Climate sceptic wins landmark data victory ‘for price of a stamp’
Belfast ecologist forced to hand over tree-ring data describes order from information commission as a ‘staggering injustice’
by Fred Pearce The Guardian, Tuesday 20 April 2010
The Queen’s University of Belfast, Northern Ireland, must hand over 40 years’ worth of data on 7,000 years of Irish tree rings. Photograph: Ron Sachs / Rex Features/Rex Features
An arch-critic of climate scientists has won a major victory in his campaign to win access to British university data that could reveal details of Europe’s past climate.
In a landmark ruling, the UK Information Commissioner’s Office has ruled that Queen’s University Belfast must hand over data obtained during 40 years of research into 7,000 years of Irish tree rings to a City banker and part-time climate analyst, Doug Keenan.
This week, the Belfast ecologist who collected most of the data, Professor Mike Baillie, described the ruling as “a staggering injustice … We are the ones who trudged miles over bogs and fields carrying chain saws. We prepared the samples and – using quite a lot of expertise and judgment – we measured the ring patterns. Each ring pattern therefore has strong claims to be our copyright. Now, for the price of a stamp, Keenan feels he is entitled to be given all this data.”
Keenan revealed this week that he is launching a new assault. On Monday, he demanded the university also hand over emails that could reveal a three-year conspiracy to block his data request.
Keenan has become notorious for pursuing a series of vitriolic disputes with British academics over climate data. Two years ago, he accused Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia of “fraud” over his analysis of data from weather stations in China. Jones recently conceded he may have to revise the paper concerned.
The latest ruling comes from Graham Smith, deputy information commissioner, who in January said information requests to CRU from climate sceptics were “not dealt with as they should have been under the legislation.” In the Belfast case, as well as insisting the university hand over the data, Smith has accused the university authorities of “a number of procedural breaches.”
The case goes back to April 2007, when Keenan asked Queen’s University for all data from tree-ring studies by Baillie and others. The data covers more than 7,000 years. They contain upwards of 1m measurements from 11,000 tree samples, mostly of oak. The university turned down Keenan’s request, citing a range of exemptions allowed under both the Freedom of Information Act and the European Union’s environmental information regulations. Keenan appealed to the information commissioner.
more at the Guardian
It will be interesting to see what independent analysis shows.
The issue of making data available has nothing to do with law, justice or the price of a stamp. It’s not to do with transparency as a marketing tactic. ‘Why should I make my data available to you when you are going to try to use it to prove me wrong?’ – because it’s the essence of the scientific method. Eddington’s trip to Principe in 1919 to photograph starlight bending as it went past the Sun was expensive, but he and Einstein didn’t prevent other people from having it for the price of a stamp. They didn’t use a trick to hide the difference between relativity’s predictions and the actual results. They published their data, and said ‘prove us wrong’. The challenge still stands. But then, Eddington and Einstein were scientists.
Unfortunately, Professor Mike Baillie has the last laugh.
While most of us will be freezing in dark poverty in a few years, he will be basking in the luxury of inflation proof medical, dental and pension benefits that the rest of us can only dream of, and yet oddly enough have to pay for.
The real criminals are the politicians who shape behavior by doling out laboratory food pellets, excuse me, – correction – “research grants” for alarmist reports only. Don’t forget the liberal left wing “main stream media” who form opinions for the general population based on their fear of science and numbers.
Long live Skinner and Pavlov, Down with Freud. From an engineering physicist who has to “make science work”.
I was very glad that The Guardian published about this. There are a couple inaccuracies in the story though.
The biggest inaccuracy is the claim that “[Keenan] admits he has no expertise in tree-ring analysis”. Although I have no experience with physical samples, I do have expertise in analyzing tree-ring data, which is what is relevant here. For example, in 2002, I published a critique of some of the work done by a world-leading dendrochronologist; the criticism concerned both the methods used and the results asserted. The criticism was initially strongly denied, and then later accepted as valid by the researcher’s own lab (e.g. Griggs & Manning [Radiocarbon, 2009]). I also have substantial experience with the statistical analysis of time series, which is what tree-ring analysis is based on.
Also, I am not a City banker. I did used to work for City banks, but I left in 1995. While there, I worked as both a research mathematician and a bond/derivatives trader. This is relevant, because financial data are also time series.
Additionally, I agree that researchers who gather data should get exclusive access to the data—but only for a limited time. Baillie gathered the data decades ago (and he is now emeritus); yet he still refuses to allow access.
I left a couple comments at The Guardian, but other commenters do not seem to be noticing them.
Found it! I remember seeing on Doug Keenan’s site an explanation of why he considered the Irish data important.
“Ireland is immediately downwind from the North Atlantic Drift. Changes in the strength and temperature of the Drift—which correlate with changes in the formation of deep water—will strongly affect the climate in Ireland: temperature, precipitation, etc. Such climatic effects will naturally influence trees growing in Ireland. As discussed elsewhere, each ring of a tree indicates what the climate was like during the year in which the ring grew. Thus Irish tree rings would seem to contain annual data on the global climate system.
There are currently tree-ring measurements from Ireland covering the past 7000 years or so. Those measurements are thus valuable for the study of Earth’s climate.”
from http://www.informath.org/apprise/a3900/b910.htm
It looks as if the retired Mike Baillie is no longer particularly research active, at least from publications, nor that there is significant work by others in the department currently. Given the interest today it would be a shame not to have access to such a long record.
Congratulations Mr. Keenan!
Too bad about your lack of expertise in tree-ring analysis. Maybe you should send it over to an expert like Mann to check it out for you.
artwest (11:18:33) wrote:
I think in the Guardian comments we can see the effect of Monbiot and cos. quick response emails – lots of repeat posters being shouty, nasty, lacking in knowledge of the subject, repeating each other’s “points” and looking for any excuse to ridicule anyone “off message”.
I wonder if the Guardian is happy with an employee encouraging a lurch downwards in the standards of its comments.
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Well, now we know why its called the “Guardian” and what they are guarding. I am surprised that they actually publish as much inconvenient material as they do. That they are forced to by reality is a good sign.
I suggest reverse cherry picking the tree ring data.
On the assumption that some of the time, some of the trees respond to temperature, we can look through the data and find those trees that suggest a large MWP. Then, selecting those trees ( a proceedure unique to dendro studies) we can see how well those trees correlate with current temps.
These special trees will be uber treemometers, in that they will be the special trees that.
1. show a high MWP
2. Correlate well with the present.
Given enough tree ring data I am sure we could find such patterns.
Then, you take those special trees and you write a paper. Then, when somebody asks you WHICH TREES you used, then you can:
1 rename the series so its hard for people to figure out.
2. Point to the million records and say ” the trees are in there”
( this is the CRU trick with ghcn)
3. Tell people it would take too much time to share your data.
4. Accuse the other party of having bad motives and wanting to prove you wrong
Professionally speaking, in academia, does this professor actually have the job title “ecologist”? He’s working with tree ring data. Isn’t he a dendrochronologist, or dendroclimatologist, or a paleoclimatologist or something like that? Perhaps a biologist, one of the more specialized kinds with an adjective like a “marine biologist” would be? Could he be a dendritic biologist? “Ecologist” just sounds too wide-open and… flaky, for a university professor.
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Bill Tuttle (10:56:09) :
Of course. Why else would you carry a chain saw over “miles of bogs”…?
Well, if they’re carrying the type of equipment needed to dredge up and haul out old logs from the depths of bogs so they can cut slices from them, I’d think they’d be using transportation that could haul those chainsaws for them.
“The nine rings for mortal manN were those divided amongst those evil-hearted men doomed to become the NazGore, the Climatewraiths.”
“Forged by the Dark Lord Darth Maurice Strong himself the “One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them, One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness [of the IPCC] bind them.”
[:)]
Great work Frodo, er, Douglas Keenan, you stamped your way to freedom through Mordor from their tyranny to destroy the One Ring of Secrecy.
Smashing the Cult of Climate Secrecy is proving to be quite effective.
Keep up the excellent work. I look forward to your analysis.
A question, are there any limitations on your use or replication of the data? When do you get it? I’d love to play with it myself.
Mandatory link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordor.
V jones said
“Ireland is immediately downwind from the North Atlantic Drift. Changes in the strength and temperature of the Drift—which correlate with changes in the formation of deep water—will strongly affect the climate in Ireland: temperature, precipitation, etc. ”
I think the down wind element is probably the most relevant. The climate of the British Isles is irrevocably wedded to wind direction. The past winter had mainly easterlies and brought cold weather as opposed to the usual mild westerlies. The same thing happended to a lesser extent in the winter of 2008/9
HH Lamb wrote some interesting stuff on winds and it is on my ‘to do’ list to write an article on the relationship between wind direction and climate. Certainly Lamb believed (as I do) that the LIA and MWP were primarily caused by greater than usual persistence of one wind direction over another. The reasons for that persistence is something that appears rather uncertain, but probably has something to do with blocking highs.
Tonyb
Having known earth science researchers who literally risked their lives on volcanoes and glaciers and landslides to liberate knowledge for all of humanity, I find this story mid-boggling.
So now you little Mickey are learning bad habits from your teacher J.H.(aka:Death coal trains). So you say now ‘Hide den Verfall’ video nicht! …wollen sie es verbotten?
http://www.spunk.org/places/germany/sp001630/peter.html
FYI: Climategate email 0897669409.txt (Fri Jun 12 12:36:49 1998) from Mike Baillie to Keith Briffa contains a brief description of Baillie’s work.
Mike Haseler (10:43:42) :
“The original “Hide the Decline” video, which had more than 500,000 viewers, was removed today from YouTube by M4GW’s Elmer Beauregard.”
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/climategate-figure-threatens-lawsuit-over,1256901.shtml
OH NO! I play it every day!!!!
Sorry I forgot made the reference to Mike Haseler (10:43:42) :
The Dutch parliament opened an investigation into the correctness of the IPCC data and related theories . Some prominent scientists declared the whole AGW – CO2 theory a lot of baloney wherefor the empirical proof was missing and which was contradicted by laws governing thermodynamics . Do you happen to know who came with outright hostile reactions ? Journalists ! Seeing their beliefs shaken and a possible victory of the denialists , their words , they started to smash the dirtiest vitriol against scientists that were trying to make their point .
Readers we are dealing here , like you in england , with strong believers in a cause , which overvalues the importance of mankind , the big temptation of any human to be the boss of his destiny in his own mind and most likely capable to do anything to suppress any denial of their fairy world . What did we learn our children ? No matter how ugly the bastards are , the smart , the good and the humbles will succeed . Thank you Mr Doug KEENAN for doing this service to mankind.
This lay person’s general cynicism regarding the warmists and their protectionist methodology asks “Is it possible over a 3 year period (and more since we haven’t seen any data) that someone could manipulate the raw data?
I mean, we’re not getting tree slices plopped down in front of us, right?
Having read some of Mr Keenan’s investigations and his postulations on aspects of climate science, I would suggest he is an astute detective who has exposed fraudulent scientific practices by a few climate scientists. Unsurprisingly, official enquiries in to the fraudulent practices he has exposed have exonerated the scientists with the usual whitewash.
Baillie’s attitude suggests to me that there may be something to hide in the techniques of ‘reading’ tree rings.
Montana trees also exhibit evidence of precipitation. Pederson et al in 2006 studied the variability of droughts in the Glacier National Park and other Rocky Mountain locations, which helps explain why glaciers were rapidly declining in the 1800s and early 1900s before carbon dioxide became a “problem.”
http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/wkgrps/ecosys_resp/postings/pdf/pederson_etal2006.pdf
The release of the Irish tree data will advance knowledge and science. Why would academics and researchers possibly object?
I thought that data couldnt be copyrighted. along with documents created by govt agencies. or is that just US copyright law?
If any form of copyright applies to raw data or interim processing
information, it would be under the “Crown copyright” .
The British Geological Survey is a whiz at making their “Crown Copyright” geographic, geologic, and cartographic materials
available to the public.
Unless the “Queen” referred to in “Queens University of Belfast”
is some guy in a dress, Professor Mike Baillie wouldn’t control
the copyright, it would be property of the “Crown”.
“We are the ones who trudged miles over bogs and fields carrying chain saws. We prepared the samples and – using quite a lot of expertise and judgment – we measured the ring patterns. Each ring pattern therefore has strong claims to be our copyright.”
Most of the crimatologists are more subtle, more attuned to the nuances of propaganda. Baillie is different: he’s given us a perfectly pithy 🙂 and concise statement of total corruption.
They used FOSSIL FUEL POWERED CHAIN SAWS?
Did they PLANT the same number of trees they cut down?
These are ECO-CRIMINALS.
Hopefully Mr. Keenan will have them tried at the Hauge for “crimes against the enviroment.”
I do recommend reading the Information Commissioner’s judgement at http://www.informath.org/apprise/a3900/b163282.pdf.
five will get you ten that this is the last we ever hear of Keenan and this tree-ring record. He won’t bother to do any analysis with it; he’ll just go off to slay some other dragon.
Whether it’s tree rings, temp stations, or code, most of the “skeptics” are like a dog chasing a car- once they get it, they don’t know what to do with it!