UPDATE: 8AM PST 9/13/10 JAXA has updated with their final Sept 12th data, up for the second straight day there’s been a gain:
The latest value : The latest value : 5,005,000 km2 (September 12, 2010 final data)
While the vagaries of wind and weather can still produce an about-face, indications are that the 2010 Arctic sea ice melt season may have turned the corner, earlier than last year.
In the JAXA data, there was a gain of 33,593 km2 in a single day on 9/11/10 and another gain of 18, 594 km2 on 09/12/10 (final data):
09,08,2010,4989375 09,09,2010,4972656 09,10,2010,4952813 09,11,2010,4986406 09,12,2010,5005000
Last year, when I correctly called the turn, it was September 14th:
Arctic sea ice melt appears to have turned the corner for 2009
I wrote:
That is a gain of almost 26,719 km2 from the Sept 13th value of 5, 249, 844 km2 which may very well turn out to be the minimum extent for 2009.
And it is not just the JAXA plot that indicates a turn the corner bump for 2010. The DMI 30% extent graph is showing a very sharp uptick.
Here is the relevant area zoomed and annotated:
ADDENDUM: Last year’s DMI graph about this time had similarly abrupt uptick:
Temperatures at 80°N and above are now dropping quickly, after some delay:
The annotations are mine, the current temperature is approximately -5.5° C. I say approximately, as DMI doesn’t make the data available here, only the graphical output, so I’ve had to draw a line and estimate based on the coarse scale they provide. Seawater freezes at a temperature of -1.9° C (source here) but varies with salinity. Call it -2° C, but clearly now air temperatures are cold enough above 80°N to expect some refreezing.
The NSIDC Arctic extent plot shows the beginning of a flattening, but since their smoothing algorithm adds a reporting delay, we won’t see the turn (if it holds) until about two days from now.
NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or greater – click to enlarge
If it is indeed the turn, then Arctic Sea Ice minimum for 2010 will end up at 4,952,813 km2
I may make a follow up post and have a look at all the forecast players mid to late week if the turn is confirmed. Of course my forecast has been proven incorrect already, but then, so have others.
Polar weather forecasts suggest colder weather ahead, and historically, the timing is right for a turn.
One such indicator is the Arctic Oscillation, shown below:
Source, NOAA Climate Prediction Center:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
The forecast shows a deepening AO in the next few days, which traditionally means colder temperatures and a refreeze.
So, we’ll watch and wait, and I’ll update if the turn is confirmed.
In response to one of my “if ” statements, a very wise old gent from Texas, with whom I used to work, once opined to me that: “If a frog had wings, he wouldn’t flop his butt on the ground.”
u.k.(us):
September 12, 2010 at 5:40 pm
After three strikes, I’m out! Does anyone know a simple way to get a reliable way to get a small image on the internet so I can show a link? Tinypic doesn’t seems not to be it. It gives me a link. I put it on Word, press on the link, it works. Write the comment, post it, it doesn’t work, deleted I guess. My first one on Test Page failed but I thought I had it handled. Frustrating.
REPLY: Don’t post it into Word. MS Word is probably changing the link somehow. Find it on tinypic, highlight in address bar of browser, copy/paste into a WUWT comment box and let’s see if that works -Anthony
Oliver Ramsay writes,
“There is nothing wobbly about a spiral. Its progress in the y axis is uniform, it just rotates as it descends.”
Jon P writes,
“So when the “plane” (Artic Sea Ice) started it’s “death spiral” and got down to 4,250 feet (2007) then pulled up to 4700ft (2008) and up again to 5,210ft (2009) and lost a little altitude in 2010 at 4952ft (although not a final number) and you call that a death spiral?”
Are we taking the metaphor so literally? Ice does not really experience “death,” either. Serezze could equally have said (and probably has), “Due to positive feedbacks, Arctic Ocean ice cover is wobbling down toward a seasonally ice-free state.”
Although that’s not as catchy; he’s got a sense of humor.
And my apologies to the man, I’ve been spelling Serreze wrong.
History tells us that there was no AGW feedback spiral in the past so why should warm southerly WINDS be a spiral? Ignoring your spiral speak for a moment, where is your evidence that the melting is caused by man-made co2??????????
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/278/5341/1257
http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/08/29/papers-on-1500-year-climatic-cycle/
Here is what the warmists at NASA think about melting Arctic ice (negative feedback in the form of more clouds and more albedo).
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticReflector/arctic_reflector.php
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticReflector/arctic_reflector2.php
“So in addition to changing sea ice, we can kind of guess that something must be happening in the atmosphere over the Arctic, too.” Clouds are bright, too, and an increase in clouds could cancel out the impact of melting snow and ice on polar albedo.”
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticReflector/arctic_reflector4.php
“Although sea ice and snow cover had noticeably declined in the Arctic from 2000 to 2004, there had been no detectable change in the albedo measured at the top of the atmosphere: the proportion of light the Arctic reflected hadn’t changed. In other words, the ice albedo feedback that most climate models predict will ultimately amplify global warming apparently hadn’t yet kicked in.”
“According to the MODIS observations, cloud fraction had increased at a rate of 0.65 percent per year between 2000 and 2004. If the trend continues, it will amount to a relative increase of about 6.5 percent per decade. At least during this short time period, says Kato, increased cloudiness in the Arctic appears to have offset the expected decline in albedo from melting sea ice and snow.”
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/pub/gorodetskaya/irina_ipccpaper.pdf
“The predicted substantial decrease in Arctic summer sea ice concentrations during the twenty-first century may favor cloud formation, which should diminish or even cancel the ice-albedo feedback by shielding the surface.”
“Water droplets are more effective in reflecting and absorbing solar radiation than nonspherical, typically larger ice crystals (Dong et al. 2001).”
Oliver Ramsay says:
September 12, 2010 at 5:31 pm
Gneiss says:
“If Serezze had meant a monotonic decline he would have said “free fall,” not “spiral,” which is a more wobbly image — exactly as we are seeing.”
————–
This is the problem! People see wobbles where there aren’t any.
There is nothing wobbly about a spiral. Its progress in the y axis is uniform, it just rotates as it descends.
I imagine the expression originated with aircraft shot down in the (probably) WW1.
Not an apt description, but plenty evocative.
But Oliver, you are somewhat right about the spiral, however, if I can ever get the image to my graph mentioned above I will show you exactly, it is a more a screw. From 2002 to 2007 it was cutting threads so very precise like a fine lathe, BUT, in 2008 it started screwing back out, and, just as precisely! Now this slip in 2010 looks figurative as if it is just that, a slipped thread, and it looks like that! Will it continue to cut the threads back out? Will it cut them in? Will it slip again? Guess we have to wait till next summer for the games to begin ☺!! It is intriguing.
Gneiss says:
September 12, 2010 at 6:02 pm
How many straws did you grasp! That was amazing effort!
Jon P says:
September 12, 2010 at 5:46 pm
“So when the “plane” (Artic Sea Ice) started it’s “death spiral” and got down to 4,250 feet (2007) then pulled up to 4700ft (2008) and up again to 5,210ft (2009) and lost a little altitude in 2010 at 4952ft (although not a final number) and you call that a death spiral?”
==================
Sounds like a typical flight in Alaska, I think there is an extra charge, for a “death spiral”. 😉
Ok Anthony, try four, directly from TinyPics edit control to comment box:
( it might be because I really don’t want to open an “account” there but they do say it doesn’t matter, and, putting in Word is just the letters of the link, oh well, shouldn’t matter)
JAXA sine and trend removed:
http://i51.tinypic.com/2s7euly.jpg
Jon P writes,
“How many straws did you grasp! That was amazing effort!”
None, so far as I know. What was it that amazed you?
Prediction:
Global Sea Ice Maximum for 2010 will top 21.5 M km^2.
See you in November-Decemberish.
Gneiss says:
September 12, 2010 at 4:59 pm
Jimbo writes (and many others express similar sentiments),
“This is of course hardly any sort of ‘death spiral’.”
But it is. The spiral is still on.
This year’s weak extent and melting of multiyear ice are totally consistent with that decline. They are not at all consistent with any return towards the satellite-period mean.”
How about the natural climate cycles like the PDO and AMO. I guess they’ve played no part in whats happened eh?
This years decline is consistent with positive PDO and AMO values. This is something which has really dominated the past decade. The period from 1980 to 2000 saw at least a negative AMO coupled with positive PDO. This combination saw a steady rate of ice loss but the rate of loss accelerated in the past decade when both the AMO and PDO were positive together for a significant portion of the decade.
We saw loss in extent for the majority of the past decade with the exception of 2008 and 2009 when lo and behold the PDO went negative.
Talk to me about a death spiral when we go through a decade where both the PDO and AMO are predominantly negative.
Here is how I see the impact of the PDO and AMO.
(A) Positive AMO and PDO = highest reduction in extent
(B) Positive AMO and Negative PDO = modest increase in extent
(C) Negative AMO and Positive PDO = modest reduction in extent
(D) Negative AMO and Negative PDO = highest increase in extent
2008 and 2009 were scenario B and we saw the extent increase. 2010 was pretty much scenario A and we saw a reduction in extent (as were 2002 to 2006).
As for 2011, I would say were looking pretty clearly at scenario B. PDO is going solidly negative but at this time the AMO is still sitting on strong positive values.
Incidentally the last time, both PDO and AMO values were concurrently negative were from about 1964 to the late 1970’s which coincides with when the MSM were all discussing the possibility of a coming ice age.
Gneiss says:
September 12, 2010 at 6:02 pm
Well when you say, “Ice does not really experience “death,” either. “, the “either” must mean it is not a spiral. So if it’s not “death”, not a “spiral” nor a “death spiral”, why do you continue to twist on this point? Just say it with me, “Death Spiral is not an apt metaphor for the state of the Artic Sea Ice”, and move on.
David W says:
September 12, 2010 at 6:52 pm
Interesting information. Have link(s)?
David W, about 10 or 15 years back, quite a few Arctic researchers considered that the Arctic changes widely noticed by research in the 1990s might be due to oscillations such as AO, NAO, or PDO. Most have abandoned that hypothesis because the evidence just didn’t support it. Oscillations were oscillating, sometimes affecting year-to-year variation, but they did not predict the longer-term warming trend.
If you think you’ve got a model that you can show fits past variation well and offers testable predictions for the future, start by reading up on what has already been tried. You might be surprised how much research has been done in this direction. But if you still believe you have something new, beyond what’s been tested and found wanting, by all means do the math, write it up, and send your best work in to one of the journals read by Arctic scientists.
Jimbo says:
September 12, 2010 at 4:21 pm
and in February
R. Gates says: February 9, 2010 at 2:44 pm
All this, combined with record amounts of CO2 and methane. Though I still think 2010 summer sea ice mimimum will come in right around 3 million sq. km, but a tiny bit above 2007′s summer minimum.
Amazingly accurate: lowest so far this year 3.0721295, 2007 2.9978635 about 2.5% above the record minimum.
EFS_Junior says:
September 12, 2010 at 2:12 pm
So the next time I go gambling at the Roulette wheel, I’ll take you with me, because you’re sure to guess the right numbers for the next seven months.
In other words if there are enough people at the table, all the numbers are likely to be covered.
And one of those numbers will, of course, be correct.
Folks, we have a weiner!
Here’s one for you, take JAXA minima (2002-9), throw out 2007, because, well it was an outlier, you know, and what do you get?
You’re kidding, right?
You dismiss Alexej’s prediction as mere gambling, but then you say 2007 should be thrown out as an “outlier”. I’m sorry, but you are just as guilty of gaming the situation. When you have a system where the total content from one year significantly determines the total content in subsequent years, you can’t legitimately negate an outlier. And this system relies on not only the mass of accumulated ice, but also on the accumulated thermal energy of polar waters.
wayne says:
September 12, 2010 at 6:34 pm
A most interesting picture is portrayed there.
Apparently, prior to 2007, most of the time was spent equally above & below the zero line.
After 2007, most of the time the ice is above the zero line.
The “Death Spiral” is pinned on the extreme low points, of which the least amount of time the Ice Extent/Area is spending.
It’s an inferred tipping point, as if, somehow, once the Arctic is Ice Free in September, The Winter Ice-up cannot ever attain normal due to warmer waters.
Anthony, your correct. It must have to do with the clipboard internal format when you copy then paste. Well, the link works from this side in Sea Ice News and I’ll assume a click by others works too. Thanks for the help, … I’m now free !!! … A picture saves a thousand works right? Also saves at least ten comments back that still can’t describe what your point is you are trying to convey. ☺
Personally, I think AGW is one of the bigger scams ever foisted on humanity. Whether I’m right or not is beside the point, and if the Arctic is ice free in 2, 5 or 20 years, I’ll still probably thing AGW is a scam, because it bears the earmarks of a scam, and I will attribute the declining ice pack to the warming that’s been occurring since the end of the Little Ice Age that Mann tried to obliterate with his Hockey Stick nonsense (one of the earmarks of the scam, by the way.)
So why follow the Arctic ice at all if a downward spiral won’t convince me of the “truth” of AGW? Because the AGW crowd has staked their theory on the ice extent, essentially. While I certainly hope the recovery from the Little Ice Age isn’t ending yet, it would almost be worth it to put the final nail in the AGW coffin, though it’s hard to believe the Climategate emails weren’t sufficient to nail it shut and safely secure it six feet under ground several months ago.
The AGW theory, at least as presented by AGW believers here, simply won’t withstand a prolonged recovery of Arctic ice. If it does recover, the theory is toast. Hence, my interest. It will put an early end to the scam. If it does continue to “spiral” downward (something the last three years already make it somewhat difficult to claim with a straight face) then we will get to see if that magic tipping point actually occurs, with warming accelerating due to the lack of ice albedo, etc.
At times I wonder if we shouldn’t just cover the Arctic with soot in February, crisscross it with icebreakers spreading salt all summer long, and get rid of all the ice so we could see if the doomsayers are onto something. If we make it through just fine, we’d save a ton of tax dollars in the end. And if we don’t, well, it’s too late to do anything anyway, right?
5001406 – looks encouraging! Will it stick? Hmm.
” but I’m thinking that we will post another gain for the 12th & if it drops down the road it won’t get down to the 10th’s min..So the 10th it is!!?..I think that would be good news for a good recovery.”..(Fishnski Quote)
JAXA up another 15000…..Here is another Predict….The skins will Scalp the Cowboys!
… An unseasonably warm week ahead for northern Alaska…
A large ridge of high pressure aloft more typical in mid-Summer
will remain in place across northern Alaska this week. The ridge
will keep the interior dry and mostly clear with well above
average temperatures. High temperatures this week in most areas
will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. The warm weather
will extend all the way north to the Arctic coast where highs are
expected to be between 55 and 65 degrees… warmest inland.
Temperatures may approach record highs this week at Fairbanks. The
record high temperatures this week range from 71 to 75 degrees. By
comparison the average high temperature this time of year at
Fairbanks is 56 degrees. Here are the record high temperatures at
Fairbanks this week and the year that they were established.
I noticed a slight relaxing of the colder temps at the Ice edge on the Pacific side so when I Cked out the F-cast for Barrow,AK I saw this…The temps are very cold on either side of & north of Greenland & air temps as cold as -6/7 along those Islands between Svalbard & the russian side so maybe those temps will help offset the abnormally high pacific side….confirmed…cowbow scalping..good nite!
– 6/7 Celcius..Sorry.
R. Gates says:
September 12, 2010 at 9:33 am
I will be curious to see how AGW skeptics paint this year’s melt season.
=================================
Thanks for finally confessing.
You are not a skeptic. Not 40% not 5 %. There is no such animal.
You are a chicken little, Co2-demonizing alarmist, through and through.
You have no intention whatsoever of being open-minded and standing down when your 3 million or 4 million ice forecasts come in woefully wrong.
If you ever had the ability to admit you were wrong, it is now.
?????
The silence is deafening.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA