You gotta love it when the Earth gives back the love, especially today.
Those who have been following NSIDC and JAXA sea ice plots have noted that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the “normal” line on some datasets. Today the Earth gave back more for us.
As of today, JAXA shows that we have more ice than any time on this date for the past 8 years of Aqua satellite measurement for this AMSRE dataset. Yes, it isn’t much, but if this were September, and the sea ice minimum was down by this much compared to all other years, you can bet your sweet bippy we’d see it screamed in news headlines worldwide.
Of course some will argue that it “doesn’t matter” in the context of trend, or that it’s just a “weather” blip. Let us remind our friends of such blips the next time a heat wave or a storm is cited as proof of global warming.
What can be said about the short term trend in Arctic sea ice is that for the past two years, it has recovered from the historic low of 2007. It recovered in 2008, and more in 2009. If today’s Earth Day gift is any indication, it appears that it is on track now for a third year of recovery in 2010 as we’ve been saying at WUWT since fall of 2009.
I’d show NSIDC’s current Arctic Sea Ice graph also, but their website was down earlier today, and the current sea ice graph is not updated. But Steve Goddard has made some comparison overlays that are interesting.
He writes via email:
NSIDC’s web site is down today, but I overlaid DMI on top of the NSIDC graph and it should have hit the mean line today. Same story for JAXA. Images are below.
DMI uses 30% concentration, so their scale is lower than NSIDC and JAXA at 15%. I shifted the DMI data upwards and stretched vertically to visually match the NISDC data.
The second image is JAXA, DMI and NSIDC together. JAXA also needed to be shifted vertically as they apparently use a different algorithm for calculating extent than NSIDC. All three track each other fairly closely during the spring, DMI diverges from the others during the fall freeze up – probably because of the higher concentration requirements.
Blue is NSIDC. Green is JAXA. Black is DMI. The thick black line is the NSIDC mean. The dashed line is the 2007 historic low.
ADDED: Here is a wider view that shows that the three time series match closely over the interval of the NSIDC graph
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Happy Earth Day everybody!
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I whold have mentioned OT but relevant for WUWT
Sorry. I do not believe this without a tree ring to confirm it.
As long as the earth is handing out presents, guess I’ll buy it a cake….topped with a lot of “icing.”
*ducks*
Happy Earth Day!
Mr. Bastardi is a bit puzzled about the Ice:
“So all this ice is surprising because THERE SHOULD BE LESS, NOT MORE, using natural drivers as the prime reason for the expansion and contraction of the northern ice sheets”
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather
Mr. Bastardi is allways a good read – Ciao!
” Mike Haseler (11:16:17) :
[…]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/22/climate-change-libel-action-canada-national-post”
“Weaver is suing for libel three writers at the newspaper, as well as the newspaper as a whole and several, as-yet unknown, posters on the paper’s online comment section.”
Warmists start to sue blog commenters. Gloves are off.
It’s now possible to bet on whether this year’s minimum arctic ice extent will be greater than last years. The rules are given here, with a link to the bet:
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/4474.page
Antarctic Sea Ice Area and Extent is also doing its part to celebrate Earth Day…
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
How long before we are told that the increase in Arctic ice _proves_ anthropogenic global warming and it was forecast in the AGW models?
Great comments, today is definitely a great day
I posted this on a different thread, but might be of interest here:
From IJIS http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm:
“The black dot seen at the North Pole is an area lacking data where AMSR-E cannot observe the Earth’s surface… Please note that this area is also counted as sea-ice cover in our estimation of sea-ice extent. We may change the policy (i.e., filling the gap with full coverage of sea ice) in the near future due to the recent drastic reduction of Arctic sea ice. We will announce this if it is implemented.”
I just noticed this comment and am not sure if it’s a recent change or not. Suspicious if it is.
Question: How was the “normal” line established? and, who established the line?
Ben
Scott Covert (10:58:56) : “This is a non-issue and no victory but I understand why you have posted it.”
I think we could guarantee that it would be a ‘huge’ issue and a ‘victory’ if the ice was anywhere near a nine-year low. Such news would be heralded by the MSM.
This is terrible! How can we convince people that global warming is real when the stupid environment won’t cooperate??
Mike Haseler (11:16:17) :
There isn’t any way he can win this suit, the models simply aren’t provable and therefore the claims are hearsay and thus accurate.
He must be out of his mind or likes throwing away money.
They are clearly hiding a decline.
LOL – make that “and thus inaccurate.”
So there has been a “regression to the mean value”. Over the long run, it is the number of extremes and the number of regressions that count.
So this proves squat, and these data tells us nothing.
Scott (11:16:03) :
“that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the ‘normal’ line”
Seems like an oxymoron to me…extraordinary by being normal? I guess Katrina et al were extraordinary/normal storms, so this fits in with typical climate commentary. Of course, avid warmists probably do consider it extraordinary given that the Arctic is supposed to be ice-free here in 3+ years.
One thing that might be extraordinary in regards to this is the lateness of the Arctic ice peak.
To be accurate about it Arctic sea ice extent is high compared with the last 9 years. The sea ice area is not nor was its maximum late. Taken together these facts indicate spreading of the sea ice more than normal. I consider that interesting, similar to what happened in summer 07.
Alarmists tell us that the sea is rising because of the melting polar ice, so using their “science” shouldn’t sea levels be declining?
Thats good news, I guess, at leas for the people who worry alot abot polar bears, rising sea etc. If it wasnt for the internet and blogs like this excellent blog, I would never have known, this is truly a democrcy revolution, Al Gore’s internet invention.
Swedish media refuses to publish storys like this, pubclic service media, (swedish bbc)-SVT is on a huge drive for climate alarmism, they are building up for something, I do not know what.
http://svt.se/2.108068/1.1955993/forkrossande_majoritet_enig_om_klimatforandringarna
My translation “Devastating majority in agreement of Climate change.
Over 97 of swedish scientists working in the field of climate research agree that man is proven to be responsible for the global warming.”
This according to a poll they made that is so ridiculous that I am ashamed to describe it. It also says 90% has faith in the IPCC.
http://svt.se/2.108068/1.1966830/marginellt_vetenskapligt_stod_for_klimatskeptiker?lid=puff_1966993&lpos=lasmer
Then they make another “study”. “Scientific support of climate scepticism is poor”.
Only five (5) of 8000 climate research related articles, peer reviewed 2009-2010 support scepticism of man causing the global warming. They have contacted an expert, Naomi Oreskes who helped them analyse their findings.
–
The troublesome thing here is that the SVT is very prestisious and well regarded for its neutrality in (other) political agendas and reports like this, in national newscasts, really make an impact on people who do not actively seek information elsewhere.
–
Sorry didnt mean to start ranting about it, bu I want you guys in other countries to look out, because the conspiracyguy in me is telling me something is staged.
Why this massiva campaigne?
–
Other than that, the weather is nice, bit cold but beatiful sunshine.
“As of today, JAXA shows that we have more ice than any time on this date for the past 9 years of Aqua satellite measurement for this AMSRE dataset. Yes, it isn’t much, but if this were September, and the sea ice minimum was down by this much compared to all other years, you can bet your sweet bippy we’d see it screamed in news headlines worldwide.”
——
Anthony, I’ve been comparing the daily numbers to 2003 since your post [Visualizing Changes …] on April 12th using the downloadable data, and there has been more ice than anytime in the last 9 years since that date (2008 doesn’t beat 2003 in that time period). The largest difference in that time period was about 291k sq km. Today’s is about 280k sq km.
REPLY:I’m not surprised, it seems clear from the graph, but I was focusing on today. -A
It should say “over 97%” above, darn.
happy earth day skeptics:
AFP: Shafiq Alam: Challenge to IPCC’s Bangladesh climate predictions
Scientists in Bangladesh posed a fresh challenge to the UN’s top climate change panel Thursday, saying its doomsday forecasts for the country in the body’s landmark 2007 report were overblown…
IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri defended his organisation’s Bangladesh predictions Thursday, warning that “on the basis of one study one cannot jump to conclusions.”
“The IPCC looks at a range of publications before we take a balanced view on what’s likely to happen,” he told AFP by telephone.
But IPCC’s prediction did not take into account the one billion tonnes of sediment carried by Himalayan rivers into Bangladesh every year, which are crucial in countering rises in sea levels, the study funded by the Asian Development Bank said…
“Sediments have been shaping Bangladesh’s coast for thousands of years,” said Maminul Haque Sarker, director of the Dhaka-based Center for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), who led research for the study…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jxWAlO7hpr2AXkrZMWswKyK39gOA
” John from CA (12:16:23) :
Mike Haseler (11:16:17) :
There isn’t any way he can win this suit,”
I don’t think he can win against the newspaper but he might be able to win libel suits against some hotblooded commenters. This together with Dr.Mann’s legal fight against M4GW indicates that a new phase has begun. AGW money can finance a lot of lawsuits. Keep your tongue in check everyone.
The [gd] Weather Channel at around 3-4 pm showed a program that was called “Future Earth” and showed useless propaganda about “Arctic in death spiral.” The fools failed to reconcile, that Arctic ice has highest in almost a decade, and that the world was cooling. Poor Stu Ostro is so confused, that I had to enlighten him with many of my comments! You can see my enlightening comments to poor old confused Stu here: http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_21489.html?from=blog_comment_mainindex#comment
I am Getting Cold, FYI.