Spencer on Global Warming Elitism, Tomorrow’s Election, and The Future

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

The NASA A-Train satellite constellation symposium I attended last week in New Orleans was in some sense a celebration of the wide variety of global satellite observations we are now collecting from Earth orbit.

This really is the Golden Age in satellite data collection of the global climate system. While a few A-Train satellites are still to be launched, other older satellite assets in the A-Train are now operating well past their planned lifetimes.

There are no plans to replace many of these one-of-a-kind instruments, so much of what we will learn in the coming years will have to come from the analysis of previously collected data.

Unfortunately — at least in my opinion — the existence of this superb national resource depended upon convincing congress almost 2 decades ago that manmade global warming was a clear and present danger to the world.

Manmade Global Warming as the Justification

Since I believe the majority of what we now view as “climate change” is just part of a natural cycle in the climate system, I argued from the outset that NASA should be also selling “Mission to Planet Earth” as a way to better prepare ourselves for natural climate change — something that history tells us has indeed occurred, and we can be assured will occur again.

But behind the scenes there was a strong push for policy changes that even most of the scientists involved supported — ultimately culminating in the governmental control over how much and the kinds of energy sources humanity would be allowed to use in the future.

Cap and Trade, as well as potential regulation of carbon dioxide emissions by the EPA, are the fruits of the labor of politicians, governmental representatives, bureaucrats, the United Nations, and activist scientists who have used global warming as an excuse to accomplish policy goals that would have never been accomplished on their own merits.

Of course, most who speak out on this issue continue to point to the supposed “scientific consensus” on global warming as the justification, but those of us who knew the players also knew of these other motives.

I am often asked, “So, are you saying there is a conspiracy here?”

No, because the ultimate goals were not a secret. Just a bunch of elitists carrying out plans that the politicians supported — with continuing promises of congressional funding for research that those politicians knew would support Job #1 of government — to stay needed by the people. Many of the scientists involved are just along for a ride on the gravy train. Even I ride that train.

The elitism clearly shows through in the behavior of those who speak out publicly on the need for humanity to change its Earth-destroying ways: Al Gore, James Cameron, Harrison Ford, Julia Roberts, RFK, Jr.

These people apparently believe they are God’s gift to humanity. How else can we explain that they do not see the hypocrisy the rest of the nation sees in their behavior?

Unfortunately, I saw this attitude on a smaller scale at the New Orleans meeting. There are many new, young scientists now joining the ranks. They are being mentored by the older scientists who helped spread the alarm concerning manmade global warming. And they will be rewarded for playing the game.

Or will they?

The Times They Are A-Changin’

How is it that government agencies long ago decided to put all their eggs in the man-made global warming basket? Why have the movers and shakers around the world ignored natural climate change — even going so far as to claim it does not exist?

The only reason I can think of again goes back to their elitist beliefs and desired policy outcomes. The belief that a better-educated few should be allowed power over the less educated masses. That government knows better than the people do.

Tomorrow’s election is widely viewed as a referendum on the proper role of government in people’s lives. There is no question that the founders of our country intended there to be maximum of freedom on the part of individuals and the states, while placing strong limits on the role of the federal government.

Just read the Declaration of Independence if you want to see how pi$!ed off the settlers of the original colonies became at the King of England over his intrusion into their personal affairs.

And global warming legislation is now quite possibly the best opportunity the governments of the world have to increase the role of government in people’s lives.

The Basic Economics of Individual Freedom

Yet, many Americans believe that government can more equitably distribute the wealth generated by a country. This is a laudable goal on the face of it.

Unfortunately, history has taught us that trying to impose equality of outcomes only serves to make people equally miserable.

I like to think that I know something about basic economics. It was the subject of the 6th chapter in my first book –Climate Confusion — which received a nice blurb on the jacket from noted economist Walter Williams.

One of the reasons I am willing to stick my neck out and inform people of the uncertain nature of government-approved global warming science is because the basic economics behind any governmental (or environmental extremist) attempts to restrict personal choice in energy use will end up killing people.

In fact, it already has.

The biggest threat to humanity is poverty. Wealthier is healthier. When governments make energy more expensive, or environmental organizations pressure foreign countries to not build hydroelectric dams, poor people die.

Those already living on the edge are pushed over the edge. Energy is required for everything we do, and artificially raising the price of energy cannot help but destroy wealth generation.

If these elitists really were interested in the poor, they would be doing everything they could to help individuals take control of their own economic destinies. One billion people in the world still do not have electricity.

Worried about population growth? Then encourage the generation of wealth. It is the poor of the world that cause global population growth. The wealthy countries of the world have close to zero population growth.

Of course the main argument against this view is “sustainability”. Can the Earth sustain even more people consuming natural resources?

Interesting how those who ask the question have already gotten theirs, and now want to prevent others from doing the same.

But I would ask, can the world sustain the poverty-stricken? Poor countries have had most of their trees cut down. Imagine if global society collapsed and billions of people had to make do on their own with what they could scavenge from nature.

Now THAT would lead to a pollution problem.

What ensures sustainability is free markets. As natural resources of one type become more scarce, their price goes up, which makes alternatives more attractive. People are incentivized to develop new answers to old technological problems. This is why fossil fuels will never be used up. At some point, they simply will become too expensive to extract.

Mass production by factories and corporations should be embraced, rather than derided. It represents the most efficient way of providing goods and services. Waste is minimized because it hurts competitiveness.

But What About Equality?

Equality of outcomes is an illusion. It can never be achieved…unless we totally destroy the people’s motivation to make a better life for themselves.

A vibrant economy is what maximizes the tax revenue collected by the government. The two largest periods of growth in tax revenue collected by the government occurred after two major tax-CUTTING initiatives: JFK’s in the early 1960’s, and Reagan’s in the early 1980’s.

If you really want to help the poor, then help the country grow economically. Want to make sure the poor are taken care of? Then encourage businesses to grow, which will lead to more jobs. Economic activity is what is needed, and since the tax revenue the government receives is a “piece of the action”, more action means more money for government programs.

And whether we like it or not, the only way to ensure this growth happens is to give business owners and entrepreneurs some hope that their risk-taking and creativity will pay off for them personally in the future.

Yes, in the process, some people will get rich. A few will get obscenely rich. But this only occurs because so many consumers want the goods and services those rich few can offer them.

Call it a necessary evil, if you must. But it is, indeed, necessary. The end result will be more money for the poor, not less.

A New Fight Begins Tomorrow

The basic economics and desire to help the poor that have motivated me to speak out in the last 20 years on global warming policy will, starting tomorrow, be the subject of a national debate regarding the proper role of government in helping its people.

Tomorrow’s election is only the start. From then on, education about the practical importance of economic freedom will be central to that debate.

There is no question that our country has an unsustainable growth in our yearly budget deficits, and our total national debt is staggering. Everyone agrees this must change.

And reducing government expenditures must, of course, be part of the debate.

But increasing tax revenue to help support those programs is ALSO part of the solution. And since the only demonstrated (and sustainable)way to accomplish this is to grow the economy, it requires personal economic freedom.

So, what is the primary role of government in all this? In my opinion, it is two-fold: (1) make sure people play fair, and (2) get out of the way.

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Malcolm Miller
November 1, 2010 3:43 pm

What a pity that your clever caroonist still thinks (a) that telescopes have lenses on the end, and (b) that they ever project outside the dome, as if they were naval guns in turrets!

DirkH
November 1, 2010 3:47 pm

“There is no question that our country has an unsustainable growth in our yearly budget deficits, and our total national debt is staggering. Everyone agrees this must change.”
Not everyone.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/01/opinion/01krugman.html?_r=1

Murray Grainger
November 1, 2010 3:48 pm

Hear, hear!
Why is it that politicians are, in the main, so incredibly thick when it comes to such simple concepts as these?

Rhoda R
November 1, 2010 3:49 pm

The cartoon at the end pretty much describes the source of all the world’s problems.

James Sexton
November 1, 2010 3:51 pm

Dr. Spencer,
I must admit, I haven’t read your books. I comment here often, but not because I’ve some unnatural obsession about global temps or CO2, but rather the implications of policy. I’ve a new, profound, appreciation for the work of which you’re engaged. The sentiments you’ve so eloquently related, have been echoed by myself and many others here and elsewhere, only, in my case, not nearly as clear and concise.
My thanks.
James Sexton

November 1, 2010 3:52 pm

Wow, I reckon I know what Dr Roy will be doing if he ever gets sick of climate science.
I pretty much agree with everything said in this post. I have argued the same things here myself.
Funny enough, Stephen Wilde pointed to a PDF to support an argument he was making on the Arctic thread. The second article in that PDF shows NASA cancelling a few proposed satellite launchings, some of which would give us really good insights into how the Earth’s climate works. They didn’t however postpone the satellite measuring CO2, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory.

Ross Barton
November 1, 2010 3:54 pm

That line about Reagan cutting taxes and tax revenue soaring has been disproven time and again. People who cite this claim forget population growth and inflation during his presidency. Here are the annual rates of growth of real revenue per capita over several decades:
1973-1979: 2.7%
1979-1990: 1.8%
1990-2000: 3.2%
2000-2007: ~0.0%
These figures are compliments of Prof. Paul Krugman, 2009 Nobel prize winner in economics. As you can see, real revenue growth as a result of Reagan’s tax cuts was poor.

david
November 1, 2010 4:01 pm

Dr Spencer; thank you for a simpley put article full of not so common, common sense.
I wanted to respond to this portion of your post, “I like to think that I know something about basic economics. It was the subject of the 6th chapter in my first book –Climate Confusion — which received a nice blurb on the jacket from noted economist Walter Williams.”
Right now there is a political disconnect between the developed world and the yet to be developed in regard to CAGW which was probably the principle cause of failure at Copenhagen. The only way for the political proponents of CAGW to further their agenda is to offer additional monetary compensation to third world countries for the harm inflicted on them by the evil capitalist spewing the pollution CO2.
I would like to see this addressed in advance by credible economist. I strongly believe the reverse is true and CO2 has been a hugely net positive for all countries through its well established beneficial effect on all plant growth. To often skeptics are placed in a defensive position trying to refute literally hundreds of poorly done studies predicting the next CO2 induced disaster. A well written and researched report on the realized and future benefits of CO2 would be a powerful ally giving ammunition to the politicians trying to resist the large scale social changes advocated by the political left advancing CAGW as the reason necessitating statism on a worldwide basis. Such a report would need the following…
An estimate of the current worldwide food, clothing, and wood production including food for livestock with monetary value included.
An estimate, based on the many available CO2 studies, of what these same production goods would currently be if CO2 was still 280 PPM.
An estimate of how much it would cost to bring the lower production of an 280 PPM CO2 world to current production levels of a 390 PPM CO2 world. This would include a straight line cost analysis based on current production costs in all areas, as well as an estimated inflation cost based on additional demand for more land, more water, more fertilizer, more labor, more machinery costs etc; all at higher costs due to greater demand for said resources. This would add several percentage to the direct line cost estimates.
A further estimate of the future, based on additional CO2 up to whatever level is reasonable, keeping in mind that any adverse warming effect decreases exponentially, while the benefits continue to rise in a more linear fashion.
Ideally this would be broken down by country before totaled.
And finally, some comments on the social pressures you mention that a lower CO2 world would have, potentially resulting in social revolutions and international military conflicts.
My doing this would have no real effect, even assuming I did an excellent job. Perhaps a prod from you to a Professor McKitrick for instance could get such a project rolling. I could also see this as a potential masters thesis for some young PHD candidates also.

DirkH
November 1, 2010 4:05 pm

As soon as the Chinese start to dump their US treasuries, they can afford to let the Renminbi appreciate. Not before. It is the pegging of the Renminbi to the USD that kept the USD more or less stable since mid 2008. When this pegging stops, the USD will lose value and the Krugman vision will play out; taxation through inflation.

DirkH
November 1, 2010 4:09 pm

Ross Barton says:
November 1, 2010 at 3:54 pm
“These figures are compliments of Prof. Paul Krugman, 2009 Nobel prize winner in economics.”
They really *do* come in cereal boxes now, right?

Michaeljgardner
November 1, 2010 4:12 pm

Dirk H,
Wouldn’t our exports increase if the dollar lost value relative to other currencies? Wouldn’t that also make imports from China more expensive, thus decreasing our trade deficit?

November 1, 2010 4:14 pm

Exactly.
One nit-pick though; not “the King of England” was p****d off, , rather “the King of Great Britain”. England (and Scotland) disappeared as sovereign countries in 1707 when a new country called Great Britain came into being.

Duke C.
November 1, 2010 4:14 pm

Ross Barton says:
November 1, 2010 at 3:54 pm
Krugman is a crackpot. Watching his public meltdown is embarrassing and painful, even for those of us who lean conservative. Was your post meant to be sarcastic?

wayne
November 1, 2010 4:16 pm

Ross Barton says:
November 1, 2010 at 3:54 pm
These figures are compliments of Prof. Paul Krugman, 2009 Nobel prize winner in economics.

Just can’t help it, can you?

brad
November 1, 2010 4:22 pm

If only things could be boiled down to simple truisms, then who would need to vote? Unfortunately you cannot, and your simple minded expression of a truism, is well, a bit silly. Are you against a combined defense? Should we do away with the Army? Are you against gov programs? Have you been consistent and burned your Medicaid and Social Security cards and have no plans to depend on them? Should we do away with roads building and make it paygo? Should we do away with all regulation of Waal Street and your medicine? What would you have go away? Have you consistently not used gov help?
It is simple to throw out crap truisms, it is harder to govern. I pay alot of taxes, much more than the average American as I am luccky enough to be well off, and getting better. Does that mean I need to keep it all and not pay? Does it mean I should small mindedly resent those who make less and pay less, or not at all? No, I think I get a pretty good deal for my high taxes. Great roads, a great defense, a stable society – and that is more than rich folks have most places on this planet. Your taxes are a great deal, pay them and get over your own importance and judgment.
I wouldn’t presume to know who God hates or judge for him, I leave that to him.

kdk33
November 1, 2010 4:22 pm

(1) make sure people play fair, and (2) get out of the way.
Sweet.

John Game
November 1, 2010 4:23 pm

Malcolm Miller, those telescopes look like what I think are called Schmidt-Cassegrain, like the famous C8. They are reflectors with a central secondary mirror in a glass correcting plate at the front end. The secondary mirror sends the light back down to the eyepieces through a hole in the primary mirror. You can even see a spot that’s supposed to be the back of the secondary mirror, I think. Nothing wrong with any of that. I’ll grant you they are unlikely to project out of their respective observatories, but ok, to me that’s acceptable artistic license in a cartoon. The reader has to be able to see them, after all :).

latitude
November 1, 2010 4:27 pm

I can’t believe our president did it again, and on the day before the election…
….now I’m an ignorant bigot racist, clinging to my guns and religion
……and I’m confused and scared, all at the same time
How in this world do I ever make it through a day?

John from CA
November 1, 2010 4:33 pm

Near term future will be defined by Gridlock and Law Suits. 5 states are ready to sue California for violation of intra-state commerce if we pass AB32 into law.
Other States are already in suits related to Constitutional violations in the HealthCare Bill and attempting to put a leash on the EPA’s latest lunacy.
“Tomorrow’s election is widely viewed as a referendum on the proper role of government in people’s lives. There is no question that the founders of our country intended there to be maximum of freedom on the part of individuals and the states, while placing strong limits on the role of the federal government.”
Its going to take 2 or more elections to do this but its a good start.
Great Post!

brad
November 1, 2010 4:34 pm

latitude-
What are talking about? [snip]

Curiousgeorge
November 1, 2010 4:34 pm

You’re correct of course, re: the “elite” point of view. But it is not a new phenomenon. “What is best for Caesar is also best for Rome.” Or words to that effect.
In some respects our species does seem to be slow learners.

George E. Smith
November 1, 2010 4:37 pm

“”” Malcolm Miller says:
November 1, 2010 at 3:43 pm
What a pity that your clever caroonist still thinks (a) that telescopes have lenses on the end, and (b) that they ever project outside the dome, as if they were naval guns in turrets! Where did you see a picture of Telescopes ? Those are rapid fire gun turrets as can be found on a lot of modern naval vessels.
If you are trying to bring down an exocet missile that is skimming the waves coming at your ship, a typical anti-missile sytem won’t react quick enough. The best bet is to raise the abundance of Pb (lead) in the atmosphre well above EPA limits to subtract momentum from the incoming missile. Deplete Uranium would also work if you are lucky enough to have some of that.

James Sexton
November 1, 2010 4:37 pm

From Wiki………”Paul Robin Krugman ……….is an American economist, Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, Centenary Professor at the London School of Economics, and an op-ed columnist for The New York Times.”
Woodrow Wilson and NY times………says all I need to know. You might just as well bring up a study from Algore. He’s a Nobel laureate too.
Further, population growth? If one is to include population growth in regard revenue, then one has to include population growth in unproductive areas, such as welfare recipients. Not in regard to the drag on expenditures, but rather in regards to the fact that they don’t work, ergo, not producing any tax revenues!

bubbagyro
November 1, 2010 4:41 pm

It was tax revenue Roy was talking about. That is the one parameter that can be looked at with confidence, as it cannot be adjusted. Even in constant dollars, more $billions came into the treasury in 1984 than last year.
AND the kicker is that Krugman is dead wrong. He uses some nifty “assumptions” for his “models”. For example, he “adjusts” Consumer Price Indices, omitting some minor consumables like energy and food. When you take out little bitty things, like the price of gasoline in the 1970s, people were really doing great! (once they got out of the gasoline lines). Nor did buying power come into play for good old Kruggie—let’s see—how much was a calculator back in the good old 1970s?? I forget, wasn’t it a month’s worth of food, for example? Left-wing Keynesian “Economists” even today are continuing to “adjust” the data. Adjusting the past in a negative direction and the present in a positive trend. Sound familiar in this thread? Need I say more?
I prefer the conclusions of Nobel Prize winner, the late Milton Friedman, who takes a 180 degree opposite take to the ultra-left Krugman.
This is all moot because:
a) The Nobel Prize, for anything but hard science, meaning physics, chemistry, biology, is bogus
b) The Nobel Prize in economics is bogusser than most Nobel Prizes except for the Peace prize, of course, that is a joke.
c) Alfred Lord Nobel is rolling over like a cuisinart in his grave.

brad
November 1, 2010 4:41 pm

Curious George-
Great point : “You’re correct of course, re: the “elite” point of view. But it is not a new phenomenon. “What is best for Caesar is also best for Rome.” Or words to that effect.”
The problem is the Caesar here is the Koch Brothers, the folks funding Rove, and the rest of the billionaires behind the tea party and Fox News. Ever wonder why the tea party positions are exactly the ones the billionaires want? Read the agenda, follow the money – the elites are where you do not expect to find them…
Murdoch is arguably more powerful than any president, he is Fox News…

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