When I last looked at the Ap geomagnetic index back in January, it looked pretty grim.
Now with the release yesterday of the new Ap data from NOAA, we see the largest jump in 2 years.
We’ve had a rash of sunspots lately, and it appears sol is awakening from its magnetic slumber. The question is: “dead cat bounce” or start of an upwards trend?
“Now with the release yesterday of the new Ap data from NOAA, we see the largest jump in 2 years.”?
It looks to me like the largest jump in over 3 years: Nov. 06 – Jan. 10.
Policyguy says:
May 5, 2010 at 12:02 pm
We know that the sun is becoming more active (about time), but how does that relate to other cycles considering that we have just come through a long minimum?
Here is the ‘ramp up’ for the the last three minima: http://www.leif.org/research/Active%20Region%20Count.png
It seems the sun is on track to the predicted low maximum. BTW, the dashed line is Hathaway’s latest prediction [it has now come down to match mine].
Here is Ap since the 1840s: http://www.leif.org/research/Ap-Monthly-Averages-1844-Now.png
It is not unusual that after the low values at minimum there is a jump up, e.g. 1902 and 1880.
In recent weeks they have been counting every little mark they could including what they described as a microspot and another that was forming but had no sunspot no. because it wasn’t a sunspot but they still counted at 12.
You’ve done it at last – you’ve made contact with your inner hockey-stick! I demand that Al Gore now call for a stop to all carbon-creating activities on the Sun. You know it makes sense…
Don’t be fastidious, they are specs, but visible. This cycle may be your last chance for couple of decades to come.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC14.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GandF.htm
I too wonder if we are comparing apples with oranges like we are doing both with surface temperature readings and hurricaine strengths where changes in methodology, technology or siting issues give readings that reinforce AGW myths but may be really not occuring.
For an apples to apples sunspot comparision I like this site
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
Why is the layman sunspot count not mentioned here ? What would be the reaction of the guys operating the landscheidt heritage site on this statement from american government institution(s) apparently biassed by the agw proponents as a consequence of their huge financial interests in a taxation of combustion products ?
Please do not blame the burocrats or mr mann , being puppets in the hands of large manipulators or financials interests like goldman sachs . A little clearer picture here would be appreciated . The truth and not the devil is in the details .
Leif,
I would love to hear your thoughts/predictions.
Mr Peake raises a point that has been nagging at my mind for some time: are the spots we’re counting really comparable to spots seen at the time of Maunder and Dalton? These tiny pimples we’re getting on the solar images are surely only seen because of our instrumentation — how many spots would an astronomer 100 or 200 years ago have identified on the sun during the recent activity? We’ve seen the sunspot number go as high as 70 lately. Would this even register on primitive instruments?
Are the graphs of sunspot counts going back to the Maunder minimum normalized to remove this “instrumentation bias”? If not then we should regard all numbers in the 20th century to be progressively inflated relative to earlier numbers.
If you look at prior spikes similar to the current one, you’ll see that they tend to be shortlived. Seems old Sol is prone to giving brief magnetic bursts that register, but are followed by reduced activity. Expect the smoothed curve to gradually follow the usual pattern.
One last note: NOAA’s sunspot count was down for April due to a 13-day period with no spots, so the solar cycle 24 may be under way, but sputteringly so, and below even their modest prediction curve.
Were back to counting specks
Henry Chance is right about the hockey stick action. If this trend continues, then the sun could be completely covered in spots in less than a decade. If we truly love our planet, we must make whatever sacrifice necessary to stop this from happening. Perhaps we could ship all that hidden heat off to the sun. That may not actually stop the sunspots from forming, but whether it works or not isn’t the point: the point is to do something, and fast. And preferably something which involves lots and lots of money.
Perhaps the time has come to bring back the sale of Indulgences?
vukcevic says:
May 5, 2010 at 1:31 pm
Don’t be fastidious, they are specs, but visible. This cycle may be your last chance for couple of decades to come.
I tried about an hour ago. All I can see are the 4 spots of the high latitude group. Even they are a mid-grayish tone, not dark at all. Your advice to get out there and see some spots while you can is good, though. L&P is wreaking havoc despite the confusion on the part of SWPC/NOAA and others.
btw… I came across a reference that Rudolf Wolf would have preferred to base the Sunspot Index on area, not depending on group or spot counts. Anybody know anything more about that?
Frank L M, indulgences are already on sale. Its called cap & trade, but no doubt you knew that already.
From Frank Lee MeiDere on May 5, 2010 at 2:51 pm:
These days they are called political campaign contributions. Pay enough to the right people and you can even get a Presidential pardon.
Ref – Frank Lee MeiDere says:
May 5, 2010 at 2:51 pm
“..If this trend continues, then the sun could be completely covered in spots in less than a decade. If we truly love our planet, we must make whatever sacrifice necessary to stop this from happening…”
_______________________________
As I recall the Aztec’s had a wonderful ceremony to appease the Sun. We need a pure heart. Will Fat Albert’s do? I understand he has a very, very big heart; and he says he’s pure. I understand too, that he is much in favor with the Sun; that he only hates people who make things hot. If his family is permitted to retain his Nobel Prize, I’ll bet they’d agree too. Do you think we could get the Pope to bypass all the rigamarole about miracles and just make him a saint when he blasts off like Tonny Lee Jones and slams into the Sun? “Saint Albert The Great”, why just the sound of it sounds so cooling.
PS: On “Ap” spikes, watching the Sun is a lot like watching paint dry. That said, my money is on quirky behavior and gradual cooling for Planet Earth; ups and downs, cool years, hot years, wet years, dry years, rising polar ice, falling polar ice, rising seas, fallings seas, but longterm down, cool, wet, rising polar ice, falling seas, less people.
Of course you realise, this makes Anthony “Martin Luther,” and WUWT “The 95 Thesis,” right?
Leif, can you please tell me what the date numbers on the bottom of your TSI, etc graph are (likely something quite simple), ie. it ends 2010.54 what does the 54 mean?
Thanks Lief.
fynney says:
May 5, 2010 at 1:56 pm
Leif, I would love to hear your thoughts/predictions.
http://www.leif.org/research/Predicting%20the%20Solar%20Cycle.pdf
R. Craigen says:
May 5, 2010 at 1:57 pm
how many spots would an astronomer 100 or 200 years ago have identified on the sun during the recent activity?
http://www.leif.org/research/Rudolf%20Wolf%20Was%20Right.pdf
rbateman says:
May 5, 2010 at 3:01 pm
btw… I came across a reference that Rudolf Wolf would have preferred to base the Sunspot Index on area, not depending on group or spot counts. Anybody know anything more about that?
It is correct. Wolf wanted to use areas, but found that the older data was not amenable to determine the areas, so came up with the next-best thing: the Wold number.
Leif Svalgaard says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
May 5, 2010 at 4:01 pm
the Wolf number.
As an amateur (ham) radio operator, I can only hope that the sunspots are finally on the rise. It’s been really boring on the air for the past few years & I was looking forward to cycle 24 coming on strong. Been very disappointing indeed so far. For anyone interested in the solar cycle regarding communication, this guy does an excellent job.
http://www.arrl.org/news/the-k7ra-solar-update-109
Ian Holton says:
May 5, 2010 at 3:58 pm
it ends 2010.54 what does the 54 mean?
It means that the fraction of the year is 0.54, i.e. that the number of days into the year is 0.54 x 365.2422 = 197 days. 2010.5 means halfway through 2010. 2005.3333 means a third of the way through 2010, etc.
This ought to be of considerable interest here.
A team from UCLA have discovered a previously unknown basic mode of energy transfer from the solar wind to the Earth’s magnetosphere.
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/scientists-discover-surprise-in-101025.aspx
Anthony/Mods: Perhaps this important discovery merits a thread of its own?
REPLY: Sure, here it is: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/10/solar-wind-suprise-this-discovery-is-like-finding-it-got-hotter-when-the-sun-went-down/
Going by the method NOAA use to count sunspots, can we trust their accuracy with the Ap values?
For some unknown reason, everytime I try to post the Layman’s Spot Count site, my post evaporates.
Yesterday it was 10.
jinki says:
May 5, 2010 at 4:28 pm
Going by the method NOAA use to count sunspots, can we trust their accuracy with the Ap values?
No, because they round down, so that 2.99 is reported as 2, not three. The official Ap number comes from here: http://www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de/kp_index/kptab.html