Guest Post by Steven Goddard
We have all seen lots of pictures of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption now, with steam and ash billowing up in the air. The eruption started one month ago, and as the Guardian reports, The eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano is unlikely to have any significant impact on climate but has caused a small fall in carbon emissions, experts say.
The Guardian editors seem to have forgotten that the volcano itself is spewing massive amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere. Perhaps their kinship with Plane Stupid is having an impact? Plane Stupid’s goal is to stop plane traffic in the UK, and they must be thrilled by the flight ban and the damage to the economy.
Added:
Volcano CO2 budget (CO2 is emitted independent of ash) ~200,000 tons per day X 30 days of eruption = 6,000,000 tons of CO2.
Plane CO2 Budget – assumes half of EU planes haven’t flown for the past six days 340,000 EU tons per day X 0.5 EU shutdown X 6 days = ~1,000,000 tons of savings.
People using alternative transportation (as Anthony and the BBC pointed out) as a replacement for aircraft – cars, trains, battleships , etc. ~1,000,000 tons of extra CO2 Is a battleship more “green” than a jumbo jet?
The total gain is 6,000,000 – 1,000,000 + 1,000,000 = 6,000,000 tons of excess CO2 from the volcano. The temporary aircraft shutdown has little or no net impact on CO2 emissions, but the volcano has a large impact.
Video and reader poll follow.
Below is a video chronology of the glacier and volcano, giving a feel of the events of the past month. First video shows what the glacier looked like prior to the eruption.
The next video shows the first night of the eruption – March 21. Note the similarity to Hawaiian volcanoes – lava fountains and little steam or ash.
By March 24, some steam and ash is starting to appear as glacial meltwater begins to mix with the magma.
By April 14, flash flooding from glacial melt began to pour down the side of the glacier.
The flooding was widespread and devastating downstream.
By April 17, the eruption was primarily steam, CO2 and ash.
Should climate modelers start differentiating between man made CO2 and “organic” natural CO2?
Reader Poll :
@ur momisugly Steve in SC (07:56:49) and
gcb (08:07:20):
E.M. Smith has a GREAT article about the isotope ratios that “identify” fossil fuels. Which pretty clearly lays out the case that anyone telling you they can conclusively identify that this amount of atmospheric CO2 is man-made by the C12/C13 ratios, is dispensing cow patties.
Great read, hope you like it too.
T the time of writing this comment, 16 people have voted that the world would be better if there were no CO2.
So basically then, to those 16 people, the world would be better without life.
Just one small nit to pick Steve:-
O=C-O , not O=C=O
Like I said, a small nit.
And from the top it looks like: O-C=O , not O-C-O
George
” kadaka (09:17:29) :
[…]
Yes, I’m grinning while I type this. No, I have no idea offhand which has what ratios. Yes, I would grin wider if it turned out that by “gravitational separation” fossil-fuel CO2 was the “good” one.”
Separating isotopes with gravity or similar forces, namely centrifugal force, is done in those uranium spinners. The best ones of these rotate with speeds close to the speed of sound for months to separate the isotopes.
So ordinary earth gravity will not do a very good job of isotope separation and its negligible influence will be overwhelmed by any air movement.
The Grauniad seems to be making the assumption that all those poor folks who have been stranded by the ban on flights have remained static and are not producing any CO2 in their frantic efforts to get home and then won’t be producing any when they finally can fly.
There is already evidence of fleets of coaches being sent across europe to spain to pick up stranded passengers; car travel across multiple countries (eg from Finland to Calais); airliners on standby to make repatriation flights in addition to scheduled flights etc.
I suggest that when everything has settled down there will have been a significant increase in total CO2, and of course, we are bound to big a leap in global temperatures as a consequence ;-).
“”” enneagram (08:59:11) :
CO2 emission from volcanoes are caused by the decomposition of calcite (lime rock) CaCO3+heat=CaO+CO2 “””
That’s all well and good; but isn’t that Limestone Rock itself a fossil, maybe from some ancient ocean sediment ?
Just asking; seems like volcanic CO2 is fossil fuel effluent to me.
Glad to see that many posters note that the amount of CO2, and not where it comes from is important. Even the much larger Mt Pinotubo eruption in 1991 had no effect on the steady increase of C02 in the admosphere–not even a bump in the monthly data. Volcanoes are more likely to cause global cooling due to effects of dust and aerosols on sunlight (rather than warming due to release of CO2).
I did not like the poll, because the answer should have been “the amount of CO2 is important, not where it comes from.”
Bob–You are right that plants show measureable discrimination between carbon isotopes. However, the effects on changes in carbon isotopes on photosynthesis are negligible.
Henry Pool (09:15:13) :What is it evil, then?, obviously what goes against creative laws. And the “evil ones”?, these are of two kinds: those the real evil ones who are conscious of the existence of the real work of universal laws, and nevertheless try to oppose them and promote men’s ignorance and denial of them, as the PNS dark prophet and those just “freaky”, like Al baby, “the Fat One”, who know nothing but who help the real evil ones.
Evil promotes ignorance and agnosticism.
Zeke the Sneak (09:22:12) : Yes!, both are different: One goes out from a BIG HOLE on the ground, the other goes out from a LITTLE HOLE, back in your car.
In the US one of the bigger CO2 “manufacturer” is the Yellowstone’s geiser.
BTW you must challenge EPA to enforce law on it.
Steve in SC (07:56:49) :
Walt Meir (sp?) posited on this very blog that there was a unique chemical signature to man made CO2. Willis Eshenbach agreed with him.
I have yet to see what this secret signature is.
Could anyone shed any light on this, or are they as I suspect full of the digestive waste products of cattle?
REPLY:
The short explanation:
Coal and petrol are Fossil fuels and therefore are supposed to have no C14 left and have lots of C12.
The long explanation
It is more complicated than that.
First they find Coal does have C14 since carbon 12 and 13 are deemed stable while carbon 14 has a half-life around 5700 years give or take a few decades. However they have found radioactivity has caused C14 to be found in coal
“…In the course of this work, they’ve discovered that fossil fuels vary widely in 14C content. Some have no detectable 14C; some have quite a lot of 14C. Apparently it correlates best with the content of the natural radioactivity of the rocks surrounding the fossil fuels, particularly the neutron- and alpha-particle-emitting isotopes of the uranium-thorium series. Dr. Gove and his colleagues told me they think the evidence so far demonstrates that 14C in coal and other fossil fuels is derived entirely from new production of 14C by local radioactive decay of the uranium-thorium series. Many studies verify that coals vary widely in uranium-thorium content, and that this can result in inflated content of certain isotopes relevant to radiometric dating…” http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/c14.html
C-14 is also created in the upper atmosphere by radiation from the sun transforming
nitrogen-14 into C-14.
However plants throw a monkey wrench into the whole “man’s signature CO2”
“…Plant photosynthetic biochemistry is remarkably specific preferring to fix 12C over 13C by a large margin. Thus during photosynthesis d13C rises due to the preferential abstraction of 12C…. Note also that Respiration is Temperature dependent roughly doubling with a ten degree increase in temperature whereas photosynthesis is by and large not temperature dependent. This confounds attempts to correlate temperature with CO2 concentration which in any case cannot be done by simple regression as has been done recently in this discussion. This is because both are measured dependent variables. For regression to work properly one variable must be independent and known.” from jh (06:17:57) :
See comments near http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/08/nsidcs-walt-meier-responds-to-willis/#comment-364252
Hope that helps.
Peter Hearnden (08:00:35) :
How much CO2 is the volcano spewing out? You seem to imply you know how much?
it might make an interesting post to compare thast figure with the daily anthro CO2 emissions…
Let’s assume the volcano is emitting the high end 300,000 tons/day:
http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/2010/planes-or-volcano/
Human emissions are about 26.4 billion tonnes/year:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11638-climate-myths-human-co2-emissions-are-too-tiny-to-matter.html
Per day, that is 72,328,767 tonnes CO2.
A tonne is 1000 kg – about 1.1 “tons” (2000 pounds).
So, humans emit about 79.6 million tons/day of C02.
The volcano is emitting 0.3 million tons/day.
So, total human emissions are 265.33 times greater, every day.
If the volcano is actually emitting 150,000 tons/day, then humans are emitting 530.66 times more, every day.
George E. Smith (10:05:46)
Hmmm… Wikipedia says differently
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide
kadaka (09:17:29) :
Can I play, too??? C14 and C13 are bigger than C12, so, obviously, more surface space for lift. They probably stay in the air longer.
AIR POLLUTION ALERT! Massive amount of carbon dioxide to hit U.S. beginning Wednesday and continue through Sunday!!!!!
Thursday is Earth Day and beginning Wednesday environmentalists by the thousands will be driving and flying to events everywhere!
Example: On Sunday, April 25, Earth Day Network will organize a massive climate rally on The National Mall….
The Climate Rally will include notable speakers Reverend Jesse Jackson, film director, James Cameron, AFL-CIO President, Richard Trumka, Olympic gold medalist, Billy Demong, producer, Trudie Styler, author, Margaret Atwood, NFL player and television personality, Dhani Jones, environmental photographer Sebastian Copeland and many more.
The Climate Rally will also feature live music from Sting, John Legend, The Roots, Jimmy Cliff, Passion Pit, Bob Weir, Willie Colón, Joss Stone, Robert Randolph, Patrick Stump, Mavis Staples, Booker T, Honor Society and Tao Rodriguez-Seeger.
Washington DC to be hit the worst!!!!
“”” kadaka (09:17:29) :
stevengoddard (08:40:19) :
Steve in SC (07:56:49) :
Isotopic composition doesn’t affect chemical behaviour or spectral absorption in any significant way.
Those properties are controlled by the electron shells, not the number of neutrons in the nucleus. “””
So you are saying (Steve in SC) that Hydrogen and Deuterium have exactly the same Atomic Spectra.
I believe we can measure frequency differences down to parts in 10^15 or less; I would be surprised if H and D spectra are identical down to that level.
In fact I believe that actually you are quite wrong, and isotopic spectra are different; and by a darn side more than parts in 10^15.
As evidence of that I give you the spectrum of mercury, as in mercury vaporlamp sources.
It is well known that the atomic spectra of 198Hg is quite different from that of raw Mercury. Mercury 198 has spectacularly sharp spectral lines, compared to ordinary common garden variety mercury. I believe it is a lack of some sorts of hyperfine structure that leads to the difference.
Now I will have to find a photo from some Optics book, that shows the characteristic ring pattern from a Fabry-Perot spectrum of 198Hg, with its nice crisp rings compared to the fuzzy ones from ordinary Mercury.
198Hg is 10.02 % of natural Mercury
I seem to recall that the two O’s are not at 180 deg from one another, but more like 120 deg.
The natural CO2 then should have its arms lifted joyously upwards, while the manmade CO2’s arms should hang dejectedly downwards.
Or is that H2O I’m thinking of?
As far as plants are concerned, has the burning of fossil fuels increased or decreased the available C02 that plants consume, or is it a moot point?
My bad — Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide shows the O’s at 180 deg (and, contra George E Smith above, with two double bonds).
But if the O’s have thumbs, then surely the natural CO2s have their thumbs up, while jet CO2’s have their thumbs down?
Is it real .. or synthetic
Organic or Artificial Flavored
‘Green’ or dirty brown
Betcha cant tell it’s not butter
Is it live or is it Memorex?
HEy… I know, let’s test it for carcinogens
We can use my dad’s barn rats!
Ferdinand and others
Those carbonates in the earth’s crust, that the volcanoes are processing to release the CO2. Weren’t they laid down by living things? I look over to the great chalk hills of southern England. Most of that stupendous mass, hundred of miles long, is in fact sequestered CO2.
And AFAIK, all of it is the skeletons of tiny sea-creatures.
And a related question; if plants have an assymetric preference for certain carbon isotopes, how about those sea-creatures?
I just thought of something. Haven’t seen any effigy burnings lately. Is that due to the anti-CO2 sentiment that is prevalent in liberal quarters these days? Or have they just run out of targets?
{The eruption started one month ago, and as the Guardian reports, The eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano is unlikely to have any significant impact on climate but has caused a small fall in carbon emissions, experts say.}
Hmmmm…. What about this?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Coincedence? I think not!
🙂
Howarth (08:50:26) :
I was the first to vote for ” the world would be better off if there were no CO2″ Just my humble opinion ……so don’t hold your breath. )
REPLY:
I take it you do not like to eat… or breathe?
No CO2 and plants die (under 180 ppm) No CO2 and your body does not know it should take the next breath.
“The regulation of breathing is a homeostatic control mechanism, meaning that it seeks to maintain the stability of the body’s internal environment via negative feedback mechanisms. For example, high levels of carbon dioxide in the body automatically trigger quicker and deeper breathing, which in turn decreases the level of carbon dioxide by increasing the intake of oxygen…
Alkalosis. Loss of hydrogen ion in the blood and CSF, leading to respiratory alkalosis, meaning excessive loss of carbon dioxide from the body. An alkaline CSF inhibits the respiratory control center.” http://www.enotes.com/nursing-encyclopedia/breathing-regulation
What is the typical C13/C12 ratio given off by volcanic activity?
Peter Plail – you’ve forgotten to factor in the hobo-towns of German Exchange Students discussed in a previous thread here. These new airport-terminal communes may indeed become preferable habitats for some of these stranded travellers. Perhaps some of them have even fine-tuned their tent-mounted solar arrays to better harness the abundant energy put out by the flourescent lighting of JFK International, and not only are completely self-sufficient, but can actually put electricity onto the grid!
Nothing wrong with that logic. Nope. Somebody slice off a piece of ARRA stimulus funding to subsidize their efforts.