Guest Post by Steven Goddard
We have all seen lots of pictures of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption now, with steam and ash billowing up in the air. The eruption started one month ago, and as the Guardian reports, The eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano is unlikely to have any significant impact on climate but has caused a small fall in carbon emissions, experts say.
The Guardian editors seem to have forgotten that the volcano itself is spewing massive amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere. Perhaps their kinship with Plane Stupid is having an impact? Plane Stupid’s goal is to stop plane traffic in the UK, and they must be thrilled by the flight ban and the damage to the economy.
Added:
Volcano CO2 budget (CO2 is emitted independent of ash) ~200,000 tons per day X 30 days of eruption = 6,000,000 tons of CO2.
Plane CO2 Budget – assumes half of EU planes haven’t flown for the past six days 340,000 EU tons per day X 0.5 EU shutdown X 6 days = ~1,000,000 tons of savings.
People using alternative transportation (as Anthony and the BBC pointed out) as a replacement for aircraft – cars, trains, battleships , etc. ~1,000,000 tons of extra CO2 Is a battleship more “green” than a jumbo jet?
The total gain is 6,000,000 – 1,000,000 + 1,000,000 = 6,000,000 tons of excess CO2 from the volcano. The temporary aircraft shutdown has little or no net impact on CO2 emissions, but the volcano has a large impact.
Video and reader poll follow.
Below is a video chronology of the glacier and volcano, giving a feel of the events of the past month. First video shows what the glacier looked like prior to the eruption.
The next video shows the first night of the eruption – March 21. Note the similarity to Hawaiian volcanoes – lava fountains and little steam or ash.
By March 24, some steam and ash is starting to appear as glacial meltwater begins to mix with the magma.
By April 14, flash flooding from glacial melt began to pour down the side of the glacier.
The flooding was widespread and devastating downstream.
By April 17, the eruption was primarily steam, CO2 and ash.
Should climate modelers start differentiating between man made CO2 and “organic” natural CO2?
Reader Poll :
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Does Iceland qualify for Carbon credits based on the CO2 not produced by all the planes their volcano halted?
When Katla goes, and it could be soon, this CO2 argument is going to be irrelevant..
Last Time it erupted big the Mississippi froze north of N.O..
Zeke Hausfather (07:58:49) :
Actual source of the information about Volcano CO2 emission:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.8cc536b2db245bb0c34359dccb86d29a.161&show_article=1
I always pictured natural CO2 as spritely, like a Dryad. It flitters and floats majestically and happily through the meadow, gently feeding the flowers.
Human-emitted CO2 is a scruffy sketchy guy in a black leather jacket with an illegal concealed handgun. He bullies the other passing molecules and spends most of his days hanging around in downtown areas, mocking and choking the life out of oxygen breathers.
There weren’t any days when EU plane traffic was completely shut down. It was only west of the Alps, so the 340,000 figure is not accurate.
They are trying to save face, but the 300,000 tons from the volcano probably exceeds the savings from grounded planes. Also, the volcano emissions are just an estimate – with a wide error bar.
Volcano emitting 150-300,000 tonnes of CO2 daily: experts
Iceland’s Eyjafjoell volcano is emitting between 150,000 and 300,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per day, a figure placing it in the same emissions league as a small-to-medium European economy, experts said on Monday.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.8cc536b2db245bb0c34359dccb86d29a.161&show_article=1
Has anyone double checked the figure for the reduction of CO2 from planes not flying? Could they be using the amount “spewed” by all aircraft instead of the amount that would have been “spewed” by the planes not flying in the volcanic ash areas? I have learned to take these things with a grain of salt.
Don’t you just love the word “spewed?”
Zeke Hausfather (07:58:49) :
The source that made the original bad estimate is still passing misinformation.
150,000 is at the very low end of volcano estimates, and the 340,000 figure for the EU is incorrect because only part of the EU was shut down to plane travel. Today the EU is operating at 50%
A rather esoteric concern. Ask a plant and they don’t care where their CO2 came from; all they’ll say is, “Feed me, feed me!”
BTW, been watching the increase in aircraft flying today in Europe. Must be a bit embarrassing to MET to see those planes overflying the UK with no problems being reported so far, while the UK airports remain closed.
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1852153/volcano_co2_output_could_be_150300000_tons_daily/
Volcano CO2 Output Could Be 150-300,000 Tons Daily
Posted on: Tuesday, 20 April 2010, 06:40 CDT
Experts said on Monday that the volcano in Iceland is emitting 150,000 to 300,000 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) per day, a figure comparable to emissions released from a small industrial nation.
On a country-by-country basis, the emissions from the volcano would be placed 47th to 75th in the world table of emitters if based on a yearlong output. The data was compiled by the World Resources Institute (WRI), which tracks environmental and sustainable development.
Being ranked 47th would place it above many other countries including Austria, Belarus, Portugal, Ireland, Finland, Bulgaria, Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland.
I am sure that this is a surprise for the Prophet (aka: Al Gore or El Gordo). He is just an instrumental “freak” who does not know a thing of science and, though profiting relatively a little, is but a puppet of the bankers’ elite who are the real ones behind the scene, as all the policians chore repeating the climate change mantra.
While I voted that there is no difference between the CO2s, I now realize it is a dangerous stance with cap and trade on the horizon. Think of the implications for new revenue sources (taxes) globally if volcanoes are taxed! We must find a way to differentiate the two types of CO2, or pass laws disallowing nations to eject states that happen to have volcanic activity to avoid CO2 taxes.
Has Iceland tried to apply the volcano’s net carbon offset to the carbon exchange market?
I would imagine that the Gore-Pachauri Alliance might be interested in brokering a deal for the right cut.
Meanwhile elsewhere, unhappy travelers are venting more than steam by their volcanic reaction to being stranded. (Do extra heavy breaths create additional CO2 that may not have been included in the calculation?)
😉
According to the unvalidated IPCC computer models, there is a difference between the two sources of CO2:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/03/co2-lifetime-which-do-you-believe.html
Is there any estimates as to whether this erution is spewing enough ash into the stratosphere to effect weather in the coming months/years?
Thanks in advance.
@Alleagra
“Well, at least the planes aren’t emitting 3,000 tons of sulphur dioxide per day according to this link:”
Right on! Not to mention all the other nasty things. Isn’t CO2 high in the atmosphere supposed to be worse too. Seems this volcano is super nasty.
The last time this volcano erupted, it lasted for 18 months. If that hapens this time, what will happen to Europe/air industry? I would love to see a well resurched blog post on that one!
Steve in SC (07:56:49) :
Isotopic composition doesn’t affect chemical behaviour or spectral absorption in any significant way.
Those properties are controlled by the electron shells, not the number of neutrons in the nucleus.
Regarding the poll…decisions, decisions. I think the Guardian option would be the better choice.
but what about the “other” greenhouse gas being released ? the most significant gas, water vapor, is also being released but as usual is being ignored …
I have the answer!
Human produced CO2 contains a formerly sequestered carbon with two atmospheric oxygen atoms, decreasing the total amount of free O2 in the atmosphere, O2 that cute deer and rabbits need to live.
Volcanic CO2 releases formerly trapped oxygen atoms back into the atmsphere, at least once a plant eats it, eventually increasing the number of free oxygen atoms available to deer and bunnies.
stevengoddard,
I’d say lets just call them equal, since there is enough uncertainty in the volcano emissions (150k-300k) and the avoided flight emissions (somewhere < 340k due to not all flights in Europe being grounded and people taking either trains or cars instead of flights). Probably too much uncertainty to know for sure without putting more effort into figuring it out than the problem really justifies.
REPLY: Let’s not neglect the fact that when people want to get home, they’ll do whatever it takes. So they shift to other modes of transportation. Many will rent cars (like happened in the USA at 9/11) and drive long distances. Others will move to trains, or perhaps a series of prop driven commuter flight short hops. Of course these produce CO2 also. Whether there’s a net loss of CO2 production overall due to lack of air transportation is certainly debatable. If the volcano continues as it has done in history it will be moot anyway. – Anthony
@R. de Haan (08:07:39) :
”
Even if we would cancel all air traffic for an entire year it would only reduce the the CO2 emissions by a meager 1.5 %. costing the economy billions of dollars a day.
Air transport is a real soft spot of our economy and security.
Without it we are back into the Stone Age!”
I dissagree with the Stone Age comment! I believe that most air travel is frivoulous. Tourist dollars would be spent driving to closer destinations, most buisness travel could be done via tele/videoconference. Intra-contenental traffic would just switch to train. The only real impact would be rush shipments.
Anthony captured this image on April 15, which demonstrates just how bogus the 340,000 savings claim is.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/uk_flight3.jpg
There were planes flying over much of Europe, and the eruption has gone on much longer than any flight disruption. Net effect of the volcano is a large increase in CO2 relative to the planes.
I was the first to vote for ” the world would be better off if there were no CO2″ Just my humble opinion ……so don’t hold your breath. )