By Steve Goddard
The World Cup was bad news for Holland, but that isn’t what I am talking about.
The world’s preeminent climatologist Dr. James Hansen (who is well known for quiet understatement) has forecast that Holland will drown in the next century. Looks like East Anglia is doomed too. Is that a bad thing?
If that isn’t bad enough, NASA’s Cape Canaveral, Key West, and Miami are toast!
Dr. Hansen says :
I find it almost inconceivable that “business as usual” climate change will not result in a rise in sea level measured in metres within a century.
According to the University of Colorado, sea level has been rising at 3.2 mm/yr since 1994, and has generally been slowing down over the last five years (except for the El Niño spike.)
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_global_sm.jpg
That means it will only take 312 years to rise one metre. Which is not far off from what it has been doing for the last century.
It is imperative that we make plans to protect Holland. First step is to hire Hansen to put his finger in the dike. Second step is to teach their strikers how to kick the ball somewhere besides straight to the goalkeeper.
At least they didn’t lose a penalty shootout this year.
East Anglia’s coastline has been changing continually for centuries. In some instances, the sea has swallowed up land that used to be inhabited in medieval times (e.g., the town of Dunwich) but this is well understood and is due to long-shore drift. In other epochs, land has been created, due to sea levels receding since Roman times, when there was a great estuary stretching inland almost to where Norwich is now. Sea levels would need to be higher than where they were a couple of thousand years ago, for CRU to be in any danger (or my family, for that matter, who live in Norwich.)
The seas have been on the rise very slowly over the last millennium, and the land has been sinking (again very slowly) due to post-glacial rebound. As far as I am aware, it amounts to two or three millimetres a year, at most – on the other hand, the local impacts of erosion (e.g., Dunwich) would appear to be far quicker and much more dramatic (relatively speaking.)
From history, the answer would appear to be to protect human settlements with sea defences, as long as it is practicable and affordable – and otherwise to engage in a strategic withdrawal when it is no longer an option. But we really are talking about the long term here.
T’is a tragedy, but I never expected the Dutch to win the World Cup. In all honesty, as a Holland supporter, I think de Jong should have been sent off for the Jackie Chan tackle, but hey… it was an ugly game.
Just back from a study trip to some farms in Holland. The best ground (Below sea level already) is valued at 75 to 85000 euros/hectare and the banks are happy to lend against this land to a proportion of the value far higher than in the UK, which presumably means they think the ground is going to continue to appreciate! I don’t think they are taking global warming seriously, plenty of windmills though, but they have a lot of subsidy on their output.
Robert says:
July 12, 2010 at 12:20 am
Intresting picture, but where is the “IJsselmeer” and the “Wadden zee” in the 2007 picture? I know that it is an engineers wetdream to turn these bodies of water into fertile farmland, but last time i looked it was still al water.
Good observation, Robert.
I might add that the southwestern part of the Netherlands (named Zeeland, that is Dutch for Sealand) consists of islands surrounded by water, since many thousands of years. If mr Hansen is giving such a misrepresentation of the current situation, how much credit does he deserve for his predictions?
Dr. Hansen says :
I find it almost inconceivable that “business as usual” climate change will not result in a rise in sea level measured in metres within a century.
As opposed to feet and inches? It already is, Doc, steady at 0.0032 meters per year.
I’d like to stick around to see that event, but
der Leiterour leader has just appointed a newdeath panelhealth carecommissarczar and therationing“best practices” manual is probably gonna leave me on the outs.Having a little trouble with the keyboard today. Can’t find my bottle of WiteOut.
It does seem that the image from Greenland, in the last page of the report, is photoshopped. Can someone confirm?
Ecotretas
tallbloke:
150mm sounds bigger. It could sound even scarier by expressing in µm
“Dr. James Hansen (who is well known for quiet understatement) has forecast that Holland will drown in the next century.”
Ah, the Great Prophet of the IPCC religion of CAGW has spoken again, and has shown that the sins of the father will be visited upon the sons of mankind in the form of another catastrophic flood!
However, his previous dire warnings have all come to nought. What a complete load of old cobblers doth this man speak. Beware of the folly of these false prophets who mistake the majesty of natural climate oscillations for the puny hand of man.
What excellent science being practiced by Mr. Hansen. It might just be good enough to pass muster in … Hollywood. Perhaps he could team up with Mr. DiCaprio. Why should Mr. Gore have all the fun in making fantasy films? But he’d best steer clear of Mr. Costner (of Waterworld fame).
Tenuc says:
July 12, 2010 at 2:16 am (Edit)
Ah, the Great Prophet of the IPCC religion of CAGW has spoken again, and has shown that the sins of the father will be visited upon the sons of mankind in the form of another catastrophic flood!
I’ll tell you an old-fashioned story
That Grandfather used to relate,
Of a joiner and building contractor;
‘Is name, it were Sam Oglethwaite.
In a shop on the banks of the Irwell,
Old Sam used to follow ‘is trade,
In a place you’ll have ‘eard of, called Bury;
You know, where black puddings is made.
One day, Sam were filling a knot ‘ole
Wi’ putty, when in thro’ the door
Came an old feller fair wreathed wi’ whiskers;
T’ould chap said ‘Good morning, I’m Noah.’
Sam asked Noah what was ‘is business,
And t’ould chap went on to remark,
That not liking the look of the weather,
‘E were thinking of building an Ark.
‘E’d gotten the wood for the bulwarks,
And all t’other shipbuilding junk,
And wanted some nice Bird’s Eye Maple
To panel the side of ‘is bunk.
Now Maple were Sam’s Monopoly;
That means it were all ‘is to cut,
And nobody else ‘adn’t got none;
So ‘e asked Noah three ha’pence a foot.
‘A ha’penny too much,’ replied Noah
‘A Penny a foot’s more the mark;
A penny a foot, and when t’rain comes,
I’ll give you a ride in me Ark.’
But neither would budge in the bargain;
The whole daft thing were kind of a jam,
So Sam put ‘is tongue out at Noah,
And Noah made Long Bacon* at Sam
In wrath and ill-feeling they parted,
Not knowing when they’d meet again,
And Sam had forgot all about it,
‘Til one day it started to rain.
It rained and it rained for a fortni’t,
And flooded the ‘ole countryside.
It rained and it kept’ on raining,
‘Til the Irwell were fifty mile wide.
The ‘ouses were soon under water,
And folks to the roof ‘ad to climb.
They said ’twas the rottenest summer
That Bury ‘ad ‘ad for some time.
The rain showed no sign of abating,
And water rose hour by hour,
‘Til the only dry land were at Blackpool,
And that were on top of the Tower.
So Sam started swimming to Blackpool;
It took ‘im best part of a week.
‘Is clothes were wet through when ‘e got there,
And ‘is boots were beginning to leak.
‘E stood to ‘is watch-chain in water,
On Tower top, just before dark,
When who should come sailing towards ‘im
But old Noah, steering ‘is Ark.
They stared at each other in silence,
‘Til Ark were alongside, all but,
Then Noah said: ‘What price yer Maple?’
Sam answered ‘Three ha’pence a foot.’
Noah said ‘Nay; I’ll make thee an offer,
The same as I did t’other day.
A penny a foot and a free ride.
Now, come on, lad, what does tha say?’
‘Three ha’pence a foot,’ came the answer.
So Noah ‘is sail ‘ad to hoist,
And sailed off again in a dudgeon,
While Sam stood determined, but moist.
Noah cruised around, flying ‘is pigeons,
‘Til fortieth day of the wet,
And on ‘is way back, passing Blackpool,
‘E saw old Sam standing there yet.
‘Is chin just stuck out of the water;
A comical figure ‘e cut,
Noah said: ‘Now what’s the price of yer Maple?’
Sam answered: ‘Three ha’pence a foot.’
Said Noah: ‘Ye’d best take my offer;
It’s last time I’ll be hereabout;
And if water comes half an inch higher,
I’ll happen get Maple for nowt.’
‘Three ha’pence a foot it’ll cost yer,
And as fer me,’ Sam said, ‘don’t fret.
The sky’s took a turn since this morning;
I think it’ll brighten up yet.’
-Marriott Edgar-
Who predicted that Holland will drown?
Was it Dr Hansen, the Scientist? Or James, the Activist?
Iwould rather bet on the Dutch protecting, or even extending their coastline, than any
forecast from Dr Hansen who should go and lie! in a darkened room.
There’s a good old story Alfred’s Ark by Jack Vance.
I wish Dr. Hansen would have read it in his troubled youth.
Extra money for the dykes has been reserved. Rivers are most important, but much has already been done since the floods of 1995 (kwarter million people evacuated for two weeks).
A metre is not going to threaten our country. Not even if it happens by 2100. Well, except for some problems with the rivers.
Well done Steve. We need to shine a light on to these predictions and show them up to be the nonsense they are. Your article was very succinct. Historic Sea level information is as flawed as temperature information as I will show below.
We are being bamboozled by science which likes to have a nice graph to explain everything, unfortunately the real world is more complicated than that. Global sea levels are -like global temperatures-a nonsensical artefact dreamt up in a computer laboratory where satellite records are tacked on to manufactured and highly incomplete histroric records from selected tide gauges.. Modern Sea level rises- where happening- are not being seen in context as another of those regular cycles that stretch back much further than the satellite records or tide gauges into the depths of recorded time.
This is the latest IPCC assessment which confirms sea level calculations from 1993 are by satellite.(page 5 onwards)
Link1
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
The sea level calculations rely on an enormous number of variable factors including pressure, location, tides, warmth of oceans, structures, storms, wave heights, surges, stasis, location of the gauge/sensor, slope of the underlying strata etc. The accuracy of measurements is said to be 3cm (10 times the level of the alleged annual rise) but in reality is often vaguer than that because of the inherent difficulties of measuring. Observed real world sea levels generally simply do not show the rate of increase suggested by the IPCC (although this varies enormously from place to place for reasons cited above)
Link 2 The document below was written by many of our old friends including Phil Jones and Mike Hulme-page 19 gives the sea level data
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/images/stories/trends_pdfs/Trends_section1&2.pdf
The information for historic sea levels was ‘extended’ from a paper by one of the scientists at Proudman
Link3
http://www.pol.ac.uk/ntslf/products.php
Link 4 This is reconstruction of sea level data from 1700 of three extremely incomplete Northern Hemisphere records from which IPCC extrapolate their figures, take them to be a global figure and splice them on to the satellite records
Link 5.
http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/author_archive/jevrejeva_etal_1700/
These three are taken to represent global figures since 1700-much data missing and subsequently interpolated.
Amsterdam from 1700 (Van Veen 1945)
Liverpool since 1768 (Woodworth 1999)
Stockholm since 1774 (Ekman 1988)
It says there are differences even in the same ocean basin between tide gauges of up to plus or minus 6cm rendering their use for a global record to be irrelevant
Link 6
http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/author_archive/jevrejeva_etal_1700/2008GL033611.pdf
pdf from 1700 link
6cm margin of erropr from tide gauges in same ocean basin
Both the following sites give a good description of the satellite process-which is being constantly refined but doesn’t get more extremely accurate as the inherent flaws in measuring capabilities can’t be fully resolved no matter how many satellite passes are made.
Link 7
http://www.tos.org/oceanography/issues/issue_archive/issue_pdfs/15_1/15_1_jacobs_et_al.pdf
Link 8
http://jchemed.chem.wisc.edu/Journal/Issues/1999/dec/abs1635.html
The following sites deals with problems of satellite accuracy and data;
Link 9
http://www.ocean-sci.net/5/193/2009/os-5-193-2009.html
Link 10
This with reliability
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=859
Link 11
;http://lightblueline.org/satellite-tracking-sea-levels-set-launch
The UK Environment Agency -where possible like to use physical tide gauges as well when developing flood defence schemes, which are both visually observed or can send data electronically. Best of all is gathering information from local people such as the Harbour master or those who work the fishing boats and who know what is really happening.
The following link leads to a graph produced by the Dutch Govt sea level organisation- and confirm sea levels are stable and are somewhat lower than during the MWP. (This won’t stop them reacting to the IPCC by raising sea defences)
Link 12
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=61
Link 13
We have much observational evidence of historic sea levels (p162 on-including a map in the following link)
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=0Nucx3udvnoC&pg=PA156&lpg=PA156&dq=romans+in+iceland&source=bl&ots=5k8qGn7VK4&sig=s4aeHlT8Tivz8rVwcHFRVFZjDp0&hl=en&ei=38FJSr2pKpe7jAfu2rRi&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4
Ancient Greek explorer Pytheas travelled to Iceland and not only discovered the frozen seas lying one days journey beyond, but was the first to quantify the moons action as being responsible for tides, and took physical measurements of heights. Sea level heights are generally said to be lower today than back in the Roman warm period and Mwp.
Sea castles in the UK built in the 11th century are now above the sea level entrances which ships used to re-supply them.
This links leads to a 1913 book on Harlech castle-one such building which is now high and dry-nothing to do with stasis or deposition, but that sea levels are lower now than when it was built 1000 years ago. Suggest readers select the b/w pdf
Link 14
http://www.archive.org/details/merionethshire00morr
Extract
“In 1409 an attack was made upon Harlech, led by Gilbert and John Talbot for
the King; the besiegers comprised one thousand well armed soldiers and a big siege train. The besieged were in the advantageous situation of being able to receive their necessary supplies from the sea, for the waves of
Cardigan Bay at that time washed the base of the rock upon which the castle stands. Greater vigilance on the part of the attacking force stopped this and the castle was surrendered in the spring of the year.
A remarkable feature of the castle is a covered staircase cut out of the rock, defended on the seaward side by a looped parapet, and closed above and below by small gatehouses. This was the water-gate of the fortress,
and opened upon a small quay below.”
Link 15 The following pictures show the current location of the sea.
http://westwales.co.uk/graphics/morfaharlech.jpg
Link 16
Sea in far distance from Harlech castle
http://westwales.co.uk/graphics/harlech.jpg
and this
Link 17
http://www.buildmodelcastles.com/html/castle_history.html
very good item about Harlech
Link 18
http://www.walesdirectory.co.uk/Castles/Harlech_Castle.htm
Sea levels AND temperatures were higher in the MWP and the Roman warm periods and presumably other extended warm periods (the period 1700 to 1740 is looking increasingly comparable to today).
The worlds leading sea level expert Professor Morner has called the IPCC figures ‘a lie.’ Google ‘The greatest lie ever told’
Morner says: “The mean eustatic rise in sea level for the period 1850-1930 was in the order of 1.0-1.1 mm/year,” but that “after 1930-40, this rise seems to have stopped (Pirazzoli et al., 1989; Morner, 1973,2000).” This stasis, in his words, “lasted, at least, up to the mid-60s.” Thereafter, “the record can be divided into three parts: (1) 1993-1996 with a clear trend of stability, (2) 1997-1998 with a high-amplitude rise and fall recording the ENSO event of these years and (3) 1998-2000 with an irregular record of no clear tendency.” Most important of all, in his words, “There is a total absence of any recent ‘acceleration in sea level rise’ as often claimed by IPCC and related groups.”
He concludes: “When we consider past records, recorded variability, causational processes involved and the last century’s data, our best estimate of possible future sea-level changes is +10 +/- 10cm in a century, or, maybe, even +5 +/- 15cm.” See also Morner (1995); INQUA (2000).”
I am inclined to agree with Professor Morner that sea level is not really doing very much generally (with exceptions either way in some places)
Link 19
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we18.htm
The above link dissects the data and states that a rise by 2100 of 5cm is possible…. plus or minus 15cm!
Morner stresses (as I do) that observational data contradicts the theoretical interpolated and massaged data that is used by the IPCC.
John Daly also had a good handle on all this.
Link 20
http://www.john-daly.com/deadisle/index.htm
The sea level is not rising at the rate suggested-it has stumbled in recent years according to many local gauges (what is global sea level supposed to mean with a million kilometres of coastline?)
To reach a 1 metre increase by 2100 means an average of nearly 11mm a year (only 90 years remaining). There is simply no evidence to show this is happening.
I had intended to cover historic sea levels as a companion to my ‘arctic ice variation through the ages’ series.
We must stop looking at just a few years of data as ‘proof’ of rising levels , and instead view things in a historic context, whilst retaining a great deal of scepticism at the notion you can create a highly accurate global figure in the first place, or that tacking dubious satellite data on to even more dubious tide gauge data is any way to create a worthwhile measurement .
Tonyb
A small coastal nuclear power plant in Antarctica that pumps sea water up into the middle of the continent fixes this problem very nicely. After all, that’s where the melt will be coming from, so pump it back up there. Do I win £5?
Sad to see a supposedly respected scientist reduced to personal thought and poor conjecture, especially when such speculation is reproduced in a once-proud scientific magazine.
hubris squared?
Sea level changes could have a devastating impact on many people and therefore predictions of changes are of considerable importance. It would probably be a good thing, however, to find somebody with a better forecasting record than Dr Hansen. I nominate Paul the Octopus who correctly predicted the results of 8 games in a row in the World Cup, including Holland’s defeat in the final.
Any users of this blog who are unfamiliar with Paul’s amazing record (there are probably quite a few Americans who have not been following the World Cup) might like to read the brief article in the Guardian below.
Paul the ‘psychic’ octopus wins again in World Cup final
http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/jul/12/paul-psychic-octopus-wins-world-cup
Another advantage that Paul has over Dr. Hansen is that being an octopus he is probably more familiar with the sea!
“Almost inconceivable…”
I don’t think that word means what he thinks it means.
The AGW folks and their lobbyists are scared spitless of a turnover in the
House of Representatives from one party in the majority to the other. We’ll
be hearing a lot of worriesome pronouncements and predictions
between now and November. Right now, thanks to the economy, nobody
much cares.
Just imagine the scurrying on the part of some researchers/scientists if a Republican
controlled House of Representatives begins hearings on climate science, grants, and
research in 2011. Let’s see some testimony “under oath” without slow-pitch softball
questioners pitching to their peers and former team mates!
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
So far we’ve had ONE named hurricane of the up-to-eighteen NWS/NOAA has set
as their prediction for the current season. The air flow pattern persists in running
from north central Africa due west to the upper part of South America, rather than
the “normal” track from northern Africa to the Carribean. See:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/cmoll/cmoll.html
It’s been having an odd flow since January. If I can see it, why can’t the folks
who get paid to watch the weather?
Alex Cull refers to the land sinking due to post glacial rebound. The rebound is causing land to rise. He is confusing this with the “post glacial adjustment” incorporated into the 3.2 mm/year calculation of sea level rise. The actual rise is less, but the sea floor is falling slightly (.3 mm/year) in reaction to the rise of the land masses, so the depth of the water is also increasing. This is “adjusted,” producing a figure which is of no interest to ordinary people and which is no longer the level of the sea relative to land. It’s a Mannian trick conducted in broad daylight.
Hmm… please correct me if I am wrong but a 1 meter sea level rise requires 96,000 cubic miles of ice to melt over the same period. At more than 4 kilojoules per kilogram where is all this energy to come from? Is he predicting the sun going nova?
I forgot to close the italics command with after the word “lot” in the
first paragraph. Rats !
“The Somerset levels in the UK are already experiancing problems.”
Well they would be. At the time of Alfred the Great the whole area was under water during the winter with only a few islands poking up above the waves. These areas were below peak sea level and drained for agricultural purposes. This drainage started in early medieval times. After drainage, the land sinks, ironically making the drained land even more prone to regular flooding. The worst flooding of the area in history took place in the 1600s when 2000 people drowned. The Levels are right next to the Severn estuary which has the second highest tidal range of anywhere in the world. They flood, have always flooded and always will flood. Nowadays a lot of the flooding is deliberate, as it encourages the development of wetlands on which wildlife can thrive, particularly wading birds and rare plants. Fascinating place, beatiful countryside, but a poor indicator of climate change.
It was indeed a brutal game & Holland were lucky to finish with the numbers they did! My daughter’s boyfriend is half-Dutch so I was supporting the men in Orange, regretably.
Now, remind me. Al Gore spent $4M on sea-front property in California because………..? Someone’s been telling porkies me thinks!
we will have to build more de sal plants so we can drink more sea water, this action will lower the sea level very quickly .do you think I can get a grant for this project