Every Silver Lining Has A Cloud

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I noted on the news that there is a new plan afoot to cool down the planet. This one supposedly has been given big money by none other than Bill Gates.

The plan involves a fleet of ships that supposedly look like this:

Figure 1. Artist’s conception of cloud-making ships. Of course, the first storm would flip this over immediately, but heck, it’s only a fantasy, so who cares? SOURCE

The web site claims that:

Bill Gates Announces Funding for Seawater-Spraying Cloud Machines

The machines, developed by a San Francisco-based research group called Silver Lining, turn seawater into tiny particles that can be shot up over 3,000 feet in the air. The particles increase the density of clouds by increasing the amount of nuclei contained within. Silver Lining’s floating machines can suck up ten tons of water per second.

What could possibly go wrong with such a brilliant plan?

First, as usual the hype in this seems to have vastly outpaced the reality. According to CBS News Tech Talk:

The machines, developed by a San Francisco-based research group called Silver Lining, turn seawater into tiny particles that can be shot up over 3,000 feet in the air. The particles increase the density of clouds by increasing the amount of nuclei contained within. Silver Lining’s floating machines can suck up ten tons of water per second. If all goes well, Silver Lining plans to test the process with 10 ships spread throughout 3800 square miles of ocean. Geoengineering, an umbrella phrase to describe techniques that would allow humans to prevent global warming by manipulating the Earth’s climate, has yet to result in any major projects.

However, this is just a quote from the same web site that showed the ship above. CBS Tech Talk goes on to say:

A PR representative from Edelman later sent me this note from Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science: “Bill Gates made a grant to the University of Calgary to support research in possible unique solutions and responses to climate change. Administrating this research funding, David Keith of the University of Calgary and I made a grant to Armand Neukermanns for lab tests to investigate the technical feasibility of producing the fine seawater sprays required by the Latham cloud whitening proposal, one of many proposals for mitigating some of the adverse effects of climate change. This grant to Neukermanns is for lab tests only, not Silver Lining’s field trials.”

So Bill Gates isn’t funding the ships, and didn’t even decide to fund this particular fantasy, he just gave money to support research into “possible unique solutions”. Well, I’d say this one qualifies …

Next, after much searching I finally found the Silver Lining Project web site. It says on the home page:

The Silver Lining Project is a not-for-profit international scientific research collaboration to study the effects of particles (aerosols) on clouds, and the influence of these cloud effects on climate systems.

Well, that sure sounds impressive. Unfortunately, the web site is only four pages, and contains almost no information at all.

Intrigued, I emailed them at the address given on their web site, which is info(a)silverliningproj.org. I quickly got this reply:

Delivery has failed to these recipients or distribution lists:

info@silverliningproj.org

The recipient’s e-mail address was not found in the recipient’s e-mail system. Microsoft Exchange will not try to redeliver this message for you. Please check the e-mail address and try resending this message, or provide the following diagnostic text to your system administrator.

Hmmmm … not a good sign, four page web site, email address is dead … but onwards, ever onwards. Let’s look at a few numbers here.

First, over the tropical oceans, the rainfall is typically on the order of a couple of metres per year. Per the info above, they are going to test the plan with one ship for every 380 square miles. A square mile is about 2.6 square km, or 2.6 million square metres. Three hundred eighty square miles is about a thousand square km. Two metres of rainfall in that area is about two billion tonnes of water …

They say their ships will suck up “ten tonnes of water per second”. That’s about a third of a billion tonnes per year. So if they run full-time, they will increase the amount of water in the air by about 15% … which of course means 15% more rain. I don’t know how folks in rainy zones will feel about a 15% increase in their rainfall, but I foresee legalarity in the future …

Next, how much fuel will this use? The basic equation for pumps is:

Water flow (in liters per second) = 5.43 x pump power (kilowatts) / pressure (bars)

So to pump 10,000 litres per second (neglecting efficiency losses) with a pressure of 3 bars (100 psi) will require about 5,500 kilowatts. This means about 50 million kilowatt-hours per year. Figuring around 0.3 litres of fuel per kilowatt-hour (again without inefficiencies), this means that each ship will burn about fifteen million litres of fuel per year, so call it maybe twenty five million litres per year including all of the inefficiencies plus some fuel to actually move the ship around the ocean. All of these numbers are very generous, it will likely take more fuel than that. But we’ll use them.

Next, the money to do this … ho, ho, ho …

You can buy a used fire fighting ship for about fifteen million dollars,  but it will only pump about 0.8 tonnes/second. So a new ship to pump ten tonnes per second might cost on the order of say twenty million US dollars.

You’d need a crew of about twelve guys to run the ship 24/7. That’s three eight-hour shifts of four men per shift. On average they will likely cost about US$80,000 per year including food and benefits and miscellaneous, so that’s about a million per year.

Then we have fuel costs of say US$ 0.75 per litre, so there’s about ten million bucks per year there.

Another web site says:

A study commissioned by the Copenhagen Consensus Centre, a European think-tank, has estimated that a wind-powered fleet of 1,900 ships to cruise the world’s oceans, spraying sea water from towers to create and brighten clouds, could be built for $9 billion. The idea would be to operate most of the ships far offshore in the Pacific so they would not interfere with weather on land.

My numbers say $38 billion for the ships … and “wind-powered”? As a long time sailor, I can only say “get real” …

However, that’s just for the ships. Remember that we are talking about $11 million per ship for annual pumping fuel costs plus labour … which is an annual cost of another $20 billion dollars …

Finally, they say that they are going to test this using one ship per 380 square miles … and that they can blanket the world with 1,900 ships. That makes a total of around three quarters of a million square miles covered by the 1,900 ships.

The surface of the world ocean, however, is about 140 million square miles, so they will be covering about half a percent of the world ocean with the 1,900 ships. Half a percent. If that were all in the Pacific Ocean per the citation above, here’s how much it would cover:

Figure 2. Area covered by 1,900 cloud making ships.

Yeah, brightening that would make a huge difference, especially considering half of the time it wouldn’t even see the sun …

See, my problem is that I’m a practical guy, and I’ve spent a good chunk of my life working with machinery around the ocean. Which is why I don’t have a lot of time for “think-tanks” and “research groups”. Before I start a project, I do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to see if it makes sense.

My calculations show that this will cost forty billion dollars to start, and twenty billion per year to run, not counting things like ship maintenance and redundancy and emergencies and machinery replacement and insurance and a fleet of tankers to refuel the pump ships at sea and, and, and …

And for all of that, we may make a slight difference on half a percent of the ocean surface. Even if I’ve overestimated the costs by 100% (always possible, although things usually cost more than estimated rather than less), that’s a huge amount of money for a change too small to measure on a global scale.

Now Bill Gates is a smart guy. But on this one, I think he may have let his heart rule his head. One of the web sites quoted above closes by saying:

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation did not respond to requests for comment on Tuesday, nor did U.S. entrepreneur Kelly Wanser, who is leading the Silver Lining Project.

Smart move … what we have here is a non-viable non-solution to a non-problem. I wouldn’t want to comment either, especially since this non-solution will burn about 27 billion litres (about 7 billion US gallons) of fuel per year to supposedly “solve” the problem supposedly caused by CO2 from burning fuel …

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anna v
May 16, 2010 9:57 pm

Willis Eschenbach says:
May 16, 2010 at 1:23 pm
This is true but misleading. Clouds currently reflect about 79 W/m2. So rather than a 1.1% increase in global albedo being required, global cloud albedo will need to increase by 4.7%.

They are taking this into account.
calculate an albedo of A(Z,  L, n)=0.495.
to the new concentration of cloud drops will be 191 cm−3. This will make the new value of A(Z,  L, n)=0.584.
That is close to 10%
When I read it, I had the aha thought, that the tropical albedo is not the world albedo.
That sounds like a lot … but it is only 0.4% of the earth’s surface. Now remember that we need to increase the global cloud albedo by 4.7%. So how much do we need to increase the albedo of 4% of the earth’s surface to give us a global increase of 4.7%?
The intelligent cruising means going where the clouds are, so the actual question is:
How much of the world cloud albedo is within their intelligent cruising grid. Proposed in fig4.
If it is 50% and that would bring the change induced within your 4.7%.
BTW do you have a link for the 79watts/m^2 albedo from clouds?
For some reason, you are not being objective about this proposal.

anna v
May 16, 2010 11:01 pm

Continuing on albedo,
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/571_Cloud_Feedback_Notes.pdf
Estimates from ERBE (Ramanathan, et al. 1989, Harrison, et al. 1990)
showed that clouds approximately double the albedo of Earth from an estimated clear-sky value of 0.15, to its average value with clouds of 0.3.

So it does seem that clouds add 0.15 to the average albedo, and the real values can go from very low, for low optical thickness, to 60%
http://www.brockmann-consult.de/mapp/ATBD_Pdf/07_MAPP-ATBD-CACOT.pdf
An additional reason for the grid being over the ocean is that snowed up land and ice have high albedos, which will be masked when clouds are there, whereas the ocean has low albedo, from 1 to 10%.
http://www.climatedata.info/Forcing/Forcing/albedo.html

anna v
May 17, 2010 9:41 pm

It seems in their paper that they concentrate on the map “cells” which have an area of 7720km^2, about 20 times your estimated coverage area. Nevertheless they say”
These crude engineering lumped calculations should be performed with the actual values at a representative sample of times for every cell that has not been excluded on grounds of being downwind of land with dirty air, upwind of drought-stricken regions or too close to busy shipping routes. The wind speed data for each cell should be checked to ensure that there is enough input power for, as will be developed shortly, wind energy provides the principal source for driving the vessels and creating the spray. With an efficient generator, the 30 kg s−1 flow rate will be reached at 8 m s−1 wind speed. If the nucleus lifetime was the longest estimate of 5 days (Houghton 2004), this would bring the concentration up to levels found over land and lead to much reduced effectiveness. Cells will be placed in rank order to see how many are needed to achieve any target cooling and either how many vessels should be put in each cell or how many cells should be treated by one vessel. Vessel movements can be planned by looking at the best-cell list for the next month.
Bold mine. So, if it is possible for one vessel to treat many cells, the estimate of 380km^2 from the news releases is too low. You take a two mile width. But the vessel is moving perpendicular to the prevailing wind so in effect the width should be much larger , since the wind will be sweeping the swath released. Can that be the difference?
You are right that they are not providing clear numbers for this.
I found this for smoke dispersion :
http://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/fire99/PDF/f99159.pdf
A calculation from static conditions.
The swath in length is kilometers, and for the moving vessel in discussion, this would be continuous swaths released perpendicular to the wind.

anna v
May 18, 2010 11:01 pm

Here are some world cloud amounts from
http://bbso.njit.edu/Research/EarthShine/literature/Palle_etal_2006_EOS.pdf
Lets take from this that 50% of the earth is covered in clouds on average
If we can go where the clouds are, that makes your 20% into 10% of the globes area.
If we can change 10% of cloud cover albedo, that would go to world albedo 1.5 percent since clouds contribute 15% of the 30% albedo of the earth. They aim at a change of 1% to overcome the the CO2 supposed effect, so considering that ocean is 70% and most clouds are over the ocean and that the ships will move in the tropics where heat input is larger, the numbers in watts may well be working out.
So the question for me is if a ship can really cover with spray output one of their cells of 7700km^2.
If it can then 1900 ships will do, since there are 6000 something cells over the ocean.
In any case, I do not think there is a CO2 problem, but the ship is an intriguing proposal and one prototype should be built and tested. It will be like a fire extinguisher, there if necessary. An innocuous precautionary principle.
By the time this is done maybe we will be looking at geo engineering for heating the earth 🙂 in case of the ice age coming. Like mirrors in space to increase sunshine.

anna v
May 18, 2010 11:56 pm

you are correct, about the 77.000 per cell.

Charles Wilson
May 19, 2010 6:26 pm

Anna v. — your favorite, adding to Planes’ exhaust — is an old Lovelock favorite. Yes, Mr. Green Himself. For a Decade he has wanted SOMETHING built, & kept in Reserve, so if things started Changing, we had an alternative to:
Everybody dieing.
… I guess People are part of Gaia, too.
PS: It’s easy to REVERSE Cooling: — lots of SOOT will warm the Arctic. Just turn off the Coal Plant Scrubbers.
Example: The high Soot years in Greenland Ice were 1900-1920, explaining the Low Ice of 1922. Soot is figure 3’s “BC” (Black Carbon)
http://www.pnas.org/content/105/34/12140.figures-only

anna v
May 19, 2010 8:21 pm

Charles Wilson says:
May 19, 2010 at 6:26 pm
In case of “the ice age cometh”, soot would work if there is sun to shine on the snow.
If there is extensive cloud cover around the poles and lower, where the snow is, this will not make a difference.
Another version of “it is the clouds, ….” .
It needs a lot of study to know what to do against the sure prophecy of an ice age, but people are running like Chicken Little to stop a small increase in temperature they should be grateful for.

CRS, Dr.P.H.
May 19, 2010 10:21 pm

Fermilab posted the video for the colloquia presentation “Cloud feedbacks on climate: a challenging scientific problem” by Dr.
Joel Norris, Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
It was quite fascinating, he goes into great detail about the issues we’ve been discussing. The IPCC models pretty much collapsed regarding the effects of clouds, according to Joel.
http://vmsstreamer1.fnal.gov/VMS_Site_03/Lectures/Colloquium/100512Norris/index.htm#

May 20, 2010 12:08 pm

I haven’t read all the responses but I am inclined to think that a high-tech solution is not the right answer. So what is? Well, I suggest planting billions of trees on a worldwide scale, in all countries. Trees transpire, which involves taking up water thru their root system and literally pumping it out into the air to stay cool. This adds moisture to the atmosphere. Furthermore, trees can create a microclimate, where crops can be planted under their canopy. Their roots bind the earth together, preventing the formation of dust bowls and deserts. And they give fruit, nuts, timber and other valuable products. What a gift of God! I have planted approx. 900 trees in my life, even though I have no land of my own, and I’m not in the business. If we are serious about cooling the planet, let’s get planting! Throwing multiple billions at a high-tech solution is a white elephant.

James Rayner
May 22, 2010 1:28 pm

2 things, firstly the ships would be wind powered, so no fuel costs…
secondly, they would be unmanned, so no crew requirement…
(Salter et al. 2008)
Take a read of this paper:
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/366/1882/3989.full
To have been published in a peer reviewed journal suggests reasonably strong support to their conclusions regarding the projects feasability…

anna v
May 24, 2010 6:18 am

Well, Willis,
You are determined to see the glass 9/10ths empty, whereas I am determined to see it 2/10ths full :).
The map is interesting, but for sure there would be similar regions in the southern hemisphere, and there there are no ship lanes. I do not buy the “they say it is not so”. Certainly I would need a map of the tracks of the planned routes of ships and the frequency and size etc to be convinced, not by a simple handwave, that what is being displayed is what happens where there are enough ships to leave tracks.
Lets leave it at this. In any case my defense has to do with using this solution tactically until nature takes over and makes null and void any worry about AGW.

Matt Ferr
June 20, 2010 7:27 pm

Kelly Wanser has a history of making bold statements on behalf of other people, most recently as CEO of ColdSpark, where she frequently put completely fabricated customer quotes on public facing materials. This sounds exactly like what she’s done here.

Alex Uthoff
January 3, 2011 6:49 am

I cannot believe this is a serious scientific endeavor! In the natural world when our sun heats up the earth and the oceans the naturally cleanse the saline water to fresh water into clouds! Now they, are proposing to pump SALT water into the atmosphere? Never in the history of our earth has this happened!!!! What would be the outcome? Just imagine a saline cloud dumping salt water over the Amazon jungle!! Or the Congo! Or your back yard! We would in a sense be killing off all green plants on this EARTH. Are they insane? Has anyone thought of what would happen if this was to become a reality?

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