Haven’t had one in awhile. Too tired and cold (4C and raining in Ballarat) to do much else.
Keep it clean. Play nice.
Bonus picture regarding events of this week:
Image from the Oregonian, h/t to “Gore Lied“
Haven’t had one in awhile. Too tired and cold (4C and raining in Ballarat) to do much else.
Keep it clean. Play nice.
Bonus picture regarding events of this week:
Image from the Oregonian, h/t to “Gore Lied“
Stephan says:
June 26, 2010 at 1:13 am
they show a clear cut solar effect on climate.
That was just a rehash of old, tired, incorrect reconstructions. As regards TSI, various people have tried to form composite time series from various satellite data sets. This is not ‘manipulation’ of the data, but best efforts to get a homogeneous set of values. The composites vary because this is complicated business. The problem is that detectors degrade by being exposed to the harsh environment of space and X-ray and UV radiation. So, all measurements by everybody have to be ‘manipulated’ and corrected for the degradation. One way of doing this is to have two [or more] detectors, e.g. one that is open all the time and another one that is only open every other day. Then the former will degrade more than the latter, and the difference in TSI values from the two detectors can be used to keep track of the degradation. Even after best efforts to correct for all systematic errors [incl. degradation], the TSI series still do not agree between different experimenters. The best TSI measurements at the moment are those from SORCE [ http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/data/tsi_data.htm ]. Here is am example of such disagreement: http://www.leif.org/research/PMOD%20TSI-SOHO%20keyhole%20effect-degradation%20over%20time.pdf
Other instruments [e.g. ACRIM] have other [and worse] problems. In the future, better calibrations and comparisons will largely remove such problems, but we have to deal with the past data as well.
Here are some of my own speculations on the topic:
http://www.leif.org/research/Does%20The%20Sun%20Vary%20Enough.pdf
Anthony,
In the past week I received David Archibald’s new book. It’s beautifully done (lot’s of graphs/charts on very high quality paper) and compiles a stunning amount of information in a very readable format. Please pass on the accolades to David and my thanks. http://davidarchibald.info/
On another note, I happen to enjoy the Arctic postings and all the rest. I hope you keep serving up the eclectic and the personal interests of your contributing authors. The thought of a “content consensus committee” (whoa, that’s a different ‘C3’ than my C3) is a very depressing thought.
Jim at C3
anna v says:
June 26, 2010 at 4:29 am
DocWat says:
June 26, 2010 at 2:28 am
I’ll bet the Sun emits microwave energy. How much? Why aren’t we roasting like hot dogs? Sven??
Because, as anna says, the energy at the region of the spectrum is extremely small. We do observe the microwaves. It is the so-called F10.7 flux [the 10.7 is the wavelength: 10.7 cm] that we use as a measure of solar activity.
Below is a copy of a letter in today’s UK Daily Telegraph, don’t you just love it when a plan comes together?
Converting solar power
SIR – Some six weeks ago, I had a photovoltaic solar panel installed on my roof to take advantage of the microgeneration feed-in tariffs, which became available from April 1 this year.
Since installation, despite the magnificent sunshine, the unit has produced nothing, because the installer was unable to supply an inverter – a relatively straightforward piece of equipment that turns the electricity generated by the solar panel into useful energy for domestic use.
I am informed by the installer that this is a national problem. He has no idea when my inverter will be available. It might be August. It might be October. It could even be later.
I have written to Chris Huhne to ask him to rectify this sad state of affairs. If his department were to order these units, I am sure there are many British companies that would be delighted to supply them for distribution to the people who could make immediate use of them.
Rupert Wilson
Shepley, West Yorkshire
PJB says:
June 26, 2010 at 5:33 am
I am curious about the currently fluctuating magnetic field of the earth. How or does this affect climate?
There is no credible evidence that it does. The magnetic field of the Earth was large about 2500 years ago and has been decreasing since: http://www.leif.org/EOS/2007GC001881.pdf
Re: Roger Knights. “Comments?” (on Art Bell, Larry Schweiger)
WWF material fits quite well with Coast to Coast’s usual discussions of UFOs, Little Green Men, etc.
Connections. That’s what’s important, and what is not adequately addressed. Not just the physical, scientific connections; but the connections between all aspects of human society and the planet. For example: How will new financial rules (recently in the news ) effect things such as UHI, population growth and concentrations, etc.?
Likewise technology, energy, food production, distribution/logistics, religions, cultural differences, et al. It’s all massively interconnected. Worth pondering, imho.
Roger –
Nice praise – I agree entirely. But is the main idea to provide funding? Or control content?
The funding idea is admirable – but mandatory firewalls, pay-to-read fees act as critical filter on readership – which is how people (like myself) gain interest and become better informed. Hard to think of a way to make those work.
As to an “editorial board” – my ‘spider sense’ is tingling….
DocWat says:
June 26, 2010 at 3:05 am
And, As long as I am picking nits… I have about 100 semester hours in college credit in science courses, from Astronomy to Zoology. and there is a fair portion of what you guys (the generic “you”)write that looses something in translation. (I frequently think of my friend who finished high school just in time to be an anti-aircraft gunner in WW II)
How about this rule: “If it has more than 16 letters it needs simplification”
It probably wouldn’t kill you to use fewer acronyms. Real words are easier to understand.
______________________________
I agree with the acronym sentiment. Could the site put up an acronym glossary, perhaps?
anna v
The question is not “is there microwaves” rather “how much, how variable”
Tom_R
When I see a article on sea ice I don’t read it/ Just look at the pictures… Like Playboy.
Roger Carr
Editorial boards may not be as good an Idea as Tom_R’s. You Know there is no accounting for taste, so who is to judge? And who is to judge the judges?
Smokey
A little rest will do them good.
RE: wesley bruce: (June 26, 2010 at 2:45 am) “Simmons Says Nuclear Device Only Option to Sto[p Oil Leak]”
I would consider that a nuclear device to be the option last resort, even if all the well-casing has been expelled. Before that, I would think it might be better to try or at least consider inserting a metal plug with a chemical reaction or slow-explosive, expandable diameter and with enough weight behind it to resist the static pressure from below. I propose a slow-explosive reaction to give all the oil trapped in the middle time to be squeezed out and escape. Once the flow is stopped, the rest of the hole could be filled with concrete. I think the insertion device could be equipped with sensors to determine the quality of the bore-hole surface. This is my *non-expert* 2 cents worth.
Here is the site for klimaskeptik in English by the author V Kremlik….
http://climatechange.thinkaboutit.eu/think2/post/judithgate_ipcc_consensus_was_only_one_solar_physicist
and his site…
http://www.klimaskeptik.cz/english/
Very good reading….. All the best Jeff
Smokey,
Your YouTube link to BP’s “other” spill was HILARIOUS! I’d say it’s a “must see”.
“Could the site put up an acronym glossary, perhaps?”
Top of the page – 5th box.
DocWat says:
June 26, 2010 at 7:57 am
The question is not “is there microwaves” rather “how much, how variable”
Much less than a billionth of a Watt, so can be neglected, incl. its variation.
BP has deployed a Crack Team to the gulf to finally cap the well.
I see that the tour schedule gives you a “free” day on Sunday, but as you’re travelling from Ballarat Vic. to Narrogin WA for Monday evening’s presentation, I guess you’ll have about enough spare time to reset your watch. 🙂 No time to become bored.
I’ve never had a flight out of Melbourne that wasn’t delayed. It must be airport management policy.
Still, the flights manage to get to Perth without too much delay. Enjoy the flight. The air is still fairly dry, at least in the first cell that you’d encounter, so weather radar on the aircraft may not be able to help to avoid a bumpy flight.
If you’re lucky, you’ll experience perhaps a second of weightlessness on approach to Perth Airport over the Darling Ranges (it’s a scarp). A very special treat! Best not to be holding a drink at the time.
John Finn says:
June 26, 2010 at 2:57 am
No more scandalous than your link. I feel sure Leif will be able to respond to much the content as it looks to be based on old ideas and reconstructions.
Leif Svalgaard says:
June 26, 2010 at 6:46 am
That was just a rehash of old, tired, incorrect reconstructions.
If ever you need someone to deputise in your absence, Leif 🙂
Spector –
The idea of a ‘stinger’ inserted in the wellbore is predicated on assumption that the flow is coming up inside the casing. The problem is that the flow is alos coming up thru the annulus – outSIDE of the casing. So if one closes off the wellbore flow – the flow redirects to the annulus – perhaps making matters even worse.
The idea tho is valid – which is why they tried pumping a) mud and then b ) ‘junk’ of various sizes and density thru the part of the bop that works. But ultimately – that process needs to take place closer to the reservoir – where both the formation and casing have some integrity ..
That’s what the relief wells are all about. And THEN they will pump in mud and material at a pressure greater than the reservoir pressure – which should stop the flow ..
Shame on BP for this ‘accident’. It was preventable –
To Chris1958:
The spelling of Ballarat is interesting. As far as I remember (correction invited), the city spelled the name one way and the railway spelled it another, I think with a double”a” in the middle rather than a single one. Anyone know more about it?
Thanks for the open thread Anthony, gives me a spot to mention this otherwise off-topic subject namely stochastic resonance and climate. I happened to be looking up effect of stochastic resonance in the visual system and, on Googling it, was surprised to find that stochastic resonance was first proposed as the mechanism behind ice ages! This is puzzling as the change in TSI from eccentricities in the earth’s orbit is ~0.1% which would imply a very sensitive climatic system. What is even more curious is that stochastic resonance doesn’t seem to be mentioned by the warmists as the high climate sensitivity that is implied in the ice-age transitions should work in the opposite direction although humans aren’t producing a noisy CO2 signal but rather a step change (in geologic timescales). Are volcanoes the source of the “noise”?
The other point is that I’ve just finished reading Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan and it’s one of the most significant books I’ve read this decade. Taleb’s analysis of “expert” predictions and his devastating attacks on economic models (which are just as important when it comes to GCM’s) are well worth reading. Taleb’s discussion on the significant unknown unknowns (Black swans) is far more logical to me than what Dr. Ravetz had to say on WUWT a couple of months ago. Unlike Ravetz, Taleb actually had the opportunity to test his theories in the financial sector. I can see why Steve McIntyre is reluctant to consider the junk science produced by Mann et al to be fraud as confirmation bias and the narrative fallacy could just as easily explain their results.
For a different opinion from Dr. Svalgaard regarding changes in the TSI 1970 -2000 and influence on climate, see Dr. Nicola Scafetta’s EPA presentation:
http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/wpi.nsf/2efc4c5acad95f918525669800666fd7/7a5516152467a30b85257562006c89a6/$FILE/scafetta-epa-2009.pdf
Judith Gate, IPCC relied on one solar scientist.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/06/judithgate-ipcc-relied-on-one-solar.html
also on this topic see Joe D’Aleo’s essay:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Lockwood_and_Frolich_Review.pdf
Roger Carr says:
June 26, 2010 at 1:29 am
“Anthony: A critical, as in constructive, observation for your consideration.
WUWT has evolved from one man’s commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology… into an international sounding board attracting powerful minds and their wisdom, and, in consequence, now now has a worldwide readership — and exerts an international influence — on matters which seriously affect the future of mankind.
Because of that I believe an editorial board is necessary to sift the stories which bear the imprint of WUWT”. (etc.)”
Great. We could do a Wikipedia and keep out any view that does not meet with our consensus. We could ensure that no warmist gets a hearing here. We would have authority and gravitas too. The pity is that we would no longer have the very best site on the worldwide web.