MOSCOW, April 23 (UPI) — A Russian scientist says the Arctic may be getting colder, not warmer, which would hamper the international race to discover new mineral fields.
An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998 could last for years, freezing the northern marine passage and making it impassable without icebreaking ships, said Oleg Pokrovsky of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory.
“I think the development of the shelf will face large problems,” Pokrovsky said Thursday at a seminar on research in the Polar regions.
Scientists who believe the climate is warming may have been misled by data from U.S. meteorological stations located in urban areas, where dense microclimates creates higher temperatures, RIA Novosti quoted Pokrovsky as saying. “Politicians who placed their bets on global warming may lose the pot,” Pokrovsky said.
h/t to CTM
Da! (Sorry, just wanted to be first up)
Scientists who believe the climate is warming may have been misled by data from U.S. meteorological stations located in urban areas
These russians are well informed! They are reading WUWT, and the great work of http://www.surfacestations.org is trascending all frontiers.
If anybody knows cold, it’s the Russians.
As best I know, the Russians don’t have a dog in the AGW fight, other than a strategic interest in how the rest of the world can wreck their economies by taxing carbon, so I think their researchers are probably less likely to be looking for a predetermined outcome.
What irony! The Russians have embraced empirical scientific standards, while our elites have embraced the scientific standards of Lysenko!
Do you have the link on the original story?
While consensus never has been a good proxy for scientific reality, it is good to see some sensible observations coming in to verify the good work you and others have done to highlight the observational bias that appears to be at best slipshod and at worst political manipulation.
These guys are right at the whiplash end of the weather/climate variations and as such should be taken seriously IMO
Caption competition
Scientists who believe the climate is warming may have been misled by …
…METAR data
or
…hidden decline
Well Enneagram (12:40:58), I was going to comment, but you put it pretty succinctly there already.
Several comments:
1. Arctic temperatures coming down; CO2 levels increasing. It’s all caused by Polar SUVs.
2. Check out the last sentence. Politicians soon will not have a “pot to pee in”. I love Russian humor.
I recall a scientist from the Russian Academy of Sciences said in a news conference back in 2005 that the world was in for a protracted cooling trend lasting 20-30 years, contrary to the popular opinion forwarded by things like “An Inconvenient Truth.” I wonder if this report is from the same or different researchers.
God bless the Russkies! They’ve been saying, “Nyet!” for quite a while now… And the warmistas ignore them at their peril just like they ignore India and China. Consensus? Not on this planet and not on Lenin’s Birth/Earth Day either…
I’m sorry, I simply don’t believe it. After all, Al Gore, the famous inventor of the Internet, told us that the Arctic would be ice free within five years. Those Russians simply don’t know what they are talking about.
[/sarc_off]
Ray:
here it is in german;
http://de.rian.ru/science/20100423/126040500.html
Which I summed up in ENGLISH here:
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/
Note how the UPI left out some inconvenient parts
…an Arctic cold snap that began in 1998…
Buh-buh-but what about the melting muskeg releasing all that methane? And the vanishing ice cap, and polar bears bursting into flames?
Darn pragmatic Rooskies, looking at actual temperatures instead of computer models!
With the coming economic recovery, we will see an increase in the rate of growth of CO2 emissions. Since some folks think that the temperature increase is proportional to the rate of increase of CO2, I am betting that we will see warming again.
When a Russian says its going to get a little cold its time to pack your bags and fly South (well, as far as the Equator;-)
You don’t think he’s just trying to scare us do you?
Anyone know the exchange rate for Peso’s?
I don’t see any indication that Arctic temperatures are coming down significantly.
Russians are smart. They have a lot of icebreakers and experience. This in not armchair stuff for them. They were not joking when they accused some warmists of fudging data and temps that came from Russia.
Our carbon crisis cartel will not regain their trust.
They may have more than one northerly station and they probably don’t use METAR.
Lon Hocker (13:15:31) :
With the coming economic recovery…
Thus I immediately knew your post was meant to be humorous.
“Politicians who placed their bets on global warming may lose the pot,” Pokrovsky said.
No, they won’t lose their pot – they’ll just have to grow it further south.
The quiet Sun of 2009, the late stuttering start to Solar Cycle 24, the cold winter of 2009/2010 with the record negative Arctic Oscillation off the scale for December, January and February points to a long, cold retreat from COP-16 that Stalin would appreciate. The Russian report is a suitable portent to mark Lenin’s birthday.
An unrelated comment.
See link below for the latest global warming attributed crisis. We are all doomed. Again. Watch that fungus.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63L66H20100422?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a49:g43:r4:c0.117647:b33256336:z0
With better economic times, will concern for climate change rebound? Will people see Cap And Trade as more affordable and therefore less objectionable when jobs recover? Or has skepticism really taken hold?
where have all the trolls gone???
I’m curious about the Arctic cold snap that began in 1998. Is the Arctic really in a cold snap? Is it a cold snap relative to the 1998 “peak?” Is the Russian Arctic in a cold snap that began in 1998?
Those pesky details. Anybody know of an article that expands upon this?
I like how Steven Goddard has even distanced himself from the nonsence this post is spreading.
Holger Dansk (13:45:11) :
where have all the trolls gone???
They may be stuck in that now 22 day old, 9 year record high Arctic ice cover.
Thank you.
pgosselin (13:10:44) :
here it is in german;
http://de.rian.ru/science/20100423/126040500.html
Anthony
Please check your source. It may be badly interpreted. Your story says.
An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998 could last for years, freezing the northern marine passage and making it impassable
The link given by pgosselin says Google interpreted:-
Since about 1998 the climate cool off. “There will, of course, no ice, but temperatures will fall to the level of the cold decade from 1950 to 1960,”
Who would have thought that the red arctic on the GISS plots were due to an ‘M’ ?
hoho!
The revenge of the ‘M’eteorologists over the Climate Alarmists.
20-30 years is about the length of a cooling phase in an oceanic multidecal oscillation. And when has the northern marine passage been open outside of the crest of a warming phase?
Pretty safe predictions, I’d say.
OT, but I do not seem to be able to open the Tips and Notes part of the website. Internet Explorer crashes each time I click on it. Any ideas?
REPLY: More memory, Firefox
Holger Dansk (13:45:11) : “where have all the trolls gone???”
Evaporated with the sunspots.
Pascvaks (13:15:34) :…For the peruvian currency Sol (Sun) it’s S/2.82 per US$..where you can choose from 32°C to minus 25°C, also where you can drive a car from sea level to 5050 meters high in a 120 kms.(75 miles) ride.
Hey John Galt, why not just give your motor design away, that will solve all the carbon emision problems.
Thanks, wasn’t memory?? Firefox works fine.
Urban Heat Insulation is not End-of-World.
End-of-World is when Urban run out of fuel in middle of Ice Age.
John Galt (13:48:30) : About the 55-60 years temperatures cycle (from UN FAO Org.)
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y2787e/y2787e08.pdf
Another Russian paper:
http://www.giurfa.com/abdusamatov2.pdf
Oleg Pokrovsky on Ice extent:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/july_report/downloads/pdf/panarctic/6_Pokrovsky_JulyReport_JuneData.pdf
Of course, Mr. Gore and his friends at IPCC will claim that this is a plot funded by Big Oil/the Russian Mafia/Mrs. Putin’s hairdresser (choose any one/any two/all three) to discredit Mr. Gore’s politica……er…..scientific truth.
sarc. off (I hope).
MartinGAtkins (14:08:07) :
…
Anthony
Please check your source. It may be badly interpreted. Your story says.
An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998 could last for years, freezing the northern marine passage and making it impassable
The link given by pgosselin says Google interpreted:-
Since about 1998 the climate cool off. “There will, of course, no ice, but temperatures will fall to the level of the cold decade from 1950 to 1960,”
Actually it’s google’s translator that’s wrong…it interpreted Eiszeit
(Ice Age) as ice….
„Es wird natürlich keine Eiszeit geben, doch die Temperaturen werden auf den Stand des kalten Jahrzehnts von 1950 bis 1960 fallen“, sagte Pokrowski, …
roughly, “Naturally there won’t be an Ice Age, but (nevertheless) the temperatures will fall to the levels of the cold decade(s) from 1950 to 1960″…
REPLY: The source is UPI shown in the article. United Press.
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2010/04/23/Scientist-says-Arctic-getting-colder/UPI-94431272034113/
-A
The alternative translation would suggest someone has their wires crossed. Only a nut or a mistranslation would claim the arctic has been in a ten year cold snap.
John Galt (13:42:22) :
With better economic times, will concern for climate change rebound? Will people see Cap And Trade as more affordable and therefore less objectionable when jobs recover? Or has skepticism really taken hold?
I’m an optimist. Real scientists, encouraged by our friend Anthony, will actually begin to understand enough climate science that the AGW theory will be shown to be wrong. At the same time, enough intelligent folks will recognize that we cannot spend our way to prosperity, and our government will stop throwing money away. This might take a few years, so be patient.
While you’re waiting, send Anthony a few bucks to help him with this effort, and please also send money to the candidates that you support.
Could happen.
But it seems that we don’t have to learn how to scream that “the debate is over” in Russian.
8 inches of snow in Denver today. Must be some sneaky kids had a school prayer answered. They go home early today!!!
Like Romm said, permanent heat and droughts in the southwest.
mjk (13:52:54) :
I don’t disagree with this quote from the article.
“Politicians who placed their bets on global warming may lose the pot,” Pokrovsky said.
Didn’t Siberia have record cold this year? That said the Russians may do things differently, but the know what they are doing….
They are still spacers while we examine our navel…
NZ Willy (14:16:21) :
Holger Dansk (13:45:11) : “where have all the trolls gone???”
Evaporated with the sunspots.
———
I suppose all those who believe that AGWT is likely correct are considered trolls on this site?
Anyway, this very small news item, posted at all the AGW skeptic sites on the seems to have no data, research, or long terms study to back it up. Be that as it may, I’m willing to look at this “scientist’s” data and research if there is any…but there probably isn’t any at all, though I’m sure it will show up on Rush Limbaugh’s program as “evidence there is no melting” going on in the arctic.
Jeff (14:43:25) :
roughly, “Naturally there won’t be an Ice Age, but (nevertheless) the temperatures will fall to the levels of the cold decade(s) from 1950 to 1960
It’s not that part that caught my eye. The German source has:-
Seit etwa 1998 kühle das Klima ab
Google translates as:- Since about 1998 the climate cool off.
The http://www.upi.com article has:- An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998
As you can see they are not the same thing. I’m not sure what the original source is but the German version is accurate using UAH data and the English version is very wrong.
blackswhitewash.com (14:51:07) :
The alternative translation would suggest someone has their wires crossed. Only a nut or a mistranslation would claim the arctic has been in a ten year cold snap.
Why so? It is the winds that determine how much ice does or does not get pushed out of the Arctic to melt, not the temperature. The Sea Ice is not fixed like the land in Siberia or Canada is. Why would it be nuts to have a cold snap in the Arctic??
‘Politicians who placed their bets on global warming may lose their pot’
They already lost the plot.
The AMO is linked to Arctic temps and ice amount possibly via changes in the North Atlantic Drift. With the AMO heading south Arctic temps are likely to follow.
The strongly negative AO this winter was probably not a freak event, but a change in trend, expect more of the same.
wws (12:51:03) :
What irony! The Russians have embraced empirical scientific standards, while our elites have embraced the scientific standards of Lysenko
It’s probably their experience of Lysenkoism that makes them now truly skeptical.
Lon Hocker (14:52:28) :
enough intelligent folks will recognize that we cannot spend our way to prosperity, and our government will stop throwing money away.
only after the money runs out; until then, it’s gravy train time babe!
Henry chance (15:04:22) :
8 inches of snow in Denver today. Must be some sneaky kids had a school prayer answered.
————–
No Henry, there was not 8 inches of snow in Denver today, but we did get some in the higher terrain south and west of town. We might get some tonight, and that would be appropriate as April is one of Denver’s snowiest months…
The arctic has actually been warming while the globe as a whole has stood still. The reason is that at the turn of the twentieth century a rearrangement of the North Atlantic current system began to direct warm tropical waters towards the Arctic Ocean. It is quite likely that the Gulf Stream northern extension between Iceland and Scandinavia is responsible for that. It keeps the Russian arctic ports ice free by having melted approximately a third of the arctic sea ice that would exist in its absence. But the warming was not uniform, paused in mid-century, and then started up again in the seventies. Kaufman et al. last November showed that this warming interrupted a two thousand year old cooling period which they attributed to orbital variations. If you look at their temperature curve it looks like another hockey stick only this one is real, for other sources have reported the same twentieth century warming. While Kaufman himself wants to attribute it to carbon dioxide greenhouse effect this is completely impossible for two reasons. First, the warming itself is confined to the arctic, and second, we know that the partial pressure of carbon dioxide did not take a jump at the turn of the century as required by the laws of physics if it is the cause of warming. The mid-century pause in warming was very likely caused by a rearrangement of currents and if there is another pause coming that will also be its likely cause. I don’t know where the Russians get their info but if they have been tracking ocean currents they may be on the right track. See “What Warming?” available on Amazon.com for more info on the Arctic.
Has anyone run a simulation of previous, extended cold periods against current food production to determine just how bad things might get?
Ironic: Google popped a Scientology.org ad on this article. And here I’ve labeled the “Hockey Team” as climate scientologists…
Even the Russians have figured it out … ‘misled’ as in Soviet Union?
“Scientists who believe the climate is warming may have been misled by data from U.S. meteorological stations located in urban areas, where dense microclimates creates higher temperatures, RIA Novosti quoted Pokrovsky as saying.”
Well that and a little secret late night computer elixir.
Well while the Russians were thinking about this; it turns out that a group of “200 experts in geosciences and other scientific and policy disciplines met at Asilomar near Pacific Grove on the Monterey Peninsula (CA) to confront a new kind of risky research: large scale geoengineering projects aimed at countering the buildup of greenhouse gases in the attmosphere.”
Now Asilomar is one of those “retreat” places, that is often frequented by people with some kind of mental disorder or another. The pristine sea air of the California Coast, and Monterey in particular is just what is needed to calm these nut jobs into some semblence of normalcy.
So a perfect place for these geo-engineers and “policy makers.”
One of their inventions is a monster CO2 sucker (their term for it) to extract CO2 from the atmosphere.
It is very simple in concept; you simply pass the entire atmosphere through a battery of sucking fans; and a horde of government paid Maxwell’s Demons, grab each CO2 molecule as it comes through and exterminates it.
Well some of them get “Sequestered; because we already have too much Oxygen; while others get recycled, to extract some Oxygen and leave behind some carbon.
Presumably the carbon gets turned into high modulus carbon fibres to make the near zero weight carbon fiber automobiles of tomorrow; while the rest gets used to make carbon fiber fly rods, so we can all relax on a trout stream after our Asilomar deprogramming.
The CO2 sucker fans are about the size od an average, house and the have a four high stack of them that forms a fence that disappears in the distance; Tehy may be contemplating the use of this fencing material for the US/Mexico border fence; well that is if they can agree on whether to suck north or south.
Well some of the early part of this “Asilomar-2 International Conference On Climate Intervention Technology” is described in detail in SCIENCE vol 328 for April 2 2010.
It seems the issue is just one day off the silly day, that should have been reserved for this “retreat ” for crazy people.
Apaprently most of the usual suspects were there; such as the Sierra Club; and also the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; who if Dr Chu’s absence, probably need another gravy train or two to request funding for.
Yes your tax dollars at work; and remember this was an International gravy train.
Now I have always been a fan of extracting hydrogen from water so we can burn it to get free clean green renewable energy; but now they have this even more ingenious idea; to do the same thing with CO2, and extract the carbonto burn for fuel; which will enable the world to shut down all the coal mining forever.
Isn’t that wonderful ?
R. Gates (16:00:34) :
We are now into the fourth weekend of the kid soccer season, and so far have managed to have every Saturday either snowed out, rained out, or just miserably cold. Same pattern as four the last seven or eight soccer seasons.
I’ve taken to playing indoors because the spring/fall weather has become so cold in Colorado.
Steve Goddard and A Arrak. A cursory look at all years of 80o North temp data from DMI Link here WUWT) shows no trend, although this year 2010 so far, looks pretty “normal” (to me anyway). Still trying to determine if AMSU temp data is due to ONE big hot spot somewhere because COLA shows land temps cooling/below anomaly nearly everywhere on the globe (idem last month BTW), Maybe sea temps are rising dramatically?
It’s a classic KGB-type double misdirection aimed at confusing the world into inaction on CO2 thereby continuing global warming and resulting in achiveing their 5 year plan of greater agriculture and warm beaches in Siberia. “Nyet?”
I don’t believe there are any issues with agricultural food production right now because of the increase in global CO2 levels. I have seen estimates that indicate the production of food could increase by an average of 20% per acre over the next 50 years. If the earth cools down we may need that extra capacity just to feed the citizens of this planet. If the earth warms up,we should be looking at very reasonable for prices into the foreseeable future. Our biggest problem is the globalists that want to control the agenda both politically and economically of this planet. Fortunately the Internet is here to help keep them honest. Monsters like Hitler Stalin and Mao can no longer control the information agenda the way they did 50 or 60 years ago.
I saw that story yesterday. Am I wrong in thinking that fungi do better in cooler wetter conditions, not warmer?
MartinGAtkins (15:24:58)
The http://www.upi.com article has:- An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998
As you can see they are not the same thing. I’m not sure what the original source is but the German version is accurate using UAH data and the English version is very wrong.
Yes, you’re right, there’s nothing at all about a cold snap in the German
version (12 years from 1998 to now would constitute a rather slow snap…).
Odder still is navigating to the English version of the Russian site and picking up the article there, which is similar (but not completely like) the UPI article, including the snap. I wonder what was actually said by
Pokrovsky…maybe I missed that (like I did the original UPI article, sorry about that Anthony…kind of late here)….over at scienceblogs.com there are reports of the Google translator providing NSFW translations of Icelandic volcano names, locations, etc. (at least these translations weren’t *that* bad…).
-Jeff (back to lurk mode before I goof up again….)
The Russians have been saying for years that their ground stations in Siberia are getting progressively colder, particularly since 1998. AGW have dealt with this by ignoring the data the Russians provide. But the Russians have huge ground data sources, but very limited sea resources.
I’ve been wondering about the trolls too. Its not nearly as much fun to post sarcastic remarks without them providing all the material to be sarcastic about. I am frankly, concerned, they are my source of inspiration after all. Did they volunteer to help feed the starving polar bears and were consumed by their task? Did they become so angered by the last few reports of fraud that they flew into a rage and spontaneously combusted? Have they disengaged from the battle of wits because they have run out of ammunition? Meaning they are witless?
I do note there was a nasty broadside launched in regard to the proper use of it’s or its. I solemnly resolve, having no idea at all which to use when, though I write it down several times and lost the note every time, that going forward I shall replace both with itz.
The Russians are fooling us. They want to convince us global cooling is happening so we start moving south and they can grab the arctic for themselves. They, at least have their wits about them.
Who said if the Arctic ice melts that polar bears can’t adapt? Here are some rock climbing polar bears!!! Maybe this is how they survived previous warm periods.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8622000/8622244.stm
As long as Hansen et al are in charge of the temp. record, we will never see temps going down. just look at what he did to the ‘cooling’ trend in the 50-70’s!!
Steven Goddard said:
I’ve taken to playing indoors because the spring/fall weather has become so cold in Colorado.
——–
Yep, been there and done that in Colorado. My kids are a bit older now and off to College, but springtimes are always quite unpredictable here. April is the 3rd snowiest month for Denver, and I always wondered why they made the soccer season start in March (the snowiest month for Denver). What are they thinking?
After all the cancelled games, we always ended up playing 2 make-up games the same day, and by the second half of the second game, the kids were barely walking up and down the field!
How many of you are aware the Russians maintain a base at the North Pole?
Weather now?
“April 18, 2010
Coordinates: N 89° 11′ and E 83° 06′.
Temperature -17°С. A wind northeast, 5 m/s. Atmospheric pressure of 760 mm hg”
Won’t find it headlined on the western ‘web.
“The construction of the sauna was completed to everyone’s joy and a celebratory “bath” took place in the evening.”
So much for silly people dragging sleds to the pole… and missing. Now there is a reason, frozen bedraggled fool crawls up to the warm Russian base, with helicopter, jet transports and so on. Can’t do that, pains the ego, call in western support, angst, in great peril plucked from the jaws of certain death.
Lets rub in the stupidity…
“Today, early in the morning, at 5 am to be precise, a group of Russian tourists arrived at Barneo camp.” dated a few days ago.
First, what they fly in using
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-74
Kind of says little.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barneo
http://www.barneo.ru
Anthony: I read the Russian article in its German form before I read pgosselin’s translation. In my opinion, he did a very accurate translation.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/another-polar-rescue-must-send/story-e6frfhqf-1225856131380
Maybe those Ruskies know a thing or two about the Arctic after all. Maybe Big Al was just spouting shyte …
George E. Smith (16:27:55) :
Very good!
That was a great article, Richard. Thanks for the link.
In response to the quote, “They were experiencing temperatures [in the Arctic] that weren’t expected with global warming,” the only thing that can be said is that, once more, reality went up against the model and reality won. Hands down. Let’s hope their experience raised their “awareness” of the issue to such an extent that they realize, and the people who read their story realize, they might not actually have all the answers.
“RIA Novosti quoted Pokrovsky as saying. “Politicians who placed their bets on global warming may lose the pot,” Pokrovsky said.
======
Rule 1 in forecasting: Never predict a turning point. You very likely will be wrong.
Pokrovsky is staking his reputation on a long-shot.
“Pokrovsky is staking his reputation on a long-shot.”
That’s exactly what the IPCC did, and what Phil Jones did, and what Michael Mann did, and what Wei-Chyung Wang did, and what Gavin Schmidt did, and what the GCM programmers did, etc.
That’s why all their reputations have been destroyed. They are now looked upon as self-serving, rent seeking charlatans, without the saving graces of Elmer Gantry — who at least made it rain in the end.
Smokey (20:10:46) :
“Pokrovsky is staking his reputation on a long-shot.”
That’s exactly what the IPCC did, and what Phil Jones did, and what Michael Mann did, and what Wei-Chyung Wang did, and what Gavin Schmidt did, and what the GCM programmers did, etc.
That’s why all their reputations have been destroyed. They are now looked upon as self-serving, rent seeking charlatans, without the saving graces of Elmer Gantry — who at least made it rain in the end.
=======
Smokey, you and I are in complete disagreement.
“Smokey, you and I are in complete disagreement.”
I have patience. I’m willing to wait while you get up to speed.
Smokey (21:12:54) :
“Smokey, you and I are in complete disagreement.”
I have patience. I’m willing to wait while you get up to speed.
======
You just want to see my post get snipped, and I’m not falling for it.
Have a nice weekend.
Pascvaks – no need to exchange dollars for pesos if you want to move to a warmer climate : both Panama and Ecuador use the American dollar as their national currency. the cost of living is lower in both those places and you won’t freeze your butt if we have a new Little Ice Age.
Wren (20:00:53) :
Pokrovsky is staking his reputation on a long-shot.>>
When you make predictions for no apparent reason itz a long shot. When you make up evidence to support your predictions itz fraud.
When you take proper measurements, interpret them in proper context, provide logical explanations of the processes and provide the conclusions that result from them, that’s called science. If new evidence suggests that the original interpretation is innacurate, the conclusions are adjusted accordingly, and that’s called scientific process. Allow me the following example.
Having observed the behaviour and expressed thought patterns of Wren in the past, it is my prediction that Wren will either not respond to my comment, or will respond that the actions of Briffa, Jones, Mann et al are in keeping with the scientific process described while those of Pokrovsky are not.
I will monitor this thread to determine if the evidence gathered and the conclusions arrived at need to be modified.
A paper from this same scientists on how North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) effects precipitation distribution, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO).
http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1537319.1537571
Oleg Pokrovsky has commented here at WattsUpWithThat. Scroll down to near bottom at this post:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/01/25/warming-trend-pdo-and-solar-correlate-better-than-co2/
oleg pokrovsky (06:17:13) :
Dear Colleague,
Would you, please, to send me e-mail to contact
to you in more flexible way.
In fact, I worked with the same data, but use
more comprehensive stat.techniques.
Best regards,
Oleg Pokrovsky
@ Smokey (21:12:54) :
How much patience does it take to wait until a block of granite weathers and wears down? Although with enough periods of freezing, getting ever colder, it might just fall to pieces someday.
I thought this was pretty accessible for us non scientists:
http://sea-technology.com/features/2009/0909/SST_impacts_ice.html
Also found him on Facebook 🙂
http://www.facebook.com/oleg.pokrovsky
Bob,
Thanks.
Mine is not a complete translation – but a summary translation.
I did it myself. No Google translator, which you can forget.
I doublechecked mine – and it is accurate.
The UPI version I feel may have been sanitized and “modified” for cllimate correctness.
I was baffled for a long time too, until I remembered two words: NEVER POSSESSIVE! Thus, “its umbrella” (possessive) is “never” apostrophized.
Russ Blake (12:58:11) :
Several comments:
1. Arctic temperatures coming down; CO2 levels increasing. It’s all caused by Polar SUVs.
Twas the BBC that did it
http://www.bbc.co.uk/topgear/videos/index.shtml?cat=big_races&id=63
H.R. (12:43:29) : If anybody knows cold, it’s the Russians.
As best I know, the Russians don’t have a dog in the AGW fight,
Oh, but they do… a very big dog. You see, if they don’t “get it right” they die.
To survive a very bad Russian Winter you must prepare. You don’t just do it AFTER marching in (as everyone from Napoleon to Germany learned, repeatedly, the hard way, … why can’t people just read a little and find some new mistakes to make? 8-}
So Russia needs to “get it right”. Very right. They need to buy up any excess grain, perhaps even 2 years in advance. They need to build oil storage facilities and maybe drill more wells. They need to make sure contracts with the UK and Ukraine let them get first dibs on natural gas they ship. And they need to “underground” more of their key cities (many already have large underground facilities, so this is a matter of incremental degree, not kind.) Etc. etc. and so on.
Anyone who’s lived long in very cold places knows that you either prepare, or you die. And as folks who have lived a while in warm places know, you can lay around and do nothing and it’s still OK… Dad was from a very cold place and taught me about preparing. He also moved to California so the lessons were largely wasted on me 😉
An example: In California, you stress over 3 or 4 growing seasons. In very cold places you stress over 60 or 80 days of growing season and can you get the ONE crop in before the cold takes it? So in California if you “blow it” on one crop, well, plough it under and reseed. In Russia, you get to wait through a long frozen winter with little to eat and hope next year is better. BIG difference.
Give me a choice between a scientist studying cold and climate in Moscow vs one in North Carolina ( or worse, California) and I’ll trust the Moscow guy first. He’s got a lot more on the line.
Sidebar: Very nice sunny day today in California. First one in quite a while. Reminded me what March is supposed to be like… Oh, wait, its April …
In prior years I’ve had tomatoes in the ground for 2 weeks by now. This year I’ve been watching a cold rain… In prior years I’ve had sunburns and shorts for a week at least. This year it’s hot tea and jackets. Now is much more like the 1950-1980 period. It’s been a good 30 years since it’s been like this. It will be a good 30 years before it changes back.
The Russians have it right.
It must be cold
“Another polar rescue must send chills down spines of alarmists”
It is the Arctic after all
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/another-polar-rescue-must-send/story-e6frfhqf-1225856131380
What did these expeditions prove?????????????????????????????????????????????
2007 – Ann Bancroft and Liv Arnesen – “They were experiencing temperatures that weren’t expected with global warming.”
2008 – Lewis Gordon Pugh – Planned to kayak 1200km to the North Pole to raise awareness of how global warming. No such luck, had to pull out, still 1000km from the finish, when a great barrier of sea ice blocked his route.
2009 – Catlin Arctic Survey – had to be flown out mid-stunt, after battling brutal sub-zero weather conditions that gave the team’s photographer frostbite.
2010 – Tom Smitheringale – He wanted to see the North Pole while it was still there. Rescued by Canadian soldiers after falling through the ice sheet.”(I) came very close to the grave,” he said, on being flown out.
jt (16:09:32) : Has anyone run a simulation of previous, extended cold periods against current food production to determine just how bad things might get?
Simulations are not very useful. Especially for this. Why? Changed varieties and change practices makes prior experience non-predictive.
Also, as others have pointed out, the added growth from CO2 enrichment offsets about 20%. Yes, that high. But there is more… CO2 enrichment looks to also enhance stress response for things like drought and perhaps cold. It’s a very virtuous circle. Also as it gets colder, places too hot to farm become viable. Bigger issues is finding enough fresh water.
(Oh, and sidebar on “its” “it’s”: I just remember to make the contraction of “it is” with an apostrophe, and “other stuff” is the other one… )
bikermailman (17:14:12) : I saw that story yesterday. Am I wrong in thinking that fungi do better in cooler wetter conditions, not warmer?
Depends entirely on the individual fungus. Some like it warm and wet (think about shoes, socks, toes…) while other like it cooler or dryer. Many like warm tropical, though.
“E.M.Smith (03:59:58) :”
Boy! Do you ever have it right or what! Well said!
Ever since I got into this AGW debate (Far too many years than I care to count anymore) I have suggested to AGW supporters to listen to what the Russians are saying. They are suggesting that Al Gore, his “science” and his followers, including the UN and almost all western gubmints, are so very wrong.
The German war machine found that out in 1941. Have we leanrt anything since then?
When looking for cycles, it would easy to suggest that we are due some more years of the warm phase of the AO/NAO; http://jisao.washington.edu/ao/
It is not a well defined cycle, and individual years can be dramatically opposite to the general phase at the time. Years with negative AO values, are mostly the colder winters for Europe/N.America etc.
There are a also distinct lack of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings with positive AO values.
Solar based forecasts can map a scenario for each winter, and so make forecasts based on the (one size fits all!) quasi 60/90yr cycle completely redundant.
pgosselin (13:10:44) :
Also at the Russian site is http://de.rian.ru/science/20100421/126005955.html
which tells of the growth in ice in Antarctica due to the depletion in ozone cooling the upper atmosphere, also promoting the circum-polar current; contributing to the breaking up of the Larsen ice shelf glacier.
I don’t agree. The increase in convection means less heat flux from sub-arctic areas and therefore a reduction in temperatures. A depletion of ozone, which (IIRC) is a “greenhouse” gas should notionally result in less radiation to space from there, resulting in a warmer upper atmosphere, not a colder one.
The Russian researcher mentions that British modellers, using meteorological records, had worked out that the ozone hole drove the increase in Antarctic ice volume.
“Scientists who believe the climate is warming may have been misled by data from U.S. meteorological stations”
A new Cold War?
Climatologists like Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann and Phil Jones are closer to social engineers than true engineers.
A real engineer is practical, and makes things work, while a social engineer tends toward fuzzy thinking to support their point of view. And social engineers are, deep down, all big government types; Dr Ravetz comes to mind.
Here is a good account of the differences: click [source]
***
[And for E.M. Smith (04:29:33) and others, here’s a handy guide to apostrophe use: click]
R. Gates (17:51:06) :
Yet another Saturday of cancelled soccer due to cold, snow, wind and rain along the Front Range of Colorado. This spring is starting to look more and more like the non-spring of 1995, when it stayed cold and wet until after July 4.
Here are some details: 2 quotes from the article:
Seit etwa 1998 kühle das Klima ab. „Es wird natürlich keine Eiszeit geben, doch die Temperaturen werden auf den Stand des kalten Jahrzehnts von 1950 bis 1960 fallen“, sagte Pokrowski
….
„Jetzt treten alle Komponenten des Klimasystems in eine negative Phase ein.“ Die Abkühlung werde in 15 Jahren ihren Höhepunkt erreichen, sagte der Forscher. Politiker, die auf eine globale Klimaerwärmung bauen, hätten auf das falsche Pferd gesetzt.
So the journalist reports what Pokrowski said, at times directly quoting him:
Since about 1998 the climate is cooling. “Of course there won’t be an ice age, but the temperatures will fall to the level of the cold decennium of 1950 until 1960”, said Pokrowski.
and:
“Now all the components of the climate system enter a negative fase.” The cooling will reach its peak in 15 yrs, said the researcher. Politicians, who expect global warming, have put their money on the wrong horse.
Nowhere does it say:
‘An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998 could last for years, freezing the northern marine passage and making it impassable.’
And the expression is ‘putting your money on the wrong horse’, not ‘losing the pot’.
To be precise:
He does say that the northern marine passage will freeze and will only be passable with icebreakers:
„Die Nordostpassage wird einfrieren und nur mit Eisbrechern passierbar sein“, sagte Pokrowski.
He says nothing about ‘an Arctic cold snap that began in 1998’.
That must be a bad translation of: Seit etwa 1998 kühle das Klima ab.
Which I translate as: Since about 1998 the climate is cooling.
“Jim Barker (14:16:20) :
OT, but I do not seem to be able to open the Tips and Notes part of the website. Internet Explorer crashes each time I click on it. Any ideas?
REPLY: More memory, Firefox”
I have no trouble opening it with IE 6.0 running on this 500 MHZ AMD K6 processor with only 384 mb of memory that is almost as old as 8 track tapes.
Russian translation to English………
http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100423/158714403.html
I note that the late April the AMSR-E Arctic Region sea-ice extent now seems to be at an all time high (since April 2003) for this time of year. It appears to be about 200 x10^3 sq km higher than last year’s record high value for this period.
stevengoddard (06:02:52) :
R. Gates (17:51:06) :
Yet another Saturday of cancelled soccer due to cold, snow, wind and rain along the Front Range of Colorado. This spring is starting to look more and more like the non-spring of 1995, when it stayed cold and wet until after July 4.
————–
And interestingly enough, that year was near the bottom of a solar minimum. But as we natives say about the weather here in Colorado…”give it a day and it will change…”
bikermailman (17:14:12) : I saw that story yesterday. Am I wrong in thinking that fungi do better in cooler wetter conditions, not warmer?
E.M.Smith (04:29:33) :Depends entirely on the individual fungus. Some like it warm and wet (think about shoes, socks, toes…) while other like it cooler or dryer. Many like warm tropical, though.
Mildews like cool and wet. Most of the agronomically significant fungi (Phytoferans, Fusariums, late-early blights, smuts, etc.) need nighttime temps above 70 F. to develop. Many can develop initial growth external to the plant with dew only (rusts especially). Once inoculated, if sufficient moisture is available for the plant to survive, the fungi will thrive.
I live in the Blue Mountains of NE Oregon. Wife and I went to various yard sales
today in the area of LaGrande. Cold, nasty, wet. Right now, it is 45F. Even with
the decline of El Nino , it is not warm here. We get the cold PDO shift first.
Climate here isn’t much different than, say the West slope of the Rockies..
If the Icelandic volcanic situation continues to spew ash for a couple of years, as it has in the past, get ready for some additional cooling. Of course we know from previous articles that this too is due to AGW and reduced pressure on the surface above the vent due to ice melt. These warmistas always have their bases covered. I am sure that famine is better than a warmer climate in their book at any rate as it will reduce the pesky human population which is causing all these problems.
There is a fungus among us!! *ahem* As perhaps one of the only infectious disease specialists who regularly posts, let me give you my thoughts:
a) Lethal fungal infections are far from new & unique….when news stories like this break out, it is usually due to an increase of cases caused by mans’ intrusion into a new ecosystem. More susceptible hosts = more cases of disease, a linear relationship with an environmental pathogen like this one.
According to the US Centers for Disease Control:
http://www.cdc.gov/EID/content/15/8/pdfs/1185.pdf
C. gattii disease affects immunocompromised
and immunocompetent persons, causing substantial illness
and death.
———–
This was exactly what I was expecting to find (I didn’t recognize C. gatti at first, they changed the damn name on me!).
I’m willing to bet that the most fulminant/lethal infections were in immune compromised (HIV positive, immune-suppressed transplant patients, even pregnant women) who intruded into this ecosystem.
Due to global warming? Hah! Not likely. I’ve seen these stories go around for years, like the very deadly Hanta virus (spread by mouse droppings), “black death plague” in the US west (endemic amongst prairie dogs) and monkey pox in Gambian rats at exotic pet shows.
Man sticks his nose where he hasn’t, and surprise, there are always things that want to chomp onto it. Watch this story wither & die soon.
Douglas, we too are making like ground squirrels (which we intended to shoot today) and staying in our den. It is colder than a witch’s tit and snowing on the Wallowa slopes. This weather is what we usually get during Spring break. It looks like I won’t be opening up pastures for cows for another few weeks. I usually have pasture renters by the first week of May. This puts a mighty strain on their hay. I would imagine my ranchers are running out and are looking for grass. My lower valley pastures aren’t ready yet, and certainly the pastures and range in the hills are still waiting for that warm night to even start growing. Gonna be a late season for insects too. Which will bring down the bat population once again.
The spring it finally warms up early we will be inundated with insects and no bats to eat em all up.
CRS, Dr.P.H. (11:01:43) :
My cousin died of that about 15 years ago in Seattle (she lived in Seward, Ak and had to go their for treatment) after they had treated the Leukemia. She fit the description to a T. The doctor there said that everybody has this fungus but she just had no defenses against it. Ran out of bullets.
Should be there in lieu of their. Forgive me. Spastic moment.
Shaun (07:23:23) :
Russian translation to English………
http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100423/158714403.html
….
I pointed that out in my post above. I feel like saying “will the real statement from Pokrowski please stand up”.
Pgosselin has it spot on, as well as Robin Kool, in terms of translating the
German to English. Google is off on another planet, as it were.
It appears that UPI that UPI is leaving bits out as pgosselin said, either
out of convenience, garbage translations (translators, whatever), or being, er, less than objective in their point of view (hiding a decline, etc.).
Again, this points to the need to find the original statement (better yet,
track down Pokrowski and get some input from him, could be quite
informative), as well as the need to not trust machine translations of
human speech. They’re good (and helpful), but not perfect.
As far as what the journalist/reporter/writer/opinion leader/etc.
meant with cold snap as opposed to 12-year gradual cooling trend,
the old saying “No news is good news; good news is no news” may apply.
Cold snap sounds a bit more interesting, even though it’s wrong…
Time to find out the truth – anyone here know Pokrowski or anyone
at that conference?
-Jeff
OT
Firefox is much better than IE, unless the coding was quite specific in using IE specs…
You may want to ‘Opera’ for a small fast and adaptable browser.
Also, if you have an old K6 you may want to try UBUNTU for your browser box.
I remember, 1999,I think, Russian scientist, much to the mirth of the establishment, said the sun is entering a quiet time and it will get cold. He is a brave man, a real credit to science and despite giving club gore a stitch in their sides from laughing he could now be having the last laugh (except as he looks like he knows what he is doing and is not politically correct he will see the horror of the path being taken, knowing soviet history he must find the AGW crowd terrifying)
Steve in SC (12:15:19) :
CRS, Dr.P.H. (11:01:43) :
My cousin died of that about 15 years ago in Seattle (she lived in Seward, Ak and had to go their for treatment) after they had treated the Leukemia. She fit the description to a T. The doctor there said that everybody has this fungus but she just had no defenses against it. Ran out of bullets.
——-
REPLY: Steve, I am so sorry to hear that! The modern immunosuppressive therapies allow for some real medical miracles, but unfortunately, we who partake of these become “Guinea pigs”. Opportunistic infections are a huge problem in these patients, and fungi are especially bad because there are so few effective drugs to fight them off.
I get quite furious with the mainstream medical/public health establishment and the media when they jump the gun on stories like these without getting the fact straight!
Of course, with all this global warming going on, it’s just a matter of time….
Jeff (16:21:53) :
[Snip]
Again, this points to the need to find the original statement (better yet,
track down Pokrowski and get some input from him, could be quite
informative), as well as the need to not trust machine translations of
human speech. They’re good (and helpful), but not perfect.
As far as what the journalist/reporter/writer/opinion leader/etc.
meant with cold snap as opposed to 12-year gradual cooling trend, the old saying “No news is good news; good news is no news” may apply. Cold snap sounds a bit more interesting, even though it’s wrong…
“Cold snap” or “cooling trend” since 1998 – they’re both wrong.
John Galt (13:42:22) :
With better economic times, will concern for climate change rebound? Will people see Cap And Trade as more affordable and therefore less objectionable when jobs recover? Or has skepticism really taken hold?
_______________________________________________________________________________
I just did a street festival yesterday here in the USA. I tested that question by talking to customers on a more neutral topic, the FED. Because of the bad economic times people are really paying attention to the Federal Reserve, fractional banking and realizing the “banking Crisis” was one big scam to screw the taxpayer. No matter what their political leaning, John and Jane Doe do not like to find out their hard earned cash just got taken by the banks to replace bad management of the banking industries “fairy dust” money.
Once the blinkers are off Congress is losing the peoples blind faith that the laws passed are in the peoples best interest and not in the interest of the wealthy. Once lost you can not put that genie back in the bottle. The health care law and the Congressmen’s handling of “town hall meetings” helped reinforce peoples distrust in the US Congress. Unfortunately both political parties are funded by the wealthy who want Cap and Trade.
blackswhitewash.com (14:51:07) :
The alternative translation would suggest someone has their wires crossed. Only a nut or a mistranslation would claim the arctic has been in a ten year cold snap.
________________________________________________________________________________
This is a RUSSIAN article.
Russian IEA claims CRU tampered with climate data – cherrypicked warmest stations:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/16/russian-iea-claims-cru-tampered-with-climate-data-cherrypicked-warmest-stations/
and GISS, NOAA, GHCN and the odd Russian temperature anomaly – “It’s all pipes!”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/15/giss-noaa-ghcn-and-the-odd-russian-temperature-anomaly-its-all-pipes/
Yes there was warming from the 1970’s until now, however the peak has been reached and the temperatures are plateaued/starting to head down again. (Even the CRU e-mails acknowledge that point) That climate is cyclical is well known by all but the most naive, that is why “Global Warming” was replaced by “Climate Change” and there is a frantic push to get the laws passed and the treaty signed.
Lon Hocker (14:52:28) :
While you’re waiting, send Anthony a few bucks to help him with this effort, and please also send money to the candidates that you support.
______________________________________________________________________________
If you are like me trying to make ends meet and keep the bank from foreclosing, volunteer your time to the candidates that you support. Money is not the only thing that is needed. As I stated in an earlier post, I talk to people about banking and the Federal Reserve to get them to start thinking and questioning the Status Quo.
For instance “The Grace Commission report notes that 100% of personal income tax goes to pay interest on the national debt, the lion’s share of which goes to the banking cartel that we know as the Federal Reserve.” http://www.bloggernews.net/17032
The US government originally had the right to coin money and they gave that right to the banks in 1913. The banks slowly twisted the word “coin” (out of silver and gold) until they now can print fiat (worthless) money at will and exchange it for your wealth (labor, land, services and products). Originally the banks were not allowed to print more than a specific percentage of fiat money in relation to money from their depositors. Now the reserve (percentage) is effectively ZERO. That is why the USA no linger has silver certificates, or gold and silver coins only Federal Reserve Bank notes, notes based on nothing.
For a good readable history see:
A PRIMER ON MONEY: by US House Committee on Banking and Currency
http://famguardian.org/Subjects/MoneyBanking/Money/patman-primer-on-money.pdf
John Galt II (16:45:59)
One you didn’t mention was Google Chrome, I use it and find it efficient and robust (oops I forgot – not supposed to use that R word any more!)
Arno Arrak (16:07:40)
Ocean currents must indeed surely be more important than air temps in determining Arctic ice amount and possible Arctic climate.
For me there seems to be one very important piece of evidence suggesting an ocean current scenario for control of Arctic ice amout. (While I did oceanography at University a couple of decades back I’m not currently in the field and thus probably naive to it. However – here is my penny’s-worth.) A post last August here showed a direct correlation between Barents sea temps (100-150m) and the AMO. This showed a similar rise in sea temperature from 1900 till about mid-century, then a fall till about 1970 and a following rise up to 2000. The water temperature oscillation was by up to 4C and closely correllated with the AMO.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/08/new-paper-barents-sea-temperature-correlated-to-the-amo-as-much-as-4%C2%B0c/#more-11592
You mention a change in ocean currents involving the North Atlantic Drift (NAD) resulting in increased warm water transport to the Arctic. The Barents and Arctic can be considered to be at the “tail end” of the NAD. This was confirmed when Western Environmentalists, showing their usual anti-Russian bias, studied radioactive nuclear cycle derived isotopes in the Barents in the 90s hoping to implicate leaking Russian nuclear reactors. Instead the isotope mix they found was dominated by discharge from Sellafield in Cumbria, UK. An own goal politically, but a nice oceanographic tracer experiment showing water movement from the Irish sea to the Barents, i.e. the NAD.
The 4C fluctuation of 100-150m Barents seawater is far too large to be caused by air temps, it would appear much more likely that the dominant (only?) supply of warmer water to the Barents, the NAD, oscillates in strength in correlation with the AMO. In fact the closeness of this correlation suggests that this NAD oscillation could be in fact a major part of what the AMO is.
The time periods you describe for warm water supply to the Arctic (1900 to mid-century, pause till 1970 then resumption) also match the AMO and the Barents sea sub-surface temperature oscillation. We seem to be talking about the same thing.
I agree with above posters that the views of Russian scientists with permanent research stations at the North pole (Tim Channon (18:13:43) and obvious reasons for deep understanding of cold weather (E.M Smith) cannot lightly be dismissed.
Any bets on when JAXA 2010 will fall below the curve?
@wws (12:51:03) :
“What irony! The Russians have embraced empirical scientific standards, while our elites have embraced the scientific standards of Lysenko!”
… fact is, they were embracing empirical scientific standards even during Lysenko’s time: that fellow never claimed his insights applied to animal life, only to plants, and until 1953 there was no empirical proof that the mechanisms for heredity involved, or how they did it, the blurry colored blob found in all cells. Lysenkoism was opposing Eugenism as a particular brand of emphasis on heredity and the associated practices, not all theories of heredity. When ADN was discovered, the Soviets promptly dropped Lysenkoism.
Western elites have embraced the practices of Eugenism: stirring alarm (yellow threat, degeneration etc.) and imposing policies based on very incomplete data (sterilization of “degenerates” etc.).
Original: http://rian.ru/arctic_news/20100423/225845370.html
(in russian)
Dear Colleagues,
Thank you for discussion of my conclusions presented at recent IPY conference
occurred in AARI (St.Petersburg, Russia).
My vision of future climate is based on comprehensive analysis of climate index series analysis, which permits to reveal fundamental quasi-periodical oscillations in most components of climate system:
-Solar activity
-SST of ocean (AMO and PDO)
-Surface air temperature
– Surface irradiance
-Precipitations
-Ice extent in Russian Arctic Seas
I found that that those are in strong coherence when inter-annual climate noise was removed in each of them
My motivation might be illustrated by a set of figures presented at recent Arctic Frontiers Conference (Tromso, Norway)
http://www.arctic-frontiers.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=242&Itemid=155
Tim Channon (18:13:43) :
How many of you are aware the Russians maintain a base at the North Pole?
Weather now?
“April 18, 2010
Coordinates: N 89° 11′ and E 83° 06′.
Temperature -17°С. A wind northeast, 5 m/s. Atmospheric pressure of 760 mm hg”
Won’t find it headlined on the western ‘web.
On the contrary it’s the destination for all those ski trips to the Pole at this time of year which are certainly on the British websites at this time of year. It’s there for about a month at this time of year, packed up yesterday.
http://www.humanedgetech.com/expedition/npchallenge/index.php?dispid=11&view=0
Two days before you posted it looked like this:
http://www.explorersweb.com/polar/news.php?id=19271
Richard Sharpe (17:31:16) :
Any bets on when JAXA 2010 will fall below the curve?
What curve?
The ice is 570,000 below the 1979 to 2000 mean.
Last time it touched that line was 9th Sep 2001 and that was a noise wiggle.
This is based on work here with daily data where I have joined the Nasa Stereo and IJIS/JAXA daily datasets. This allowed the mean to be deduced. At the moment this is the best I can do.
If it is going to return to mean it won’t be anytime soon but it looks likely eventually. Trying to put a date on it, should cross the mean line 2012, likely not next year.
I describe the situation as particularly uncertain and the next year is critical, by then it ought to be much clearer.