Length of day correlated to cosmic rays and sunspots

From techno-science.net This tip came in on our tip & notes page, and at first I was quite surprised because I could not see a possible mechanism for it. Then as I read the translation (from French) it started to make more sense. I’ll point out my friend Jim Goodridge published an essay on WUWT about correlation of the PDO and  rainfall with LOD: California Climate, PDO, LOD, and Sunspot Departure

Here’s the graph from the current article of interest:

And here’s some excerpts describing possible mechanisms:

Some authors, notably Bourget et al (1992), had begun to reveal correlations between solar activity and the length of day, and more recently, Abarca del Rio et al (2003) and Winkelnkemper (2008) in his thesis noted that the amplitude of the component semi-annual (6 months period) of the length of day and atmospheric angular momentum were anti-correlated with changes in the same period of the ” solar constant (the solar constant expresses the amount of solar energy (actually a lighting power) which would be one …) “.

What could be the link between certain changes in day length, the zonal winds and solar activity? To help answer this question, The Mouël and colleagues analyzed a series of 48 years (from 1962 to 2009) of daily measurements of the length of day, the service provided by the International Earth Rotation and systems reference located at the Observatoire de Paris. They have extracted the component of period 6 months and showed significant variations in the amplitude of this component, about 30%, they compared the one hand the number of sunspots (the Wolf number, a traditional indicator of solar activity measured for several centuries) and also the flux of galactic cosmic ray.

The authors show a good correlation between these three parameters, more precisely (Figure), it is the evolution of cosmic rays and the amplitude of the semi-annual day length are correlated (correlation coefficient the order of 0.7), and are in phase. The correlation is improved when we remove the curve (In geometry, the word curve or curved line designates certain subsets of the plan, the usual space. ,…) example of day length linear trend which could be related to phenomena occurring in the nucleus. It is established also that variations in cosmic rays are out of phase with sunspots and shifted about a year (this is attributed to the mechanism of modulation of galactic cosmic rays by the solar wind (solar wind is a stream plasma consisting essentially of ions and electrons are ejected from the high …) and its magnetic field).

How the speed of rotation of the Earth can it be sensitive to the modulation of cosmic rays?

The answer is in the system of winds. Those who contribute most to the seasonal variations of angular momentum are the winds of relatively low altitude (Altitude is the vertical elevation of a place or object relative to a baseline.) below 30km . Taking an average over a year (A year is a unit expressing the duration of time between two occurrences of an event linked to the revolution …), the difference between radiation (Radiation is energy transfer under form of waves or particles, which can occur by radiation …) received from the Sun ((weight percent)) and one that is emitted by the Earth outward into the great length of wave (A wave is the propagation of a disturbance occurring on its passage a reversible variation of properties …) (IR) is positive towards the equator and negative beyond 40 degrees latitude (Latitude is an angular value, expression north-south position of a point on Earth (or another …).

This latitude gradient must be balanced by a flow of energy (in the common sense energy means anything that allows a work, making the heat, …) from the equator to the poles: the transportation (transport, from the Latin trans, beyond, and portare wearing is wearing something, or someone one, a place …) is provided by the Southern movements (that is to say along the geographic meridians) of the atmosphere, averaged in longitude (Longitude is an angular value, expressing the position east-west from a point on Earth (or another …), and eddies. The zonal winds are the result of this transport because of conservation of angular momentum: going to the poles is approached the axis of rotation of the Earth and changes in this distance must be compensated by changes in speed. The seasonal variations in insolation lead to variations of the same period of the carriage along the meridians and, from there, the mean zonal winds.

There is another route by which clouds can be affected: the atmosphere is indeed penetrated by a vertical electric current of a few nano-Ampere per square meter (the meter (the meter (symbol m, the Greek metron, measure) is the basic unit of length in the International System. … It is defined) square (a square is a regular polygon with four sides is a quadrilateral that is both a rectangle (it a. ..) ( symbol m) is the unit area of the international system.), which fluctuates with the ionospheric currents and therefore the solar activity. These vertical currents electrically charged clouds and, again, change their micro-physical state. Both mechanisms can indeed co-exist. What characterizes them is that those variations induced by solar activity is measured in tenths of a percent and not in parts per thousand. That’s where the important niche amplification (We are talking about force amplifier for a whole range of systems that amplify the efforts: mechanics ,…) of the phenomenon.

Thus, the Earth (specifically the mantle), the rotation is accelerated or slowed according to the fluctuations of cosmic rays under the influence of solar activity through the zonal winds, provide a wonderful device integration variations in atmospheric angular momentum and zonal wind circulation that it is difficult to measure directly.

Full article and translation here

h/t to WUWT reader Steward

What could be the link between certain changes in day length, the zonal winds and solar activity?

Pour tenter de répondre à cette question, Le Mouël et ses collègues ont analysé une série de 48 années (de 1962 à 2009) de mesures journalières de la longueur du jour, fournies par le service international de la rotation de la Terre et des systèmes de référence situé à l’Observatoire de Paris. To help answer this question, The Mouël and colleagues analyzed a series of 48 years (from 1962 to 2009) of daily measurements of the length of day, the service provided by the International Earth Rotation and systems reference located at the Observatoire de Paris. Ils en ont extrait la composante de période 6 mois et ont mis en évidence de fortes variations de l’amplitude de cette composante, de l’ordre de 30%, qu’ils ont comparé d’une part au nombre de taches solaires (le nombre de Wolf, un indicateur traditionnel de l’activité solaire mesuré depuis plusieurs siècles) et d’autre part au flux de rayon cosmiques galactiques. They have extracted the component of period 6 months and showed significant variations in the amplitude of this component, about 30%, they compared the one hand the number of sunspots (the Wolf number, a traditional indicator of solar activity measured for several centuries) and also the flux of galactic cosmic ray.

Les auteurs mettent en évidence une bonne corrélation entre ces trois paramètres, plus précisément (Figure), ce sont les évolutions des rayons cosmiques et de l’amplitude de la composante semi-annuelle de la longueur du jour qui sont corrélées (coefficient de corrélation de l’ordre de 0,7), et qui sont en phase. The authors show a good correlation between these three parameters, more precisely (Figure), it is the evolution of cosmic rays and the amplitude of the semi-annual day length are correlated (correlation coefficient the order of 0.7), and are in phase. La corrélation est améliorée quand on retire à la courbe de la longueur du jour une tendance linéaire, qui pourrait être liée à des phénomènes se produisant dans le noyau. The correlation is improved when we remove the curve (In geometry, the word curve or curved line designates certain subsets of the plan, the usual space. ,…) example of day length linear trend which could be related to phenomena occurring in the nucleus. Il est établi par ailleurs que les variations des rayons cosmiques sont en opposition de phase avec les taches solaires et décalées d’environ un an (ceci est attribué au mécanisme de modulation des rayons cosmiques galactiques par le vent solaire et son champ magnétique). It is established also that variations in cosmic rays are out of phase with sunspots and shifted about a year (this is attributed to the mechanism of modulation of galactic cosmic rays by the solar wind (solar wind is a stream plasma consisting essentially of ions and electrons are ejected from the high …) and its magnetic field).

Comment la vitesse de rotation de la Terre peut-elle donc être sensible à la modulation des rayons cosmiques ? How the speed of rotation of the Earth can it be sensitive to the modulation of cosmic rays?

La réponse est dans le système des vents. The answer is in the system of winds. Ceux qui contribuent le plus aux variations saisonnières du moment angulaire sont les vents de relativement basse altitude , en dessous de 30km. Those who contribute most to the seasonal variations of angular momentum are the winds of relatively low altitude (Altitude is the vertical elevation of a place or object relative to a baseline.) below 30km . Prise en moyenne sur une année , la différence entre le rayonnement reçu du Soleil et celui qui est réémis par la Terre vers l’extérieur dans les grandes longueur d’ onde (infra-rouge) est positif vers l’équateur et négatif au delà de 40° de latitude . Ce gradient en latitude doit être équilibré par un flux d’ énergie de l’équateur vers les pôles: ce transport est assuré par les mouvements méridionaux (c’est-à-dire le long des méridiens géographiques) de l’atmosphère, moyennés en longitude , et les tourbillons. Les vents zonaux sont la conséquence de ce transport à cause de la conservation du moment angulaire: en allant vers les pôles on se rapproche de l’axe de rotation de la Terre et les changements de cette distance doivent être compensés par des changements de la vitesse. Les variations saisonnières d’insolation entraînent des variations de même période du transport le long des méridiens et, partant de là, de la moyenne des vents zonaux. Taking an average over a year (A year is a unit expressing the duration of time between two occurrences of an event linked to the revolution …), the difference between radiation (Radiation is energy transfer under form of waves or particles, which can occur by radiation …) received from the Sun ((weight percent)) and one that is emitted by the Earth outward into the great length of wave (A wave is the propagation of a disturbance occurring on its passage a reversible variation of properties …) (IR) is positive towards the equator and negative beyond 40 degrees latitude (Latitude is an angular value, expression north-south position of a point on Earth (or another …). This latitude gradient must be balanced by a flow of energy (in the common sense energy means anything that allows a work, making the heat, …) from the equator to the poles: the transportation (transport, from the Latin trans, beyond, and portare wearing is wearing something, or someone one, a place …) is provided by the Southern movements (that is to say along the geographic meridians) of the atmosphere, averaged in longitude (Longitude is an angular value, expressing the position east-west from a point on Earth (or another …), and eddies. The zonal winds are the result of this transport because of conservation of angular momentum: going to the poles is approached the axis of rotation of the Earth and changes in this distance must be compensated by changes in speed. The seasonal variations in insolation lead to variations of the same period of the carriage along the meridians and, from there, the mean zonal winds.

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October 7, 2010 4:10 pm

vukcevic says:
October 7, 2010 at 2:30 pm
p.s. you may find eventually that NAP is not that silly at all, magnetic field is not the engine, just a rev-counter
I don’t think so. The currents that might be responsible are much too feeble, but I know that physics is not your strong side, so carry on with the entertainment.

October 8, 2010 12:14 am

Keep the graph, it may be only reasonably accurate 10Be record you may find for the Dalton minimum period. I did not say what NAP is …..

October 8, 2010 8:05 am

This just in:
ftp://tai.bipm.org/iers/conv2010/tn36.pdf
It is the latest ‘convention’ on Earth Orientation Parameters, especially the LOD [in chapter 8].

October 9, 2010 5:16 am

Went through McCracken paper (2007) again; have you got a link to the dipole strength data, you and the solar fraternity use for 1600-to present (preferably annual) ?
Thanks.

October 9, 2010 6:05 am

vukcevic says:
October 9, 2010 at 5:16 am
Went through McCracken paper (2007) again; have you got a link to the dipole strength data, you and the solar fraternity use for 1600-to present (preferably annual) ?

which dipole?

October 9, 2010 6:23 am

The Earth’s geomagnetic dipole.
quote: “The data have been adjusted to remove the effects due to the long-term change in the geomagnetic dipole.”

October 9, 2010 6:33 am

vukcevic says:
October 9, 2010 at 5:16 am
Went through McCracken paper (2007) again; have you got a link to the dipole strength data, you and the solar fraternity use for 1600-to present (preferably annual) ?
Assuming you mean that of the Earth, a good source is here:
http://jupiter.ethz.ch/~cfinlay/gufm1/model/gufm1_epochs/
click on each year to get the value for that year, e.g. for 1973:
1973.00 mf
14 -4 1973.00
-0.301444570312E+05 -0.203294860840E+04 0.570135839844E+04 -0.185369750977E+04
The first number on the third line [-0.30144…] is the dipole strength, -30144.457 nT
extending the data:
http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/research/geospace/presentations/pub_store/serial106.pdf
For your purposes [?] simple linear extrapolation past 1990 will do.

October 9, 2010 6:47 am

vukcevic says:
October 9, 2010 at 5:16 am
Went through McCracken paper (2007) again; have you got a link to the dipole strength data, you and the solar fraternity use for 1600-to present (preferably annual) ?
Lots of good [very recent] stuff here:
http://www.isaes2011.org.uk/research/geospace/presentations/Edinburgh_2010.html

October 9, 2010 6:54 am

vukcevic says:
October 9, 2010 at 5:16 am
Went through McCracken paper (2007) again; have you got a link to the dipole strength data, you and the solar fraternity use for 1600-to present (preferably annual) ?
Fig. 3 of http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/research/geospace/presentations/pub_store/Whaler_100920.pdf
shows the very large uncertainties in the estimates….

October 9, 2010 7:37 am

vukcevic says:
October 9, 2010 at 5:16 am
Went through McCracken paper (2007) again; have you got a link to the dipole strength data, you and the solar fraternity use for 1600-to present (preferably annual) ?
My own version [combination of GUFM1 and IGRF] since 1900 is
1900 -31518
1905 -31430
1910 -31325
1915 -31188
1920 -31045
1925 -30914
1930 -30797
1935 -30709
1940 -30652
1945 -30601
1950 -30559
1955 -30504
1960 -30428
1965 -30332
1970 -30217
1975 -30101
1980 -29991
1985 -29872
1990 -29773
1995 -29692
2000 -29619
2005 -29555
2010 -29497
For intermediate years linear interpolation is sufficient.

October 9, 2010 7:42 am

vukcevic says:
October 9, 2010 at 5:16 am
Went through McCracken paper (2007) again; have you got a link to the dipole strength data, you and the solar fraternity use for 1600-to present (preferably annual) ?
You should have little difficulty enjoying this:
http://www.sci.muni.cz/~chadima/geomagnetismus/Geomagnetismus1.pdf

Pamela Gray
October 9, 2010 7:51 am

Leif, I appreciated the delineation of model types (reduction, conventional, useful). I wonder if climate and weather models are so delineated. I know that these models can be classified as either statistical or dynamical (as in the ENSO El Nino model sets). But I appreciate the model type system outlined in the link you provided as having functional utility to climatology. Yes?

October 9, 2010 7:53 am

vukcevic says:
October 9, 2010 at 5:16 am
Went through McCracken paper (2007) again; have you got a link to the dipole strength data, you and the solar fraternity use for 1600-to present (preferably annual) ?
Last, but not least: an understanding of the physics id important. Good material here:
http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/SP_1279_6_Swarm.pdf
See pages 12-15 on LOD and the few nT ocean effect.

October 9, 2010 8:12 am

Pamela Gray says:
October 9, 2010 at 7:51 am
the link you provided as having functional utility to climatology. Yes?
Which link?

October 9, 2010 10:43 am

Leif Svalgaard says:
………..
Thank you for the data and links. Goes and Swarm articles are useful.
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/documents/wmm_2005.pdf
is far more informative than Czech version except for couple of extra maps.
The intention is add the difference between GM dipole and local field to the McC’s numbers ( 1800-1830 for start, shouldn’t take to long just 30 samples) and than take away NAP, which is not same as the gmf but it is loosely (inverted) correlated to it. I shal inform you about result.
One interesting point: Tambora and Mayon appear caused dip in McC data, while Kamchatka in 1830 had opposite effect, a big spike.
Thanks again.

October 9, 2010 2:34 pm

Result is a bit more realistic for SC4, (to be left on back burner).
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-Mc1.gif

October 10, 2010 5:34 am

vukcevic says: October 9, 2010 at 2:34 pm
The above link should be:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-Mca.htm

thefordprefect
October 10, 2010 7:03 am

Lucy Skywalker says:
October 4, 2010 at 6:52 pm
Fascinating. Clearly LOD does correlate with solar cycles. Some time I hope to read up more.

But WHERE is the correlation:
http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/387/lodsunspot.png
LOD here
http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/
SSN here
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/MONTHLY

October 10, 2010 10:07 am

thefordprefect says:
October 10, 2010 at 7:03 am
But WHERE is the correlation:
http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/387/lodsunspot.png

Nowhere, of course.
You have to torture the data first. The LOD has many periodic components. In particular there is one with a period of six months. The claimed correlation is between the amplitude of that particular one and the sunspot number. No mention of why just that one [out of the multitude of other ones] shows any correlation.

October 10, 2010 11:19 am

After Greenland gmf (instead of dipole) correction of McCracken data here is Dalton minimum by 10Be.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-Mca.htm

October 10, 2010 2:50 pm

vukcevic says:
October 10, 2010 at 11:19 am
After Greenland gmf (instead of dipole) correction of McCracken data here is Dalton minimum by 10Be.
Unjustified junk.

October 11, 2010 12:53 am

Leif Svalgaard says: October 10, 2010 at 2:50 pm
………………….
You may not like the idea, but the facts do not care for opinions, and the fact is that NAP is a very important factor, with its effect built in the McCracken data. I shall email details to him. I expect similar response; the aim is not concord but a test of the science’s integrity.
Difference between the Earth’s magnetic dipole and Greenland’s gmf gradient (1780-1840) is only 1.8%, so its contribution is a minor factor and for simplicity can be left out.
Consequence is serious: radioactive isotopes dating calculations need reassessment.
Here it is again:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-Mca.htm

October 11, 2010 8:02 pm

vukcevic says:
October 11, 2010 at 12:53 am
Consequence is serious: radioactive isotopes dating calculations need reassessment.
The way to do this is by getting more and better ice cores, not by ad-hoc monkeying with shaky data. You are out of your depth here and I doubt Ken M will take any notice of your nonsense.

October 13, 2010 2:02 am

I am not interested in your rude outbursts here or elsewhere.
I am not particularly concerned if there is or no response from Dr. McCracken. Since I am looking into odd corners of science where there is data available, if I come across something of interest, causal or coincidental, I consider it my duty to bring it to the attention of the author, if identifiable and contactable, and put it in public domain. His response may be similar to yours about the sun’s polar magnetic field, all depending on degree of author’s paranoia about their output.
I have no emotional attachment to what I write, I am prepared to formulate an idea on bases of data, but if I find contradictory evidence, I am just as likely to discard it.
On matter of NAP, I found data closely relating to CETs (convincing me that the gmf is just a usefull pointer, but I do not know why) some time before I came across McCracken data.
I do not think that the better ice cores could change anything, it is factor that the ice core data is good, that NAP variable is absorbed and so confirms existing records of the physical process which in no way can be caused or affected by the GCR and afterfacts, similarly there is no evidence that NAP can be affected by climatic or temperature events.

October 13, 2010 3:53 am

vukcevic says:
October 13, 2010 at 2:02 am
I consider it my duty to bring it to the attention of the author, if identifiable and contactable, and put it in public domain.
There is already enough junk on the Internet. Consider my comments as peer review [which your ideas do not pass]. You have no ‘duty’ to pollute various forums.