Via Eurekalert and the “climate doesn’t kill people, weather does” department
Research considers role of weather in historic Everest tragedy
Their legend has inspired generations of mountaineers since their ill-fated attempt to climb Everest over 80 years ago, and now a team of scientists believe they have discovered another important part of the puzzle as to why George Mallory and Andrew Irvine never returned from their pioneering expedition. The research, published in Weather, explores the unsolved mystery and uses newly uncovered historical data collected during their expedition to suggest that extreme weather may have contributed to their disappearance.
George Mallory and Andrew ‘Sandy’ Irvine disappeared during their historic 1924 attempt to reach the summit of Everest. The pair were last seen on June 8th on Everest’s Northeast Ridge, before vanishing into the clouds and into the history books. For decades a vigorous debate has raged regarding their climb, their disappearance and if they were successful in reaching the summit.
“The disappearance of Mallory and Irvine is one of the most enduring mysteries of the 20th century, yet throughout the debates surrounding their disappearance the issue of the weather has never really been addressed,” said lead author Professor G.W.K Moore of the Physics Department at the University of Toronto. “Until we completed our study the only information available was an observation by mountaineer Noel Odell, who was climbing behind Mallory and Irvine, who claimed that a blizzard occurred on the afternoon that they disappeared.”
Many writers have since ignored the storm as Odell believed it had only lasted a short time. However the size and extreme height of Everest mean that Odell’s observations have always been difficult to place into context, making the blizzard potentially more significant than first realised.
This latest research focuses on meteorological measurements from the 1924 expedition which the authors uncovered at the Royal Geographical Society library in London. Although the data was published as a table in a 1926 report on the expedition, it was never analysed for information on the disappearance of Mallory and Irvine until this study.
“We analysed the barometric pressure measurements and found out that during the Mallory and Irvine summit attempt, there was a drop in barometric pressure at base camp of approximately 18mbar. This is quite a large drop, in comparison the deadly 1996 ‘Into Thin Air’ storm had a pressure drop at the summit of approximately 8 mbar,” said Moore. “We concluded that Mallory and Irvine most likely encountered a very intense storm as they made their way towards the summit.”
“Mount Everest is so high that there is barely enough oxygen near its summit to sustain life and a drop of pressure of 4 mbar at the summit is sufficient to drive individuals into a hypoxic state,” said Dr. John Semple an experienced mountaineer and the Chief of Surgery at Women’s College Hospital in Toronto.
The authors conclude that with the additional stresses they were under with extreme cold, high winds and the uncertainly of their route, the pressure drop and the ensuring hypoxia contributed to the Mallory and Irving’s death.
This research not only contributes a new, and perhaps final, chapter to the Mallory legend, but is also of importance to modern mountain climbers as the same types of storms and hypoxic stresses continue to confront those who take on the world’s great mountains.
The Mallory and Irvine storm serves as both an example and a warning of the magnitude of the pressure drops that can occur and the severe physiological impact they can have.
“Over the 8 decades since Mallory and Irvine died we have learned a lot about Mount Everest and the risks that climbers attempting to climb it face”, concluded Moore. “The weather is perhaps the greatest unknown and we hope that this line of research will help educate modern climbers as to the risks that they face.”
evanmjones says:
August 2, 2010 at 9:30 am
Good Lord, Gail, I am sorry to hear that.
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that is life and it was over several decades for all but my best friend who died two years ago. Beats dying by inches in a hospital bed from cancer though.
Gail Combs says:
August 2, 2010 at 8:40 am
Don’t wanna be one of your friends 🙂
Its hard to see why people are so mocking and unpleasant about the theory. There are plenty of reasons why Mallory and Irvine were at risk, if they found themselves in difficult circumstances. Mallory was experienced and able, but Irvine was young and inexperienced as an Alpinist. His lack of technical mountaineering skills would have put him at risk if things became difficult. Mallory had suffered from altitude sickness before, and was perhaps, at 38, somewhat over his peak of physical fitness. The question has always been whether Mallory would have pushed on recklessly, and whether the younger man would have taken excessive risks either from deference, or not understanding their magnitude. Mallory had already turned back from one summit earlier in his career, it seems unlikely that he would have risked his own and the life of someone for whom he was responsible. All in all, the extreme weather account makes sense. It makes sense that Mallory would not have forseen it, it would have been unforseeable. It makes sense that when it happened, even if the event had been survivable for a more evenly skilled and aged team, it would have proved unsurvivable for them.
We have to remember the equipment and the conditions. This was not fleece and foam lined boots. This was tweed, woolen underwear, Grenfell cloth over. This was not today’s oxygen, it was oxygen which failed often and was a tremendous burden to carry.
I find the account very plausible. In the end, those two could have made it, and come back safely, in reasonable conditions. Another team could have got back in the conditions in which they found themselves. But they, in those circumstances, an accident to one or both was very likely. One day we may find Irvine’s body. If they were roped, maybe a fall by him was the most likely precipitating factor. Or maybe he had fallen and Mallory would certainly have take almost any risk to try to save him.
Read Graves’ account of Mallory in Goodby to All That, and don’t mock. They had courage, they were among the best of their generation. All they lacked was equipment, in Irvine’s case experience, and above all, luck.
Now, I’m no climber, other than on to the bar stool to order my next whisky, but I call – 20°C and low oxygen extreme. Add some wind and snow and I’d call it b–è'(-y dangerous. Did they die because of climate change/global warming/weather? We will never know. What a stupid, silly piece of waste of money research.
Pamela Gray says:
August 2, 2010 at 9:59 am
This brings up a hot-button issue of mine. Extreme sporters should pay for their own rescue should they need it. They should be required to be bonded, just like engineers and construction bosses, and/or carry high priced rescue insurance. If they don’t and they are in distress or they disappear, sorry, but whatever caused it just doesn’t matter, they should be left to rescue themselves.
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You do have a point especially about the untrained idiots who watch too much TV and then do something foolish.
Many in the extreme sports are part of trained rescue teams and do their own rescues if the Authorities will let them. Often, if the teams have not done a lot of ground work to lay a good relationship foundation with the Authorities people die because the Authorities refuse help from the trained rescue team and screw up.
And yes I was part of a rescue team and yes I spent my money and my vacation taking training courses and yes I did some rescues when I was young and foolish.
I know after reading the Mount Everest Reconnaissance in 1921 that
http://www.archive.org/stream/mounteverestreco00howa#page/n0/mode/2up
Page 262
Weather and condition of snow
“Inhabitants of Darjeeling, who have observed the hills in the changing seasons for many years, told me that is was almost unheard of that so much snow should fall in September and lie so low. The general tenor of such remarks may probably be applied to an area including not only Mount Everest itelf and the great peaks in its neighbourhood. but also a considerable tract of country to the North.”
I empathize with Gail, having lost colleagues myself on K-2, Annapurna, Yosemite, The Palisades, Mt. Hood, and elsewhere. But I disagree with her “end of story” comment, though I understand it from the emotional state of a mountaineer.
As a long-time SAR responder and a member of a Mountain Rescue group, I find the key point — a 4 mbar drop causing a hypoxic state in a low O2 environment — an important factor. The realization of an 18 mbar drop associated with a failed climb (4 1/2 times more than is necessary to cause a hypoxic state) can’t be ignored as a factor. In cluster failures, several elements contribute to the event, and this one can’t be diminished in importance, as hypoxia affects not only the physical state but especially the mental state.
Posters here who have not experienced altitude sickness or rescued someone from a high mountain should not discount the challenges of something as innocuous as “air” to the success or failure to a extreme climb. Sudden changes to the nature and the quality of the air (including pressure) can have an immediate and deleterious effect.
Noel Odell was an accomplished climber in his own right. He not only climbed alone to the point where he last saw Mallory and Irvine, he climbed back to the same point alone on the following day. This feat (among others, he was essentially a rock climber) was still highly regarded among climbers when I was a lad. He was also a highly regarded geologist who served in both world wars, was a consultant to the oil industry and a regular geology lecturer at U.S. universities. He was hardly the sort of person to mistake the sort of weather associated with an 18 mbar drop in pressure for the squall that he described. His view was circumscribed but we could hardly have asked for a better witness.
michel says August 2, 2010 at 11:42 am:
“Its hard to see why people are so mocking and unpleasant about the theory.”
I’m not “mocking” it and hopefully not being unpleasant, and yes it is a mildly interesting theory.
But people can die from many things up there. Sudden heart failure and high altitude cerebral edema are not unusual, and I saw it and heard about it happening even among young and fit trekkers in the Khumbu valley, at less than 20,000 feet altitude.
The effects of being above 16,000 feet for days and weeks on end are significant and non-trivial. I would not be at all surprised if Irvine had a sudden heart attack and pulled Mallory off the mountain.
Gail Combs says August 2, 2010 at 11:50 am:
“Many in the extreme sports are part of trained rescue teams and do their own rescues if the Authorities will let them. ”
In the Himalaya I was adamant, insistent, and obnoxious that the Brit guy take his girlfriend down at least 500 meters because she was clearly suffering from onset AMS and possible cerebral edema. He reported the next day that she got better (instead of dying).
Even those people who know better don’t think it will ever happen to them.
Hey, Gail Combs!
While sitting at one of those late night, campfire discussions after all day caving, I heard a physician friend muse on the reasons why people go caving. “Some say it is a death wish. Others say it is a desire to return to the womb. Personally, I think they are both right!”
Best sport in the world. 🙂 Even better than rock climbing, because you get to do it in the dark, in the wet, and in places that make regular mortals turn into claustrophobes.
Gail Combs: August 2, 2010 at 11:50 am
And yes I was part of a rescue team and yes I spent my money and my vacation taking training courses and yes I did some rescues when I was young and foolish.
I prefer doing rescues snugly strapped into the cockpit of a helicopter.
Ropes break — shoulder harnesses and lap belts don’t…
pablo ex pat says: “Interestingly on the ascent Mallory was reputed, by his daughter, to be carrying a photograph of his wife which he said he was going to leave at the summit. It was not present when his clothes were searched.”
Yeah, pablo. Maybe extra-terrestials stole it?
Sorry Anthony, but this must be the silliest thread EVER on WUWT. Just because it’s something tangential to do with the Himalayas does not excuse its silliness. Well, maybe it’s my fault and I didn’t realise until now that the UP in Watts UP With That related to mountain-climbing.
Get a grip and stop gifting this website to those – and God knows, there are many of them – who assign WUTW to the far shores of anti-science, anti-history and anti-common sense they inhabit themselves.
[REPLY – Lighten up, dude. This thread isn’t anti-anything. And it discusses variable conditions at high altitudes. ~ Evan]
About 55 years ago I was a meteorologist at Eglin AFB when what I will all a “pressure front” came through. The wind increased from about 5 mph to 45 mph and back down in a space of about a minute. I had to do a lot of “explaining” how this could happen on a cloudless day with no warning on the synoptic charts.
I note a recent sad story of a woman killed by lightning at the top of the mountain that she and her boyfriend had selected as the ideal site for his romantic proposal of marriage.
historic Everest tragedy
They chose to climb the mountain. If they were playing Russian roulette and lost would we consider that a tragedy?
[REPLY – Why wouldn’t we? ~ Evan]
I gave up caving when I got tired of getting cold, wet and dirty. I have taken part in underground rescues and have a tip, when abseiling tie a knot a ways above the end of the rope.
I was involved in a rescue caused because a young person abseiled right to the end of the rope. Unfortunately, or possibly luckily, the end was 15 feet above the floor of the cave. The result ? A badly sprained ankle plus bumps and cuts and suddenly a lot of people have their day messed up.
As long as human beings remain oxygen-breathing animals, climbing Mount Everest without oxygen-respirators will remain only marginally more healthy than trying to dive the Marianna Trench without a submarine.
Get over it, folks: From his origins, man is a tropical biped ape, only suited by nature to live in semi-arid climates above 20 degrees centigrade on average, and in altitudes not exceeding 10,000 feet.
H.R. says: “It wasn’t the weather. It wasn’t climate. It wasn’t the fall. It was the sudden stop wot dunnit….”
Oh, well, sure, if you’re going to get all technical on us.
Gail
I’ll second that. When someone calls for a rescue (nowadays on their cell phone) they should provide a credit card number rather than make the public pay for the maintenance of all the rescue squads.
As I recall from reading the book on the discovery of Mallory’s body, his goggles were found neatly folded in his pocket. That seems unlikely if he fell in a blizzard. It is more consistent with a fall in the dark.
I also seem to recall they found a Mallory/Irvine O2 bottle at the second step, but not the breathing apparatus. That would suggest they had another bottle when they made their assault on the summit.
Whenever I think about extreme sports like mountain climbing, I think of the Texas surgeon who lost his nose and most of his fingers in the “Into Thin Air” storm. As he stated, you really have to be self-centered to attempt such exploits. The incredible death rate for those who attempt Everest clearly demonstrates this: if you cared about those you left behind, you would not go in the first place. If you do go, insure yourself heavily and say goodbye like you will never see your spouse and children again.
michel says:
August 2, 2010 at 11:42 am
[…] Read Graves’ account of Mallory in Goodby to All That, and don’t mock. They had courage, they were among the best of their generation. All they lacked was equipment, in Irvine’s case experience, and above all, luck.
I wouldn’t dream of mocking those explorers, but good grief! 80 years later and someone finally thinks to check the weather? Baaad researchers! No cookies for them.
I find the story of the missing photo to be compelling evidence that they made it to the top and died coming down. I’m not sure we’ll ever know.
From a (fictional) interview with Michael Mann:
Reporter: “Why do you want to erase the Medieval Warm Period?”
Mann: “Because it’s there.”
“And then he fell. Perhaps it was precipitated by the injury I think he sustained earlier. Perhaps it was simply exhaustion coupled with darkness and cold. Or maybe it was just carelessness. But, regardless, Mallory fell, and fell hard enough to sustain serious injury from the rope tied to his waist with a bowline-on-a-coil. (In 1999 we saw and documented severe bruising and rip damage from the rope pull on Mallory’s waist, telling visually the story of a big fall.) The rope came taught, catching on a horn or fin of rock. The impact through the old, static, hand woven line is hard, wrenching Irvine upward and slamming him into the small cliffband. He fights and holds onto the rope, straining to stop the fall, to stop his friend and companion from falling into oblivion.
And then, nothing. The strain disappears as suddenly as it began. The rope has broken, severed by the rock and the forces involved. Mallory is gone, cartwheeling down into darkness.” – informed speculation of Jake Norton who helped find Mallory and is still searching for Irvine. (read all three parts. No mention of severe weather though, only references to a passing squall.) http://blog.mountainworldproductions.com/2010/05/what-really-happened-to-george-mallory-andrew-irvine.html
John says:
August 2, 2010 at 1:32 pm
pablo ex pat says: “Interestingly on the ascent Mallory……..”
The interesting part appears to have passed you by, if his daughter was correct then he and Irvine obviously made it to the summit. Only the flip side of the coin no trace of either of them has ever been found up there.
Another interesting point was that Mallory’s snow goggles were in his pocket when the body was found, possibly indicating that they were descending in the coming darkness. What took them so long if it wasn’t a trip to the top ? The other possibilty was that the ones in his pocket were a spare pair and that he was wearing a second pair which were lost during his fall.
Obviously no one will ever know, not unless Irvine’s camera is found with reproduceable images on it. It’s just interesting to speculate, well it is to me anyway. I have catholic interests in many things – small c.
I think that it helps to be multi faceted when you are looking at the big picture items, such as AGW. Many disciplines positively impact on a gaining a better understanding of what’s really happening today, an appreciation of history is one of them.