By Steve Goddard
Back in January, our friends were crowing about the warmest satellite temperatures on record. But now they seem to have lost interest in satellites. I wonder why?
Data: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
It probably has to do with the fact that temperature anomalies are plummeting at a rate of 0.47 °C/year and that satellite temperatures in 2010 are showing no signs of setting a record.
The attention span of our alarmist friends seems to be getting shorter and shorter. They lock in on a week of warm temperatures on the east coast, a week of warm temperatures in Europe, a week of rapid melt in the Arctic. But they have completely lost the plot of the big picture.
The graph below shows Hansen’s A/B/C scenarios in black, and GISTEMP overlaid in red.
Note that actual GISTEMP is below all three of Hansen’s forecasts. According to RealClimate :
Scenario B was roughly a linear increase in forcings, and Scenario C was similar to B, but had close to constant forcings from 2000 onwards. Scenario B and C had an ‘El Chichon’ sized volcanic eruption in 1995. Essentially, a high, middle and low estimate were chosen to bracket the set of possibilities. Hansen specifically stated that he thought the middle scenario (B) the “most plausible”.
In other words, actual temperature rise has been less than Hansen forecast – even if there was a huge volcanic eruption in the 1990s, and no new CO2 introduced over the past decade! We have fallen more than half a degree below Hansen’s “most plausible” scenario, even though CO2 emissions have risen faster than worst case.
Conclusions:
- We are not going to set a record this year (for the whole year)
- Hansen has vastly overestimated climate sensitivity
- Temperatures have risen slower than Hansen forecast for a carbon free 21st century
So what exactly is it that these folks are still worried about?
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Time to go buy a thick winter coat!
“So what exactly is it that these folks are still worried about?”
Their paycheck.
This information really doesn’t matter to Hansen or any of the AGW folk because each and every one of them lacks an understanding of the terminology of scientific method. If you point out to them that the observed facts falsify their hypotheses, they fail to understand “observed,” “fact,” and “hypothesis.” Of course, they will say that the time period must be hundreds of years long before it is taken seriously. Then they will say that we must spend a bazillion dollars in the next decade. And people say Al Gore is stupid.
“So what exactly is it that these folks are still worried about?”
I don’t think they are really worried about anything. They know the holes that are in their theory.
I do think climate science has adopted the liberal play book.
They have managed to include every person on the planet into some sort of victim scenario. The more victims they create, the more money they make.
This is just good business, and it is a business. The more victims they create, the more need for their product, the more money they make.
OT
My personal interest in the man-made global warming debate and the science behind it can be dated to the Cap-And-Trade bill that eventually passed in the House of Representatives in August of 2009.
The first article to convince me something was going on with the Sun and the dubious claim the climate of the Earth is mans fault, was from February 2008. I soon figured out the vast majority of the climate of the planet is the Sun’s fault, not mine. Therefore, I should not be forced to pay for the climate of the planet.
“Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming”
“Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn’t itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.”
Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Widescale+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm
After reading this article, I took a large interest in what our Sun was doing and I began rooting for an extended solar minimum as I knew it would destroy the AGW theory and it’s cheer leaders for the carbon tax.
The Sun has performed beyond my wildest expectations to destroy the AGW theory.
It’s sad people are freezing to death in large numbers and hardships of cold weather are being experienced, but it is necessary. I recognized the magnitude of the deception to bring about global governance and a world wide carbon tax that would make that possible, and what it would take to defeat that scam.
Enjoy your rest Mr Sun, and thank you.
They haven’t “lost the plot” – the plot hasn’t changed one bit. The plot is to lie, obfuscate, and manipulate anything possible to try and get Congress to pass a “climate bill”, one side effect of which would be to set them all up for life with grants and positions in the new apparatus that would have to be built.
Anything which does not advance that goal has got to be erased from the Public Record, insofar as it is possible for them to do it. And anything which may advance that goal, even if only valid for a minute or two, will be seized upon as some great trophy.
This is *Not* about science. It has not been about science for a very long time now. It is about money and control. That’s all.
What’s going to be amusing to watch will be to see how quickly the last vestiges of this movement collapse once the promise of Money for Nothing in some vast climate scheme is finally gone for good. August 9th is the day their dreams finally come crashing to the ground. Once that hope is removed, their is nothing left to hold the movement together.
And on that day their will be much lamentation and gnashing of teeth.
This is the problem with making predictions, sooner or later the time comes when the prediction gets to be compared to reality. Not sure it’ll stop the predictions coming though!
Uhm… They’re worried about being wrong, and will do almost anything to keep from being wrong?
I think the problem may be this: I spoke to someone today who has just graduated from university in geophysics and is about to apply to become a meteorologist “possibly at the CRU” (his words). Naturally I wanted his opinion on climate change. It turned out he didn’t know anything about the PDO or the AMO and asked me how they were driven. He didn’t know about the predictions of 20-30 years of cooling and just kept coming back to the same mantra about the science of CO2 forcing. He didn’t even want to know about feedbacks. Now, this is a man who will, in the next few years, very possibly be working in weather and climate for the CRU.
Sad, really.
Steve Goddard likes forecasts. Some months ago on here I forecast that by feb 2011 UAH would be below the Dec 2007-Jan 2008 anomaly. This is based on my understanding of solar-ocean interactions.
Looking depressingly good so far.
So what exactly is it that these folks are still worried about?
November 2, 2010?
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
July 17 hottest day ever recorded beating the record previous to this year by more than 0.1C
“It probably has to do with the fact that temperature anomalies are plummeting at a rate of 0.47 °C/year and that satellite temperatures in 2010 are showing no signs of setting a record. ”
So nearly 1C ever two years? Rubbish. Utter rubbish.
I have discussed the inaccuracy of Dr Hansen’s models projections for 2010 online but have been hampered by my inability to show a graph of the results. Dr Hansen published a rebuttal to his critics dated 2005 and the climate alarmists point to that rebuttal to prove that his predictions are right on target. He actually wasn’t doing badly as of 2005.
I point out to them that my calendar doesn’t say 2005 anymore. The predicted scenario “B” goes sharply up starting in 2005 while reality shows temperature falling. So how could he possibly be right on target ? I predict we won’t see an update of the 2005 defense from the good Dr ever ! He couldn’t do it without lying or admitting he was way way high in his estimates.
Thanks for the updated graph it is very accurate !
As far as the satellite and surface station data disagreeing I think until “Cities in Space” are a reality they always will diverge.
What to worry about?
1 I can see November from my house.
2 Another nasty cold wet winter
3 More failure in acceptance of the warmist dogma.
The fear is expressed in two actions. Refusing to release the computer code and hiding the data. They are still very afraid of the severe errors/cheating being exposed. If the Fortran was clean, it could be open to the world. If that data hadn’t been changed, no one would care who saw it.
sandy
It is supposed to have warmed up by 0.6C, not 0.1C.
Probably without realizing it, you are saying that Hansen was off by 600%.
stevengoddard says:
July 21, 2010 at 2:25 pm
> sandy
> It is supposed to have warmed up by 0.6C, not 0.1C.
> Probably without realizing it, you are saying that Hansen was off by 600%.
If he forecasted 0.6 and we got 0.1, then his error was (0.1 – 0.6)/0.6, or -83%. If he forecasted 0.1 and we got 0.6, then his error would be (0.6 – 0.1)/0.6, or 500%. If he forecasted 0.6 and we got 0.6, then his error would be (0.6-0.6)/0.6, or 0%.
I recommend people avoid expressing errors in terms of percentages unless the situtation makes their utility – and the math – very clear.
What are you doing?!…You are supposed to HIDE THE DECLINE!
Hansen did get the CO2 right… It tracked Scenario “A” with uncanny precision. The actual warming has been slightly less than Hansen’s Scenario C…
In most branches of science, when experimental results falsify the original hypothesis, scientists discard or modify the original hypothesis. In Hansen’s case, he just pitches the story with zealotry rarely seen outside of lunatic asylums.
The Hansen Model: Another very simple disproof of Anthropogenic Global Warming
You don’t say which UAH channels you’re plotting. I’ve been tracking Channels 4 and 5 daily here, and they are both running pretty high, well above recent years. Here’s Channel 4 (near surface), and Channel 5 (around 14000 ft).
Conclusions:
We are not going to set a record this year (for the whole year)
Hansen has vastly overestimated climate sensitivity
Temperatures have risen slower than Hansen forecast for a carbon free 21st century
So what exactly is it that these folks are still worried about?
“IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY BOYS”
— Dr. Hansen (In an Honest Moment)
“We have fallen more than half a degree below Hansen’s “most plausible” scenario, even though CO2 emissions have risen faster than worst case.”
Bingo! Thank you Mr. Goddard. Supporters of Hansen have tried to point out (following his 2005 defense of this chart) that CO2, as measured in parts ppm, have not climbed as fast as predicted. However in doing this they have shined a light on another failed aspect of CAGW, which is the capacity of the earth to absorb an increase in “emissions” is greater then they understood. So now observations show t not only the above failure of the CAGW theory, but that the CAGW theory was also wrong on feedbacks as well as the lifetime of an individual CO2 molecule in the atmosphere.
Yet they continue to “predict” disaster, and to ignore the benefits of increased CO2.
I think you mean Hansen was off by 500%.
0.2C is 100% off
0.3C is 200% off
0.4C is 300% off
0.5C is 400% off
0.6C is 500% off
This is just another example of sceptics exaggerating the errors of hard-working AGW
fund raisersscientists.BTW, the complete failure of this chart by Hansen should be required reading for every member of congress.
Like they read anything, they don’t even read what they do pass.
Hansen made those predictions … in 1988.
What were your predictions in 1988?
The only blog I have seen emphasising teh temperature records is Joe Romms. No other climate blog that I visit regularly (Skeptical Science, Open Mind, Real Climate, Deep Climate, Rabett Run…) have blogged about hot summer temperatures. A few have mentioned Arctic Ice, but I don’t see any talking up the chances of a record year.
Nor do I see any “losing interest in satellites”. Where did that come from?
So 2010 is declining after El Nino just like 1998? Nobody is surprised. The question is: how low will it go?
Haggle all the you like, cherry pick years and months etc etc The planet is warming, even by UAH observations. Where is the cooling?
TLT
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt