Steve Goddard writes:
Below are animations for the entire year (150 days) so far, based on NOAA SST maps. The videos are presented with minimal commentary. As they say, “150 pictures are worth 150,000 words.”
El Niño has faded and may be switching genders.
The Northern Pacific has been generally below average.
The tropical Atlantic has warmed significantly over the year, heading in to the hurricane season.
The ocean just south of Greenland has been persistently above average temperatures.
Antarctic waters have been getting colder, which is reflected in the growth of ice.
Arctic waters have been warm on the Atlantic side, and cold on the Pacific side. This is reflected in excess ice near Alaska and deficiencies near Greenland and Svalbard.
Van Grungy says:
May 31, 2010 at 3:56 pm
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=solar-minimum-forecasting
Haven’t you guys been talking about this for a LONG time now?
Keep up the good work. Always a daily read for me.
Many here have.
It is curious in Scientific America article that an entire group of solar physicists agree that they are completely in the mist, don’t have the foggiest what the sun is up to. Now Hallelujah that is very fresh wind of truthfulness!! If only AGW climatologist could learn a bit of that humility. If Scientific America keeps that up I might just renew my subscription!
Does anyone have an explanation for why The North Atlantic hurricane activity has increased while the global ACE was decreasing?
Nice animations Steven.
Nino 3.4 stayed at -0.2C last week.
The subsurface waters, however, are as much as -7.0C below normal in some places and it will just take some time to cool-off the slightly warmer water above and for this cooler water to reach the surface and spread across the region.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/z2n140w.gif
The AMO area of the north Atlantic has cooled by about 0.2C from the peak 5 weeks ago and the 0 to 30N area (which is the most above normal) has cooled by about 0.3C in the last 3 weeks.
jorgekafkazar says:
May 31, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Enneagram says: “…These two, one pixel each, SSN=40?
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.jpg”
They’ve been homogenized, corrected for TOB, adjusted, and had “appropriate” fudge factors applied.
—
From http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html
“As a rule of thumb, if you divide either of the official sunspot numbers by 15, you’ll get the approximate number of individual sunspots visible on the solar disk if you look at the Sun by projecting its image on a paper plate with a small telescope.”
Thus no manipulative shenanigans are going on here. An SSN of 40 would be indicative of 2-3 spots, which is what we appear to have.
Ray Boorman says:
May 31, 2010 at 5:26 pm
Wayne at 3:29pm – The deep ocean is only a few degrees C, so there should always be a slow transfer of heat downwards rather than up, except at the Poles. But then, an unstirred cup of coffee cools at the surface first, so in that case the transfer is upwards. The large scale SST changes come from changes in the pattern of winds over many months, which alter the flow of various warm & cold surface currents in the ocean basins. That’s my understanding of the process, anyway.
Hi Ray,
That’s interesting. I have thought that before until I realized that basically means the if there were no “arctic water” there would be no thermocline. Not so. You need at least 1000+ meter water column to observe what I am speaking of. It’s because of density separation, the thermocline that is.
Here from Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermocline :
“Thermoclines can also be observed in lakes. […] Because the warm water is exposed to the sun during the day, a stable system exists, and very little mixing of warm water and cold water occurs, particularly in calm weather.”
If that was so colder packets of water would never fall due to density differentials and eventually you would end up with an ocean at one temperature, top and bottom. That doesn’t happen. that is why I said specifically “non-thermocline temperature differential”. I still think my point is correct. If a stable thermal system as air/ocean and the air or top few meters of the ocean get less heat input from any source the heat in the top thermocline will start moving upward. To myself I call it “collapsing the top part of the thermocline”. If more thermal input from above then the top of the thermocline would expand.
Those effects of currents, wind, and top-layer convection of coarse occur, your right, but I was speaking of a separate effect. Isolate just that aspect and you might see what I mean.
I’ll go one more step, it’s the gravity! One cubic meter deep is under more pressure but less temperature. One cubic meter up here is less pressure but more temperature. Are they not under thermal equilibrium if the exact figures are applied, therefore no heat flows even though the temperatures are different? That is why I pressed “non-thermocline differential”.
Anthony Scalzi says:
May 31, 2010 at 6:25 pm
Problem is, I have projected those extremely low-contrast sunspots on a piece of paper with a small telescope.
Just about a year ago, Dr. Leif Svalgaard was with me when I projected just such a spot, and we could not see it.
I had it at 8:30 am, but by the time I got to Leif at the hotel it was vanished.
I have tried enough of these SOHO MDI Continuum ghosts to know that, at best, 1 spot group was visible.
I will say this: If you don’t believe me, get out there and do the observations yourself. Besides, it won’t be too much longer and you will only be able to see Sunspots on SOHO or SDO images, if L&P continues.
Shenninigans.
Anthony Scalzi says:
May 31, 2010 at 6:25 pm
Thus no manipulative shenanigans are going on here. An SSN of 40 would be indicative of 2-3 spots, which is what we appear to have….
Say what?
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/512/
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.jpg
Clean your screen!
MalcolmR says:
May 31, 2010 at 3:37 pm
So Amino Acids, when you say “Canada will feel it!”, what do you mean? We had a very warm winter in 2009/10, is the winter of 2010/11 going to be an especially cold one?
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
It depends on the line of blue water that goes to the west of South America on the equator that you see at the end of this animation by Steven Goddard:
If that line stays blue that is La Nina. Red on the equator in that location is El Nino.
This is the typical El Nino pattern:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/ElNino/typicalelninopattern.jpg
So you can see why it was warm in Vancouver for the Olympics. It was not caused by man. It was a normal El Nino occurrence.
This is the typical La Nina pattern:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/gid/LaNina%282%29.png
You can see it could be a cold winter in Canada.
It’s simple actually to find it for yourself. Do a search on things like “typical El Nino pattern”, or, “typical La Nina pattern”, or, “typical el nino winter weather pattern in Canada”, or, “typical el nino summer weather pattern in Canada”, or, “typical la nina summer pattern in Canada”. etc., etc.
Bill Illis says:
May 31, 2010 at 6:12 pm
The subsurface waters, however, are as much as -7.0C below normal in some places…
Huh, I thought Kevin Trenberth said global warming sank into the ocean. How can it be colder there? 😉
“Jim Steele says:
May 31, 2010 at 5:52 pm
Does anyone have an explanation for why The North Atlantic hurricane activity has increased while the global ACE was decreasing?”
Hurricanes only form when the water temperature reaches a certain level. Higher water temperatures don’t really make any difference. Hurricane activity seems to follow a 40 year cycle — we’re about half way through an active cycle.
Anthony Scalzi says:
May 31, 2010 at 6:25 pm
jorgekafkazar says:
May 31, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Enneagram says: “…These two, one pixel each, SSN=40?
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.jpg”
They’ve been homogenized, corrected for TOB, adjusted, and had “appropriate” fudge factors applied.
—
From http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html
“As a rule of thumb, if you divide either of the official sunspot numbers by 15, you’ll get the approximate number of individual sunspots visible on the solar disk if you look at the Sun by projecting its image on a paper plate with a small telescope.”
Thus no manipulative shenanigans are going on here. An SSN of 40 would be indicative of 2-3 spots, which is what we appear to have.
_______________________________________________________________________
I just look at the Layman’s Sunspot Count to compare apples to historic apples or as Dr. Leif Svalgaard suggested to me I use F10.7 found here on his graph:
TSI-F10.7-MF-SSN-Solar Activity Recent solar activity (daily graph)
Either way the sun has gone back into a funk again.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
May 31, 2010 at 8:06 pm
Huh, I thought Kevin Trenberth said global warming sank into the ocean. How can it be colder there? 😉
With Gore at the helm of the Minnow, that’s one cold ride to the bottom.
rbateman says:
May 31, 2010 at 7:20 pm
The most fascinating thing I’ve learned in the last couple of years here is the L & P fading sunspots. I’m surprised it hasn’t gotten more attention from any level from the solar science community (or at less the press coverage of it) to “The End is Near” types talking to themselves (oops – that’s a cell phone in their sleeve).
It’s been nearly a year since the L&P’s last paper on it, WUWT has picked up a lot of readers since then who don’t appreciate this possible event. so, if you have no idea who L & P are, or why you hear rbateman blaming the Sun instead of his eyes for his difficulty in drawing sunspots these days, read http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/13/sunspots-today-a-cheshire-cat-new-essay-from-livingston-and-penn/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/02/livingston-and-penn-paper-sunspots-may-vanish-by-2015/
The short summary of all this is “The magnetic field of sunspots is decreasing, this allows more convection, and therefore sunspots are warming. That reduces the contrast of the umbra, penumbra, and the surrounding Sun. If current trends continue, sunspots will exist with a magnetic signature but will fade from view. Presumably this has happened before (there is nothing new under the Sun – my joke), but we didn’t have tools to measure it. It might have happened during the Maunder Minimum. If that’s related to climate, (cue Leif for dissent), then kiss your butt to keep it warm. If not, then it’s “just” exciting times in solar research.
When do sunspots fade from view? Around 2015 if the trend since 1990 continues. All in all, it’s the most fascinating thing I’ve learned at WUWT.
This is the Sun in 1998 with the hammer down on the Solar Cycle 23 Autobahn:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/sc23COMP_latest.JPG
This is the Sun today in 2010 in a VW Bus on a steep hill:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/COMP_latest.JPG
There is always hope for a trade-in on a faster model, but it ain’t happened yet.
Well if one accepts that the primary effect on global albedo is the cyclical shift of all the main cloud bands (the two mid latitude jets and the ITCZ) latitudinally then it would follow that one would get differential warming and cooling in the various oceans depending on the position of each ocean relative to the position of the cloud bands.
I feel sure that that is where one would find a resolution of the undoubted interplay between sea surface temperatures as described by Bob Tisdale and the cloudiness effects mentioned by Steve Goddard.
The warm parts of the North Atlantic would be where the northern jets have moved to over recent years having previously been in a more poleward position. Thus the warmth is being restrained in it’s normal progression from mid latitudes towards the pole.
The warmer Tropical Atlantic would also be a consequence of the jets having moved equatorward as the tropical warmth is restrained from moving into the mid latitudes.
Obviously other factors are relevant such as the background flows of water between oceans and from equator to poles but short term I’d say that it’s variable insolation and variable poleward air flows as a result of those latitudinal cloud and air circulation shifts that has the greater effect. There could also be long term effects too as the energy input to the thermohaline circulation varies over time, perhaps over centuries.
Those latitudinal shifts would also be involved in affecting the Trade Wind patterns which have a direct relationship to ENSO phenomena as Bob often points out.
Then one must ask why the cloud bands move latitudinally beyond normal seasonal variability over multidecadal time periods and as regular readers will know my favoured mechanism for that is currently solar effects influencing the strength of the inversion at the tropopause and thus the size and intensity of the polar high pressure cells.
New and improved version :
rbateman says:
May 31, 2010 at 9:06 pm
With Gore at the helm of the Minnow, that’s one cold ride to the bottom.
Is that the ‘Gore Effect’?
rbateman says:
May 31, 2010 at 9:37 pm
This is the Sun in 1998 with the hammer down on the Solar Cycle 23 Autobahn:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/sc23COMP_latest.JPG
This is the Sun today in 2010 in a VW Bus on a steep hill:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/COMP_latest.JPG
There is always hope for a trade-in on a faster model, but it ain’t happened yet.
— —
Yea, there you go! I’ve got some soho images packed away on CDs somewhere when it looked like that 1998 with a eight barrel turbocharge engaged. But remember, the powers to be keep telling us the science is settled and no more energy leaves that blazing sun’s surface when comparing to today glassy surface other than a 1.5 parts in 1360 or so. You buy that? Or, that maybe the instruments just need an upgrade. Perhhaps the new solar satellite will give us that answer (would throw up the acronym but never can seem to remember the new ones, oh yea, SDO :).
rbateman says:
May 31, 2010 at 9:37 pm
“This is the Sun in 1998 with the hammer down on the Solar Cycle 23 Autobahn:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/sc23COMP_latest.JPG
This is the Sun today in 2010 in a VW Bus on a steep hill:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/COMP_latest.JPG
There is always hope for a trade-in on a faster model, but it ain’t happened yet.”
Thanks for the excellent compilation pictures, Robert, which show just how weak cycle 24 activity is. I’m not looking forward to next winter if this pattern of low activity continues, on top of the other changes indicated by this post.
A good source for information to track solar cycle 24 progress, along with links to the new SDO solar images, is available here:-
http://prop.hfradio.org/
Enjoy…
Is it just me or is the redness on the north atlantic side of the Arctic weakening in the last couple of months?
Amino acids in Meteorites asks “is it the Gore Effect”
[Latin] ALGOR:- Cold-Coldness, Chilliness, Fit of shivering. Cold weather [PL]
Real latin rather spooky.
Some mention the Jets in this article, would be curious to see if anyone has (or can) come up with an article on the change in Jets over the past ten to fifteen years and what if anything is noted as an anomoly in location(s) and strength(s). Please?
(not talking football;-)
A new concept to help explain the present Arctic and Antarctic ice observations. This is unverified and here for discussion.
1) The magnetic field hole over the poles allows the Sun’s TSO (Total Solar Output) to warm the poles faster than the equator during high solar output. In addition, when the Sun’s TSO goes to a minimum (we are at a minimum now, check the 10.7 cm Flux values), by the same effect, the poles cool faster than the equator.
2) Heat movement from the equator to the poles is accelerated by the differential, and occurs more energetically until the stored heat at the equator is dissipated. When the differential approaches “normal values” (to be defined), heat movement becomes less energetic.
3) The Pacific is in the process of releasing its stored heat. The Sun has “turned off”. When the stored heat reaches its new low value, expect the Arctic and Antarctic ice to greatly increase in volume, but not necessarily in extent. The extent, as previously stated by WUWT, is highly affected by the increased winds (energetic heat movement).
4) TSO (Total Solar Output) is different than TSI (Total Solar Irradiance). TSI was measured on the Earth’s surface after going through the magnetic field. TSO includes hard, soft x-rays, high, low ultraviolet, solar wind energy, etc. I feel that the 10.7 cm Flux is a good proxy for TSO, since energy must pass through 10.7 cm on its way to cosmic noise. Note: All of the interactions and mechanisms have not been identified.
Thanks
Pascvaks :
June 1, 2010 at 4:21 am
I’ve been unabe to find anyone tracking latitudinal position of the air circulation systems beyond seasonal variability.
However there are lots of bits and pieces in the wider literature confirming that it does happen. In particular they were well equatorward during the Little Ice Age and presumably well poleward during the Mediaeval Warm Period hence the warmer Greenland then. Likewise well poleward during the recent Warm Period but currently have moved back equatorward again.
A recent paper by Mann and others (of all people) has linked the latitudinal positions in the southern hemisphere to solar activity and as I expected the more active the sun the more poleward the jets.
Dr. Lurtz :
June 1, 2010 at 6:18 am
“1) The magnetic field hole over the poles allows the Sun’s TSO (Total Solar Output) to warm the poles faster than the equator during high solar output. In addition, when the Sun’s TSO goes to a minimum (we are at a minimum now, check the 10.7 cm Flux values), by the same effect, the poles cool faster than the equator.”
That’s one possibility but I’m not sure yet that it’s solely a magnetic effect. In particular the poles are slightly warmer than normal at present due to enhanced air flows in and out whilst the jets are more equatorward and so able to show more ‘loopy’ pole to equator behaviour in their tracks. Whatever it is causes the stratosphere to cool when the sun is more active as during the late 20th century and warm when the sun is less active as now. It’s necessary to have a temperature effect on the stratosphere in order to get an effect on the strength of the inversion at the tropopause which would be the feature that then changes the size and location of the polar high pressure cells in troposphere. An interesting point is that that would be opposite from what is normally expected. The conventional wisdom is that the stratosphere warms from a more active sun but it didn’t during the late 20th century and that apparent anomaly was put down to the CFC effect on ozone quantities which was assumed to be reversing the ‘normal’ effect. I think that needs to be revisited.
I’m persuaded by the fact that a cooler stratosphere must always weaken the inversion at the tropopause and allow the jets to move poleward as was indeed observed. I think it too much of a stretch to suggest that CFC or CO2 quantities control the latitudinal position of all the air circulation systems. The currently warming stratosphere with a strengthening inversion, stronger polar high pressure cells and the movement of the jets back equatorward is far more likely to be linked to the less active sun than CFCs or CO2 especially since all the recent changes in trend coincided with the reducing solar activity levels.
Logically what must be happening to fit observations is a change in the energy flux from stratosphere upward when the solar activity level changes.
So for example a less active sun will reduce the upward energy flux which on the face of it reduces loss of energy to space globally and so could have a warming effect but because that then pushes the air circulation systems equatorward there is reduced insolation into the oceans due to a global increase in albedo. Thus a net cooling effect but filtered through the oceans which takes some time.
The cooling effect of a quiet sun is therefore not related to a reduction in total solar output but instead is caused by the equatorward shift in the cloud banks reducing the total amount of energy getting into the oceans with a reduced energy flow from oceans to air at a later date.
The warming effect of an active sun would not be related to the tiny increase in total solar output but instead is caused by the poleward shift in the cloud banks increasing the total amount of energy getting into the oceans with an increased energy flow from oceans to air at a later date.
That latitudinal shift in the cloud banks and the consequent effect on global albedo gives a nice method for amplification of the tiny changes in total solar power output.
Van Grungy says:
May 31, 2010 at 3:56 pm
From the link you gave:
After hearing his colleagues’ various approaches to investigating the sun’s behavior, Hill took stock of a field with many open questions. “My main impression of all this is I’m gratified to see that we all agree that this is an interesting minimum,” Hill said. “What’s not so gratifying is we have no clue why any of these effects are happening.”
Who dares?
Here is one who really dares:
http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=ah63dzac
Here there is another:
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/4