By Steven Goddard,
In order to better visualize what is happening in the Arctic this summer, I generated an animation of satellite photos over the area of open water west of Barrow, AK. It reveals a very dynamic ice edge – with the ice moving as it is blown around by winds associated with the Beaufort Gyre.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/mag/2010/mag_2010062200.gif
The region of ice in the video is shown in blue below.
Here is what I see.
- The ice edge is moving left to right about 10 miles per day.
- Ice is being torn off the main ice sheet north of Barrow.
- A large chunk of ice in the center of the open water (on June 18) moves northwest, crashes into the main mass of ice, and disintegrates.
- Little evidence of melting.
- The landfast ice is not showing any changes.
- Lakes are still frozen solid.
What do you see?
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OT: Did you guys see this about Amazongate?
“The article “climate panel shamed by bogus rainforest claim” (News, Jan 31) stated that the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report had included an “unsubstantiated claim” that up to 40% of the Amazon rainforest could be sensitive to future changes in rainfall. The IPCC had referenced the claim to a report prepared for the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) by Andrew Rowell and Peter Moore, whom the article described as “green campaigners” with “little scientific expertise.” The article also stated that the authors’ research had been based on a scientific paper that dealt with the impact of human activity rather than climate change.
In fact, the IPCC’s Amazon statement is supported by peer-reviewed scientific evidence. In the case of the WWF report, the figure had, in error, not been referenced, but was based on research by the respected Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM) which did relate to the impact of climate change. We also understand and accept that Mr Rowell is an experienced environmental journalist and that Dr Moore is an expert in forest management, and apologise for any suggestion to the contrary.
The article also quoted criticism of the IPCC’s use of the WWF report by Dr Simon Lewis, a Royal Society research fellow at the University of Leeds and leading specialist in tropical forest ecology. We accept that, in his quoted remarks, Dr Lewis was making the general point that both the IPCC and WWF should have cited the appropriate peer-reviewed scientific research literature. As he made clear to us at the time, including by sending us some of the research literature, Dr Lewis does not dispute the scientific basis for both the IPCC and the WWF reports’ statements on the potential vulnerability of the Amazon rainforest to droughts caused by climate change.
In addition, the article stated that Dr Lewis’ concern at the IPCC’s use of reports by environmental campaign groups related to the prospect of those reports being biased in their conclusions. We accept that Dr Lewis holds no such view – rather, he was concerned that the use of non-peer-reviewed sources risks creating the perception of bias and unnecessary controversy, which is unhelpful in advancing the public’s understanding of the science of climate change. A version of our article that had been checked with Dr Lewis underwent significant late editing and so did not give a fair or accurate account of his views on these points. We apologise for this.”
Steve, when I look at the 250m MODIS data I clearly see melt ponds on the ice…;)
Julienne
Thanks. You can also see melt ponds on the surface of the Barrow webcam.
My comment about melt was based on the fact that the edges of the fractured ice are very angular (rather than rounded) and that when I follow a block of ice moving over the last week, I don’t changes in shape or size.
There is an interactive map of DMI: http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php
Please run it for one month as it is possible to set maximum span of one month only.
What wonders me is how quickly SST has risen for several degs over ONE month!
Could more knowledgeable explain this phenomena to me?
With regards
I see climate skeptics overplaying wind in the Arctic and underplaying winds in the Antarctic because that’s what suits their agenda. That’s what I see.
The positive anomaly in the Antarctic has now run out of steam as the increased ice due to the local wind patterns hits the buffers as always
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png
Meanwhile the Arctic does not seem to be hitting the buffers once again
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
That’s a hell of a lot of wind shear, mind you we have hit the hurricane season now, obviously they must be all up there .. ho hum.
Andy
Run anomalies, of course, I forget to add.
And also
Steve, how does your Beaufort Gyre explain the even bigger area of open sea to the west of Victoria island ? Why do these huge expanses always appear in the warmer spring than in mid winter? Perhaps a clue in that last sentence it is not just wind, it is temps as well. I know that causes you heartburn though.
Andy
IPCC “Consensus” on Solar Influence was Only One Solar Physicist who Agreed with Her Own Paper
Judith Lean´s concoction, IPCC´s “witch”
http://climaterealists.com/?id=5910
AndyW
If you have been reading Julienne’s comments, you should be aware that wind is a critical factor in determining the summer minimum.
I don’t think you would describe Julienne as being a “skeptic.”
AndyW
Winds create low pressure on the leeward side of an obstruction. That is why sailboats sail, and why ice is being pulled away from the western sides of Arctic Islands.
stevengoddard says:
June 25, 2010 at 10:41 am
Julienne
Thanks. You can also see melt ponds on the surface of the Barrow webcam.
Evidence that you were wrong when you said: “The landfast ice is not showing any changes”. (They’re visible on your Barrow gif)
My comment about melt was based on the fact that the edges of the fractured ice are very angular (rather than rounded) and that when I follow a block of ice moving over the last week, I don’t changes in shape or size.
Well you wouldn’t expect to except on the smallest fragments since you’re looking at flat sheets of ice with most of the area exposed on the top and bottom. The disintegration of that “large chunk of ice” shows how ‘rotten’ it really is.
I haven’t said anything about Julienne’s thoughts on the minima, what I am saying is that increased temps mean the ice is more mobile and so wind patterns play a part at this part of the season, not that it is just wind or just temps on these areas. It’s a combination of factors. Julienne said as much when you asked before if it was down to wind a few weeks ago.
I don’t even agree with wind being the critical factor for summer minima, the summer of 2007 was not just wind and ice being blown out of the Nares/Fram straight, it was mainly due to the high and low pressures meaning warm southerly winds melted and concentrated the ice from the Siberian side. Yes, it was the winds, but it was warm winds, also the temperatures were high due to lots of clear skies as well.
It’s painful for both sides not having it down to just temps or wind I know, but unfortunately that is the way it is.
Andy
PS Good post, enjoyed the graphics.
Very entertaining Steve, though I’m not sure what it as to do with the already record loss of ice extent (for the March 31-June 25th period) that we’ve seen. As we enter July, which is the very heart of the melt season, there will be virtually no area of the Arctic that will be untouched from melting, either surface, in melt ponds, or from below, or both. Right now, there are melt ponds forming across all basins, from the edges to the north pole itself. Every basin, from the Beaufort to the Barants is showing a negative anomaly in extent. We may not hit a record low this summer, but unless we suddenly see a huge cold spell across the entire Arctic, we’ll come close, and we’ll at least see the greatest amount of total sea ice loss on record (from the March high to the September low), even greater than 2008, which was greater than 2007.
TomRude, Yes we have. Have you seen this:
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/06/corporate-cowardice.html
“Had the WWF sought direct confrontation with myself, or Booker in The Sunday Telegraph, it would have received a robust response, but the complaint was directed at the weakest link, The Sunday Times, which had made some errors in attribution.
Although these errors did not affect the substance of the case, the paper has chosen to go far beyond that needed, and conceded that “the IPCC’s Amazon statement is supported by peer-reviewed scientific evidence.” This simply is not true.
However, the central falsehood having been endorsed now by The Sunday Times, this has been sufficient for the WWF to declare a victory and cut and run, thus displaying the corporate cowardice and mendacity that one would expect of this odious organisation.”
or this?
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/06/moonbat-too-far.html
Hi Steve,
The gif you posted doesn’t align to this capture — http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
Is it cloud cover in your image that alters the ice field?
Phil,
You must have X-Ray vision – like Superman.
Michael says:
June 25, 2010 at 11:46 am
That could be due to lack of humidity in the atmosphere because of colder seas…can’t think of decreased evaporation because of the oil layer.
Second thought which is probably more to the point:
What the “heck” is going on up there? El Nino is officially asleep, the temp up there is below normal, and the sun is sound asleep.
What in the world (within the physics no one seems to be able to clearly state) accounts for:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
Either our “tools for measurement” are cave age or something is afoot the models or understanding fails to reflect logically?
I’m probably missing the obvious – thanks in advance for the help with surface winds and currents.
Regards,
John from CA
John from CA
Difficult to argue with visible satellite imagery.
stevengoddard says:
June 25, 2010 at 12:26 pm
Unless some “dark matter ice” over there…☺
______________________________
John from CA says:
June 25, 2010 at 12:22 pm
Second thought which is probably more to the point:
What the “heck” is going on up there? El Nino is officially asleep, the temp up there is below normal, and the sun is sound asleep.
_______________________________
That’s why it is such good fun, watching paint dry. Sorry, meant ice melt.
Although we sometimes get combatitive on these things at least it means we are all interested in it, I can’t imagine a conversation down the pub lasting so long. Friends would think we were obsessed and boring. More fool them!
Since the thread on climateaudit went down the pan due to lack of interest I just thank Anthony and most specially Steve for keep updating, even though in general I tend to disagree with them.
Andy
Not to further stir the pot, but so far this June has shown the fastest ice loss rate during the satellite era currently at 83,000 sq-km per day. This past May was also the fastest rate of ice loss from 1979-present.
So I am keenly interested in what is driving this rate of loss this year. If you look at the air temperature anomalies, you find that temperatures are anomalously warm, but not as warm as say in 2007 that showed 925 mbar air temperature anomalies that were 7oC above normal in the E. Siberian Seas (1-23 June). You have the Arctic Dipole anomaly this month resulting in winds pushing ice away from the Siberian coast in the Laptev Sea towards the pole (in 2007 it was more in the E. Siberian and Chukchi seas). I haven’t looked at SSTs yet. Cloud cover (or rather more clear skies) looks like it might be about the same this year as in 2007. I don’t know if the PIOMAS volume estimates are correct for this year or not, but the way the ice is responding at the moment would lead me to believe it is on the thin side.
What do you see?
A cold, miserable and lifeless place that nobody wants.
The ice extent graph is running parallel to 2006 and is offset downwards due to deficiencies in regions which are normally ice free in September. There is little reason to pay attention to the ice extent graphs until at least July.
I think its the Sun.
Hot Tip; Sun-Gate coming up?;
http://www.climatechangefraud.com/behind-the-science/7220-new-global-warming-scandal-consensus-on-sun-is-one-expert