Guest post by Steven Goddard
Photo above from: NY Daily News: Record Snowfall in New York
Now that we have reached the end of the meteorological winter (December-February,) Rutgers University Global Snow Lab numbers (1967-2010) show that the just completed decade (2001-2010) had the snowiest Northern Hemisphere winters on record. The just completed winter was also the second snowiest on record, exceeded only by 1978. Average winter snow extent during the past decade was greater than 45,500,000 km2, beating out the 1960s by about 70,000 km2, and beating out the 1990s by nearly 1,000,000 km2. The bar chart below shows average winter snow extent for each decade going back to the late 1960s.
Here are a few interesting facts.
- Average winter snow extent has increased since the 1990s, by nearly the area of Texas and California combined.
- Three of the four snowiest winters in the Rutgers record occurred during the last decade – the top four winters are (in order) 1978, 2010, 2008, 2003
- The third week of February, 2010 had the second highest weekly extent (52,170,000 m2) out of the 2,229 week record
The bar graph below shows winter data for each year in the Rutgers database, color coded by decade. The yellow line shows the mean winter snow extent through the period. Note that the past decade only had two winters below 45 million km2. The 1990s had seven winters below the 45 million km2, the 1980s had five winters below 45 million km2, and the 1970s had four winters below 45 million km2. This indicates that the past decade not only had the most snowfall, but it also had the most consistently high snowfall, year over year.
It appears that AGW claims of the demise of snowfall have been exaggerated. And so far things are not looking very good for the climate model predictions of declining snowfall in the 21st century.
Many regions of the Northern Hemisphere have seen record snowfall this winter, including Washington D.C, Moscow, China, and Korea. Dr. Hansen’s office at Columbia University has seen record snowfall, and Al Gore has ineptly described the record snow :
“Just as it’s important not to miss the forest for the trees, neither should we miss the climate for the snowstorm,”
A decade long record across the entire Northern Hemisphere is not appropriately described as a “snowstorm.”
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For what I know, the models predict more precipitations in the winter, but a less extended period of snow (a wetter but shorter winter).
While you don’t mention it, the annual average snow is indeed decreasing. In what sense do the observations you show then contradict the predictions?
Re: Lancet
Maybe the Lancet will also comment on the 25,000 British pensioners die of cold, every year? Or the thousands of people who die in North India every time there is a cold snap? Surely there be fewer of these types of deaths if the world warmed?
Assuming AGW for the sake of this point: Surely if we’re going to measure impact of warming, we need to consider both positive and negative aspects. Or are cold-related deaths acceptable whereas warming-related deaths aren’t?
Ref – RR Kampen (03:20:16) :
Re: Pascvaks (16:57:20) :
“Warmest? and Snowiest? Somehow I just knew there had to be a logical connection. Beautiful! This explains everything!”
Of course. More H2O in the air, is just an AGW-prediction you probably forgot. Maybe you consider a temperaturechange from -7 to -4° C as, well, what? Cooling?
How does the snowcover in March hold out?
How about trends in duration of snowcover?
_______________________
We are not given to understand these things. These mysteries are for others to solve. Some day, some when, perhaps in a Galexy far far away, a child will be born who will know all (or a lot more than we do) and answer these mystical questions you have posed to me.
I once heard it said that the Roman Empire eventually fell because they used too much lead in their pipes and people went stupid and crazy. I suppose we have a similiar problem in our day and age. Perhaps it is the plastic or the glue we use to stick it together?
“nasa” has recently announced their discovery that the Chilian Quake shifted the tilt of the globe and made a change to the Earth’s rotation speed. Through my superior powers of deduction, and blessed by his highness Leif The Great, I recently commented that Climate variation is a function of Geology, that it is henseforth and evermore to be considered a minor subfield of that Guild of Science. Don’t you agree?
Life’s a beach! Forever changing! Forever the same! Sometimes hot! Sometimes cold! Sometimes stormy! Sometimes calm! Sometimes clean and fresh! Sometimes filthy and foul. Sometimes long! Sometimes short! –I could go on and on..;-)
Willis,
Perhaps a touch of satire. ;^)
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/science/earth/22warming.html
This one is dedicated to Dr. James “tipping point” Hansen
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gradualism
Arctic sea ice extent is approaching a record high in the six year DMI record
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
A decade of life counted in years begins on your first birthday (after you were born, you can’t be one years old till you have lived outside your mommy’s tummy for a year). Given that example, if your first birthday is in 2001, on your 10th birthday (in 2010), you will have been on this Earth for 10 entire years.
So for our decade of snow example, the first snow season ended its first year in 2001. Counting forward to the last snow season, it ended in 2010. 10 snow seasons.
Steve Goddard (21:29:31) : After five months of miserable cold, snow and ice at 45N in Colorado, we finally had a warm afternoon today. We definitely felt the shift in the Jet Stream.
Thanks for a good article Steve. I agree, it has been a long cold winter in Colorado. On the Western Slope it seems like the last two days are warmer than it has been since Oct/Nov, we had none of the usual warm days here and there. I am curious, living at about 39° N 40′, what part of Colorado at 45°N? That latitude is on the border of Montana…
I wanted to add…I keep daily precipitation records, and started tracking weekly cores from the snow on the ground last week, 2 samples to date. As of 3/1, with the snow pack settled to 16″ from 22″ the prior week, the snow/ground interface is powder dry, ie. no melting down there yet. I think the bitter cold with little snow cover in late Nov. early Dec. drove the frost unusually deep. I know of one water line that froze at 4′ deep. Interesting that three months later that cold has still kept the warmth of the earth at bay. Snow not only has a high albedo, but is a good insulator as well.
Leif Svalgaard (21:15:26) : “Post again around 2020, when we should know which way the wind blows”. This is the right perspective, Dr. Svalgaard. The problem is that our government is setting policy based on erroneous information. That cannot be in our best interests.
What about NOAA´s warmest decade ever. Not Opine Argue or Answer?
Leif Svalgaard (05:14:43) :
A sensible warmist heart just revealed!
A thought has occured to me about a key issue in climate research and I beleive I could get a good bit of funding for this new theory.
Surveying the research for many years both warmist and skeptical, this winter I’ve had an epiphany. With this being the “warmest winter on record” per the warmers and this now doccumented record snow extent, there is certainly enough observational evidence to further research my theory that the rise of man made CO2 in the atmosphere has increased the freezing point of water by about 5degrees F. This startling realization cleanly merges the results the greenies come out with and the more real world observations that seem more plausable covered here.
I just need a way to make a ton of money with it…. I’ll call the Goreacle to get things started.
With enough grant money and a united cause for saving the planet I’m pretty sure I can get a scientific consensus that the freezing point of water has indeed changed and it’s plainly obvious who caused it.
Emergency Climate Scientist Meeting Called
With the popularity of the latest weather change handle, “climate change”, falling out of favor, an emergency meeting of climate scientists was called today to come up with a new, catchy, handle.
The popular vote went to “cold front”.
@Willis Eschenbach (17:46:17) :
“In fact, the unchanging overall nature of the climate, with only minor up and down natural changes, strongly argues for my hypothesis that the earth has a thermostat.”
Mr. Eschenbach, I agree 100%. Check out the Stefan-Boltzmann law, that’s the thermostat, for the most part, and is enhanced by minor natural changes in the earth’s emissivity. The Earth System is a gray body that differs only from a black body due to earth’s emissivity < 1.0.
A 1.0% global average temperature increase (Kelvin temperature scale) causes the black body radiation to increase by the same amount, but raised to the fourth power, thus the black body radiation increase is 4.06%. If the emissivity of the gray body remains constant during the temperature increase, the % increase in the gray body radiation is the same as for a black body. The reverse holds true for a global temperature decrease, a 1.0% global average temperature decrease is accompanied by a 4.06% decrease in radiation. EM radiation is virtually the only way for the earth system to rid itself of excess heat.
It's interesting that two 19th century scientists discovered and formulated this important natural law of Physics, and over 100 years later, this law is summarily ignored by most of the the warmists, and virtually all of the alarmists.
Joseph Stefan (1835 – 1893). Physicist and mathematician.
Ludwig Boltzmann (1844-1906). Famous mathematician and physicist.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan-Boltzmann_law
HectorK (03:11:03) :
Dr Tony Waterston
Consultant paediatrician and chair of the Advocacy Committee, Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health
“And malaria will be more common as the mosquito which carries it moves into countries which were formerly too cold. Dengue, another severe tropical infectious disease also spread by mosquitoes, will similarly increase. ”
The good doctor begins his sentences with conjunctions and knows nothing about the range of malaria-carrying mosquitos. What an intellect.
James Sexton:
earth shattering
heh, best pun in CAGW in a long while 🙂
Benjamin:
I see no reason in taking Dec-Feb.
Because Dec-Feb is considered to be winter. Read Willis’ and Leif’s posts earlier that point out zero trend in over all yearly snow cover.
You know, I can wrap my head around warmer temperatures mean more snow/rain. Great..northern areas get more snow. But, Watts up with record snowfalls in Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Louisiana (no offense to people that live outside of North America…but this is what I am familiar with)? Florida lost something like 4% of their citrus crop this year to freezing temperatures. Many southern states’ average temperature doesn’t drop below freezing. Here it is, March 3rd, and snowing when average high temps should be approaching 60. Of course I know the answer..this is all just weather and not climate.
Steve Kohane,
Good catch. I meant 40N. We had no Chinooks along the Front Range this year. Normally we get a number of days in the 60s or 70s during January and February.
Joe,
Is there *any* proof that the salmon die off was really caused by global warming and salinity levels as the hand waving suggests?
IMO, and until proven conclusively otherwise, this is no different than the polar bears drownings in the 90’s – an unexplained phenomenon that very well might not be unprecedented. Lets not forget the hundreds (thousands?) of scientists searching the globe for signs of global warming. All they have to do is find a scary short term trend and extrapolate ad absurdum… or point at any spurious/abnormal *seeming* phenomenom and chances are they’ll get their funding again next year.
“ZOMG LOOK BEHIND OUR ICE BREAKER! IT’S GLOBAL WARMING!!!”
Winter snow extent is defined by snow falling at low latitudes. Summer snow extent is defined by snow melting at high latitudes.
The physical processes are opposite and probably unrelated, so it makes little sense to average apples and oranges into a trend.
OT: Jane Ferringo of the U.S. Geological Survey in an interview
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124178690
“RAZ: Give us a sense of how much ice [on the Antarctic peninsula] has been lost over the past, say, 10 years.
Ms. FERRIGNO: I think I’ll go back 20 years, and in the last 20 years, I would say at least 20,000 square kilometers of ice has been lost, and that’s comparable to an area somewhere between the state of Texas and the state of Alaska.
RAZ: So about the size of the state of Texas in terms of ice has been lost in the past 20 years. ”
Texas is a little bigger than that – about 700,000 square kilometers.
Ref – David Ball (06:35:48) :
Leif Svalgaard (21:15:26) :
“Post again around 2020, when we should know which way the wind blows”.
This is the right perspective, Dr. Svalgaard. The problem is that our government is setting policy based on erroneous information. That cannot be in our best interests.
———————-
Policies are “set” based upon what politicians think they can get away with and they only rarely do anything that is in the “best interests” of the people who elected them.
Unless “their people” are burning an effigy of them at their county court house –and their local police and fire department are there to participate in said ‘burning’– they are deaf, dumb, and blind to everything except Their Party Leadership within Their Beltway.
People are “responsible” for their politicians and should never allow them to play in the streets, or go swimming without proper supervision. Politicians are like precocious children whose parents ignore them in public and let them run wild –think about it, they really only upset other folks, not good old Mom and Dad.
NYT – “The agency also found that 2009 was the second warmest year since 1880, when modern temperature measurement began. The warmest year was 2005. The other hottest recorded years have all occurred since 1998, NASA said.”
Apparently Michael Mann doesn’t have exclusive rights to “Hide the decline”, and it’s widely practiced, even by Never-A-Straight-Answer.
And it’s not surprising that the NYT usually takes the warmist posture, after all they are right in the middle of the greatest UHI hot spot (NYC) in New York State.
>> Leif Svalgaard (05:14:43) :
Mick (05:01:51) :
Is our sun the thermostat?
No, it is getting steadily ‘warmer’. Its luminosity increasing about 1% in a hundred million years. <<
The sun also continually loses mass. Because of that, the Earth's orbital semimajor axis must slowly increase. Has anyone calculated the rate of change of the Earth's orbit due to solar mass decrease?
I am pleased to provide a link to an article by Professor Robert Carter, Australia, about Lysenkoism and “AGW-Theory”;
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2010/03/hansenist-climate-alarmism