Open Sea Ice Thread

AndyW says:
September 3, 2010 at 11:16 pm
You forgot the word ‘drift’, which in this case, is ice.

Amino writes:
If you cannot see that Arctic ice is growing since 2007, if the data that is right in front of you isn’t showing you that, if it isn’t legible to you, then my arguments aren’t going to be legible to you either. So I’m not going to try to argue with you. I’m not in the business of trying to change the minds of people who don’t want to change their mind. All of you fellows can take your shots. Knock yourselves out. But the data will stay the same 🙂
Amino, do you not agree that the 2007 ice extent was an anomaly triggered by an anomalous circulation pattern? I believe if that same circulation pattern would have occurred again this year, the ice extent would have dropped below that of 2007. The trend in sea ice continues downwards (and continues to accelerate, you can perform your own statistics on the time-series and see that for yourself). The ice is not recovering, this year will mark the 3rd lowest ice extent in the modern satellite data record and to at least 1953 when earlier satellite data, aircraft and ship observations made good measurements of the ice cover. Even more of the old ice was depleted this summer as the old ice that was transported into the Chukchi Sea under the strong negative AO this past winter has ALL disappeared.
What 2007 was not, was a tipping point. But that does not mean the sea ice is not still in a strong decline.

Scott says:
September 3, 2010 at 4:19 pm
R. Gates says:
September 3, 2010 at 2:43 pm
The amount of warmer than normal water leads me to push the final low being set Sept. 20th to 25th.
How much warmer is the water (or how much more warm water is there) in 2010 at this time relative to 2008 (JAXA minimum on Sept 9) and 2009 (JAXA minimum on Sept 13)?
-Scott
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Good questions Scott, and not only do I not have answers, I’m really not so sure I care about the anomaly over just a few years. I care about the longest term persepctive that we have hard data. We know the waters all around the Arctic are warmer than the longer term average, as can be seen in this chart:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png
Areas like the Beaufort have been warmer than the longer term average for most of the melt season, and these kinds of warmer waters than normal lead me to thinking we’ll see a later melt season than normal as all that warm water keeps the melt season going a bit longer as all that heat must be exhausted. This warm open water also has implications for general changes in Arctic weather and circulation patterns, but that’s for another post.
2009 saw it’s low come on September 13th and today it appears that we’ve already fallen below 2009. 2008 saw the low mark hit on Sept. 9, but I think this year’s melt looks more like we’ll see the low come somewhere between the 20th and 25th., which is more similar of to the timeframe we saw in 2005 and 2007.
As I’ve said for many months, I think the so-called “recovery” of the Arctic sea ice that AGW skeptics were so excited about during 2008-2009 was more related to the long and deep solar minimum and the La Nina. Of course, this was really not much of a true recovery as we never even saw a positive Artic sea ice anomaly during this period. We are entering a more active period of solar activity (even if it is lower than normal, it is still higher than 2008-2009), and with the activity will come higher total solar irradiance. By spring of 2011, the currently developing La Nina will be over with, and we’ll be inching closer to the next solar max, with even higher total solar irradiance.
It will be very interesting to see how close we come to falling below 5 million sq. km, and then approaching 2008’s record low in the next few weeks. Those are the final marks that I see as any kind of statistical interest, as at best, the AGW skeptics can now only talk about a “recovery spiral” – 2 steps forward and one step back, etc., though the same skeptics poked fun at the notion of a “death spiral”, where it woulld be a few steps down, and then one step up. The longer term trend strongly favors the “death spiral’ being the correct dance step.

So, if this NW Passage thing is going to be a mainstay permanent thing, why not make it into an annual event, with multimillion$ purse attached? Like the Iditarod or Breakup. The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.
Now, who’s the lucky dog that made it 1st this year?

http://www.natice.nooa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2010/ims2010246_asiaeurope.gif
http://www.natice.nooa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2007/ims2007246_asiaeurope.gif
The ice looks ok to me it is above 2007 I don’t Know what you self styled experts are going on about .
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

R. Gates says:
September 4, 2010 at 9:39 am

Good questions Scott, and not only do I not have answers, I’m really not so sure I care about the anomaly over just a few years. I care about the longest term persepctive that we have hard data.

The reason I ask is that using positive SST anomalies based on a long time series to say the end of the melt season will be later (thus, saying it will cause a positive anomaly in end date) compared to more recent years is comparing apples and oranges. Now, if you say it’ll be later than the long-term (same length of time as the above) average end date, that I believe…but wasn’t the minimum in late August a few decades ago (I’m not sure if it was…can someone answer that)?
If we’re going to use SST anomalies to predict the end date, what if 2008 and 2009 showed similar positive SST anomalies? Would we then expect a similar minimum date? Or did the strong El Nino this year result in higher SSTs this year than the last two? If that’s the case, then finishing below last year’s minimum should have been expected (even if the Arctic is “recovering”). Isn’t this similar to what Charles Wilson has been saying all along?
On another note, it looks like Phil was right at least in the short term about a pickup in extent loss. At least I can be sure of my statistic now: the probability of finishing above 2009’s minimum in the JAXA record is 0.00000% now (unless there was some sort of processing error yesterday ;-).
-Scott

rbateman says:
September 4, 2010 at 9:50 am
http://www.arcticmariner.org/#thestory
http://www.arcticmariner.org/#support
All warmista trolls should also go here to support this admirable effort to inspire. Tip generously, think of it as a doom-and-gloom speader’s offset 🙂
http://www.arcticmariner.org/#help
… or if you prefer
http://www.helpforheroes.org.uk

Taking an aside for the moment from this years curve, I had often wondered about two dips from the normal curve, as per here
http://www.zen141854.zen.co.uk/dips.jpg
The reasons for these dips are as follows
“Sept. 2005 was largely wind-driven. The melt season was pretty much done, but freeze-up was slow to start. Then some winds pushed the ice together, which allowed the extent to go down more.”
“Nov. 2006 was probably due mainly to warm ocean waters. The ice grew for a while until it reached ocean waters that were above average and it couldn’t grow further until the ocean lost its heat. There may have also been some contribution by winds keeping the ice from expanding. ”
Not my own words of course, I’m too dumb, from one of well reknowned scientists who sometimes posts here.
Nice to fill in the knowledge gaps. Thanks mystery scientist !
Andy

Phil. says:
September 3, 2010 at 6:39 pm
“There’s been precious little ice there to break up this year, and a couple of Royal marines might take issue with you about following icebreakers, they just finished their ‘yomp’ from Gjoa Havn to Resolute by rowing the last 12 miles into port.”
Was Resolute their destination?
“After the success of completing two thirds of the passage last year, Kev and Tony are returning to Gjoa Haven on 11 August 2010 to meet up with their tiny boat and finish their epic journey. The ice looks thinner than last year and they have 750 miles to go to Pond Inlet, through some of the most dramatic scenery in this remote corner of the world.”
yet the website also claims
“The 2010 Arctic Mariner Expedition is now complete. Kev and Tony have arrived at Resolute Bay and are now preparing for the trip home.”
Pond Inlet is more than 500km from Resolute.
Last year they did not complete their journey after battling “worst ice conditions in over a decade”, and at one point had to haul their 17 foot rowboat over the ice for 10 miles.
http://www.arcticmariner.org/#thestory
Phil, you wouldn’t be using this example to show that the NW passage is open, would you?

Alexej Buergin says:
September 4, 2010 at 10:08 am
“R. Gates says:
September 4, 2010 at 9:39 am
It will be very interesting to see how close we come to falling below 5 million sq. km, and then approaching 2008′s record low in the next few weeks. Those are the final marks that I see as any kind of statistical interest, as at best, the AGW skeptics can now only talk about a “recovery spiral” – 2 steps forward and one step back”
The recovery does not depend on going forward every year, and my prognosis of 5 from last year was based on that fact (ice never went up 3 years in a row). And nobody calls “two steps forward, one step back” a spiral (look up what that is), but of “reculer pour mieux sauter” (look up what that is).
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Alex, neither does the death “spiral” of summer Arctic Sea ice extent depend on it going down every year, but the longest term trend is down. From the broadest perspective, a spiral is something that does not do a linear nose dive (or rise), but that fluctuates, but has an ultimate terminal point. “2 steps forward and one step back” is not an exact year by year description of what either a “recovery” spiral or “death” spiral will do, but is meant to convey exactly the same general point– an oscillation (though not specfically regular in frequency) that still is tending toward an ultimate destination. I think any clear minded person would know this term is meant in the broadest metaphorical sense. In this case of course AGW “warmists” would say that terminal point is a seasonal ice free arctic, and I suppose the AGW skeptics would see the summer ice extent returning to something near the longer term average of somewhere between 7 and 8 million sq. km. Since Arctic sea ice has not even poppped gone above the longer term average since 2004, I would say it looks like currently the death spiral is the correct spiral with the terminal point being a seasonal ice free arctic sometime in the next 20 years or so.