties, you are able to use inherently more efficient higher compression ratios. But, flex-fuel vehicles are a compromise, they cannot be as efficient as an ethanol-only vehicle. Pulling out all the stops, with turbos and lots of exhaust gas recirculation with complex computerized controls, you can get an ethanol-tuned very high compression engine that will yield about the same mileage as gasoline, and won’t work with plain gasoline.
You just can’t get there with E85 and flex-fuel. Period.

Brian H
November 20, 2010 6:54 pm

The Canada – Switzerland comparison is stupid foolish. Switzerland’s long axis is under 1/15 Canada’s. Transportation costs and losses are much higher in Canada; it also has a much more variable and severe climate. Apples and apples, oranges and oranges, please!

Kum Dollison
November 20, 2010 9:25 pm

But, that’s just it, Kadaka; the most advanced engines with varible ratio turbo, VVT, and Direct Injection Can Dial it Back for Gasoline.
When the O2 sensor detects straight gasoline the turbo is dialled back – decreasing the compression, and the EGR is decreased, in effect increasing the volume available for fuel in the Cylinder. You Can run both E85, And Gasoline at their Optimum Efficiencies. This is what the 2.0L DI Turbo Engine in the new Buick Regal does.
You Will see more, and more of these engines in the coming days.
* Right now you’re getting about 4% less mileage, and 20% more HP.
The next iteration will have the soon to be available Heated Injectors. At that point you should have Equal mileage, and still about 20% more HP on E85.
Pops, it’s too late in the thread to spend another 30 minutes knocking down all those old chestnuts. Maybe some other time.
Oh, and your boy “Pimental?” He’s an entomologist, and has been pitching “Coal to Liquid” for many years. He is, to put it bluntly, “not a disinterested observer.”
He stated that it would take our entire corn crop to produce enough ethanol for a 10% blend. We’re at 9%, Now, and we’re using, after accounting for DDGS, approx. 20% of our corn crop. And the crop, itself, is about the same number of acres (between 85, and 90 million acres.)

November 20, 2010 10:29 pm

“* Right now you’re getting about 4% less mileage, and 20% more HP.”
There is no independent testing to support this statement.
David Pimentel, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. He was also a Professor of Ecology and Agricultural Science at the time of that publication, he just did not retire as such. His research areas included,
* biodiversity | collaborative research area (CALS)
* crop management or crop science | collaborative research area (CALS)
* ecology | collaborative research area (CALS)
* environmental sciences | collaborative research area (CALS)
* organic agriculture | collaborative research area (CALS)
* pesticide management | collaborative research area (CALS)
* pest management | collaborative research area (CALS)
* soil and crop science | collaborative research area (CALS)
* soil health | collaborative research area (CALS)
* sustainable agriculture | collaborative research area (CALS)
He is more than qualified on this topic.
Coal to liquids makes more sense at a certain price point than burning food.
You still have not answered why you are in favor of punishing the American consumer just to support your emotional ideology about Ethanol. Does the American consumer not have the right to purchase the most economically viable (cheapest) source of transportation fuel?
Why are you in favor of contributing to world hunger by burning food?

Kum Dollison
November 21, 2010 1:00 am

Yeah, Pops, he’s so qualified that he stated that it would take our Entire corn crop to replace 10% of our gasoline, and a couple of years later we’ve replace 9% of our gasoline using 20% of our corn crop. He was still using 120 bu/acre yields in 2007 when yields were running 150 bu/acre (national average.)
In 2007 a study was done by Ia State that concluded that gasoline prices would be, on average, $0.35 gal higher if ethanol wasn’t in the market place. It’s, also, a fact that the Ethanol Industry pays way more in taxes – fed, state, and local – than it receives in subsidies.
As for the “food” argument Poor people don’t eat field corn. Field corn is eaten by cows, which are, in turn, eaten by RICH People. BTW, even with the anomalous China-driven Commodity spike field corn is still selling for less than 10 cents/lb.
And, btw, when you make ethanol from corn you don’t use the protein, vitamins, and minerals. You just utilize the Starch. All the Nutritious stuff is returned in the form of DDGS, and fed to the cows in lieu of the whole corn. Cows grow faster, and put on more wt when fed DDGS than when fed straight corn.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
November 21, 2010 2:25 pm

Excerpt from Kum Dollison on November 21, 2010 at 1:00 am:

Field corn is eaten by cows, which are, in turn, eaten by RICH People.

HA HA HA HA HA HA!!
I must remember that!
Next time I order a burger from the McDonald’s Dollar Menu, I should tell myself I’m eating COW therefore I’M A RICH PERSON!
Across this country, mothers stretching their budgets are buying the cheapest grade of ground COW. As they serve what they can can scrounge together with it to their hungry children, they need to tell their children THEY ARE RICH PEOPLE!
Why, when I feed the old dog her store-brand canned food, containing COW, I should her SHE’S A RICH PERSON!
Because, after all, it is RICH PEOPLE that eat COW!

Kum Dollison
November 21, 2010 3:16 pm

Well, Kadaka, the anti-ethanol crowd keeps referencing those people in Bangladesh, Africa, etc that live on $1.00/day, or so. You are, I would say, Incredibly Rich compared to them.
I was just trying to make the point that those people are not eating (and, never were) corn-fed beef, in the first place.
BTW, there are 2.6 pounds of corn in a pound of beef. Corn, before the big “spike-up” due to Russian buying was up about $0.04/lb compared to pre-ethanol price.
It looks like your “Quarter-Pounder” is up about A Penny as a result of ethanol
How will you Ever survive.

Brian H
November 21, 2010 5:12 pm

The point is not whether people would/could have eaten the field corn. That corn displaces other crops; food prices rise. That’s what caused the food riots and what is killing people.

Kum Dollison
November 21, 2010 8:04 pm

I defy you to find the slightest connection between field corn prices in the U.S. and any of the “food protests/demonstrations, etc” anywhere in the world. White sweet corn in Mexico, Bread (bakers went on strike) in Egypt, Rice in India, or China. Go on. Show the causation. I’ll wait . . . . . . . . . . .

November 22, 2010 3:02 am

A thermodynamic explanation of politics
The paper linked is quite good and the author is willing to discuss the subject with amateurs and people outside the field.

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