Guest post by Dr. Richard Alan Keen
Although I’ve lived in Colorado for 40+ years, Philadelphia is my ancestral home and I keep track of the weather there. Of course, I’m excited about any event that sets records there, and last week’s heat wave set several. Apparently Michael Mann is excited, too, and in his “Victory and Vindication” interview, he said:
“Record heat wave in the US that’s part of a larger picture
of early summer temperatures that are the warmest on record,
which is part of a larger picture of a globe that is running warmer than ever before…”
So is Philadelphia getting more heat waves? Here’s a chart of annual maximum temperatures for Philadelphia since 1873, when the Weather Bureau installed self-registering max-min thermometers.
Earlier records are not comparable, since they are from hourly or 2 p.m. readings, which lead to lower extremes.
I think the graph speaks for itself – the trend line (plotted in red) is rather flat, with an upward trend of 0.2 degrees F per century. If that continues for another century, the old town will heat up another 0.2 degrees and turn into an inferno.
As for the question of more heat waves, before 1942, the mid-point of the data, Philadelphia enjoyed 9 years in which the maximum temperature exceeded 100 degrees. For the second half of the record, since 1942, there were, well, 9 years. Not much of an increase.
If that trend continues, I would expect another 9 years with 100+ degree temperatures by 2080.
Dr. Richard Keen
Co-op observer, climatologist, author, and teacher.
If we get a volcanic eruption of VE-4 or better from Iceland-we all are going to feel it in the NH. I fear the cold more than the warm….
And out here in California I look out the door of my office and see yet another gray, foggy morning…it hasn’t quite been a ‘year without a summer’ (yesterday was quite nice by afternoon) we’re definitely getting blanketed with low-level Gore Effect.
Of course, weather isn’t climate, or so the Gavins have always harped, which makes it all the odder that Mann would jump on that bandwagon.
Smokey says:
July 11, 2010 at 4:54 am
Smokey, yes, all true. But there is enough evidence…
(such as the “climate reparations” of the Copenhagen “treaty”,
…the comments of John Holdren (our new Science Czar) that a climate change agreement would: “allow wealth to be redistributed from the global north to the global south..”…….. and worse:
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/69081
….and the revelations about ownership of the CCX –
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/531731/201004281911/The-10-Trillion-Climate-Fraud.aspx
…. and I think we will find the same owners of carbon trading systems in Western Economies around the globe….
…to see that this is a global conspiracy. Not just to raise taxes for governments, but to funnel wealth to specific individuals, and to cripple and weaken Western economies… to unspecified ends…. all of which are frightening.
So, does this “vindication and victory” mean that the Hockeystick Mann will go down in history with the same fame as the Piltdown Man?
Heat waves must not be calculated by the number of years they happened but by the lenght they are in each of those years. A heat wave does not necessary mean a record high, but temps that are above normal for x number of days.
Pushing the idea that it is calculated in occurence per year is flawed.
Wade says:
July 11, 2010 at 5:25 am
“[…]However, this has not been the worst summer I’ve ever experienced. When I was a kid in the early or mid 1980′s, I remember a summer that had 5 straight days of 100+ F days. And very humid.[…]”
Water vapor feedback. Count yourself lucky you survived.
“As for the question of more heat waves, before 1942, the mid-point of the data, Philadelphia enjoyed 9 years in which the maximum temperature exceeded 100 degrees. For the second half of the record, since 1942, there were, well, 9 years.”
Without recourse to the raw data, it looks as if prior to 1942 there were only seven years when the maximum did not equal or exceed 95 degrees and after 1942 there were sixteen. More than twice as many cool summers in recent years than in the past?
Regg said: “A heat wave does not necessary mean a record high, but temps that are above normal for x number of days.”
Yeah, weather…
I am wondering where Dr. Keen got his data from – it says “Dr. Richard Keen” at the bottom of the graphic. And is Philadelphia particularly noteworthy weather-wise?
Dr. Keen:
Since you have the actual numbers. Run a common statistical test for Normalcy.
Then, if the data fits typical “normal” distributions, find the standard deviation.
THEN, compare that with the 0.2 F.
I think the significance of the 0.2 F on a “statistical basis” is about as close to ZERO as you can come!
Regg says:
July 11, 2010 at 8:33 am
“[…] Pushing the idea that it is calculated in occurence per year is flawed.”
According to whom?
Does Mann’s ‘vindication’ mean that Penn State will now let him move on and up, say to NOAA, and won’t have to fire him? Whoopie!!!! (The Peter Principle is still valid;-(
Philly does leave a little scar on your heart and dust in your lungs that you always carry around with you no matter where you are;-)
BTW, we have a little heat wave here in Germany ATM so i checked whether the all time record has been topped. It’s from 2003, 40.4 deg C, about 104.72 deg. F.
Answer: no, we’re at 38.8 deg C, that’s 101.84 deg F. And no way the record will be reached say the meteorologists as the days already get shorter.
Which is funny, because we have more CO2 than in 2003…
Zilla says: July 11, 2010 at 10:34 am
I am wondering where Dr. Keen got his data from – it says “Dr. Richard Keen” at the bottom of the graphic. And is Philadelphia particularly noteworthy weather-wise?
Zilla , I am wondering if Zilla is short for Godzilla and I am also wondering whether anywhere is particularly noteworthy weather-wise. So what’s your point babe?
Congratulations Zilla on asking good questions. Curious that Anthony has not put a link to Dr Keen’s web pages here – an unusual omission. But there are hints here of Keen’s scientific competence and trustworthiness eg
and when I googled Dr Richard Keen Climate Science I was tickled pink to find my own web page mentioning Dr Keen quite high up there. However what you need is Tom Nelson who says
and gives a link to Keen there.
Pascvaks says:
July 11, 2010 at 11:45 am
“Does Mann’s ‘vindication’ mean that Penn State will now let him move on and up, say to NOAA, and won’t have to fire him? Whoopie!!!! (The Peter Principle is still valid;-(
”
Michael doesn’t need to move up to evoke the Peter Principle i fear.
‘Wade says:
July 11, 2010 at 5:25 am
“[…]However, this has not been the worst summer I’ve ever experienced. When I was a kid in the early or mid 1980′s, I remember a summer that had 5 straight days of 100+ F days. And very humid.[…]”
Water vapor feedback. Count yourself lucky you survived.’
Water vapor feedback. This is why swamp coolers are more efficient in AZ than NC.
If I had one question to pose to Michael Mann, it would be:
“Is your trend line capable of escape velocity?”.
Del says:
July 11, 2010 at 12:45 am
Here’s an anology I can’t stop thinking about. If an astronomer said he found a asteroid that was heading on a collision course for earth that would cause all sorts of calamity yet he would not share the asteroid’s coordinates because this represented the last ten years of his research, how would fellow scientist and politicians react? Would they strengthen his warnings to earth by constant predictions of what could happen or would they insist on the coordinates of the asteriod?
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You forgot to add that his research was done with public funds. Therefore I would think he would find himself facing a court order and then jail for contempt of court. That is if he was not torn apart by the frantic crowds first.
Bird Stewart Lightfoot says:
“Is 0.2 degrees F/century statistically significant?”
_____________________________________________________
A. J. Strata does a really good, understandable analysis of that question here:
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11420
It is well worth reading and has some real zingers included.
Wade says:
July 11, 2010 at 5:25 am
I am from North Carolina. We are on pace to have the most 90+ F days ever. When you average the temperatures, this will likely be the hottest summer on record. However, this has not been the worst summer I’ve ever experienced…
_____________________________________________________________
That does not tally with my perception of NC. We actually had a mild to cold April and May and did not really get hot until recently.
In Sanford, the middle of the State, I count by July tenth 43 days over ninety F for 2004 vs 26 days for 2010, and four days of 98F in 2010 vs nine days of 98F in 2004
Central North Carolina (Sanford)Monthly temps over 90F for.2004.&.2010
April 2010 (1)………..April 2004 (6)
1day – 91F……………..2 days – 91F
…………………………….4 days – 93F
May 2010 (4)………………May 2004 (17)
4day – 91F……………..6 days – 91F
…………………………….6 days – 93F
…………………………… 2 days – 95F
…………………………….1 days – 96F
…………………………….2 days – 98F
June 2010 (11)……June 2004 (18)
5 day – 91F……………1 days – 91F
5 days – 93F………….7 days – 93F
2 days – 95F……………none
2 days – 96F……………2 days – 96
4 days – 98F…………..1 days – 98F
July 2010 (3)…………..July 2004 (9)
1 days – 91F………………2 day – 91F
1 days – 93F…………….1 days – 93F
1 days – 96F……………none
none………………………6 days – 98F
For the whole month of July 2004 (24)
……………4 day – 91F
……………11 days – 93F
……………1 days – 95F
…………1days – 96F
…………2days – 98F
Even if we have over ninety for the rest of the month we will not match 2004 for July especially with the forecast for the low nineties and thunderstorms which may mean the temperature never get into the nineties. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KTTA/2010/7/11/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Where are you getting the high count of over ninety degree days from???
With apologies to Damon Albarn, here’s a lyric of his that seems to fit:
He thinks his educated airs those family shares
Will protect him, that you will respect him
He moves in circles of friends who just pretend that they like him
He does the same to them and when you put it all together
There’s the model of a charmless man(n)
Isn’t a heat wave generally defined in the US as three straight days with a high temp of 90 deg F or greater? If that’s the case, the analysis in this posting doesn’t actually talk about heat waves at all! Heat waves and max temperatures are NOT the same thing.
It would be interesting to see what the average of the yearly mean is doing there. If it’s increasing, then the min of the winter temps must be increasing. That is, less cold in the winter which is what is driving the average of the yearly mean upwards.
This is what I’m seeing in my examination of Environment Canada station data. Except our summers are actually cooling. The 1920-1930’s were hotter in the summer than today, but also the winters are far colder. We have 1/3 fewer days above 30C now than in the 1930’s, and half the days below -20C today than then.
And some how that more moderated temperatures are supposed to be bad? Going to some “tipping point”?
Some of you may find this paper interesting:
Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Canada During the 20th Century
Xuebin Zhang, Lucie A. Vincent, W. D. Hogg, Ain Niitsoo
AtmosphereOcean (2000)Volume: 38, Issue: 3, Pages: 395–429
http://www.cmos.ca/Ao/articles/v380301.pdf
“Like other parts of the world, Canada has not become hotter (no increase in higher quantiles of maximum temperature), but has become less cold.”
and
“More studies are needed before we can conclude that such changes are the manifestations of anthropogenic climate change.”