Thomas Fuller of the San Francisco Examiner has a great piece which summarizes the issue of climate and malaria and Mann. Like with the imagined increase in hurricane frequency due to global warming, so it goes with malaria. There’s no correlation. The premise is false.
On Monday, May 17th, I had the privilege of sitting on a panel at the Heartland Institute Chicago ICCC4 conference with regular WUWT contributor Dr. Indur Goklany. He gave his views on the declining mortality we’ve seen worldwide and has published several pieces here on WUWT. He also the author of the book: “ The Improving State of the World”. “Goks” (as his friends call him) gave a PowerPoint presentation on declining mortality in a warming world and you can view the PPT File here.
I’ve culled one of the slides he presented below. If this doesn’t offer proof that when it comes to mankind that “warmer is better”, I don’t know what would. Note the reversal in the southern hemisphere with Australia and New Zealand.
But the most interesting slide is number 10, showing the drop in Malaria worldwide:
Thomas Fuller covers the Mann-Malaria issue below:
Correspondent Barry Woods has done all the heavy lifting on this story, so if you like it, kudos to him–any errors of course are my responsibility.
In the Guardian today there is an article following on about the story of malaria and climate change. I like the quote from Peter Gething of Oxford: “If we were to go back to the 1900s with the correct climate change predictions for the 20th century, modellers would predict expansion and worsening of malaria and they would have been wrong, and we believe they are wrong now.” That’s because despite global warming for the past 30 years, the geographic extent of malaria has lessened, leading logical thinkers to guess that climate change has not worsened the spread of malaria.
Gething was referring to his study published yesterday in Nature that found that bednets and drugs will influence the spread of malaria far more than will climate change, challenging fears that warming will aggravate the disease in Africa.
Many researchers have predicted that rising temperatures will cause malaria to expand its range and intensify in its current strongholds. But unlike usual models, which aim to predict how climate change will affect malaria in the future, researchers looked at how warming affected the disease throughout the last century.
They used a recent epidemiological map of the global distribution of the major malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, and compared this with historical data on malaria’s prevalence in the 1900s.
The researchers — whose work was published in Nature yesterday (20 May) — found that despite global warming, the prevalence of malaria decreased, which they attribute to disease and mosquito control programmes.
Or so you would think. But Matthew Thomas thinks differently. Matthew Thomas said that the study “plays down the potential importance of climate [change]”.
Who is Matthew Thomas? He is a researcher at… Penn State. Matthew Thomas is a researcher… at Penn State… who has just won a $1.8 million grant to study the influence of environmental temperature on transmission of vector-borne diseases. Think he has a dog in this hunt?
Ask his co-investigator on the project. Michael Mann…
Where do we ask for a refund?
…
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My dad had the privilege of having both Malaria and frostbite in 1951 in Korea.
Wait a sec…
I think we should support this study.
The more I think about it, the more I am all for it.
Global warming = increased malaria epidemics.
Of course we don’t know for sure… the facts are uncertain. But then too, billions could die if epidemics became wide spread, so the stakes are high. It may be too late for CO2 mitigation, there may be enough warming in place already to trigger the epidemic at any point, so we need to act fast it is urgent.
Facts uncertain, stakes high, matters urgent, clearly we need to DDT the whole planet starting tomorrow afternoon and kill every mosquito in existance. Yes there will be harm caused by DDT through disposal of spray cans if nothing else, but were talking billions of lives here!
Seriously, this might work. I live in a mosquito dense city that went goofy for a while and refused to spray for them out of concern for the environment. I’m not talking cat size mosquitos like Dr Dave (excellent post BTW, very informative) complains about in Michigan. I’m talking the little ones drag dead deer off the highway and hide them in the bush for fear that the big mosquitos will take it away from them. A few dead crows and a few confirmed cases of West Nile virus…
Ahh… the sweet sound of the malethion truck coming down my street.
Wish I’d kept some of those crows. Coulda stuck ’em in the freezer and hauled them out again “when needed”
Indur M. Goklany says:
May 22, 2010 at 4:32 pm
Thank you, Anthony, for posting this. However, I have to apologize to you, your (and my) readers and audience. My slide presentation on the Heartland website does not match what I used at the talk itself. Also, I had some errors in the slide show that I must correct.
First, I mislabeled the malaria figure up above. The caption should say: “Top: left, mid-19th century; right, 1945. Bottom: left, 1977; right, 2007.” Second, due to transcription errors………………..
=================
Everybody SLOW DOWN, if you catch one mistake, assume you missed 3 others.
Catching a mistake reminds you that you are an idiot, missing a mistake ………
Thanks for this information, Anthony! Infectious disease and public health are my bailiwick.
I’ve heard this malaria story over & over for years, not to mention increased plague (proliferation of rodent hosts of the pathogen Y. pestis), yellow fever etc., etc.
The primary weapon to fight this stuff is wealth, pure & simple. If money is unnecessarily diverted from valid public health causes to this will o’ the wisp, just-around-the-corner, “just wait, any day now” climate change nonsense, the effects on humanity and public health will be far worse because, no matter how much cash is thrown at the problem, climate shall change one way or the other.
One thing that the AGW crowd absolutely REFUSE to acknowledge is that agriculture will most likely boom with higher carbon dioxide levels. Even my colleagues at the University of Illinois admit that (albeit quietly, and only to one another….IL will do rather well in a warmer, higher CO2 environment).
The more nonsense these folks spout, the more ridiculous and desperate they appear. I used to be more sympathetic to their arguments, but I’ve since been turned against. Time for some real science to be brought to bear, WUWT has been a great starting point!
Phil:
For 0.00 dollars and a few hours of exposure and discussion, we have established that there is zero relationship between malaria and temperature, between mosquitos and temperture, and between global average temperature changes of 2 degrees and malaria and mosquitos.
Sending this money to ANY department at Penn State is a waste – and exposes the “follow the money” trend for some/much/most/all of the AGW-driven academically self-satisfying hype.
Read their words: Is there any doubt that they “know” what their conclusion will be?
In this one waste of money, can I not accuse the Etymology Dept of Penn State of murdering tens of thousands of innocent Africans by not buying them DDT directly? They (the department) already KNOW how to stop DDT. This “study” will not add anything to their existing state of knowledge, but worse, as propaganda that promotes the deadly agenda of the AGW extremists, harm even more millions by denying them the energy and clean water (concrete, roads, sewers, and water treatment plants all require energy and resources DENIED Africa by the AGW agenda!)
Does Dr. Golanky explain that bump in the data from Cyprus in July and August?
Dave: I would claim instead that the increased CO2 will serve to distract the mosquito, thus lowering their ability to track down and bite people ….. Right?
After all, raising sub-Saharan Africa’s temperature by 2 degrees will clearly increase the number of mosquitos in Africa.
Are we progressing to a point in the list of The World’s Greatest Scams where Piltdown Man will be joined by Meltdown Mann?
Brad says:
May 22, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Greenland rising from the ocean:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100518170218.htm
I just sent the following note to Climate Sceptics with a copy to Quirks and quarks:
“On today’s CBC Radio science show, Quirks and Quarks, there was an
interview with an expert on land elevations. (I could check up for a better
description of his specialty, as well as his name and his institution, but
as I will soon show, I don’t think he is worth the bother.) [It was Dixon.] He stated that the annual loss of ice from Greenland is 30 “jigatonnes”, which I presume to
be 30 gigatonnes, or 30 x 10^9 tonnes. Surely a horrendous mass, and enough
to explain the not-only-rising-but-accelerating change of elevation of
Greenland (which part not defined).
“I performed a little elementary math. According to Wikipedia, the area
of the Greenland ice sheet is 1.71 x 10^6 sq km. Dividing the first by the
second and converting units tells us that the change is equivalent to 17
kg/sq m. Who knew that the elevation of land is so sensitive to such a small
change of pressure??!! It makes you think twice about even walking around on
the earth. Who knows what damage we are doing every day!!”
IanM
OT but CNN has posted a live video stream from an underwater camera of the BP oil leak. I would think it fascinating if I had any clue what those pieces and thingies all are, how big they are, what they are for… can anyone help? The leaking oil I already spotted on my own itz the other stuff I need help on…
http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream2&hpt=T1
I have traveled and explored the Amazon jungle, starting from 1970 until 1996. In my first expeditions in Brazil we usally encountered smal boats called “regatao” working for the malaria control program. They were spraying DDT inside the houses and spreading kerosene and gasoil on ponds after the annual flood began to recede. We seldom saw people infested with malaria, nor did we get the parasite in spite of many mosquito bites we got during days and nights during months.
By 1971 the link between humans and non infected mosquitoes was broken because most people had been treated with cloroquinines, amodiaquinine and other prasite killing drugs. But after DDT’s ban in 1972 the Brazilian government stopped using it and infected mosquitoes coming from remote areas, where the DDT control program didn’t reach, established again the link infesting thousands and thousands humans. By the 1980s the capital city of Rondonia state was named “the malaria capital of the world”l. Brazil and almost the rest of South America fell back to their prior infestation levels.
If you watch closely in WHO’s South America map above, you will see a tiny white area were the republic of Ecuador is: they never accepted or enforced the DDT ban and has remained the ONLY tropical country free of malaria, with no environmental or humane damage whatsoever. There is not a slight doubt -among those who are honest experts in the issue- that DDT is the only clue to fighting malaria, and that was acknowledged by the WHO in September 16th, 2006 when recommended all its agencies to employ DDT in their indoor spraying programs. That decision made the greens see red and counterattacked with rage.
Bednets may prove somewhat useful, but people cannot carry a bednet around them the whole day. Mosquito repelents as 80% concentrated DEET and indoor DDT spraying IS the ONLY secure solution to the problem. And as the Plasmodium falciparun has become resistant to quinines, the other only proved therapy is the use of artemisinin, the compound obtained from Artemisia annua plant that has proved not to develop resistance by the parasite.
But Big Pharma insists that artemisinin must be used in a two drug pill -the other drug provided by them, of course- making the price of the therapy go tenfold higher than the simple 1 cent artemisinin tea taken two or three times a day. And for people who survive on $1 a day, it is the only way to go. You can grow Artemisia annua in your own garden. So WHO is now recommending the two-drug pill, because Big Pharma contributes with 75% of WHO’s budget, and who pays for keeping WHO alive has the right to ask something in return: as simple as to recommend their pills.
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING/local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html
The CNN link went dead but the BP link is up and running.
Besides, the oil is all natural. Hippies should be all over it.
Please be careful with claims of what DDT can do. I am in absolute agreement with the premise that malaria warming correlation is for the most part BS ( heat impacts infection rates – allowing malaria to overwinter in the mosquito population rather than simply in infected individuals-but warmth does not control the geographical presence of malaria).
Much harm was done by the ideological reaction against DDT use to the malaria eradication efforts (aid was often restricted to non DDT initiatives ) in the 3rd world and harm continues to be done. However the widespread use of DDT on cotton and other crops before the malaria eradication effort was completed in the 3rd world allowed many Anopholes mosquito populations to develop DDT resistance. DDT can no longer be expected to do what it once did. (and DDT while critical was not the only element in the West’s eradication effort)Despite this fact that there are still areas where DDT is essential -especially tin regions where pyrethrin insecticide resistance has developed .
I plead with all who read this site – do not prolong the scourge of malaria by overstating what DDT is now able to do. DDT is a vital tool-it is critical in some areas-but it is no longer a silver bullet worldwide- that time has passed. Malaria kills nearly a million people a year- mostly children under the age of 5. These children are not statistics they had names and they were loved by the families that lost them. The right, the left, AGWers, skeptics have no right to use these children as ideological fodder.
The eradication of malaria is complicated by counterfeit drugs, lack of knowledge, false claims (my plea is not to add to this), ideology, poverty, failed governments, lack of public health infrastructure and the International will to eradicate this disease. Do not add to this list!
The ultimate eradication of malaria given our current conditions may rely on the hopes for a vaccine. (Getting close- hope hope)In the interim- insecticides will continue to be a critical component in controlling malaria in addition to treatment of infected individuals and pesticide treated bed nets.
Malaria- like climate is complex- please do not simplify the hurdles to its eradication.
Poor GW gets no respect. Back in February of 2008, he went to Africa to see how his programs to alleviate malaria and HIV/AIDS were working out. Rocker and “humanitarian” Bob Geldof went along as he has had a long history of charitable work in Africa.
GW’s malaria project included bed nets treated with a DDT derivative. It included spraying the same insecticide on the walls inside and outside of the houses. Anopheles mosquitoes are night insects, so the bed nets and spraying the walls are effective.
GW’s program reduced malaria infection rates by as much as 87% in Tanzania.
http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/opinion/commentary/article/FAZALDIN125_20090123-210918/187284/
GW was on the path to saving millions of lives. The most I’ve ever done is to give blood every couple of months. (I am a universal donor with blood suitable for infants. The blood bank calls me up just before I can give blood again.) Something, but not anywhere near as much as what GW did.
And some people DO recognize it.
http://wizbangpop.com/2008/02/19/bob-geldof-in-rwanda-gives-bush-his-props.php
And then there is GW’s program for HIV/AIDS. The venue of this story is of particular interest because it is carried on a Gay web site:
http://www.365gay.com/news/fighting-aids-in-africa-may-be-bushs-legacy/
And another article on using DDT
http://www.malaria.org/news122.html
An American President is hailed a hero by Africans for doing more to fight HIV/AIDS and malaria in Africa than any other person. Ever. It would seem that this would be a “front page above the fold” news story for every media outlet in the country. Pride in our country and about saving lives and helping the poor. Indeed, throughout the entire world where his actions would give hope to the sick and needy.
So, Bunky, why didn’t you know about this? (An unwarranted assumption, as my sample size is so small. However, nobody I have talked to does know about it.) Have you been living on another planet? Or perhaps the people that told you to believe in Al Gore just forgot to tell you. I wonder why they kept it a secret. Perhaps they think that you just don’t care about saving millions of people from slow, horrible deaths. Do you? Care that is?
In puzzlement,
Steamboat Jack
(Jon Jewett’s evil twin)
Phil. says:
May 22, 2010 at 6:39 pm “In this case that happens to be Mike Mann but don’t think for one minute that is Mann’s 1.8 million malaria grant, it’s Thomas’s (it suits those who dislike Mann to think so though). Most of the money will go on grad students and post-docs.”
Phil- there should be no malaria in a future world- warm or cold. PERIOD. If you care about getting rid of malaria- put your money in vaccine research, bed nets, insecticide spraying, treatment and public health infrastructure. Studying how many more malaria cases there may or may not be diverts the vital public attention from the eradication efforts. It is an admission of failure and there is no justifiable reason to fail. I find studies such as this one unethical and immoral at best. Malaria and the suffering it causes is being used to advance academic careers and an agenda.
Perhaps a few pictures of the children who have died- or will suffer life long cognitive impairment as a result of this disease will show what this $1.8 million could have accomplished. I could give a damn about the needs of the post docs- let them work on a cure.
Precinct, there’s also this:
George W. Bush Remains An American Hero in Africa
We’d be remiss to not mention Bill and Melinda Gate.
Or Bono’s vist in 2005. I give Bono tremendous sense and credit for looking beyond the usual political boundaries to reach out to Bush here.
Precinct 201 says:
“Pride in our country and about saving lives and helping the poor. Indeed, throughout the entire world where his actions would give hope to the sick and needy.”
You are absolutely correct- no country has contributed more to malaria control than the US. Early efforts were led by the Rockerfeller Foundation, later by the CDC and USAID. You are correct Bush re-focused efforts on malaria control in Africa and backed it up with tax payer dollars. (Bill Gates is also due some kudos). There is much more work to be done but the US has every reason to be proud of its efforts to date.
There is an incisive critique of this thread over at The Idiot Tracker:
http://theidiottracker.blogspot.com/2010/05/compulsive-liar-anthony-watts-continues.html
“Compulsive liar Anthony Watts continues his crusade against real scientist Michael Mann
Moronic science wannabes like Anthony Watts have long had a wild hair to tear down the accomplishments of Michael Mann, whose hockey stick research proved conclusively that the end of the 20th century was warmer than any time in the last millenium. Dr. Mann, one of the world’s foremost climatologists, has beaten back ludicrous attacks on his research and his integrity, with the support of the National Academy of Sciences and multiple independent reviews of his (unimpeachable) conduct.”
What a joke. It seems like the Warmist’s are losing touch with reality, and becoming increasingly desperate.
The Mann made malaria connection once again display how effective opportunistic buzz-words are in an academic context of prospecting. Surf the trends using politically correct lingo and your odds to trike gold improve tremendously.
Looks to me like there really is a correlation – its just an inverse one 🙂
I had the honor to sit with Indur Goklany during our lunch with President Klaus in Washington DC in 2007, too.
The grant is disgraceful but I’ve read that it’s been decided in 2009, before ClimateGate, so it may be less shocking than indicated by the bare news here.
Does anyone know Oscar Whitman? Is he the legal husband of Michael Mann?
Mike McMillan said on May 22, 2010 at 4:07 pm
“The largest single factor is the prevalence of puddles in an area. Stagnant water, isolated puddles too small to have hungry minnows are where the mosquitoes come from, and that’s where the malaria comes from. Empty food tins, abandoned tires, any trash that will hold water will end up nurturing the critters. Cleaning up the trash in your environment will have a huge effect on the mosquito population. Climate change won’t.”
I spent some time in Singapore during the 1970’s. Their regulations were draconian. Teams would enter properties, spray ponds with kerosene, fine householders for having discarded food tins with water in the bottom. Fogging teams would disperse DDT around the Kampongs. It worked.
On Richard Black’s BBC blog, his latest AGW sales piece uses news about Craig Vetter’s “synthetic life” DNA experiments to suggest that this may have some application in geoengineering to save us. Black used a phrase to describe one of his imagined microbes that seems to relate to those paying for the work of Mann’s et al : a “CO2-sucker.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2010/05/playing_god_with_the_climate.html
There was a sudden outbreak of malaria – they called it ‘intermittent fever’ – on the lower Columbia River that started about 1830 and then spread south to California, with devastating effects.
It was obviously transported to both areas by humans and had nothing to do with climate. This malaria story has been a farce from day one.