Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
When people say that we understand the unbelievably complex climate system well enough to project scenarios out a hundred years, I point out that new things are being discovered every week. The latest scientific finding is that plankton cause hurricanes. I know it sounds like a headline in The Onion, but there it is.
Figure 1. Phytoplankton (ocean) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (land), 3 year average. Data from SeaWIFS satellite. Green in the ocean indicates the presence of chlorophyll-containing plant plankton (phytoplankton). Image Credit NASA
The study hasn’t been published, but the publishers (AGU) have this to say: [updated link here]
Ocean’s Color Affects Hurricane Paths
AGU Release No. 10–25, 13 August 2010
For Immediate Release
WASHINGTON—A change in the color of ocean waters could have a drastic effect on the prevalence of hurricanes, new research indicates. In a simulation of such a change in one region of the North Pacific, the study finds that hurricane formation decreases by 70 percent. That would be a big drop for a region that accounts for more than half the world’s reported hurricane-force winds. …
In my opinion, the folks who wrote the headline missed the boat when they say that the color of the ocean affects hurricane paths. If their description of the study is correct (not yet published study, but description by publisher) what the study indicates is that the amount of microscopic life in the ocean affects hurricane formation. Or in other words, plankton cause hurricanes. I wonder if New Orleans residents can sue the wee timorous planktonic beasties for damages from Hurricane Katrina?
The mechanism which they propose for this increase in hurricane formation where plankton are present seems quite reasonable to this life-long sailor …
In the no-chlorophyll scenario, sunlight is able to penetrate deeper into the ocean, leaving the surface water cooler. The drop in the surface temperature in the model affects hurricane formation in three main ways: cold water provides less energy; air circulation patterns change, leading to more dry air aloft which makes it hard for hurricanes to grow.The changes in air circulation trigger strong winds aloft, which tend to prevent thunderstorms from developing the necessary superstructure that allows them to grow into hurricanes.
There’s another mechanism known to be at play as well. This is that certain common phytoplankton produce a chemical called dimethylsulfoniopropionate. Since no one can pronounce that correctly, it is always called DMSP. DMSP is an precursor chemical for the formation of aerosols that eventually become cloud nuclei. This increases cloud formation. So we have plankton helping build the clouds that cool the ocean surface.
The presence of plankton in the water warms the ocean surface. And clouds and hurricanes cool the ocean surface. What is the net effect of these two inter-related but opposed plankton-caused phenomena? Unknown, even as to sign. How does this net effect change, either annually, decadally, or longterm? Again, unknown.
Plankton emit chemicals that control the clouds in the skies, who would have guessed? And who would ever have thought that plankton would have the power to affect the formation of the world’s largest natural heat engine, tropical hurricanes? Talk about having your hand on the heat-loss throttle, control of hurricane formation by plankton has the smallest of life controlling the huge power of the largest of climate phenomena. How strange is that?
I do not bring up this study to draw any scientific conclusions from it at all. It’s far too early days for that, the study is not even published.
I bring it up to illustrate the awesome complexity of the climate, and how little we truly understand the often bizarre intricacies of how it works. Next time someone says that computers can project their tinkertoy scenarios out a hundred years, remind them that we just found out about the plankton and the hurricanes …
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“In a simulation of such a change in one region of the North Pacific, the study finds that hurricane formation decreases by 70 percent.”
I’m not really familiar with hurricanes forming in the North Pacific. Typhoons in the South Pacific yes, and (weak) hurricanes in the South East Pacific off California, yes. There are hurricane force winds up off Alaska and Siberia all the time, but I can’t think of any named North Pacific hurricanes and nothing with the power of the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico storms. Can someone enlighten me?
Tom In Florida:
Does anyone really care?
Willis:
I told you long ago the Butterflies in West Africa are flapping their wings about now to start the next Atlantic Hurricane. It they had a nice Spring in West Africa then we will have an active Hurricane season! 😉
The change in water consistency makes sense and can be observed on small bodies of water also.
OMG, phytoplankton are on the threshold of becoming an endangered specie! Call in the EPA, we must act now before it is too late and Gaia gets mad.
I don’t understand all the excitement. James Lovelock reported this back in the 1970’s.
Jeff (of Colorado) says:
“I’m not really familiar with hurricanes forming in the North Pacific.”
I was in my mid teens growing up in Washington State when the Columbus Day Storm (Typhoon Frieda) hit the Pacific Northwest. When it slammed into the coast of Oregon at Cape Blanco, it had sustained winds of 150 mph with gusts up to 180 mph. (My dad had just invested heavily in some insurance company that went belly up after that storm!) One can still see the results of Frieda – lots of old growth trees uprooted and now decomposing – yes giving off methane!
The ability of plankton to affect the climate is part of the Kriegesmarine hypothesis. They also process carbon and alter its isotopic composition: some pull more heavy carbon (13C and 14C) out of the atmosphere when they are starved or stressed. The more heavy carbon they metabolise and export to the deep ocean, the more light carbon is left in the amosphere to be pointed to as evidence of human emissions being out of control.
Does anyone know what happens to a forming hurricane if you reduce the feed-in of aerosols?
JF
Jeff (of Colorado) says:
August 15, 2010 at 7:55 pm
Sure, we’re nothing if not a full service web site:
Tropical Rotating Storm (hurricane, cyclone, typhoon) Tracks Source
w.
When will WUWT stop using tabloid headlines.
The posting says plankton causes hurricanes, while the article says plankton influences the prevalence of hurricanes … there is a vast difference between the two.
The headline used here reminds me of what I see at the checkout stand of the supermarket!
Reply: I think you miss the literary technique being employed by Willis. ~ ctm
wsbriggs says:
August 15, 2010 at 2:36 pm
“Wanta bet this doesn’t trigger off a Oil Spills Cause Hurricanes, and/or Modern Intensive farming causes hurricanes?
The former, because of the algae and phytoplankton munching happily on the bacteria that are happily munching on the oil. the former because of the nitrogen & phosphorous flowing down the Mississippi into the GoM.
No matter what, Man that misbegotten beast, is at fault. ”
WS you are much too pesimistic. As you describe the bacteria are happily munching on the oil in the Gulf, which in turn are eaten by the zooplankton which in turn are consumed by shrimp and other larger creatures. Who knows maybe in the following years the fishery will sustain record catches. And the bonus in the whole deal will be when you fry any seafood caught in the Gulf you won’t need to use oil.
James Lovelock told us that it’s the microscopic biota that control the makeup of the atmosphere 30 years ago. It’s a pity his more rcent doom mongering made him a ‘bete noir’ of the sceptic camp, because his original book, ‘Gaia: A new look at life on Earth’ is packed full of valuable info about how our climate is affected by the chemical processes dominated by oceanic and land biota. In that book he comes across pretty sceptical too. His concepts were hijacked and twisted by the enviros, and he ended up tarred with the same brush.
“In the no-chlorophyll scenario, sunlight is able to penetrate deeper into the ocean, leaving the surface water cooler.>/i>”
I wonder if this is quite correct. Yes, the sunlight will penetrate deeper, but this would only slow the warming of the surface. It shouldn’t change the equilibrium temperature (unless it also changes the albedo). It would still heat up all the way to 30C down to a depth ~10m in less than a month (in the absence of clouds or evaporation). So the absence of plankton might somewhat delay the start of the hurricane season, but once hurricanes had started, the greater depth of heated water should if anything make them stronger (because there is more heat to feed the evaporation that drives them). Comments, anybody?
So the alleged 40% decline in plankton is a good news? Or it is worse than..
Once the hubris squad of doom and hawkers of gloom, peddlers of scare mongering, gets a hold of this they’ll turn it upside down twist it inside out, and even if it’s complete bullocks, they’ll show us puny humans the truth with it, i.e. our nature of our evil and immoral emissions of CO2, and to blame the emitters of said evil and immoral material, and not the cute and probably furry and having big saucer eyes, algae–who might be related to the poor polar bears a new study says.
Re Paul Birch says:
August 16, 2010 at 3:40 am
Sounds logical Paul. Energy left nearer the surface (due to the abundance of microscopic biota) would dissapate more quickly in the turbulance of tropical storms bringing the colder water more rapidly to the surface. “For every action an equall and oppositer reaction?
redneck says:
August 16, 2010 at 2:21 am
“WS you are much too pesimistic. ”
Sorry redneck, I was trying to be sarcastic. I need more practice.
As far as those happy little bacteria are concerned, I’m delighted they exist. Once, while the Shah was still in power, I visited Tehran and had a delightful conversation with some Iranian biologists who were working on culturing microbes to work at secondary and tertiary recovery in wells. Intriguing thought – they work for the price of a few covalent bonds, hard to get cheaper labor than that.
Brad–
What you say about a dead zone is true–at the mouth of the Mississippi. But further out those nutrients are available, along with oxygen, to fuel a mammoth algal bloom. The question is how much do those nutrients and the phytoplankton they fuel contribute to warmth in the Gulf and then strength and direction of a hurricane. Seems to me every hurricane season I hear the talking heads discuss how a hurricane will strengthen when it hits the “warm waters of the Gulf.” Connection? Correlation? Or just another unrelated artifact?
If you watch this video in full you will have most questions here answered
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zOXmJ4jd-8&feature=player_embedded
Instead of Windmill Frams is Scotland, how about we require all those empty SuperTankers to swing by Antarctica on their way back to the Middle East and pick up a load of ice cubes. When they get to the Indian Ocean (preferably in the Arabian Sea) they dump their ice and then pick up a load of crude. If someone raises a stink about oil covered ice cubes from internal stowage, we can always have a half dozen or so supertankers tow a berg back to the Persian Gulf. Ice cubes would be better though.
We can do the same with Greenland ice, it’s melting anyway. Right?
“Wanta bet this doesn’t trigger off a Oil Spills Cause Hurricanes, and/or Modern Intensive farming causes hurricanes?”
No no no.. That’s wholly unscientific. Oil spills cause oil-consuming bacteria, which provide rich grounds of plankton, which then bloom to the surface to cause hurricanes, which then devastate nearby oil rigs to cause more oil spills.
We’re very close to the BPHO (bacteria plankton hurricane oil) system tipping point. The next barrel of oil may spell the windy death of civilization. Act now to become more dependant on foreign oil, moving this menace far from our shores.
Oh that Plankton! First he tries to steal the Crusty Crab, and now he is out stirring up hurricanes. How can such a small character be such a big villain?
If this is true, that would mean that in the fight over CO2 sequestration, the scientists can be actually adding to the formation of hurricanes?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/28/iron-carbon-oceans
Kind of a ‘Sticky Wicket’ to be in. The more algae and other phytoplankton that they help out by adding iron to the ocean, could also be helping the formation of hurricanes? But don’t criticize their actions, their intentions were good.
“Plankton Cause Hurricanes! Urgent Action Required!”
When in trouble
When in doubt
Run in circles
Scream and shout
I think I’ll wait for the movie to come out. Can’t be worse than “Snakes On A Plane” can it?
CRS, Dr.P.H.’s comments @ur momisugly August 15, 2010 at 2:39 pm bring up an interesting point. It seems reasonable that biomass of various sorts might affect regional climeate, but then a Chicken-and-egg conundrum pops up; does changing climate increase the biomass of particular species or does the biomass of some sort change the climate to suitable conditions for the biomass?
Thinking of the few treeline studies I’ve seen referenced on WUWT, it seems that climate determines where the biomasses thrive. Thinking again about the corn example CRS, Dr.P.H. pointed out, it seems that one decent LIA or dustbowl-type drought would negate the changes the corn has made to the regional climate and wipe out the corn as well.
The presence of plankton in the water warms the ocean surface. And clouds and hurricanes cool the ocean surface. What is the net effect of these two inter-related but opposed plankton-caused phenomena? Unknown, even as to sign.
I risk sounding like a stuck record here but – if plankton growth and metabolism set in motion opposing processes – surface warming due to absorbance, cooling due to clouds then three guesses what scenario that gives us? Yes – chaotic-nonlinear dynamics, a system with friction or dissipation / damping favouring the development of non-linear (“chaotic”) pattern behaviour.
Alan Turing first proposed in the 1950’s that such self-opposing factors could give complexity to biological developing organisms – cells release agents that trigger both their promotion and inhibition, on different spatial-temporal scales. This yin-yang is a universal recipe for complexity with emergent nonlinear pattern in complex systems.
Ah, but where ARE these hurricanes, eh ??
“…What is the net effect of these two inter-related but opposed plankton-caused phenomena? Unknown, even as to sign…”
This is the key problem with climate modeling. Even the most basic things are unknown. I read a recent oceanography book that provided a simple model for predicting water evaporation from the ocean to an accuracy of about 10%, if there are no waves, wind, currents, impurities in the water, and about 20 other caveats. If you throw in any of the excluded factors, they really couldn’t say anything with any certainty. So when climate models estimate water evaporation from the ocean, apparently they are just guessing, and then they compound the guesswork with thousands of other guesses and trillions of accumulated floating point calculation errors. The whole thing seems to be a big waste of electricity.