Met Office turns to crowdsourcing climate data

Gee, where have we seen this pioneered for gathering data before? Of course, Professor Stott saw fit to not invite Dr. Roger Pielke Sr., myself or anyone who has any experience  with this sort of thing to the Exeter meeting of surfacetemperatures.org.  But as they say, “imitation is the sincerest form of flattery”.

Your chance to help chart past climate

12 October 2010

Small section of the Met Office archive 

Small section of the Met Office archive

Voyages of World War One Royal Navy warships are being used to help scientists understand the climate of the past and unearth new historical information, with help from the public.

Visitors to the website OldWeather.org, which launches today, are being invited to input weather observations of the routes taken by any of 280 Royal Navy ships. Once on the website, volunteers will be asked to transcribe information from the digital copies of historical logbooks, making notes of weather and any interesting events.

Dr Peter Stott, Head of Climate Monitoring and Attribution at the Met Office, said: “Historical weather data is vital because it allows us to test our models of the Earth’s climate: if we can correctly account for what the weather was doing in the past, then we can have more confidence in our predictions of the future. Unfortunately, the historical record is full of gaps, particularly from before 1920, and at sea, so this project is invaluable.”

Dr Chris Lintott of Oxford University, one of the team behind the OldWeather.org project added: “These naval logbooks contain an amazing treasure trove of information, but because the entries are handwritten they are incredibly difficult for a computer to read. By getting an army of online human volunteers to retrace these voyages and transcribe the information recorded by British sailors we can relive both the climate of the past and key moments in naval history.”

OldWeather.org forms a key part of the International ACRE Project, which is recovering past weather and climate data from around the world and bringing them into widespread use. Met Office Hadley Centre scientist Dr Rob Allan, the ACRE project leader said: “Reconstructing past weather from these historical documents will help further our knowledge of weather patterns and climatic changes.”

Most of the data about past climate comes from land-based weather monitoring stations which have been systematically recording data for over 150 years. The weather information from the ships at OldWeather.org, which spans the period 1905–1929, effectively extends this land-based network to 280 seaborne weather stations traversing the world’s oceans.

The weather records digitised by Old Weather will be added to the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set, and will be freely available for all uses.

=====================

h/t to WUWT reader DavidS

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61 thoughts on “Met Office turns to crowdsourcing climate data

  1. I hope their quality control is good, William Connolly now has a lot of time available for this sort of thing………..

  2. And when the historical data does not match the results produced by the models, they will secretly, BUT scientifically adjust the historical data rather than the models, because the models are right and the planet is wrong.
    Anybody who queries this methodology is an idiot and clearly not a climate scientist, and is funded by big oil. So there! (With knobs on)

  3. Met Office is a guardian of the longest uninterrupted source of temperature data i.e. CETs, a great benefit to any climate researcher. I hope they do look with open eyes and mind at every new effort and attempt to better understanding of those data, the causes and consequences.
    The CETs and climate movements are not ‘chaotic’, there is a fundamentally good reason for getting out of the Little Ice Age, it is likely that the same physical process caused the medieval warming period including sudden plunge into the LIA.
    By close monitoring of the NAP process (as shown in the attached graph) it may be possible to anticipate in good time another radical change in direction of the climate movements.
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NAP.htm

  4. What a novel idea, using anecdotal historical evidence to come to a better understanding of our climate. Who’d thunk it? Well, better late than never. I’m going to volunteer to participate when time permits!

  5. “Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery” – unless you’re Raymond Bradley in which case its called plagiarism?
    My issue is that they can’t have it both ways – steal your ideas without attribution on one hand yet squawk when a “white paper” is not referenced to some ambiguous standard.
    If I were you – I would send a letter to them (and NOAA) demanding explicit attribution.
    REPLY: Crowdsourcing science preceded the surfacestatons project. For example the SETI@home project. While I’m sure that my work had some influence on Stott, and my work was presented at the Exeter meeting by a hostile presenter (Dr. Matt Menne), I most certainly cannot claim any patent or copyright on the idea of crowdsourcing climate data gathering. But, a hat tip would have be nice. But, as we know, we aren’t dealing with nice people. – Anthony

  6. Americans can also plow through the data stashed away
    by the Army Signal Corps from 1861 – 1942 titled:
    “U.S. Army Signal Corps/Weather Bureau Annual Reports, 1861-1942”
    and found at:
    http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/cso/data_rescue_signal_corps_annual_reports.html
    These annual reports are spotty for the first 10 years,
    but they pick up in quantity and quality in the mid 1870’s.
    The are some good weather system maps in the reports,
    and one of the first international weather maps ever created.
    I brought this up a year or so ago at Climate Audit. Some
    folks pooh-poohed the mound of information because of
    the “old” instrumentation involved.

  7. Here’s the perfect new job for Connolley, he can read, distort, and input the old logs during the 6 months that he’s relieved of duties at WP.

  8. Is it just me or are there real problems with this. Do the logs describe how the temps. were taken: windy day, calm day, ship againt the wind, with the wind, on the deck, on the bridge, in the sun, in the shade? What about the time of day: one day early a.m., one day later a.m., noon, afternoon, evening? And then location? Isn’t there something wrong here? Is this really scientific method? And how bout the volunteers?How are they vetted? Will they transcribe the logs correctly? They end result will be something totally subject to interpretation. Maybe what they want.
    Our waste of taxpayer dollars is: ‘worse than we thought’.

  9. Could I suggest that anyone who gets involved in this make their findings public so that any “adjustments” to the collated result can be spotted?

  10. I wonder what QA system they will put in place to ensure that the untrained visitors to the website don’t make any mistakes in the wrong direction.

  11. I signed up to this, thinking it was a good idea. Having transcribed a couple of pages now I see that it is going to be very hard, very slow, and very expensive to get good quality results from this project. To give just one example, I had to redo a page when I realized the person making the log entries wrote his 7s so they looked like 4s. Much of his writing was completely unintelligible; beautiful and stylish and consistent no doubt, but unreadable. He also seemed to use a notation all his own for some data. Net result: a lot of gaps in what I transcribed, and low confidence in what I did transcribe. It’s going to be a nightmare to do the QA.

  12. Chris Lintott is famous for his appearances on the BBC both in their “The Sky at Night” broadcasts and on an ad hoc news expert basis. I think he is a genuine guy and the MO are right in saying that if they can put all RAW data into this wonderful new database for open use then the science will have moved a long way but it is not their doing. They would never have done this if not for the pressure from blogs such as Anthony’s and SteveMc.
    I hope they find it in their phsycy to do an honest and thorough job but I have my doubts especially if, as the data is aggregated, it starts to show wrongdoing at the MO .

  13. vukcevic says:
    October 15, 2010 at 9:19 am
    The CET data is adjusted. It is not raw. Be careful. Armagh is better but as they pointed out to me on more than one occasion , it still has it’s problems with location and instrumental changes

  14. Gee, where have we seen this pioneered for gathering data before? Of course, Professor Stott saw fit to not invite Dr. Roger Pielke Sr., myself or anyone who has any experience with this sort of thing.“…”But, a hat tip would have be nice. But, as we know, we aren’t dealing with nice people.
    You really can be a right sour-puss at times, Anthony.
    REPLY: Peter, walk a mile in my shoes for a day, experience the insults, the mudslinging, the ridicule, and yes even the hatred that I experienced for starting and writing about the surfacestations project, and then you might understand.
    You have not done one constructive thing over the years except complain about people like me and the work. I’ve actually done the work, despite people like yourself telling me how wrong or stupid it is, and yet, my work was presented at Exeter (without attribution in some cases) and now they are following the lead without so much as a peep of acknowledgment. The paper coming will change a lot of this, but I fully expect “nice” people to trash it because it really doesn’t fit their world view.
    Remember this? “In a way, this is cheering news” (Climategate email from CRU on the Death of skeptic John Daly). Or how about the fact the Dr. Menne used my incomplete data (against my formal written protests) to write a preemptive strike paper before I could actually finish the surfacestations project? Yeah, really nice people.
    Of course if the situation were reversed, you would be howling FOUL! You really do need some perspective on yourself and the people you support. – Anthony

  15. Hopefully they will store the scans as well as well as the transcriptions. The evolution of curfive, I mean cursive may be challenging and should be reviewed carefully review by linguistic historians.

  16. The concept of using members of the public to obtain data is valid, assuming that there are adequate controls or verification techniques in place. There are well known scientific endeavours where “amateurs” still have a significant role to play. One that comes to mind is Astronomy.
    As for the weather records mentioned in the article, old naval data may be an excellent source.

  17. vukcevic says:
    October 15, 2010 at 9:19 am
    By close monitoring of the NAP process (as shown in the attached graph) it may be possible to anticipate in good time another radical change in direction of the climate movements.
    How could they do this if you have not described the ‘process’? Perhaps you are reserving that for your 2-page Nobel Prize paper…

  18. Judd says:
    October 15, 2010 at 9:35 am
    Is it just me or are there real problems with this.

    Would there also be an Urban Heat Island Effect on those metal ships?

  19. It might be interesting to grab all the original data. I bet the original data will disappear when the massaged “value added” data gets out…
    Ecotretas

  20. Is this a wise move by the Met Office. I mean if data comes in to show warmer than present average Arctic temperatures / sea temperatures what will they say? Transcription errors, deranged seaman, heat from the propellers. :o)

  21. I think genealogy sites have done something like this, transcribing vital statistics and immigration records to text files and keeping the scans too for future quality control.
    One simple QA technique is to have two people transcribe the same document and compare the two results. I have a little experience with transcribing from legible sources, it sounds like these could be pretty challenging, at least until one learns the writing style of the various authors.

  22. Anthony,
    You mentioned a Professor Stott in your introduction, which gave me a bit of a shock. Then you listed Dr Peter Stott, Head of Climate Monitoring and Attribution at the Met Office within the body of the post, so all seems well. You may no have been aware that there is another Professor Philip Stott who is a staunch sceptic as far as politicians are concerned.
    “Global warming’ has become the grand political narrative of the age, replacing Marxism as a dominant force for controlling liberty and human choices. In this blog, I hope to be able to deconstruct the ‘myth’ in order to reveal its more dangerous and humorous foibles and follies. I shall focus as much on the politics as on the science.”
    Here is his blog. He is absolutely not a man who would decry all your good work.
    http://web.mac.com/sinfonia1/Global_Warming_Politics/A_Hot_Topic_Blog/A_Hot_Topic_Blog.html
    Best wishes,
    Perry
    REPLY: Thanks, I found out today that there are two George Taylors also. – Anthony

  23. the only way this makes sense is to have 3 sets of eyes on every page. 2 volunteers transcribe each page and submit their results. A third person reviews and compares those results and if there is any meaningful discrepency those results are thrown out and must be redone by 2 other volunteers and validated by a different third person.
    Only way to be sure … nuke them from space !!!

  24. stephen richards says: October 15, 2010 at 9:49 am
    The CET data is adjusted. It is not raw. Be careful. Armagh is better but as they pointed out to me on more than one occasion , it still has it’s problems with location and instrumental changes.
    Agree, but we can deal only with what is available. As you can see from my graph
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NAP.htm
    on many occasions two sets of data do not agree, and that is expected, but the NAP data tends to capture the main trends.
    There is another reason I think that CETs are relatively reliable, and it is confirmed by a default.
    In 2007 Australian scientist Ken McCracken (ex NASA) published work based on the 10Be Greenland ice cores. He intended to calculate strength of the heliospheric field at the Earth’s orbit. What he actually calculated is the last thing he wanted, i.e. the North Atlantic temperature anomaly. His data (if not corrected, which I made an attempt to do for Dalton minimum, one of more interesting periods) only makes sense for post 1960’s when the satellite data was collected (by instruments designed by himself).
    Here is McCracken’s result compared to the CCTs
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-McC.htm
    Of course the ice core dating methods aren’t always perfect, but looks that the ice core 10Be (inverted count) did a good job of verifying CETs.

  25. Dr Peter Stott, Head of Climate Monitoring and Attribution at the Met Office, said: “Historical weather data is vital because it allows us to test our models of the Earth’s climate: if we can correctly account for what the weather was doing in the past, then we can have more confidence in our predictions of the future.”
    As long as they do not model the real principles, do not include ALL of the relevant factors, and use mathematical analogs rather than the real equations, the models will continue to have the utility of a broken toaster.
    Sifting through old records can be fun, but this sounds more like they are trying to look like they are trying to improve than actually doing so.

  26. Judd says:
    October 15, 2010 at 9:35 am
    Is it just me or are there real problems with this. Do the logs describe how the temps. were taken: windy day, calm day, ship againt the wind, with the wind, on the deck, on the bridge, in the sun, in the shade?
    If the Royal Navy was anything like the U.S. Army Signal Corps,
    the equipment and methods of measurement taking were specified
    in the observer training coarses and in the field manuals.
    For the U.S. Army, the times of day for observations, wet & dry bulb
    methods, etc., were all logged into formatted forms that were
    telegraphed daily to the Corp’s central information hub, with the
    hand done forms mailed later, or carried to Washington on a weekly
    basis. Same thing for their monthly summaries.
    There was some effort to compile U.S. Naval and Merchant Marine
    observations, but those seem to be scattered in various archives and
    mostly lost to public scrutiny.
    The Brits had more ships afloat, but had to wait longer to get the
    info from the seven seas back to England.
    The consistant methods back then allow the creation of reasonable
    baseline data now.

  27. I think it was Hansen and his ilk that wrote about that climate models were just simplified weather models that the meteorological folks are using. Something about weather models being to complex and inherently non-linear which they can’t apply to 5, 10, 50 or a hundred years time line.
    So there fancy and bugged out models begin with a modeled average stretched out over a 100 year period but that average lacks the accumulated daily weather data, instead the data is just fantasy statistics of what could be if . . .
    To see if such looney models are accurate they’d actually need to invert the process down to individual daily weather data (and not fantastically smeared out statistical averages of ones own creation) and see if those are spot on for real world daily weather data for any historical time period. When they can present something like this, they’d be getting lots of converts, but until such time they’re just be the simpletons looking for easy hand outs.

  28. M White says:
    “Why just World War One Royal Navy warships, the Navy has records that go back much further.”
    Sadly, it is no longer possible to talk to serving sailors about the WW1 records. It won’t be long before veterans of the 2nd WW will no longer be with us, and so information that might be useful will also be lost.

  29. What annoys me about this is that there is already a much larger project to do this using the records in the National Maritime Museum both of RN ships and HM packets to investigate the weather going back to the 1760’s with especial reference to Arctic ice extent because the packets out of Halifax to Falmouth generally sailed as far north as they could given the ice conditions: which they routinely recorded with the reports filed with and retained after each voyage by the Post Office. This was a regular route with sailings throughout the year: although frequency declined steadily as US mails were increasingly carried by private lines out of New York such as the famous Black Ball line: much to the fury of the Post Office which not only paid ship letter rate on incoming mail, two old pence per letter, but also lost much of the outgoing traffic. When the packets were replaced by steam navigation the RN established a regular Arctic patrol which operated with some gaps until the end of the nineteenth century.
    And given the Wegman controversy does this new project count as plagiarism?
    Kindest Regards

  30. I suggest t is important that they provide training in the reading of cursive script and its variants. This should be done before volunteers embark on the project.

  31. stephen richards says: October 15, 2010 at 9:49 am
    Armagh is better but as they pointed out to me on more than one occasion..
    Mr. Richards
    I forgot to ask have you got a link to the Armagh data?
    Thanks.

  32. Chris Lintott has been involved for years with a similar interactive project called Galaxy Zoo.
    http://www.galaxyzoo.org/
    “Welcome to Galaxy Zoo, where you can help astronomers explore the Universe
    Galaxy Zoo: Hubble uses gorgeous imagery of hundreds of thousands of galaxies drawn from NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope archive. To understand how these galaxies, and our own, formed we need your help to classify them according to their shapes — a task at which your brain is better than even the most advanced computer.”
    The vital difference between this project and the Met Office’s baby is that nobody, as far as I am aware, has any reason not to be truthful in classifying galaxies or any reason to homogenize or value-add to the results.

  33. On a related subject, I vaguely recall reading accounts of the US Navy using the logs of whaleships for basic info about the many Pacific Islands for which there was very little knowledge recorded anywhere else.
    I also think that the US Navy used the weather observations of the whaleships to generate basic climatological predictions and predictions on prevailing currents.
    There’s a lot of info out there, although the old records are hard to access.

  34. Chris Lintott has done a great job with crowd-sourcing hundreds of thousands of volunteers with the Galaxy-Zoo project and spinoffs. These efforts have made significant advances in astronomical research as well as new discoveries. Good to see some expertise brought into this project. I’ve participated with Galaxy-Zoo and Surfacestations and would suggest WUWT readers get involved here if they can.

  35. @Ric Werme
    Yes. There are several transcription projects in genealogy (census, BMD data, &c.). They all seem to work on (variations of) a ‘tell me twice’ approach – the transcribed data is often color-coded – one color/shade for transcribed once, another for twice & agreeing, thrice & agreeing & so on. They must have a procedure for dispute resolution (finger trouble the most common, I suppose), but I’ve only (parasitically) used, not contributed.

  36. In the world of old deeds and land descriptions, you can work out the shape of the tract. If plotting out your reading of the description does not bring you back to your starting point, then there is an error. It seems something similar could be done with these records by paying attention to locations from one reading to the next. If you think the ship was in a particular place at a particular time, the next day it should not be half a world away. There must be many ways to cross check info. Good luck to everybody involved. Sounds fascinating.

  37. The daily issue of rum to both officers and men on Royal Navy ships until comparatively recently was, by today’s standards, formidable.
    Photographs of antique brass ships’ thermometers do not inspire confidence in any data collected from them.
    Descriptions of the methodology deployed in temperature collection also give rise to some concern.
    In short, a quaint little excercise, but hardly robust enough to have any bearing on the quest for an extended global temperature record.
    Now where’s that Pussers Rum……………….? Hic!

  38. Just a word of caution on using Navy sources for temperatures – I was a sailor for 6 years, and typically readings were taken on just about every system every hour. These weren’t dedicated scientists but very junior enlisted men. This getting very boring after a few weeks, and since the sailor “knows” the incoming seawater temperature was 48 F for the last two hours, he might just radio the next two entires as 48 F as well; this was called “radio’ing” the logs. While most sailors wouldn’t do it, many get bored and “radio” their logs.

  39. Our PM in Australia does the same – have climate meetings and panels but exclude climate skeptics. Our department of climate change only has policies on glbal warming, so does the CSIRO. It is censorship extreme!

  40. Peter Hearnden aka DEVONIAN
    Said
    You really can be a right sour-puss at times, Anthony.
    Hey ho Dev, some leopards never change their spots.
    See you in a months time…netweather climate forum

  41. Ecotretas says:
    October 15, 2010 at 10:27 am
    It might be interesting to grab all the original data. I bet the original data will disappear when the massaged “value added” data gets out…
    Ecotretas

    Jimbo says:
    October 15, 2010 at 10:38 am
    Is this a wise move by the Met Office. I mean if data comes in to show warmer than present average Arctic temperatures / sea temperatures what will they say? Transcription errors, deranged seaman, heat from the propellers. :o)

    I find this to be the saddest part of this whole politicization-of-science affair. Once people trusted the experts in a field. Then we had the various food scares “Eggs are good/bad/good/bad/good/bad/good/bad/good for you” and the revelations of Vioxx killing you, but unpublishedly, and then the cherry-picking revelations of various studies, then the background mechanations of Climategate, then various “adjustment” sagas (like New Zealand), and so on and so forth…
    Now, if a prominent scientist was in your house, not only would you be arguing with his conclusions (as you should), you’d want to know the ins-and-outs of his revenue stream, and if he knew his peer/pal reviewers, and you’d now also treat his “facts” and “records” with scorn and suspicion.
    On top of that, you’d count your silverware in case it got “adjusted”.
    The fall-out from this will reach many years into the future. This is starting to be the sort of level of trust/derision politicians and bankers frequent.

  42. As William M. Connolley has a lot of free time now, maybe he can contribute to this new project that is right in the area of his expertise.

  43. Bit of a performance getting started, but, once in, a simple grind.
    Readings every four hours [at the end of the watch, normally].
    Looks to be straightforward – if time consuming.
    I’ve been in shipping since it was legal to hang [serious] malefactors at the yard-arm, and this all appears pretty standard [albeit grey funnel standard, rather than, mostly, merchant ship].
    UHI effects – certainly; the highest temperature I ever experienced was 170F in the Oil [Arabian/Persian] Gulf [down a pumproom: yes, in summer, and you climbed fifty feet (15m) out for a break!].
    Did the ships carry and use Stevenson Screens? I don’t know; they might have done; the Voluntary Observing Ships today do.
    It is likely that the RN tried to ensure all thermometers and barometers were calibrated annually [or at refits, which may have been two years apart.].
    The observers for these logs were, for the most part on H.M. Ships, professional naval officers, with – very reasonably – an interest in the weather: they had to go through it. I – me, personally – think it is likelythat they tried (generally) to be accurate.

  44. As has already been mentioned, similar method has been and continues to be done with genealogical data such as extracting from handwritten records such as census records: names, ages, marriages, occupations and other relevant data. BUT every GOOD genealogist relies on original records and not transcribed information. I search transcribed data, but source my database with the original records or a copies of the original records as other researchers (ancestors) may and will want to know where and how I found the information and arrived at certain conclusions.
    Keep and make the original records available.

  45. Leif Svalgaard says:
    October 15, 2010 at 10:15 am
    vukcevic says:
    October 15, 2010 at 9:19 am
    By close monitoring of the NAP process (as shown in the attached graph) it may be possible to anticipate in good time another radical change in direction of the climate movements.
    How could they do this if you have not described the ‘process’? Perhaps you are reserving that for your 2-page Nobel Prize paper…
    And of course, you’ll publish your ‘learned’ rebuttal on a PostIt® note, right?
    Your posts fairly reek of condescending arrogance.

  46. 899 says:
    October 15, 2010 at 5:57 pm
    Your posts fairly reek of condescending arrogance.
    Such a comment does not take into account the actual contents of my criticism, which is that the data used are uncertain, the proposed physics is energetically untenable, and the alleged ‘verification’ by McCracken is not valid. The arrogance is Vuk’s, with his inflated and undocumented claims which do disservice to WUWT.

  47. 899 says: October 15, 2010 at 5:57 pm
    ………….
    With prolific number of publication available through internet, it is difficult even for renown scientist to get attention, unless of course he runs his own blog and continuously feeds it with new stuff.
    For someone who does research on small and amateur scale, in spare time, not every day is a new discovery, may be one or two in lifetime if one is lucky.
    Then there is another problem, the science establishment’s means of publishing are not easily accessible to the outsiders. So if you come across something you think is worthwhile you put it all together on internet, dozen people read it, and then it is forgotten, until some ambitious academia mole comes along, rewrites it all, inserts some fancy maths, puts his name to it, in short rips it off, and original author may even never know about it.
    What is the alternative: It is great blog like WUWT .
    If finding is really worthwhile than readers are interested, they will look at it, and thanks to the pesky ‘wasp’ of the blog, it certainly will not go unnoticed. Now instead of few, hundreds or even thousands are aware of it, far less chance of being ripped off ,when all details are presented finally. So as you can see all god’s creatures have their purpose.
    I think what I have come across it is worthwhile
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NAP.htm
    As quoted else where:
    All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. –Arthur Schopenhauer
    It appears I am on stage two, might have to wait for long time if ever for the third stage, but signs are promising. Thanks for the support.

  48. James Sexton says
    ———-
    What a novel idea, using anecdotal historical evidence to come to a better understanding of our climate.
    ———-
    I have an idea in the back of my mind that it’s not a novel idea, although the cloud sourcing approach applied to this particular problem may be.
    Being sarcastic and continually flogging the idea that you are smart and they are stupid doesn’t impress. Sorry.

  49. vukcevic says:
    October 16, 2010 at 1:00 am
    Then there is another problem, the science establishment’s means of publishing are not easily accessible to the outsiders.
    This is simply not true. The ‘obstacle’ is called quality, that is: the paper must satisfy a set of requirements in that department. Include description of the data, its uncertainty and limitations. The method of analysis should be set out clearly, including statistical significance, if any. If possible, the physical mechanism should be described. Its viability in terms of energy should be discussed. Reference to other works relevant to the paper should be included. In short, there is homework to be done. This is where you fall short.
    It appears I am on stage two, might have to wait for long time if ever for the third stage, but signs are promising.
    The easiest one to fool is yourself.

  50. Leif Svalgaard says:
    October 16, 2010 at 6:47 am
    The easiest one to fool is yourself.

    Hi Leif! Yes! Indeed. AGW might become the best example of (self) delusion in science. It is not so common that scientists deliberately are cheating – “religious and other emotional convictions drive scientists, despite what they may think their motivations are”.
    http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/805-agw-revisited.html
    If you have time read this article Leif:
    http://www.geoportalen.no/bjorkum/klimaforskningen/
    Men formen den vitenskapelige debatten har hatt de siste ti årene, og måten man har forholdt seg til alternative forklaringer på, og ikke minst samrøret mellom politikk og forskning, gjør at vi kan være vitne til vitenskapshistoriens største kollektive (selv)bedrag.
    Surely both sides in the debate are fooling themselves – we are in the early beginning of climate science with trial and error and random results.

  51. Invariant says:
    October 16, 2010 at 7:35 am
    Re: The easiest one to fool is yourself.
    But the experts can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones they concentrate on, the others they fight tooth and nail. I often fool myself with one thing or another, but I am not so often fooled by others. Have you ever heard of that notorious double agent the bird called cuckoo. Well, I am paid by AGW lobby to present all sorts of ‘ridiculous theories’, so the CO2 can have free run.
    Are you fooled?
    Of course not.
    Merits a thought!

  52. Anthony
    In the earlier old link to Cooks logs (2008) I notice you had put a comment about storms in cold periods.
    I have been researching this area for some time with a view to a possible article but there is no doubt that there are many more examples of life threatening and violent storms in cold periods than there are in warm periods.
    Many of these events were collected in Hubert Lambs classic book ‘Historc storms of the North Sea, British Isles and Northwest Europe. ISBN 0-521-61931-9.
    Some of it is online;
    http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=P4n1z9rOh5MC&pg=PA44&lpg=PA44&dq=jet+stream+and+H+Lamb&source=bl&ots=esy1NPuOVK&sig=8znmDQOYeh3A9vo_nFwgbhJ9TdM&hl=en&ei=5erhSszZJMarjAffzsDCAQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CA4Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=&f=false
    Many other authors document these storms as well but Lamb does it very succinctly. I can see no evidence that ‘warm’ weather has the most violent storms.
    However, perhaps someone here can point me to a peer reviewed article that proves the warm weather equals more storms hypothesis?
    tonyb

  53. vukcevic says:
    October 16, 2010 at 10:01 am
    But the experts can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones they concentrate on, the others they fight tooth and nail.
    What kind of silly paranoid nonsense is that?

  54. Phil’s Dad says:
    October 15, 2010 at 9:38 am
    Could I suggest that anyone who gets involved in this make their findings public so that any “adjustments” to the collated result can be spotted?
    So you’re having doubts too, like me. It’s going to be hard to justify adjustments on this one though because so many public eyes will be on it. The adjustments that we are accustomed to in ‘global warming’ have been done behind closed doors, and even then they were noticeable. 🙂

  55. I find it hard to believe that these 24 years of ships’ logs are “it”. I’m no scholar of seagoing records, but I know that logbooks have been kept since before the spice trade started taking British, Dutch, Spanish and Portugese ships around the world, in the depths of the Little Ice Age.
    Accurate temperature readings may not be found that far back, but anecdotal information from which qualitative data may be inferred will be present throughout, as mariners have always been keen observers of such things, for upon such information they staked their own survival.
    Giles Milton had little difficulty accessing reams of penetrating insights from ships logs for his wonderful book (highly recommended reading!) about the British spice traders, Nathaniel’s Nutmeg. I doubt much large-scale crowdsourcing is required here — what they need is a few dozen dedicated and patient volunteer transcribers for the project they have begun. They may need a couple of hundred to cover all of british maritime records back to 1500. And perhaps a small crowd of about the same size for Dutch, Portugese and Spanish logs.

  56. Hi, how can I contact you? Do you have an email, a facebook profile or something? I need to ask you something, if I may. thanks. in the meantime, have a nice day. -instantempo
    [Reply: The best place to post this question is in Tips & Notes. ~dbs, mod.]

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