Guest post by Dr. Richard Alan Keen
Although I’ve lived in Colorado for 40+ years, Philadelphia is my ancestral home and I keep track of the weather there. Of course, I’m excited about any event that sets records there, and last week’s heat wave set several. Apparently Michael Mann is excited, too, and in his “Victory and Vindication” interview, he said:
“Record heat wave in the US that’s part of a larger picture
of early summer temperatures that are the warmest on record,
which is part of a larger picture of a globe that is running warmer than ever before…”
So is Philadelphia getting more heat waves? Here’s a chart of annual maximum temperatures for Philadelphia since 1873, when the Weather Bureau installed self-registering max-min thermometers.
Earlier records are not comparable, since they are from hourly or 2 p.m. readings, which lead to lower extremes.
I think the graph speaks for itself – the trend line (plotted in red) is rather flat, with an upward trend of 0.2 degrees F per century. If that continues for another century, the old town will heat up another 0.2 degrees and turn into an inferno.
As for the question of more heat waves, before 1942, the mid-point of the data, Philadelphia enjoyed 9 years in which the maximum temperature exceeded 100 degrees. For the second half of the record, since 1942, there were, well, 9 years. Not much of an increase.
If that trend continues, I would expect another 9 years with 100+ degree temperatures by 2080.
Dr. Richard Keen
Co-op observer, climatologist, author, and teacher.
“part of a larger picture of a globe that is running warmer than ever before”
Is Mike Mann for real? The Earth has been warmer before, and he knows it. Also, the globe doesnt ‘run’ anywhere. It’s not even a globe, it’s an oblate spheriod. Pity he left science years ago.
But, I thought we cannot connect localized weather event with “climate change.” As in, it’s weather, not climate.
Colin. Since your from BC we can forgive your lack of climate expertise. Dr. Mann is an eminently qualified treemometer expert. If he says something it it must be true. He is, after all, a Doctor and you are are not.
Here’s an anology I can’t stop thinking about. If an astronomer said he found a asteroid that was heading on a collision course for earth that would cause all sorts of calamity yet he would not share the asteroid’s coordinates because this represented the last ten years of his research, how would fellow scientist and politicians react? Would they strengthen his warnings to earth by constant predictions of what could happen or would they insist on the coordinates of the asteriod?
Mann just can’t help himself can he? Being exonerated by your mates against all the evidence isn’t vindication – it’s fraud.
Maybe he should take a leaf out of Phil Jones’ book. He’s been “exonerated” by his mates too but he’s found enough sense to keep a low profile. So far…
Hey, Anthony,
Have you seen this?
[snip]
Reply: funny, but take it to tips and notes please. RT-mod
Dr. Keen,
Big Thanks.
I refer to your materials often. Your graphs on North America are an excellent example of the actual history for this part of the world.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAlMomLvu_4&hl=en_US&fs=1]
This is all part of a larger picture of a shameless mann.
But but, Mike Mann is right! From your own graph you can see that in a mere 127 years the average max temp has increased from 97F to ….. 97.2F
To the hills!
By the way, nice choice of datapoint marker. A lovely yellow sun symbol. 🙂
Dr Keen (or Anthony),
Any chance of sending this to Mr Mann and asking for his explanation regarding the disparity between it and his comments?
If you send this to Dr Mann he’ll run it through his Mannometer, then send it to his pal Hansen to homogenize it, and by the time you get it back it’s the steepest hockey stick you’ve ever seen.
Keepers of the historical records such as Dr Richard Allen Keen are a priceless resource that help to guard us from pseudo-scientist-hucksters such as Mann and his cohort. Observing Mann’s behaviour and mannerisms during the latest video of him, I see him as very strange and troubled individual. Digging the Warmist hole deeper by using examples of a short run of days of hot weather, which in the past they have been at considerable pains to inform us “is not climate”, one wonders at the state of their individual and collective mental health and how the eventual and final denouement that must come will effect Mann and his fellows.
Dr. Keen, you got me thinking, there are 12 special locations in the U.S. that are placed within 1200 km of at least two other points. By Dr. Hansen’s 1200 km algorithm, points internal within these 1200 km circular areas are not even necessary to accurately portray the temperatures over that larger (U.S.) area. If 12 people who comment here were to volunteer and collaborate and take one point each and locate and document a group of rural sites near each these points where the maximum temperature records show similar traits as Philadelphia which you have shown, it seems this should, by ‘proper’ science as Hansen has used, to show there has be none or just a tiny rise in the last century anywhere in the United States.
Since we are speaking of global temperatures, there is no way such one large mass of land (U.S.) can “hide” from the increased global energy within the global climate system over a century period as others have claimed.
We would need a group of specialists in climate to verify that this “experiment” meets all conditions listed in Dr. Hansen’s paper to align to his hypothesis.
Possibly some of the other climatologists and atmospheric scientist who frequent WUWT could stand in to peer review such a publication of this paper and properly put it on record.
This might be impossible due to scientific standard procedures but if so I would like to know some of the reasons why this could not be done and finished.
I know almost all for the rural stations in Oklahoma show the same no or tiny increase pattern over the last century and I bet the other 12 show a similar pattern.
Anthony knows of the many reasons why the minimum readings have shown an increase, more irrigation, more ponds, any structures retaining daytime heat, roads, etc. and all are not related to any GHG gases.
Seems we have to use current science itself as it stands to refute the other papers fogging this issue.
What do you think since you are a climatologist yourself?
Is 0.2 degrees F/century statistically significant?
The biggest mistake with “GLOBAL CLIMATE” is that it is regional. The shape and rotation of the planet does NOT allow clouds to cross over the equator. Ocean currents would NOT exist if the planet did not rotate. Rotation allows daytime heat to escape. Many other factors MUST be included to be more accurate such as land masses and the shape for the movement of ocean currents, sun activity, ocean chemistry changes, etc.
We have contributed to the imbalance slightly with activities NEVER experienced by this planet before man and the massive population.
CO2 being the cause? What a joke!
I’m a native of South Jersey, and I love your points and agree. One thing I am curious about though, is that I have heard that KPHL now measures from across the Delaware River in the town of National Park, NJ. At least I know they measure their snow there. I’m wondering if they also are measuring temperature, etc. there, and if so, how long have they been doing it? In terms of sustained, consistent climo, that would almost no sense to me if that’s what they’re doing (like many other things that have been done…though I suppose you’d get a truer realistic temp there, but that’s awfully far away from Philly to be considered representative). Thanks for a solid post!
Bird Stewart Lightfoot says:
“Is 0.2 degrees F/century statistically significant?”
Good question, which Prof Lindzen comments on:
We don’t even know how much of this small fraction of a degree warming is due to the recovery from the LIA, and how much is due to the effect of CO2 — if any.
The debate is still raging over the climate sensitivity number; the amount of warming putatively due to increases in carbon dioxide. Dr Lindzen states that it is ≤0.5°C. If so, then CO2 is a very minor player. Very minor. For all practical purposes, CO2 can be completely disregarded as inconsequential.
Yet based upon the alarmism surrounding this minor trace gas, politicians are proposing a roll-back of the industrial age. That will not happen. Here is why:
The AGW scam works like this: First, the public is alarmed regarding the effect of CO2.
Next, Cap & Tax is passed, resulting in an immense rise in the cost of all goods and services. This expense is designed to occur over several years, in order to blur the cause and effect between the C&T legislation and its financial effects.
What will eventually happen is that companies will be allowed to purchase “carbon offsets,” which will allow them to continue to emit the same amount of [harmless] CO2, once they pay the vigorish to the government.
The increased costs will then be passed on to the consumer in the form of higher prices across the board. The difference will be collected by the government as a consumption tax.
Cap & Trade is simply a tax; a tax so large that it would have no chance of passing as a tax. So it is dishonestly couched in the form of a “save the planet” solution.
The problem is that it is based on the lie that CO2 is the cause of the fraction of a degree warming since the mid-1800’s. But to date, there is zero testable evidence that CO2 is the cause of any global warming. Thousands of scientists are working to show that CO2 drives the climate — and they have come up empty handed. But the gravy train keeps moving forward fueled by the prospect of all that taxpayer loot.
Spreading the word of this scam at every opportunity is the best antidote.
Smokey says:
July 11, 2010 at 4:54 am
You’re MY hero!
Smokey,
Excellent points.
Worse yet we are spending Billions trying to develop “alternative” green fuels chasing old worn out concepts that have zero chance of supplying our energy needs.
“The Great Obamanomic Job Creation Machine rumbled into action again over the Fourth of July weekend, promising to spend as much as $2 billion to support creation of 1,585 “permanent” jobs by two solar energy companies. That comes to a potential cost of over $1.25 million per job.”
http://weeklystandard.com/articles/one-job-forward-two-jobs-back
and for windmills:
“The wind blew at its best in Ontario yesterday between midnight and 1 am (the first column in the chart), producing 214 megawatt-hours (1000 kilowatts to one megawatt) that hour. If wind was operating in a free market electricity economy, it would have only earned $36.85 per megawatt that hour, or one-third to one-quarter the value of power during peak hours.
Over the next few hours, its next best hours for the day, wind continued to fetch very low prices.
Then, when power prices soared along with demand as society got to work, the wind turbines went to sleep. The peak production of 214 megawatts dropped to as little as 11 and never rose above 60. To put these numbers in perspective, when Ontario needed the wind most, wind was producing as little as one twentieth of 1% of Ontario’s needs –essentially nothing.”
Read more: http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/07/08/lawrence-solomon-winds-bad-day/#ixzz0tKWQ8SpC
I am from North Carolina. We are on pace to have the most 90+ F days ever. When you average the temperatures, this will likely be the hottest summer on record. However, this has not been the worst summer I’ve ever experienced. When I was a kid in the early or mid 1980’s, I remember a summer that had 5 straight days of 100+ F days. And very humid. This summer, while hot, is not as humid as North Carolina can be. This has been a very bad summer, but it has been worse. It gets worse when I know our winter will be warm too thanks to La Nina.
I suggest “Dr.” Mann go learn what La Nina is and what the jet stream is. But, of course, Dr. Mann doesn’t care about such things. These things don’t allow him to gloat like a child and these things don’t attract funding. So he cares not for them, or for history. Michael Mann knows people have short memories. They don’t remember the hot years, so since he “studies” the climate then gosh, it must be true. That short memory will work against Michael Mann, Joe Bastardi keeps showing long-term predictions that show the earth is going to get real cold this winter, except the eastern part of the US. Where will “Dr.” Mann be then? Probably claiming that the warm winter in the eastern US is proof the world is warmer.
Guess the year of these heat waves
How Are New Yorkers Dealing With The Heat Wave (SLIDESHOW)
Now the sceptics’ book is titled, “Not Evil, Just Wrong”. Going with that and giving Mann the benefit of the doubt, would deem him quite stupid, wouldn’t it? Either way, how on earth could this turkey be a scientist?
Curiously, since about 1918 there is a clear downward trend of the max. of the maximum temperatures (about 2 degrees C/century). I know that global warming is supposed to manifest primarily as an increase in the minimum temperatures, so where does a decrease in the max. temperatures fit in? :>)