Richard North of the EU Referendum sends word of this new paper. I’m sure Greenpeace won’t be amused as more polar bears turn into dumpster divers with this new influx of miners and drillers in the new ice free future.
After the Ice Melts: Conflict Resolution and the International Scramble for Natural Resources in the Arctic Circle
Wei-en Tan, Department of Diplomacy, National Chengchi University, Yu-tai Tsai Institute of Strategic and International Affairs Studies, National Chung Cheng University No. 64, Sec. 2, Chinan Rd., Taipei 11605, Taiwan (PDF available here )
Abstract
It is a well-known fact that global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap.
As this happens, the natural resources in the Arctic will become available for exploitation. As such, the five countries with major claims to the region—the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, and Norway—are looking to extend their claims to the natural resources beneath the ice-covered ocean. The size of the Arctic Shelf is about 4.5 million square kilometers, and the U.S. Geological Survey posits that 25 percent of the world’s undiscovered gas and oil reserves may be there. Clearly, there are large amounts of untapped resources that these five countries could use to satisfy their increasing demand for development and economy.
This paper will try to explore the current disputes over Arctic seabed resources surrounding the five states in North Pole, evaluate the regimes for resolving the conflict in UNCLOS. Furthermore, the paper will introduce the appropriate points
of view and discuss the alternative dispute settlement mechanism (DSM) for this significant problem caused by global warming in the coming future.
…
It is very clear that the Arctic region stands at the threshold of significant changes. The increasing rate at which the Arctic ice is melting will surely have a major impact on local ecosystems and the potential exploitation of natural resources. By virtue of their sovereign rights and jurisdiction, the five countries with claims to the Arctic region are presently at a critical juncture for addressing their current and future conflicts of interest. This paper explores the current disputes over Arctic Ocean resources and evaluates the mechanisms in UNCLOS for resolving these kinds of disputes. Furthermore, this paper introduces the viewpoints and discusses the alternative dispute settlement mechanisms (DSM) which can be employed to solve this kind of significant problem.
…
Conclusion
Global warming has not only challenged the authority of UNCLOS and its legal regime for resolving disputes relating to the continental shelf under the Arctic Ocean, but has also marked the beginning of the end for freedom of the high seas in the Arctic region. In addition to its environmental implications, global warming has caused a shift in the way the international community regards the Arctic, shifting the paradigm away from physical dominion and towards control over resources on the sea floor. The unprecedented access to untapped resources brought about by the receding permafrost in the Arctic Circle may soon cause an international gold rush as well as a variety of conflicts.
The conflicts over the Arctic region are unlikely to be resolved within the very near future. With five major states making claims to extensive parts of the Arctic seabed, there is a lot of scientific and professional work that needs to be done. Fortunately, there has been one good development since the conflict began. On May 28, 2008, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the United States came together for the Arctic Ocean Conference in Greenland. (Note 66) The goal of the Conference, initiated by Denmark’s Foreign Minister, was to foster unity and cooperation in the Arctic area so as to prevent an environmental catastrophe. The result of the Conference was the Ilulissat Declaration. This document states that no new legal framework will be set up to govern the Arctic. Instead, the parties agreed to proceed using the guidelines set forth in UNCLOS. (Note 67) While this Declaration is not necessarily ground-breaking, it is encouraging in that it signals a willingness of the involved Arctic states to work together in settling their disputes.
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Lewis Pugh can haul drilling equipment on his kayak up to the pole, along with Catlin’s human powered dog sled. They just need to wait for the temperature to get above minus 45 C.
Never read such a pile of hog wash in my life!
REPLY: there’s an app for that
Talk about counting your chickens before the eggs have hatched…
Anthony, you really should put a current graph of Arctic ice in this article. Or send it to them. Something tells me we will be waiting a long time for oil out of the frozen parts of the Arctic.
I wonder if this paper was peer-reviewed?
It is a well known fact that most well known facts are not true.
They must have missed the memo that Arctic ice is back at normal levels
In years gone bye there was a saying that “paper doesn’t refuse ink” when someone printed something worthless. Is there a similar statement in existence for the digital age?
Maybe “pixels display without questioning” or some such thing.
How many ice free weeks each summer would be needed to move into the area in question, accomplish something economically, and return to a safe place? Will the planned exploitation of resources be a yearly affair or can it be sustained with 70% or so ice free area once every 25 years?
Hypothetical questions for it is clear that in about 5 years all the ice on the Arctic Ocean will be gone and will only reappear at rare and random intervals.
Well if you have been listening to the great Oracle in his daily photo-op teleprompter reads; you would already know that he is opening up new oil leases off Virginia; but closing them everywhere else where the USA has oil.
In particular he has closed all offshore drillling anwhere where the Alaskan winds happen to blow in the arctic.
I just secured a nice deal on a lease off Virginia myself. Well this area has always been open for leases; it’s just closed for drilling; and will remain so.
I got a pristine location that is just 417 Nautical Miles off the coast of Virginia, in only 26,400 feet of water; really nice surroundings.
But yes I only have a lease; I’m not allowed to drill for oil there, and already the envir-wackos are suing me just for having the lease.
It’s all just a scam to make you think that the Oracle is moving to the center on energy; just before he gets ready to railroad through his Royal Decree on cap and tax on CO2; which he needs to fund his Socialist health takeover, that we just got saddled with.
So if you imagine for a minute that anybody is going to drill for oil on any real estate that is below mean lower low sea level anywhere near the USA; you can forget it.
Ooh, ooh.
There’s a lot of stuff under the Martian permafrost too–James Hansen said so, right? All we have to do is hitch a ride with the Russians and it’s ours, ours, ours.
I call dibbs on Antarctica!!!
This paper has go to be tied with some kind or funding. Meaning that if they want a renewed grant, they’d better write and publish something real quick. The gravy train is only so wide. What research is being short-sheeted for this kind of garbage?
As I understand it, northern Russia is under the Canadian continental shelf. So, that should settle it. 🙂
There’s a lot of land under the Antarctic that no doubt has as much oil and mineral reserves as the other continents, and would be a lot easier to get at than under the Arctic ocean: click1, click2
Problem is, the Antarctic ice cap isn’t going to melt away.
And neither is the Arctic.
But there’s plenty of hydrocarbons on Titan: click
Bad timing.
How does Denmark have a claim to drilling rights? Denmark is far from the Arctic.
Clearly Canada is the most suitable custodian of the resources (and as Canada is Crown territory, the whole lot ultimately belongs to Britain anyway 😉
Problem solved, any questions?
Good, thats settled
(God, I love being a Brit!)
All we have to do now is wait for the ice to melt and we can sell it to the Chinese.
Yeah, like they really care about thier AGW theory. They would surely cry all the way to the bank if the Arctic were to melt away.
I am more and more convinced that Warmists live in a parallel universe, a sort of climate Wonderland, where down is up, cold is hot, good is bad and lies are truth. This paper is just more proof of it.
The ladies for rent at Copenhagen can go open saloons on the North Shores of Russia. Waxman can call the planet in for interrogation and hearings. All this action may be too progressive for the tree huggers.
The Trans Arctic pipeline…hmmm.
Quite the logistics problem to get oil to market would you not think?
Companies could loose their shirts in this one.
“Companies could loose their shirts in this one.”
Well, as long as it is those ladies for rent at Copenhagen who loose their shirts!!
@Carbon Dioxide
by way of proxy as in Greenland
This must be an a paper intended for April 1st. (LOL)
Carbon Dioxide (17:14:36) :
How does Denmark have a claim to drilling rights? Denmark is far from the Arctic.
A legacy of Leif Ericson. AD 970 – AD. 1020 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leif_Ericson
Denmark rules Greenland, so they actually have the 2nd best claim after the Inuits, possibly even ahead of them too, as one theory is that the last Greenland Viking residents were killed off by Inuits moving into the area as the MWP ended.
Maybe a little off topic- but looking up the exact dates got me thinking.
Ericson Lived from 970 – 1020
King Canute lived from 985 or 995 – 1035
The Medieval Warm Period lasted from AD 950–1250
This means that Ericson discovered Greenland in 1002 or 1003, only 50 years into the warming period, and there is evidence that the permafrost and ice extent were less at that stage than they are now.
That means that either the warming was very fast indeed, or the pre MWP climate was warmer (and ice extent lower) than modern times.
That is why I included Canute. He has been mentioned by both sides of the AGW debate (usually sarcastically), but I have not seen anyone spot or comment on the significance of WHEN he lived.
Canute was a contemporary of Ericson. They both lived near the start of the MWP. Canute’s subjects hoped that he would be able to hold back the tide. Significant? Maybe, if you were getting large sea level rises and people were legitimately worried about it.
When I was at school sea level rise was taught as one of the triggers of the Saxons and later the Vikings invasions of England.
We get bombarded with statements about the current warming being unprecedented, but I’d suggest that the MWP warming happened much more dramatically, and likewise sea level rise- enough to be easily detectable without sophisticated measuring equipment.
Leon Brozyna (16:39:37) :
Talk about counting your chickens before the eggs have hatched
Leon -the eggs haven’t even left the Chicken yet..