Borrowing a phrase from NSIDC’s Dr. Mark Serreze, Phytoplankton are now apparently in a “Death Spiral”. See Death spiral of the oceans and the original press release about an article in Nature from a PhD candidate at Dalhousie University, which started all this. I’m a bit skeptical of the method which they describe in the PR here:
A simple tool known as a Secchi disk as been used by scientists since 1899 to determine the transparency of the world’s oceans. The Secchi disk is a round disk, about the size of a dinner plate, marked with a black and white alternating pattern. It’s attached to a long string of rope which researchers slowly lower into the water. The depth at which the pattern is no longer visible is recorded and scientists use the data to determine the amount of algae present in the water.
Hmmm. A Secchi disk is a proxy, not a direct measurement of phytoplankton. It measures turbidity, which can be due to quite a number of factors, including but not limited to Phytoplankton. While they claim to also do chlorophyll measurements, the accuracy of a SD measurements made by thousands of observers is the central question.
From the literature: The Secchi disk transparency measurement is perhaps one of the oldest and simplest of all measurements. But there is grave danger of errors in such measurements where a water telescope is not utilized, as well as in the presence of water color and inorganic turbidity (source: Vollenweider and Kerekes, 1982). I’ll have more on this later. – Anthony
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Phytoplankton need cap and trade
By Steve Goddard
Yesterday, Joe Romm reported :
Nature Stunner: “Global warming blamed for 40% decline in the ocean’s phytoplankton”
“Microscopic life crucial to the marine food chain is dying out. The consequences could be catastrophic.”
That sounds scary. Does it make any sense? Phytoplankton thrive everywhere on the planet from the Arctic to the tropics. One of the primary goals of this year’s Catlin expedition was to study the effect of increased CO2 on phytoplankton in the Arctic. They reported:
Uptake of CO2 by phytoplankton increases as ocean acidity increases
That sounds like good news for Joe! We also know that phytoplankton have been around for billions of years, surviving average global temperatures 10C higher and CO2 levels 20X higher than the present.
http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/2005-08-18/dioxide.htm
Phytoplankton growth/reduction in the tropics correlates closely with ENSO. El Nñio causes populations to reduce, and La Niña causes the populations to increase.
During an El Niño year, warm waters from the Western Pacific Ocean spread out over much of the basin as upwelling subsides in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Upwelling brings cool, nutrient-rich water from the deep ocean up to the surface. So, when upwelling weakens, phytoplankton do not get enough nutrients to maintain their growth. As a result, surface waters turn into “marine deserts” with unusually low populations of phytoplankton and other tiny organisms. With less food, fish cannot survive in the surface water, which then also deprives seabirds of food.
During La Niña conditions, the opposite effect occurs as the easterly trade winds pick up and upwelling intensifies, bringing nutrients to the surface waters, which fuels phytoplankton growth. Sometimes, the growth can take place quickly, developing into what scientists call phytoplankton “blooms.”
The phytoplankton must be loving life now!
The author of this study (Boris Worm) also reported last year “if fishing continued at the same rate, all the world’s seafood stocks would collapse by 2048”
So we know that phytoplankton have survived for billions of years in a vast range of climates, temperatures and CO2 levels. Apparently they have become very sensitive of late – perhaps from all the estrogens being dumped in the oceans? Or maybe they have been watching too much Oprah?
The standard cure for hyperventilation is to increase your CO2 levels by putting a bag over your head.
Would some real biologist, perhaps a retired one who doesn’t need to rely on a grant, please sample the water and use a microscopic count – maybe a cooperative effort worldwide to counter this stuff. The biological/ecological sciencs are one of the first of the sciences to be corrupted, following the collapse of social sciences (that group that needs to add the word ‘science’ to its name to bolster its image much like countries who add the oxymoron ‘democratic’ to their names – check out a list) into socialist activism. I fear there may not be any non-activist ecologist left to do an objective study. I fear also that climate science started from the beginning as a ‘humanity’.
Well, as the Warming is natural, then no panic ;-|
The Plankton will adapt. as I’m sure they have over millions of years of climate change.
A little off-topic. Joe Bastardi had a new Video entry on this morning about faults in the NOAA way of measuring temperature i the Arctic. It was really interesting. But I noticed this evening the video has ‘vanished’ ? I’ve never seen a video diary of his ‘vanish’ before and I check his blog everyday.
I hope Accuweather aren’t starting to censor him 🙁
http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
The phytoplankton may well be having problems. I just don’t find the “global warming” explanation to be even remotely credible. ENSO regions can experience changes of 7-10C from year to year, and the controlling factor is the nutrients, not the temperature.
I’d recommend that they use plastic instead of paper. 😉
Thanks again, Rev. Anthony & Co., for being the voices of sanity in the Wacky Warming Wilderness.
Read about the source of the madness here:
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/07/29/foodchain-angst-scientists-and-media-spread-more-enviro-shock-awe/
OK, do we need a group of people to volunteer to run around the building with their hair on fire?
Seems like everything is cause for panic with no real data nor reason. I am sticking with the sun, the giver of all energy to planet earth, and the taker of same.
Isn’t it weird how earth functioned quite well without man poking into everything, making pronouncements of what is clearly not knowable.
Funny how increasing numbers of biologists are becoming proxy climate researchers. Climate is where the grant monies are. If global warming is mostly natural (and I believe it is), why waste millions of taxpayer dollars studying the migratory patterns of butterflies? Perhaps all things should be studied but research is costly so the scientific community should weigh the benefit of such research and what it might reveal against the societal cost (or secure private funding).
If this Ph.D. candidate had discovered no change in phytoplankton density it would still be a significant finding but it wouldn’t suggest a “world changing catastrophic problem”. No problem, no funding. The CO2 caused AGW myth would have died a natural death over a decade ago had politicians and governments not dumped gobs of money to prove their agreed upon conclusion.
Science was corrupted when the symbiotic relationship between politics (and money) and scientists developed. Politicians absolutely loved CO2/CAGW theory. it created a “crisis” only government can solve. It’s an excuse to tax and a means for greater control over economies and people. As long as a catastrophic crisis is looming scientists receive taxpayer funds to continue studying the problem. If the cycle is broken at any point the whole thing collapses. If the researchers conclude there is no impending catastrophic crisis the politicians lose interest and the funding goes away. If funding such research were to become politically unpopular “the problem” would suddenly become far less important to the researchers.
Consider how much money will be required for “further research” into the “phytoplankton problem”. Personally, I’m jumping aboard early as a phytoplankton denier.
By the way, how about them Maldive islands, are they still above the surface? or have the entire population drowned? It must have, haven’t heard from then in a while…
I’ve used the Secchi disk to measure water transparency. It was a pretty good device before the age of electronic measurements that produced reasonably consistent data when nothing else was available. Typically it’s used in lakes and ponds, but will work in marine situations. Training is minimal and anybody can become proficient in a minute or two. The real issue, however, is that there is no way to link that data to phytoplankton density without sampling the water for organisms. Light can be limited by dissolved substances and zoo-plankton. Surface roughness can reduce the depth of disappearance as well. If you want consistency with measurements a century old, then use the Secchi disk. If you want precision, then calibrate it with a photometer and figure out the likely uncertainty of old measurements.
Phytoplankton Phyt song
Phyt-Oh-plankton, phyt!
In the sea, in the day and the night.
Phyt-Oh-plankton, phyt!
CO2 will never give you a fright.
After aeons in the biosphere
Higher temps, CO2, cause no fear.
But when both seen by a warmist eye,
You become another catastrophic lie.
Phyt-Oh-plankton, phyt!
Don’t dismay and you will have a chance
Phyt-Oh-plankton, phyt!
On its grave, global warming we will dance.
From the blurb at Nature: “We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of ~1% of the global median per year. Our analyses further reveal interannual to decadal phytoplankton fluctuations superimposed on long-term trends. These fluctuations are strongly correlated with basin-scale climate indices, whereas long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures.”
Fluctuations superimposed on long term trends. Have we heard that before? Sounds like an exercise in data mining to come up with something. Trying to milk a nice linear trend line out of a sine wave?
Beware of Plankton, he’s not to be messed with!
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoPT_2xA4pI&hl=en_US&fs=1]
Oh my lord, Oh my lord, The panic has spread to Washington DC!
Walter and Ben Jeffries at nonais.org report a very serious out break of Foot-in-Mouth Disease in the Nation’s Capital:
“WASHINGTON — Widespread outbreaks of Foot-in-Mouth Disease (FMD) have prompted government officials to shut down all transportation of workers in the tri-state DC metro area in order to prevent this tragic infestation from spreading to other states as Congress breaks for the summer. Police and transit authorities backed by the National Guard have setup road blocks and housing along major travel routes. Smaller roads are being patrolled to prevent escapes as the heat climbs.
This could not have come at a more inopportune time because millions of potential carriers must now be quarantined in Washington, DC over the summer heat wave. The only alternative is depopulation, a move secretary Vilsack said was “undesirable but may be necessary to protect the nation’s supply of politicians from infection.”
…..“The silent first stage infection is invisible which is what makes this disease so insidious. However, the second stage infection is quite easy to tell if a politician has FMD – they’ll have one or both feet in their mouth. Sometimes a hand as well. Some of them are two-faced so this is quite easily accomplished. They drool a lot too. It is really quite disgusting. Fortunately they can’t talk and have FMD at the same time so this place actually gets very quiet during these outbreaks.” Dr. Chompin was one of the point men during the eradication effort in 1992 and again in 2008. “It was a mess but we had to do what we had to do to save the nation’s political body. Even if that meant deposing of perfectly healthy politicians because they could have been infected and spread that to others when they went home for the session break. I’m just glad we caught it in time!” When asked if he thought that this outbreak would result in a similar switch in party power Chompin said that it could go either way. “We’ll try to save them if we can but we can’t take the risk of having these infected animals get out in the wild. Really, it is for their own good. We will do what is right and be very humane about it.”
Read the rest at Report FMD Outbreak in Capitol and enjoy Ben’s cartoon too.
More stupid research by knuckle headed scientists. There ought to be a limit on what the government can dole out taxpayer money on idiotic research.
About sums it up. Another fireman looking for the living room fire by carefully searching the garage whilst wearing a blindfold.
Desperation.
Seriously….
Nearly 500,000 readings over 110 years.
Lets be generous: 50,000 readings per year.
Lets assume 5 readings in each test location per year.
So we have 10,000 test locations.
A Secchi disk is 8 inches in diameter.
A Secchi disk has an area of just over 50 square inches.
10,000 test locations of 50 square inches.
So we have 500,000 square inches of tested ocean
Which is equivalent to 0.000322 square kilometres…
And the oceans only cover 335,258,000 square kilometres.
From the press release:
“Preliminary conclusions suggest that rising ocean temperatures are the leading cause of the decline. “As the water temperature rises, the ocean becomes more stable which limits the nutrients present in the water. This in turn limits the amount of phytoplankton,” explains Mr. Boyce.”
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But,……..water temps are cooling!
Not to worry, the research will be archived, for future reference.
Next up the Church of Climatology buys the rights to that epic “The Green Slime” and converts it into an infomercial aimed at preschool children. See what happens when the CLIMATE CHANGE’d phytoplankton fight back!
Distinguished fisheries oceanographer Alan Longhurst eviscerated Boris Worm’s 2006 Science paper in an article in Fisheries Research in 2007 (Volume 86, Issue 1, August 2007, Pages 1-5) “Doubt and certainty in fishery science: Are we really headed for a global collapse of stocks?”. His article raised many of the same quality control and peer review concerns that are often repeated here concerning climate science. It’s worth a read but is behind a paywall. I was at a conference with a group of fisheries science history experts when Boris Worm’s predictions of a massive catastrophic loss in fish populations was making newspaper articles – our reaction within seconds of hearing this news was a collective eye-roll, since fisheries problems and population conditions are much more complex than portrayed in Worm’s idiotic fear-mongering.
Am I missing something here ? The suggestion is that the turbidity of the oceans is decreasing, the ocean clarity is improving ?
That implies there is less pollution and all those microscopic bits of plastic that are supposed to be filling our oceans, really aren’t so bad ?
Oh and anyone who snorkels knows there are massive shifts in visibility everywhere you get wet. I’m certain others here too have seen agricultural or industrial runoff drastically alter things throughout their own waterways all the way to the ocean itself. They are spinning real environmental issues into sessions of crying AGW “wolf” and one of these days the rest of the planet will just tune out a REAL warning merely out of reflex.
@Green Sand They usually didn’t bother in the middle ages. After all Cesare Borgia was the son of Pope Alexander VI. He also had a sister and 2 brothers. He was used as an example in the Prince by Machiavelli. He left one of his henchmen de Orca in the Romangia with a somewhat split personality shall we say.
Then of course we have the potentially mythological Pope Joan.
When it comes to religion, people are free to believe whatever gives their life meaning. Who am I to be a thief and steal their meaning of life. But when it comes to science, sadly the standards are best expressed by the principal of the Boston Normal Gymnastic School for Women, Mr. William James: “Truth is what works.” suitably amended to the fact that the Truth will change when we find it no longer works and so have to produce a theory that better explains all we know.
Brian says:
July 30, 2010 at 2:06 pm
“Are they taking glasses into account?
I know that things look much murkier when I’m not wearing mine. I posit that many more people are wearing glasses now, and that many of the people that took readings in the past would have measured a different level of turbidity if they had been wearing modern glasses.
Brian”
So,….you’re saying glasses cause global warming, too!!??!!??!!…..OMG!!!! IT’S WORST THAN I THOUGHT!!!!!
It is amazing how you can tell a paper is wrong without having read it. Pure genius I guess. For those of you who are not in complete denial, the paper can be found here: http://www.nature.com.proxy.lib.siu.edu/nature/journal/v466/n7306/full/nature09268.html
If you don’t have access here are some news stories:
Christan Science Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0728/Vital-ocean-phytoplankton-a-casualty-of-global-warming
Wall Street Journal (free)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704895004575395273977526844.html
BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-10781621
LA Times
http://www.latimes.com/news/science/wire/sns-ap-us-sci-declining-plankton,0,6293116.story
Scientific American
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=phytoplankton-population
These reporters do not just read press releases. They talk to the researchers and other scientists in the field. It is foolhardy to dismiss something that may be important because it doesn’t jive with your politics or pet conspiracy theory.
PS: For those of you in the U.S. who are not professors or scientists there may be a way to get access to Nature and many other journals. At a public university in your state you can often buy a library membership. You should be given an access code and then you’ll be able to read anything their library has online access to.
Now you might not take this seriously…
But believe me… it is… because there are problems!
Especially if you have been taking Secchi readings for 110 years…
Problems like the deterioration in my eyesight with glasses, contacts and bi-focals…
Problems like remembering where to take my reading each year…
Problems like clouds, sunshine, wind, rain, hail, snow and waves getting in my way…
Problems like ships, boats, tourism, urban runoff, industrial pollution and sewage…
Problems like staying alive because life is too short for this sort of garbage.
Every professional, objective, marine biologist must be SQWorming as they read this cultist drivel.
regards