Global Warming in Texas

Guest post by Steven Goddard

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http://www.dontmesswithtexas.org/

Dallas, Texas broke their all time record snowfall record this week.  How does this compare with earlier Februaries in Texas?  February can be a very warm month in Texas.  San Antonio hit 100 degrees on February 21, 1996. December and January can also be very hot, with San Antonio reaching 90 degrees on Christmas Day 1955 and 89 degrees on January 30, 1971.

Brenham, Texas is a relatively rural area (population 13,500) centrally located between San Antonio, Houston and Dallas.  They have a good temperature record extending back nearly 120 years.  According to USHCN records, Brenham was at least as warm 100 years ago as it is now.

Dublin, Texas is another good rural site west of Dallas (population 3,700)  which also shows no warming over the last 100 years. Note the big drop in temperatures for both sites around 1960.

 

Temple, Texas (near Waco) is more of an Urban Heat Island with a population of 60,000 but still shows a similar pattern.  The UHI effect is clearly visible over the last 30 years.

Do the Urban Heat Islands of Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio show warming?  Absolutely.  Does UHI skew the overall temperature data for Texas? Absolutely.  San Antonio is the seventh largest city in the US.  Houston is the fourth largest city in the US and Dallas is the eighth largest city in the US.

CNN warned yesterday “More Snow Is Coming South”  Alarmists blame this on global warming.  What would they say if it hit 100 degrees this week in February, like it did in 1996?  What do readers think?

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139 thoughts on “Global Warming in Texas

  1. I have lived in Texas all of my life. We have always had droughts, floods, sandstorms and blizzards ( in the Panhandle ). I have fished on a lake on December 24th in a t-shirt. I have hunted in November wearing every piece of warm clothing I owned.
    My point is, except for moving from SW Texas to NE Texas and experiencing a lot more rain, everything is basically the same.
    This past week I saw more snow, 12″, than I ever have in my 61 years here in Texas. The past 9 summers have been reasonably mild, as have the winters. Consequently, we have had fewer tornadoes and hurricanes the past few years.
    I personally hope the weather continues it’s up and down swings. Nothing I , or we can do to change it anyway and it gives us old fogies something to talk about other than politics!

  2. How long will it take to make a simple comparison of rural against urban stations, the writing is on the wall.

  3. Rob, I asked a similar question some time ago. It would be a very useful exercise. I truly believe that climate change temperatures trends should exclude all readings taken from urban and other developed areas such as airports for the simple reason they are poisoned by urban heat island and other man-made factors a they develop and expand over time. It’s obvious to anyone with half a brain that most developed areas have a bias to warmer temperatures that otherwise would not exist if the areas were in their original natural state. So, only naturally located readings should be used.

  4. I wonder how well correlated UHI is with central air conditioning installations…
    I’ll bet that and paving gravel and chipped stone parking areas at the types of locations where the stations have been are extremely well correlated with the observed increases in temperatures, especially at some “rural” sites.
    In fact, I’ll bet you that there’s a pretty decent correlation between El Nino and La Nina adjusted temperture anomalies and 5 year average in asphalt sales in the US.
    I’m just sayin’…

  5. Thank you, Steven Goddard, for keeping the spotlight of public attention focused on Climategate iceberg and the lying scoundrels that have violated the most sacred fundamentals of science.
    I have been an active researcher for 50 years now.
    I can assure you that much, much more filth will come floating to the surface as the Climategate iceberg melts.
    Climatology is not the only science that has been terribly disgraced by consensus “group science.”
    Since the return of Apollo with the first lunar samples in 1969, the same consensus “group science” has taken control of our most prestigious journals (Nature, Science, etc) and research institutions (NAS, NASA, DOE, Cal-tech, Harvard, University of Chicago, University of Bern, etc) and reduced astronomy, astrophysics, planetary science, solar and space sciences, nuclear and particle physics to popular fairy tales.
    Earth’s heat source is not a ball of Hydrogen (H), it is not heated primarily by H-fusion, solar neutrinos do not oscillate away to preserve fairy tales, neutrons repulsion powers the stars and the cosmos, nuclear matter is dissociating rather than fusing together in our vibrant universe, etc., etc.
    Keep up the good work!
    Oliver K. Manuel
    Emeritus Professor of
    Nuclear & Space Sciences
    Former NASA PI for Apollo

  6. Something simple, all stations in towns of 15,000 population, or less. Original data. No “homogenized” data.
    Time to drive a stake into the heart of this vampire, once, and for all.

  7. To me the most interesting feature of the rural datasets is that the recent warming spell fails to achieve the height or duration of the 1930s warming spell.
    One could also argue that being downwind of the Pacific that prticular part of the world is highly sensitive to ENSO / PDO influences and more likely than other locations to give an accurate reflection of the overwhelming oceanic influences on global tropospheric air temperatures.
    Far from being concerned about a warming trend one could fairly argue that in fact there has been a global net downward trend since the first part of the 20th Century but in many locations it has been disguised by or even overridden by UHI effects and misguided warmist ‘adjustments’ in completely the wrong direction.

  8. I suppose that is raw data!? You are not allowed to use that!! Send it to the Hockey Team and you will get back the correct graph. Regards from colder than normal Swiss mountains. Fred

  9. Texas winters are usually enjoyable with clear blue days with temps occasionally in the 70s. The monotony of mild winters is sometimes broken by blue northers where the temperature drops 50 degrees in 30 minutes (accompanied by 50 mile per hour winds). This winter was just dull and grey and cold.
    But one of the things I’ve learned from this site, is we got exactly the winter one would expect in an el nino year. Not climate change, just weather.

  10. Your “clearly visible. 30 year UHI on Waco looks identical to your non-UHI Brenham. Just sayin’.
    OT but is anyone digging for old peer reviews or news about “less snow” to show the double standard? We have the “snowfalls are a thing of the past” and I found stuff from circa 2004 blaming GW for Ski industry troubles due to declining snowfall…..

  11. Nice graphs, Steven. Can we see them with the entire range of temps including the standard deviations? Just wondering if they show the narrowing of the extremes and SD that I’m seeing here.
    My next video should be done today and posted. In there I’m suggesting how future graphs should be displayed. The video covers combining data to fill gaps in records.

  12. In Statistics we meet the notion of the “null hypothesis”, i.e., that the current situation is indistinguishable from the previous situation; the notion that it’s “business as usual”.
    The discipline of Significance Testing asks the following question: “If today is different to yesterday (as it always is to some extent) how sure are we that the change is something qualitatively new as opposed to being within the known and familiar range”. Significance limits may be set at 90%, 95%, 99% or elsewhere, according to circumstances. In layman’s language, we’d say, “It’s less than certain, but it’s good enough for me.”
    I hereby propose a detailed study of the Urban Heat Island Effect. Its null hypothesis would be: “that there is, to 99% significance, no difference between temperatures at the centre of 100,000-population towns and a temperatures at a 10km perimeter.” And then let the facts speak.
    The Gore Brigade have failed to demolish the null hypothesis that temperatures in recent decades are insignificantly different to those of past centuries. The general public continue to believe in this null hypothesis. This is not surprising: beneath the byzantine complexity of Statistical Method lies a solid core of common sense, a quality which sadly disappears in some scientists who place their seat on the gravy train before their professional integrity.

  13. I grew up in Texas and learned one very important thing: don’t go to Galveston without shoes on if you don’t want your feet to burn on the asphalt.

  14. Steven,
    Thanks for this post but you are starting to sound like a broken record……So South East U.S and parts of Europe and Russia are having a cooler than normal winter. Does this disprove GLOBAL warming? Of course not. The vast majority of the world’s land mass (e.g Africa, Australia, South America, Alaska, NW U.S, Canada, the Middle East, Central and South East Asia, Greenland, Antarcitica) —and let’s not forget the world’s oceans– were significantly warmer than normal last month (breaking a new Global Janaury record in the satellite data). http://www.drroyspencer.com/. And who knows, February could break a record as well.
    The fact is that most of the readers to this blog happen to live in the U.S and Europe so think the cooler than normal temperatures in those regions are being felt by everyone else on the planet. I can assure they are not.

  15. As we all know, record high temperatures now outnumber record low temperatures in the US two to one. Global warming amounts to about 0.7°C over the last 50 years, far less than the seasonal temperature range, and far less than the natural variability of the weather, so the records of individual weather stations don’t contradict global warming any more than individual weather events do. The natural variability in the climate system means that only long-term trends over large areas can be used to infer (or contradict) changes in climate, and those trends all show changes consistent with warming (i.e. melting glaciers, climate zones shifting polewards and uphill, declining snow cover etc.)

  16. You know what they say about the weather around here (Houston) – “if you don’t like it, just stick around for a day or two – it’ll change”
    Bit like the climate really……………. it changes

  17. I lived in Austin Texas for three wonderful years. I remember very clearly one winter (either ’83 or ’84) when we had snow (lying on the ground – around 4- 6 inches I think), and ice on the roads. The temperature, as I recall, was down to around 16F. Maybe my memory’s not to good, but it was certainly well below freezing.

  18. Rob, Peter, et al:
    I’m not sure rural vs urban should be a preoccupation. A rural site can show “uhi” effect even though it’s not technically urban. Temple, in the above post, is well out of town in an area I would consider rural. But it’s at a water treatment plant which pretty clearly has some recent construction that may have affected the readings.
    The real mind blower is that MMS shows that Temple was closed December 2, 2003. So where do those last 6 years (with the huge temperature spike) come from?

  19. Speaking of global warming, does anybody know the average temps for Vancouver? Accuweather shows 44F as the average high for this time of year, but the MSM keeps talking about how ‘climate change’ is affecting the games.
    I also caught the bit last night on NBC’s Olympic coverage about how polar bears are endangered and how their numbers are decreasing in Canada.

  20. Peter of Sydney, (04:31:39)
    I just did Google ( Percentage of the world that is uninhabited ) this is what came up,
    Now if it is true, then we need to think very carefully were we place weather recording stations.
    44% of the world is uninhabited
    94.6% of the USA is Rural open space.
    90% of the worlds population lives on 20% of the land mass
    I wonder if the ” Climate modelers” entered, or even calculated on one of the above ? any bets?

  21. kristen,
    The UK Met Office forecast in December that 2010 will be the hottest year ever globally. Right after they made that forecast, the UK plunged into a deep freeze and has not warmed back up yet.
    “The gods, too, are fond of a joke.”
    – Aristotle

  22. OT, but Oliver K. Manuel made some fascinating claims:
    “Earth’s heat source is not a ball of Hydrogen (H), it is not heated primarily by H-fusion, solar neutrinos do not oscillate away to preserve fairy tales, neutrons repulsion powers the stars and the cosmos, nuclear matter is dissociating rather than fusing together in our vibrant universe, etc., etc.”
    Can someone here give me some good links about these ideas? I’d like to read more, in detail.
    Thanks!

  23. Other than 3 1/2 years of college I’ve lived all of my 47 years in Temple. Temple also is showing all the other bad signs of land use changes. Crowding new houses on small lots which results in more runoff. Then the city needs bond elections to try to fix drainage problems. Taking more land for new buildings while existing buildings sit empty. A lot of people in the area live in smaller communities and work in Temple. Those people know that it is warmer in a city than in the country. Too bad politicians and agenda driven scientists don’t have this common sense.

  24. “Alarmists blame this on global warming. What would they say if it hit 100 degrees this week in February, like it did in 1996? What do readers think?”
    I’m fed up with the media bias and propaganda It is unfortunate that UK newspapers seem to be the only ones who will present the facts.
    I think that it sucks, quite frankly.

  25. You think Brenham is a good rural station. Between 1980 and 2008, it shows warming of 0.4 C/decade.
    You think San Antonio is showing UHI. Between 1980 and 2008, it shows warming of 0.44 C/decade.
    So you can’t just eyeball SAT, and decide it’s just UHI.
    Interestingly, the cooling in Brenham from 1900 to 1940 was introduced by the adjustments. The U-shaped curve is *not* in the raw data. Although, to be fair, the raw data post 1980 is also a bit wonky.
    “Does UHI skew the overall temperature data for Texas? Absolutely. ”
    Concluding that will require a bit more work than noting there are a few big cities in Texas, and showing 4 plots (including rural ones) that have recent warming.
    If you don’t like any old stations, there’s been a CRN site in the vicinity at Palestine since 2003. You could see how well it correlates with USHCN stations over that time period.

  26. Facts, schmacks! These are Climate Cultists, the Green Gang of Briffa, Hansen, Jones, Mann, Trenberth et al. that over twenty years from 1988 has stopped at nothing to propagandize their collectivist Statist agenda that bit dust as Climategate last November and as the ultimately corrupt, incompetent IPCC’s “COP15” in Copenhagen.
    Anyone thinking to persuade Warmists by citing objective, rational evidence that AGW is nothing but a cap-and-trade, hyper-politicized con-job, will be sadly disappointed. Gore and his acolytes are in this for the money, not the so-called science. Climatology is not an empirical, experimental exercise, but a classificatory discipline akin to botany, incapable by nature of projecting valid outcomes.
    In fact, in logic, and in law, it is impossible to “prove a negative”. The burden is not on dissenters from Gore’s false consensus to disprove his Green Gang theses, but solely on him and and his peculating academic, media, political enablers to definitively prove them right. Meantime, as Reid/Pelosi-crats waffle and fuss with Barry-O in train, citizen taxpayers will tightly hold the stakes.

  27. Someone posted in the Guardian that LI et al 2004 supports the Jones 1960 china UHI study which shows no significant UHI influence in the global data set.
    Is the Li 2004 study reliable.

  28. I live about 90 miles east of Dallas – I have some great pics of our heaviest snowfall in 30 years. (some locations it was heaviest ever recorded) 9″ at my house.
    I drive in and out of Dallas regularly – the UHI effect is especially noticable about 2 – 3 hours after sundown. When driving through town (it can take up to an hour to get across the metroplex, depending on what interstate you’re on) it is easy to note a fairly constant temperature. I’m using my vehicle thermometer, but absolute accuracy isn’t important – I’m just looking at relative change, which doesn’t depend on calibration. When I get about 10 – 15 miles out of town and into the fields and countryside surrounding the city, I note that the temperature I read will immediately drop by 5 – 6 degrees. Now I’m sure that magnitude of change is because the fields cool off much faster than the concrete and asphalt surfaces do; but isn’t that the entire point of the UHI effect?
    I have replicated this observation many times at different times of year and this range is fairly consistent over time for clear days; heavy rain and other precip events negate it, which isn’t surprising.

  29. Oliver K. Manuel wrote “Climatology is not the only science that has been terribly disgraced by consensus “group science.”
    Since the return of Apollo with the first lunar samples in 1969, the same consensus “group science” has taken control of our most prestigious journals (Nature, Science, etc) and research institutions (NAS, NASA, DOE, Cal-tech, Harvard, University of Chicago, University of Bern, etc) and reduced astronomy, astrophysics, planetary science, solar and space sciences, nuclear and particle physics to popular fairy tales.”

    Great point – group science is an oxymoron. I think the best way to avoid group science is to foster independent learning, and individual (and varied) learning systems. The best way to promulgate group science (or any “group think”) is to make sure education is uniform and all children are taught the same dogmas from the same pulpit.

  30. Is it a sort of mind-set, or just a form of religious weather fanaticism? If it’s too hot, that’s naturally caused by global warming; if it’s too cold, that’s also caused by global warming; if it’s too dry, that’s surely caused by global warming; if it’s too wet, that’s doubtless caused by global warming; if it’s too windy, that’s unquestionably caused by global warming; if it’s too calm … whoa, when can it ever be too calm?
    Oops — maybe it can never be calm enough to suit the politicians on Martha’s Vineyard who adamantly oppose wind farming in Nantucket Sound because that would spoil their pristine views. Maybe all this stuff depends on whose eco-religion is being being schismatized.

  31. I think it would be an interesting exercise to pick the 100 most rural temperature stations and plot the combined change in temperature over the last 100 years. This would provide a raw data base to compare UHI and AGW data manipulation against.

  32. Oliver K. Manuel (04:35:50)
    Since the return of Apollo with the first lunar samples in 1969, the same consensus “group science” has taken control of our most prestigious journals
    Remember the Clock of the end of the world? Who were its promoters?
    I think that it has happened a few years back in the past, when science replaced experimentation (empireia-practice) by speculation and all kinds of nightmarish cosmological theories appeared since then and its discoverers promoted by the MSM as show business stars. In this endeavour humanity missed a lot and was deceived a lot as with the current Climate-Gate.

  33. They way I’d do an UHI in the temperature record analysis.
    1) Pick 100 stations at random.
    2) Throw away any obviously low quality records.
    3) Use the raw data for trend analysis.
    4) See how well these trends correlate with various factors.

  34. Even rural stations have to be carefully vetted. Look at the significant UHI effect Hinkel found at little Barrow, AK.

  35. I lived near Dublin during the summer of 1980. During that time we had a record heat wave with 45 consecutive days over 100 degrees. There doesn’t seem to be a corresponding temperature increase on the chart for June/July of 1980.

  36. The only one with a more upward trend is the one at, you guessed it, at the airport!
    Is this one of those suspect sites in and around airports that Anthony talks about?
    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  37. imapopulistnow (07:17:10) :
    > “I think it would be an interesting exercise to pick the 100 most rural temperature stations and plot the combined change in temperature over the last 100 years. This would provide a raw data base to compare UHI and AGW data manipulation against.”
    It’s been done a few times. Most notably in “Global rural temperature trends”, Peterson et al, GRL 26: 329-332 (1999)

  38. I went into basic training 7 Dec 1978. I’m from Phoenix. I thought San Antonio, that’s desert right. I froze my ~ off! Went below zero Christmas eve. Looking at the chart, I guess I chose the wrong year to join the service 🙂

  39. Re: Oliver K. Manuel (Feb 16 04:35),
    Since the return of Apollo with the first lunar samples in 1969, the same consensus “group science” has taken control of our most prestigious journals (Nature, Science, etc) and research institutions (NAS, NASA, DOE, Cal-tech, Harvard, University of Chicago, University of Bern, etc) and reduced astronomy, astrophysics, planetary science, solar and space sciences, nuclear and particle physics to popular fairy tales.
    I take great exception to this blanket statement of yours.
    It certainly is not true in my field, particle physics, which in my 40 year experience I saw changing views and research directions several times.
    Climatology is in this state because of the corruption of the money and the power politics behind it. If politicians had not climbed on the band wagon this AGW would have been a scientific fad, and they exist, that would be overturned by better data and theories without spreading misery to the world. No other scientifice discipline has been preempted like that ( except nuclear physics during WWII for the creation of the bomb).
    Certainly some science is popularized, and it should be, but to call it fairy tales is beyond the pale.
    You do not sound very reasonable:
    Earth’s heat source is not a ball of Hydrogen (H), it is not heated primarily by H-fusion, solar neutrinos do not oscillate away to preserve fairy tales, neutrons repulsion powers the stars and the cosmos, nuclear matter is dissociating rather than fusing together in our vibrant universe, etc., etc.
    That neutrinos oscillate I know for sure, and the errors are not climatology errors and the scrutiny of the data was intense. Judging from this the value I give to this paragraph of yours is very low.
    I can state with Terry Pratchett that the earth is a disk riding on four elephants which ride on a turtle and the sun is a ball of flame going around them and the elephants lift up their legs for the sun and moon to go by without colliding with them. Lovely books where light has such low velocity that it pours down the mountains.
    So are you peddling science fiction ?

  40. CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES [WINTERS ONLY] 1962-1989 LAST COOL SPELL
    Total number of winters 28
    Number of winters below norm 18 or 64 %
    Number of winters where AMO is negative 24 or 86%
    Number of winters AO is negative 20 or 71%
    Number of winters where PDO is negative 16 or 57 %
    Number of winters NAO is negative 13 or 46 %
    So you can see that if the next 20-30 year climate cycle will be cool again, Texas will likely have cooler winters once this current El Nino passes by mid year. Next winter could be colder with no El Nino to warm things, because the AO, AMO, PDO and NAO may all be in the cool phases most of the time during the next few decades especially AO and AMO and PDO.

  41. I have a great hypothesis. There has been a terrible mistake about carbon, it is dioxide that is the problem. I have computer models that prove that dioxide is warming the planet, or maybe cooling the planet, but whatever it is, let’s ban dioxide. Sorry, I am feeling a bit faint, but let’s go green, ban dioxide, er, why can’t I breathe, help?

  42. Icarus (06:03:46) :
    MJK (06:03:08) :
    You can quote your Global Temperatures as much as you like, when the ACTUAL temperatures from real stations all over the world are looked at they show no SIGNIFICANT global warming.
    As to Satellite temperatures, they do not even reflect reallity, showing Hot Spots in the Northern Hemisphere where there is Currently Ice & Snow with some of the lowest temperatures ever recorded. That one hasn’t been looked at yet as we they don’t release the Raw data.
    Antarctica is warming, since when?

  43. I have often wondered about the effects of Air conditioning is having on UHI but now with the advent of the Heat Pump I must also wonder if there will also be a lowering of the day time max during the winter months in the urban areas for the same reason air conditioning might in the summer. I also must wonder what effect several billion 800 to 1000 watts street lamps might have on the temperature lows during the night time hours. there are so many man made possibilities that can effect the temperature. The only effect that CO2 might have to this is that it takes energy to operate or power these things. What little man has to do with the “normal” temperatures isn’t the amount of CO2 emitted but the amount of energy produced and consumed. Our production methods and consumptions methods could be very much improved and possibly will be in the near future relatively speaking. GHG isn’t what is causing the heat, it is what moderates the temperature to within a variable spectrum making our climate livable. We should be more worried about adaptation to the variability in climate than in the control of the climate. Adaptation to world wide climate we can do. Control of world wide climate we can not. I can at present control the temperature range in my home to a comfortable level in my home. I can’t control the temperature level in my community outside my home to a comfortable level. I Wonder what makes these climate gurus think that we can control the temperature to a “comfortable” level world wide. Adaptation is the way to go. To bad that we are going to have to spend time and resources to disprove a hypothesis that can’t be validated.
    Bill Derryberry

  44. wws,
    I used to live in Spring, Texas just north of Houston. We would often have frost in the morning when downtown Houston was in the fifties.
    I also remember driving south from Phoenix, Arizona on I-10 one night in July, 1985. Temperature in Phoenix was close to 100 degrees and 20 miles south (same elevation) was in the 70s.

  45. Icarus,
    The claim that record high temperatures are twice as frequent as record low temperatures is bogus. It is an artifact of the fact that the total number of record temperatures (both high and low) was very small during the year when the study was made. The ratio of two small numbers in a series with a large standard deviation is meaningless.

  46. anna v @ 7:47:49 Wow, did you just reveal your ignorance. Everyone knows the world is supported on the backs of a series of turtles and it’s turtles all the way down.
    =============================

  47. Sorry about the last post, it was a mere error based on an interview given by an ageing hippie living in a tent in the Himalayas, it will not happen again, I am an expert and can’t be expected to check every apocalyptic scenario I advise world leaders to accept as gold-plated science. Not to worry, I have discovered the real enemy. It is Di-Hydrogen Monoxide, that is the killer and the real greenhouse gas. Give me some (more) funding and I will prove it. Ban di-hydrogen monoxide, save us. Em, I need some di-hydrogen monoxide free beer. Anyone got some?

  48. The way I’d do the temperature record analysis:
    1) Construct a global synthetic temperature field covering 100+ years with known time variation
    2) Add known (time-varying) amounts of UHI at the positions of urban centres
    3) Add known amounts of measurement noise
    4) Use the coordinates and timespans of GHCN stations as sampling points on this synthetic “raw” temperature field. Apply the GHCN processng algorithms as normal.
    5) See if the temperature trend you get out matches what you know you put in. For extra credit, simulate the effects of microsite effects, site relocations and instrumental response functions.

  49. E.M.Smith now tell us about “Zombie thermometers”:
    Zombie Thermometers – Return of The Un-Dead
    In looking for what thermometers died in 2010, I discovered that there are Zombie Thermometers. They appear to be alive in some years, but sometimes are unresponsive and give no data. They can be dropped from the GHCN v2.mean data file (silently) as though they have died. Gone and buried. Not even giving a ‘missing data flag’ to show they are alive.

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/
    This is another confirmation of the misconduct, to say the least, of all those “scientists”, all over the world, connected to the CRU Climate Gate Web, as shown in the Climate Gate emails’ addresses and names, who made disappear all thermometers readings from cold places, as the ones located at the Sierras, in north and south america and other places, with the fraudulent purpose of deceiving, liying, cheating, by telling the known tale of the “hottest season ever”.

  50. Russ in Texas (07:33:56) :
    “I lived near Dublin during the summer of 1980. During that time we had a record heat wave with 45 consecutive days over 100 degrees. There doesn’t seem to be a corresponding temperature increase on the chart for June/July of 1980.”
    It is annual mean temperature. Look at 1979 and 1981. The average mean is much lower than 1980. Those 45 days out of 365 did result in an increase for 1980.

  51. Steve Goddard (08:01:31) :
    Steven, I think the link to the global map you provide supports my point very nicely. The areas of red/yellow (warm) significantly out weigh the areas of blue (cooler). It shows precisely why we had the global record in January despite the cool spots in SE U.S, Europe and Russia. P.S you might want to look up a defintion of Central Asia- the region is covered in red/yellow (i.e warmer than normal).
    http://www.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/tlt/medium/global/ch_tlt_2010_01_anom_v03_2.png

  52. Rebivore – the weather you remember was Dec ’83 – Jan ’84. North and East Texas stayed below freezing constantly for 2 weeks, which had *never* happened before or since. Gardeners will not that it wiped out almost all of the Zone 8 plants in Texas and it took about 15 years for people to start planting them again. (palms, semi-tropical stuff, etc)
    I remember it well since I had just bought an old Victorian house to redo with inadequate heating and no insulation. I had to retreat to the core 3 rooms which were I could keep warm; the back, distant bathroom developed a long icicle from the shower head and I couldn’t get enough heat back there to thaw it out for 2 weeks. And I spent a lot of time in those weeks crawling under the house with heating cords trying to keep what liitle plumbing that was still working thawed out.
    Ah yes, good times. Okay, not really.

  53. Using the logic that the MWP was not a “global phenomenon”, because only the northern hemisphere provides enough evidence but not enough from the southern, so why then doesn’t a cold northern hemisphere suggest likewise that the present warming is indeed not global. There seems at least many holes in the CO2 blanket that “insulates the earth”. It also seems the alarmist like to subjectively homogenize data.

  54. “So where do those last 6 years (with the huge temperature spike) come from?”
    Didn’t intend this as a rhetorical question. Presumeably the last (make it 5) years were filled in from another station. Is there any way of knowing which one?

  55. MJK,
    We are having an El Nino, so most of the Pacific is above normal.
    I was arguing your assertion “The vast majority of the world’s land mass is significantly above normal.” That isn’t true. The land temperature average was heavily skewed by Greenland and Canada, but that does not provide any information about the distribution.

  56. anna v (07:47:49) :
    I can state with Terry Pratchett that the earth is a disk riding on four elephants which ride on a turtle and the sun is a ball of flame going around them and the elephants lift up their legs for the sun and moon to go by without colliding with them. Lovely books where light has such low velocity that it pours down the mountains.
    So are you peddling science fiction ?

    Speaking personally from Houston, where the summers don’t seem quite as hot as they were 25 years ago, I just don’t think Terry Pratchett is a reliable source. In fact, it is my belief that Terry Pratchett makes up some of the stuff in his books.

  57. Jim Steele (08:45:00) :
    “Using the logic that the MWP was not a “global phenomenon”, because only the northern hemisphere provides enough evidence but not enough from the southern, so why then doesn’t a cold northern hemisphere suggest likewise that the present warming is indeed not global.”
    January relative warmth is considered global simply because it shows up in the global mean. Likewise, the MWP would be considered global if it shows up in the global mean. In neither case is it required that the temperature anomaly be actually uniform throughout the Earth.
    But fixating on a single January is missing the point. A single January is weather, not climate. The real story is in the trends. The trend is for warming everywhere on Earth except for a part of Antarctica and a couple patches of ocean. If you take a snapshot of the Earth at any given moment, you will definitely find some cold spots, but even in those spots, if you look over time, you’ll see a general (but noisy) warming trend.

  58. Jim Steele (08:45:00) :
    Using the logic that the MWP was not a “global phenomenon”, because only the northern hemisphere provides enough evidence but not enough from the southern, so why then doesn’t a cold northern hemisphere suggest likewise that the present warming is indeed not global

    It was global:
    The known argentinian geologist Miguel Gonzales, in his studies in the “Salinas del bebedero”, a salt lake in Argentina, found that this salt lake filled with water during solar minimums, which is confirmed by historical records.
    This phenomenon will repeat in any moment, during the current minimum, so we can go down there and watch it.
    http://www.springerlink.com/content/m11m129238u61484/

  59. By the way, Brenham is the home of Blue Bell Ice Cream, one of the most popular brands in Texas. I don’t know how big their facility is, but clearly they would require a great deal of refrigeration equipment that could contribute to a mini-UHI. Would be interesting to see where the weather station is sited relative to their plant.

  60. MJK (08:37:54) :
    Don’t you see anything wrong with that Colourful view of the so called temperatures, like China, which had record snow and very low temps in January?
    How about North East America, also with lot’s of snow and near record temps?
    Don’t you find any problem with Satellite views and reality?
    Perhaps the Base for the Anomaly is using a shifting scale to show those colours.
    Where is the Raw data, ask DR Spencer?

  61. juanslayton (08:46:14) :
    “So where do those last 6 years (with the huge temperature spike) come from?”
    Didn’t intend this as a rhetorical question. Presumeably the last (make it 5) years were filled in from another station. Is there any way of knowing which one?
    Maybe they used readings from the Temple airport? Not large but they have added hangers, new terminal and extended the runways. And getting ready to lengthen the runway again. I know the local paper used to get weather readings from the airport until a couple of years ago. There were questions about the accuracy of the rain measurements. I wonder how much hotter the airport is when the airshow is going on in May? Hundreds of cars parked on the grass fields, explosions from the Tora, Tora, Tora reenactment, vendors selling roast turkey drumsticks, kettle corn, funnel cakes, etc.

  62. Steven Goddard, thanks for precise, individual examples of climate change/no change (and if these familiar oscillations continue we on Earth will be most fortunate). Your explanation of temps in Texas help all readers to see and understand the experimental proof (if our instruments are well sited and well regulated) necessary to assess global warming/cooling.
    Anna v and Kim, I like “This is Turtle Island”.

  63. Steve Goddard (08:54:29) :
    Steve,
    If you re-examined your map, it is very clear that my claim about the majority of the world’s land mass being significantly above normal is accurate as well. In addition to Canada/Greenland,–Northern Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Western Australia were also well above normal.

  64. I like those four graphs. I can comprehend their minor drawbacks and then place some faith in each one of them. The biggest drawback other than the tricky UHI factor is that they are mean averages which can be very misleading. If we now take the mean temperature for Brenham on any given day and combine this with the mean temperature for, say, the Antarctic Peninsular, on the same day, then what I have then is not a fact in the mathematical sense, but a non integer detached from all reality. Proceed from there around the world, and, given the very best of data, I am left to wonder whether there is any justification for attempting statistical analysis of the resulting figure.
    It seems to me that climate scientists are giving the statistical system more credit than it deserves.

  65. Steve Goddard (08:54:29) :
    MJK,
    We are having an El Nino,

    Anomalies didn’t reach el Nino original birth place (SA west coasts) so it is an Aussie Nino who probably will flood australia when temperatures low so as all that humidity to condense..(march, april, may)
    http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
    .

  66. This one JonesII (09:21:05) has no meaning without this posted before:
    JonesII (09:13:49) : Your comment is awaiting moderation

  67. I’m not in favor of dropping UHI measurements, for the people living there, that is the temperature they’re experiencing, that is their weather.
    If someone is trying to map anomalies in global temperature, then only rural temperatures should be used, or sites far enough (how far is that he asked?) from the urban center to be nearly rural (yeah, I know, nebulous concept).
    As has been pointed out before, when you ride a motorcycle, you are very sensitive to local temperatures. Driving on 56th Street in Phoenix/Scottsdale in the 60s, could run you from pleasant, to chilly, to pleasant in the space of a few yards as you passed through an orange orchard. Closer to Camelback Road, the temperature could even reach hot, as the mountain re-radiated its daily accumulation of energy.
    Don’t hide the UHI, it may cause people to rethink how they treat green spaces, I’m all for pleasant if I can have it.

  68. Quote: Jerry (06:33:48) :
    OT, but Oliver K. Manuel made some fascinating claims:
    “Earth’s heat source is not a ball of Hydrogen (H), it is not heated primarily by H-fusion, solar neutrinos do not oscillate away to preserve fairy tales, neutrons repulsion powers the stars and the cosmos, nuclear matter is dissociating rather than fusing together in our vibrant universe, etc., etc.”
    Can someone here give me some good links about these ideas? I’d like to read more, in detail.
    Thanks!
    – – – – – – – – –
    Reply to Jerry:
    1. Go to my research profile, with links to several papers: http://myprofile.cos.com/manuelo09
    2. Join the discussion about neutron repulsion:
    http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/neutron_repulsion/join or
    mailto:neutron_repulsion-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
    3. Read the recent paper and backtrack the references:
    “Earth’s Heat Source-The Sun”, Energy and Environment 20 (2009) 131-144
    http://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.0704

  69. Texas is taking the EPA to court over it’s CO2 Endangerment finding. Seems like everyone is piling on Lisa lately. ;D
    From: http://governor.state.tx.us/news/press-release/14253/
    AUSTIN – Gov. Rick Perry, Attorney General Greg Abbott and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples today announced that the state is taking legal action in the U.S. Court of Appeals challenging the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) endangerment finding for greenhouse gases.
    “Texas is aggressively seeking its future in alternative energy through incentives and innovation, not mandates and overreaching regulation,” Gov. Perry said. “The EPA’s misguided plan paints a big target on the backs of Texas agriculture and energy producers and the hundreds of thousands of Texans they employ. This legal action is being taken to protect the Texas economy and the jobs that go with it, as well as defend Texas’ freedom to continue our successful environmental strategies free from federal overreach.”
    The state has filed a Petition for Review with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, and will also file a Petition for Reconsideration with the Environmental Protection Agency, asking the administrator to review her decision. The state’s legal action indicates EPA’s Endangerment Finding is legally unsupported because the agency outsourced its scientific assessment to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has been discredited by evidence of key scientists’ lack of objectivity, coordinated efforts to hide flaws in their research, attempts to keep contravening evidence out of IPCC reports and violation of freedom of information laws.

  70. Quote: L Lucy (07:06:28) :
    “Great point – group science is an oxymoron. I think the best way to avoid group science is to foster independent learning, and individual (and varied) learning systems. The best way to promulgate group science (or any “group think”) is to make sure education is uniform and all children are taught the same dogmas from the same pulpit.”
    – – – –
    Reply to Lucy:
    I agree. But the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the research agencies that they control (NASA, DOE, NSF, etc) always seek to advance their funding.
    That means that NASA, DOE, etc want good Public Relations (PR) so they will get more funding next year!
    When the first lunar samples were analyzed, one scientist reported that an unknown process was making Krypton-78 (the lightest isotope of element #36) on the Moon.
    NASA really liked that story. Think how many members of the public had read in comic books about Superman being vulnerable to Kryptonite!
    “Mysterious Krypton being manufactured on the Moon” – What a story!
    We now know that mass fractionation in the Sun enriches the lightweight isotopes of Krypton and other elements that are implanted in lunar samples by the solar wind, as shown by these 1972 measurements on the isotopes of Krypton and Xenon in lunar soil sample #15601.64:
    http://www.omatumr.com/Data/1972Data1.htm
    Solar mass fractionation only changes the abundances of these heavy elements by a few percent per mass unit (e.g. ~3.5% per mass unit across the nine stable isotopes of Xenon).
    That same mass fractionation increases the H/Fe (Hydrogen:Iron) ratio at the surface of the Sun by a factor of ~100,000,0000!

  71. MJK,
    If you looked at an equal area projection centered over Asia you would see that there are about equal areas of land “significantly” above and below normal. Russia is a huge country. You also don’t see Antarctica because RSS doesn’t include it.

  72. Steve Goddard (11:10:07) :
    Dr Roy Spencer’s satellite temperature map for january shows Antarctica, and it showed above normal. http://www.drroyspencer.com/. I agree that Russia is a large area but so are the many other areas I mentioned in earlier posts.

  73. re – Mike C in NS (10:58:04) :
    From the “Peter and his Dad” video, where they compared Rural vs Urban sites within in the US:
    Global Warming US Cities Getting Warmer

    In the study, rural sites are within 100 km of the urban site.
    They chose these sites in Texas
    R Boerne 29.8 N 98.7 W 425722530080 rural area
    U San Antonio/I 29.5 N 98.5 W 425722530000 1,324,000
    Both sites have continuous data for 1904 to 2006, with no gaps, per GISS. Here are my spreadsheet calculations for these two sites.
    Average Annual Temp Deg C for 1904 to 2006
    Boerne ________________18.6
    San Antonia/I__________20.0
    Difference______________1.4
    Linear trend Deg C per 100 yrs
    Boerne ________________-0.33
    San Antonia/I___________ 1.22
    Trend of deltas__________1.55
    Looking at the data-
    The temperature differences are at least 1 DegC higher at Urban “San Antonia/I” every year after 1943.
    By 1984 the annual temperature differences have grown to about 2 DegC, and continue to average 2 degrees difference for the 23 years 1984 through 2006.

  74. Mike McMillan (09:11:23) :
    …I just don’t think Terry Pratchett is a reliable source. In fact, it is my belief that Terry Pratchett makes up some of the stuff in his books.

    Now hold on there. Terry Pratchett lives in Wiltshire, the same county as I do. I can assure you that we are not in the habit of making things up and then publishing them. We are a very long way away from East Anglia – we leave it to them in that university to do things like that.

  75. As of last night the forecast was for a series of storms to come ashore in California next week with Accuweather calling for rain nearly every day next week. So the potential for storms across the rest of the US is definitely there. Next week will be interesting.

  76. anna v (07:47:49) quotes Oliver K. Manuel (Feb 16 04:35):
    “Since the return of Apollo with the first lunar samples in 1969, the same consensus “group science” has taken control of our most prestigious journals (Nature, Science, etc) and research institutions (NAS, NASA, DOE, Cal-tech, Harvard, University of Chicago, University of Bern, etc) and reduced astronomy, astrophysics, planetary science, solar and space sciences, nuclear and particle physics to popular fairy tales.”
    OM : The above is factually correct. I should have also included our most trusted news media – BBC, CBS, PBS, NBC, etc.
    – – – – – –
    av: “I take great exception to this blanket statement of yours. It certainly is not true in my field, particle physics, which in my 40 year experience I saw changing views and research directions several times. . . .
    OM: You worked in particle physics? Did you publish any papers? Please provide a link to your research profile.
    – – – – – –
    av: Certainly some science is popularized, and it should be, but to call it fairy tales is beyond the pale.
    OM: A spade is a darn shovel: Modern astronomy, astrophysics, cosmology, etc. are fairy tales.
    There is not a ball of Hydrogen anywhere in the universe, but this lightest of all elements covers the surfaces of almost all of them.
    Wake up!
    – – – – – –
    av: You do not sound very reasonable:
    OM: You do?
    – – – – – –
    av quotes OM: “Earth’s heat source is not a ball of Hydrogen (H), it is not heated primarily by H-fusion, solar neutrinos do not oscillate away to preserve fairy tales, neutrons repulsion powers the stars and the cosmos, nuclear matter is dissociating rather than fusing together in our vibrant universe, etc., etc.”
    OM: That is what the data tell us.
    – – – – – –
    av: That neutrinos oscillate I know for sure, and the errors are not climatology errors and the scrutiny of the data was intense.
    OM: What detectors did you use to independently conclude that “neutrinos oscillate I know for sure”?
    I made a few measurements on double beta decay, a very slow decay process that produces two neutrinos (v):
    (A,Z) => (A, Z ± 2) + 2 e + 2 v
    Our measurements confirmed that basic conservations laws are preserved for these neutrino producing events over time periods up to ~10^24 years [Nuclear Physics A453 (1986) 26-44; Nuclear Physics A457 (1986) 285; Nuclear Physics A 481 (1988) 477-483; Journal of Physics G: Nuclear and Particle Physics 17, S221-S229 (1991); Nuclear Physics A529 (1991) 29-38].
    And you claim to have independent evidence neutrinos oscillate away before they can travel from the core of the Sun to the neutrino−detectors here on Earth?
    – – – – – –
    av: Judging from this the value I give to this paragraph of yours is very low.
    OM: I will await information on your neutrino detector.
    – – – – – –
    av: I can state with Terry Pratchett that the earth is a disk riding on four elephants which ride on a turtle and the sun is a ball of flame going around them and the elephants lift up their legs for the sun and moon to go by without colliding with them. Lovely books where light has such low velocity that it pours down the mountains.
    OM: You just did.
    – – – – – –
    av: So are you peddling science fiction ?
    OM: No, you’ve got that market cornered.
    – – – – – –
    I look forward to details of you neutrino measurements.
    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel
    Emeritus Professor of
    Nuclear & Space Studies
    Former NASA PI for Apollo

  77. Can someone please inform me as to the current status of those former poster children of the AGW fraternity: those migrating armadillos?
    Are they still heading north across the Mexican border? Have they returned south? Or are they staying put and hibernating? Their meanderings fell-off the world’s news media radar when the much sexier polar bears turned up. As a Concerned Citizen I would like an update.

  78. MJK,
    As has been mentioned there is an El Nino, thus temps are warmer. This produced a record setting January (for the short time range over which we have satellite records). So what does this have to do with climate or CO2? El Nino is a naturally varying cycle which causes changes in weather patterns.
    I think you have missed the point of the article. Look at the last paragraph, “CNN warned yesterday ‘More Snow Is Coming South’ Alarmists blame this on global warming. What would they say if it hit 100 degrees this week in February, like it did in 1996? What do readers think?”
    The point, I think, is this: Lots of snow is not a result expected from Global Warming.

  79. Dave in Delaware (11:47:16) :
    “By 1984 the annual temperature differences have grown to about 2 DegC, and continue to average 2 degrees difference for the 23 years 1984 through 2006.”
    That tells you that the two stations have similar trends over that time period. Absolute temperatures are not important here; trends are. If UHI causes a steady offset of 2 C over the period of interest, then UHI is not important to the analysis over that period.
    The relevant slopes are during the period of purported warming. I’ll go 1980 to current, in USHCN data (not GISS; these stations stop in 2006 in GISS)
    Linear trend, Raw, deg C/decade
    Boerne +0.27
    San Antonio Airport +0.30
    Linear trend, adjusted, deg C/decade
    Boerne +0.28
    San Antonio Airport +0.44
    If you were thinking Boerne was a good UHI-less station, then there was real warming there in the last ~30 years. It’s there in the raw data, it’s there in the adjusted data.
    San Antonio Airport shows a similar trend in the raw data, and a bit stronger in the adjusted. Go figure, but it can happen. I’d have to check how much of that was TOB, and how much of it was homogenisation.

  80. Re: Oliver K. Manuel (Feb 16 12:06),
    For my own reasons I do not want to use my full identity on these open boards.
    Yes, I have many publications in particle physics, (you do not have to believe me though) but not in neutrino oscillations. My last experiment with neutrinos was back in the 1980s and neutrino oscillations are new.
    For those interested, evidence for neutrino oscillations is summarized in the talk below:
    http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1114392/files/p159.pdf
    Paragraph 4 discusses data, and there are reactor neutrino data and accelerator neutrino data that do show oscillations. ( in addition to solar neutrino with all the sun model assumptions).

  81. The AGW fabulists have completely misused the term “climate”, and attempting to claim that “climate” and “weather” are entirely different things is preposterous. Climate is defined by no more than a collection or series of weather events. The cry that a few local warm weather events in other parts of the world offsets the reasonably measured cold weather events across widespread areas in the US, Europe and Asia beggers belief. So exactly how many temperature stations are monitored in Asia or China, or South America or Africa? Using highly localized warm weather events at a few points across the planet to ballyhoo their fabulist beliefs and then crying foul when measured widespread cold weather events across the US and Europe are cited is the height of arrogance.
    The lack of world wide temperature measuring stations, and lack of assurance of even quality control at the few temperature measuring stations there are in other parts of the world demonstrates that it is no more than dogma the AGW fabulists are spouting.
    Anthony has well demonstrated that our own temperature measuring stations measure other than the general or “average” temperature of the air in many instances, beyond the immediate extremely local area of the measuring stations, and there has been no generally accepted methodology of making all of the “adjustments” to the raw temperate data that these fabulists have been making.

  82. Simple.
    Cold weather means global warning.
    Hot weather means global warming.
    Next question?
    Answer – global warming.
    Ug!

  83. carrot eater (09:13:44) :
    Jim Steele (08:45:00) :
    “Using the logic that the MWP was not a “global phenomenon”, because only the northern hemisphere provides enough evidence but not enough from the southern, so why then doesn’t a cold northern hemisphere suggest likewise that the present warming is indeed not global.”
    January relative warmth is considered global simply because it shows up in the global mean. Likewise, the MWP would be considered global if it shows up in the global mean.

    As Jones II points out, the MWP was global. Here are some studies from an earlier post here at WUWT:
    Canada:
    Five thousand years of sediment transfer in a high arctic watershed recorded in annually laminated sediments from Lower Murray Lake, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada
    Cook, T.L., Bradley, R.S., Stoner, J.S. and Francus, P. 2009; Journal of Paleolimnology 41: 77-94
    “Recent temperatures were the warmest since the fourteenth century, but similar conditions existed intermittently during the period spanning ~4000–1000 varve years ago.”
    http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/cook2008.pdf
    Data – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/metadata/noaa-lake-6195.html
    Summer temperatures in the Canadian Rockies during the last millennium: a revised record
    Luckman, B.H. and Wilson, R.J.S. 2005; Climate Dynamics 24: 131-144
    “The reconstruction shows warm intervals, comparable to twentieth century values, for the first half of the eleventh century, the late 1300s and early 1400s.”
    “In fact, 1434 (1.69°C) showed the warmest reconstructed summer, followed by 1967 (1.46°C) and 1936 (1.45°C).”
    http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/rwilson6/Publications/LuckmanandWilson2005.pdf
    South America:
    A quantitative high-resolution summer temperature reconstruction based on sedimentary pigments from Laguna Aculeo, central Chile, back to AD 850.
    von Gunten, L., Grosjean, M., Rein, B., Urrutia, R. and Appleby, P. 2009.; The Holocene 19: 873-881
    “Our data provide quantitative evidence for the presence of a Medieval Climate Anomaly(in this case, warm summers between AD 1150 and 1350; T = +0.27 to +0.37°C with respect to (wrt) twentieth century)…”
    http://www.geography.unibe.ch/lenya/giub/live/research/see/publikationen/articles/Von-Gunten-et-al_2009_HOL_summer-T-Aculeo.pdf
    Tropical glacier and ice core evidence of climate change on annual to millennial time scales
    Thompson, L.G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, M.E., Lin, P.-N., Henderson, K. and Mashiotta, T.A. 2003; Climatic Change 59: 137-155
    “This composite δ18Oice record shows enriched δ18Oice from 1140 to 1250 AD, possibly reflecting the ‘Medieval Warm Period’…”
    http://bprc.osu.edu/Icecore/Thompsonetal-climatic-change-2003.pdf
    Africa:
    A preliminary 3000-year regional temperature reconstruction for South Africa
    Holmgren, K., Tyson, P.D., Moberg, A. and Svanered, O. 2001; South African Journal of Science 97: 49-51
    Medieval warming with a maximum at around AD 1500 and a pronounced warm episode around 100 BC were prominent features of the record.”
    http://www.sabinet.co.za/abstracts/sajsci/sajsci_v97_n1_2_a12.xml
    The Little Ice Age and medieval warming in South Africa
    Tyson, P.D., Karlen, W., Holmgren, K. and Heiss, G.A. 2000; South African Journal of Science 96: 121-126
    “The climate of the interior of South Africa was around 1oC cooler in the Little Ice Age and may have been over 3°C higher than at present during the extremes of the medieval warm period.”
    http://home.arcor.de/gheiss/Personal/Abstracts/SAJS2000_Abstr.html
    China:
    Alkenone-based reconstruction of late-Holocene surface temperature and salinity changes in Lake Qinghai, China
    Liu, Z., Henderson, A.C.G. and Huang, Y. 2006; Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10.1029/2006GL026151
    “Oscillating warm and cold periods could be related to the 20th century warm period, the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, and the Roman Warm Period.”
    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL026151.shtml
    Climate variability in central China over the last 1270 years revealed by high-resolution stalagmite records
    Paulsen, D.E., Li, H.-C. and Ku, T.-L. 2003; Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 691-701
    “The changes include those corresponding to the Medieval Warm Period Little Ice Age and 20th-century warming lending support to the global extent of these events.”
    http://www.barlang.hu/pages/science/angol/QSR2003_691.pdf
    New Zealand and Indonesia:
    Short-term climate change and New Zealand temperatures during the last millennium
    Wilson, A.T., Hendy, C.H. and Reynolds, C.P. 1979; Nature 279: 315-317
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v279/n5711/abs/279315a0.html
    Climate and hydrographic variability in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the last millennium.
    Newton, A., Thunell, R. and Stott, L. 2006; Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10.1029/2006GL027234
    The warmest temperatures and highest salinities occurred during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP)…”
    http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/MiyaharaHiroko08-d/NewtonThunellStott06-ITCZsouthLIA.pdf
    Data – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/newton2006/newton2006.html
    Greenland:
    Oxygen isotope and palaeotemperature records from six Greenland ice-core stations: Camp Century
    ohnsen, S.J., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N., Steffensen, J.P., Clausen, H.B., Miller, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Sveinbjörnsdottir, A.E. and White, J. 2001; Journal of Quaternary Science 16: 299-307
    http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/82002932/abstract
    Holocene environmental variability in southern Greenland inferred from lake sediments
    Kaplan, M.R., Wolfe, A.P. and Miller, G.H. 2002; Quaternary Research 58: 149-159
    “Intervals of ameliorated limnological conditions occurred between 1300 and 900 and between 500 and 280 cal yr B.P., briefly interrupting the decreasing trend in productivity that culminated in the Little Ice Age. Increased lake productivity during the latter half of the 20th century, which reflects the limnological response to circum-arctic warming, still has not reached peak Holocene values.”
    http://faculty.eas.ualberta.ca/wolfe/eprints/Kaplan%20et%20al%20QR%202002.pdf
    Russia:
    800-yr-long records of annual air temperature and precipitation over southern Siberia inferred from Teletskoye Lake sediments
    Kalugin, I., Daryin, A., Smolyaninova, L., Andreev, A., Diekmann, B. and Khlystov, O. 2007; Quaternary Research 67: 400-410
    “Comparison of these reconstructed Siberian records with the annual record of air temperature for the Northern Hemisphere shows similar trends in climatic variability over the past 800 yr.”
    http://epic.awi.de/Publications/Kal2006a.pdf
    Environmental changes in the northern Altai during the last millennium documented in Lake Teletskoye pollen record
    Andreev, A.A., Pierau, R., Kalugin, I.A., Daryin, A.V., Smolyaninova, L.G. and Diekmann, B. 2007; Quaternary Research 67: 394-399
    Around AD 1200, regional climate became warmer and more humid than present, as revealed by an increase of Siberian pine and decreases of dry herb taxa and charcoal contents.”
    http://epic.awi.de/Publications/And2005g.pdf
    Antarctica:
    Oxygen-isotope (δ18O) evidence of Holocene hydrological changes at Signy Island, maritime Antarctica
    Noon, P.E., Leng, M.J. and Jones, V.J. 2003; The Holocene 13: 251-263
    “Strong similarities with other Holocene proxy records from the Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula Region are apparent, including the mid-Holocene climate optimum followed by the Neoglacial and, most recently, late twentieth-century climatic warming.”
    http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=14975253
    Unstable climate oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula
    Khim, B.-K., Yoon, H.I., Kang, C.Y. and Bahk, J.J. 2002; Quaternary Research 58: 234-245
    The late Holocene records clearly identify Neoglacial events of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Other unexplained climatic events comparable in duration and amplitude to the LIA and MWP events also appear in the MS record, suggesting intrinsically unstable climatic conditions during the late Holocene in the Bransfield Basin of Antarctic Peninsula.”
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6WPN-47G345R-3&_user=10&_coverDate=11%2F30%2F2002&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1209278974&_rerunOrigin=scholar.google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=949091ba6045406504bbb94039472b0d

  84. MJK (06:03:08)
    Australia experienced very hot weather in late Autumn and into early December.
    That was when the Jambaroo at Copenhagen was held.
    Since then it has been a very mild, humid and wet summer over much of Australia, with flooding in many areas.
    Several places experienced more rain in a few hours than usually falls in a whole month.
    The weather patterns and the rainfall are very similar to that which we experienced 60 odd years ago, when the previous cyclic climate cycle peaked.
    I remember it well.

  85. A C Osborn (08:06:13) :”…As to Satellite temperatures, they do not even reflect reallity, showing Hot Spots in the Northern Hemisphere where there is Currently Ice & Snow with some of the lowest temperatures ever recorded.”
    The formation of ice and snow involves the release of latent heats of vaporization and freezing. The solid water falls to the surface; the heat remains in the atmosphere, creating higher temperatures at the elevations monitored by satellite.

  86. I was looking at mean temp graphs around the Upper Midwest region (MN, WI, MI) using the USHCN site, and I noticed step changes in the means. 1931, and 1998 initiated upward step changes around 1degF(on average). Very interesting.

  87. Thanks to Henry chance and the link to Climateprogress.
    I browsed through the site that is full of doomsday predictions, and found the following link: http://climateprogress.org/2009/04/12/australia-southwest-global-warming-drought-wildfire/
    I started feeling sorry for myself living in Australia – hey we won’t even have enough water to drink and we will have to drink only beer. Tough. But then confirmed that rainfall in Australia is on an upwards trend:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=T
    For most of Australia the chances of more than average rain in the next 3 montsh is 50% or better (the lower probablity is in the very wet areas that are NOT drought affected):
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml
    In the last week we had:
    Floods in Brisbane: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml
    Floods in Sydney: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/flood-warning-from-bureau-20100213-nyen.html
    Floods on the NSW South Coast: http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/south-coast-farwest-are-disaster-zones-20100216-o3xm.html
    nd in the last month we had quite a bit of water in the Darling River which flows into the Murray
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/floodwater-to-quench-lakes-at-murray-mouth-20100119-mj6q.html

  88. Joshua Hedlund (05:37:09) :
    You were asking about published papers about snowfall trends.
    I’ve got one, at least:
    Changnon, et al, “Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States”, JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 45:1141-1155 (2006).
    There is no simple take-away message. They report a slight increase in US snowfall over the 20th century, with complicated spatial patterns and a great deal of variability.

  89. Mike C in NS (10:58:04) :
    The 6th Grader UHI video, once again! 😎
    ____________________________________________
    can anybody dispute this finding:
    The 20th century reported warming is entirely an UHI phenonena.
    There is no factual basis for the call to restrict CO2 emissions.

  90. Steve Goddard (12:36:48) :
    Steve, that is really an impressive piece of work you did with the area projection through google maps. I could argue with your assessment of the results some more but let’s call a truce for the time being. signing out.
    best
    mjk

  91. Corey (13:31:51) :
    Simply listing a bunch of locations, and saying they were warm at some point in a 400 year span isn’t good enough. One has to combine them and get an actual global record over time. In any case, the whole thing isn’t that significant, anyway.
    AusieDan (14:51:21) :
    I hadn’t seen that video before. Has anybody got a written list of all the stations they used? I’d have used a lot more rural stations, but it’s still an interesting approach.


  92. Oliver K. Manuel (04:35:50) :

    Earth’s heat source is not a ball of Hydrogen (H), it is not heated primarily by H-fusion, solar neutrinos do not oscillate away to preserve fairy tales, neutrons repulsion powers the stars and the cosmos, nuclear matter is dissociating rather than fusing together

    Surely the good doctor does not deny the H-bomb (and the mechanism by which it works)?
    Follow-on Q: Does not the H-bomb provide experimental basis for understanding how fusion processes obstensibly take place in old sol?
    .
    .

  93. Oliver K. Manuel, my first clue to the truth of the climate scandal was the tone taken by the participants. The sun may be a ball of iron, but you are not persuasive.
    ========================

  94. Carrot Eater, and Tom P, risks being the last casualty in ‘All Quiet on the Climate Front’, along with other members of their squad. Forget it guys; Dano’s marked out the honor for himself.
    ==============================

  95. Steven,
    It seems like determining the global temp is quite complicated and fraught with sensor issues. Why not rely more on ocean levels? The ocean is a natural integrator of planet energy and it is relatively simple to measure the ocean level.

  96. Histogram (with Normal Curve) of 1946-2008
    Mann-Whitney Test and CI: 1890-1945, 1946-2008
    Years #Samples Median
    1890-1945 612 68.000
    1946-2008 803 67.400
    Point estimate for ETA1-ETA2 is 0.400
    95.0 Percent CI for ETA1-ETA2 is (-0.700,1.600)
    W = 438746.0
    Test of ETA1 = ETA2 vs ETA1 not = ETA2 is significant at 0.4742
    The test is significant at 0.4742 (adjusted for ties)
    This is taking the data off the NOAA Climactic Data Center. Putting it in MiniTab.
    Running a Mann-Whitney Test
    Since significance << 0.05, the chances that these two data periods are "significantly different" on a statistical basis is virtually ZERO.
    Thus there is NO statistically significant difference between the first 1/2 of the 20th century and the last 1/2.
    I find similar results from my 190 years of temperature data for Mpls/St. Paul.
    The fact that NOAA and the rest of these RASCALS can't do BASIC statistics, (non-parametric because the temps are not a NORMAL distribution.) Means they are HOPELESS! Can we get PHD's removed on the basis of incompetency?

  97. Looks like Texas has decided to take on the EPA: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1661844120100216

    Texas said it had filed a petition for review challenging the EPA’s “endangerment finding” with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Texas has also asked the EPA to reconsider its ruling.
    “The EPA’s misguided plan paints a big target on the backs of Texas agriculture and energy producers and the hundreds of thousands of Texans they employ,” Texas Gov. Rick Perry said.

  98. Ref – Oliver K. Manuel (04:35:50) :
    “Climatology is not the only science that has been terribly disgraced by consensus “group science.” Since the return of Apollo with the first lunar samples in 1969, the same consensus “group science” has taken control of our most prestigious journals (Nature, Science, etc) and research institutions (NAS, NASA, DOE, Cal-tech, Harvard, University of Chicago, University of Bern, etc) and reduced astronomy, astrophysics, planetary science, solar and space sciences, nuclear and particle physics to popular fairy tales (to wit) Earth’s heat source is not a ball of Hydrogen (H), it is not heated primarily by H-fusion, solar neutrinos do not oscillate away to preserve fairy tales, neutrons repulsion powers the stars and the cosmos, nuclear matter is dissociating rather than fusing together in our vibrant universe, etc., etc.”
    ________________________
    Maybe I’m stupid, but I didn’t read the above to insult anyone except the “group science mob” that are represented by people like Mann in many fields and the “science journel” mob that are out to sell magazines and NOT to publish serious research findings and updates.
    If I’m wrong, let me wallow in my ignorance.

  99. The data Goddard shows in this post confirmed something I have sensed in my mind this winter: that it has been the coldest and snowiest winter here since 1983-1984. Very interesting data.
    I have also wondered why Dallas has not had a significant tornado hit within the main part of the city since 1957. Could the urban heat island have something to do with that? Downtown Fort Worth was hit hard by a tornado in 1998 (a storm that came all too close to my own neighborhood in Arlington then), so maybe not. But I have always wondered about that, since downtown Dallas is so much larger and more concentrated.

  100. The more I read about “global temperature” the more I associate it (and the problem it presents) the same way as when we talk about weather and climate –getting a “BIG” picture from a zillion or less little pixel readings). I also wonder how we’d do it on any other planet or if we lived on the Sun. Adding up all the hotspots and coldspots and doing some old fashioned division I don’t think would give us the same answer we have for what we say the temperature is for any of these other heavenly bodies when we measure it millions of miles away.
    Still think we need to put a satalite or two out there, say 50 million miles away, and measure it as if Earth were a speck in the universe. That’s the only way to be sure. Right?
    Maybe that Mars Rover that’s stuck would look up and give us a reading or two every so often. That would be cheaper.

  101. Steve Goddard,
    I just now got to this post. Very interesting. I have graphed the data for Hadley CRUT3 data that they released a couple of months ago, and have San Antonio in that dataset. see tinypic below.
    The data follows almost the exact shape as yours for USHCN, but something is strange. The Hadley CRUT3 is about 2 degrees higher, on average, in the early years (around 1900), compared to the USHCN. The final years are more closely matched. Thus, far less warming shown for San Antonio.
    http://tinypic.com/r/96gt1u/6
    I also have the CRUT3 graph as a png file.
    Roger

  102. “AusieDan (13:44:53) :
    MJK (06:03:08)
    Australia experienced very hot weather in late Autumn and into early December.
    That was when the Jambaroo at Copenhagen was held.
    Since then it has been a very mild, humid and wet summer over much of Australia, with flooding in many areas.
    Several places experienced more rain in a few hours than usually falls in a whole month.
    The weather patterns and the rainfall are very similar to that which we experienced 60 odd years ago, when the previous cyclic climate cycle peaked.
    I remember it well.”
    I fully concur here in Sydney. The last couple of days the weather has tried to be summery, and today is very nice, warm, not hot, and usual humidity which is quite confortable ~60%. We’ve had so much rain Lake George actually has water in it now.
    However, there have been none of the severe bush fires that were predicted after the bush fires in Victoria and New South Wales last year. I think even the arsonists (Who start most of the bush fires here in Australia) appear to have taken a break (Or maybe the “authorities” started doing their job this year?).

  103. “Speaking of global warming, does anybody know the average temps for Vancouver?”
    Yes, I have the data from all the stations in BC. Victoria is in the second video. I you want graphs of the area I can provide the data. I plan to write a report on BC with more detail.
    Want to take a guess at the trend? Yep, no increase in the summer temps, almost all flat since 1900, but the winter cold is warming. Thus a narrowing of the variability.

  104. carrot eater (12:54:29) :
    I’ll go 1980 to current, in USHCN data (not GISS; these stations stop in 2006 in GISS)
    Linear trend, Raw, deg C/decade
    Boerne +0.27
    San Antonio Airport +0.30
    Linear trend, adjusted, deg C/decade
    Boerne +0.28
    San Antonio Airport +0.44
    If you were thinking Boerne was a good UHI-less station, then there was real warming there in the last ~30 years. It’s there in the raw data, it’s there in the adjusted data.
    San Antonio Airport shows a similar trend in the raw data, and a bit stronger in the adjusted. Go figure, but it can happen. I’d have to check how much of that was TOB, and how much of it was homogenisation.

    =================================================
    Where to start?
    I have analyzed the temperature datasets for the South Texas Region, 16 ways to Sunday: Raw vs. “value added”. Urban vs. Rural. Annually, monthly, Tmax, Tmin. 1885-2009, 1905-1940, 1942-2009, etc. Throw in wind and precipitation.
    The San Antonio station had 2 major moves in 1940 & 1942, with significant changes in both latitude and elevation, moving from a growing downtown, north to a (then) rural airport (at a higher elevation).
    Boice et al (1996), using urban San Antonio and rural Boerne, New Braunfels, and Poteet (1946-1990), showed a San Antonio UHI of 5.4° F / Century.
    Boerne was an oddity in that study, showing some signs of UHI.
    Growth of SA is mostly to the NW, N, and NE.
    Boerne is NW of SA.
    Wind in SA is from the SE to the NW, 3+ months a year.
    Using urban San Antonio and rural Boerne, Beeville, Llano, Blanco, and Luling (1942-2009), my results showed SA UHI ≈ 3° F / Century.
    And there is no UHI stagnation in SA. Recently completed freeway widening (to 10 lanes each), a new cloverleaf interchange, and an under construction 3rd terminal (all near the airport sensor), ensure that SA UHI continues to increase.
    All 5 rural sites showed cooling. Average = 1.2°F/C.
    Boerne was again an outlier, showing less cooling than the other 4 rural sites.
    Results got strange trying to analyze Tmin and Tmax trends by month.

  105. Steve Koch,
    One problem with using sea level as a thermometer is that it is affected by other factors like glacial melt. Another problem is that it reflects local water temperatures rather than air temperatures. Se level trends vary a lot from place to place. In some locations sea level is falling and in other places it is rising.
    http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

  106. Tom in Texas,
    I wrote up a piece this morning showing visual comparisons of San Antonio vs. Boerne and Luling. Might be up tomorrow.

  107. Related to Texas as it relates to weather/climate/Cap & Tax/GHGs and the EPA CO2 Endangerment Finding enforcement from Reuters::
    UPDATE 1-Texas to challenge US greenhouse gas rules
    Texas suit one of several to challenge EPA
    * EPA pursuing CO2 rules if Congress does not act (Adds byline, American Petroleum Institute petition, others)
    By Ed Stoddard, Reuters
    DALLAS, Feb 16 (Reuters) – Texas and several national industry groups on Tuesday filed separate petitions in federal court challenging the government’s authority to regulate U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
    Texas, which leads U.S. states in carbon dioxide emissions due to its heavy concentration of oil refining and other industries, will see a major impact if U.S. mandatory emissions reductions take effect.
    In December, the Environmental Protection Agency ruled that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide endanger human health, opening the door for the agency to issue mandatory regulations to reduce them.
    Texas said it had filed a petition for review challenging the EPA’s “endangerment finding” with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Texas has also asked the EPA to reconsider its ruling.
    “The EPA’s misguided plan paints a big target on the backs of Texas agriculture and energy producers and the hundreds of thousands of Texans they employ,” Texas Gov. Rick Perry said.
    The rest of the pieces at:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1661844120100216

  108. There is an explanation for the snow on Wunderground, due to El Nino and the AO. However it is warm in Canada, which goes unmentioned here of course 😀
    Andy

  109. I have found the same paradox in australia. I have compared raw data for Sydney, Newcastle, Dubbo and Cessnock. The latter are rural locations with data going back to 1900. The only warming occurs in Sydney with some in Newcastle. The rural towns are showing no warming and even a cooling if an Excel trend line is any indication. The warming in Sydney is interesting as it kicks up in the late 50’s to early 60’s. This is when there was a lot of building going on after WW2 (the baby boom period).

  110. re carrot eater (12:54:29) : “Absolute temperatures are not important here; trends are. If UHI causes a steady offset of 2 C over the period of interest, then UHI is not important to the analysis over that period.”
    Carrot, I used GISS data because that is what “Peter and his Dad” used, and I was able to replicate their results.
    You chose to ignore the trend in the paired data. Taking the difference each year, then looking at the trend in those differences, I said that the AVERAGE difference was 1.4 DegC over the years 1904 through 2006, and that the SLOPE for that time period was 1.55 DegC per century. In other words, there was a gap and the gap was growing.
    My comment about a gap of 2 degrees was intended to show the size of the gap in the later years ( 1.4 over all, but over 2 after 1984)
    So let’s look at the trend in the differences after 1984:
    In 1984, the difference was 1.97, and by 2006 the difference was 2.34. The SLOPE of the differences using all values 1984 through 2006 shows 0.5 DegC per century increase in the temperature difference.
    Since the difference was not constant over that period, it would suggest that UHI was important to the analysis over that period. Or maybe it tells us something about the GISS algorithm to ‘adjust’ for UHI.

  111. Dave in Delaware (05:07:59) :
    I was simply letting you know that those stations continue past 2006 in the USHCN, so going forward that’s the place to look for more current numbers.
    I’m not ignoring anything. Since 1980, Boerne shows a warming trend, in both the raw and the adjusted data. The magnitude is above 0.2 C/decade. If you’re going to put forth Boerne as a non-UHI station, you may as well acknowledge that it has a warming trend over the period of interest.
    Tom in Texas (20:22:41) :
    If you think Boerne is an outlier, then fine (for now). I haven’t looked at every single surrounding station. All I know is, Boerne was offered here as a good station, and just a glance at its data shows warming since the 1970s. I thought I would point that out.


  112. Larry (19:28:55) :
    I have also wondered why Dallas has not had a significant tornado hit within the main part of the city since 1957.
    Could the urban heat island have something to do with that? Downtown Fort Worth was hit hard by a tornado in 1998 (a storm that came all too close to my own neighborhood in Arlington then), so maybe not. But I have always wondered about that, since downtown Dallas is so much larger and more concentrated.

    Observing live coverage incl RADAR (both NWS S-band and local TV C-band wx RADARx) for about a decade now there doesn’t seem to be a magical ‘zone’ where tornadic storms simply ‘fall apart’.
    A number of the Toranadic cells have been ‘lone wolf’ formations chewing their way through a capping inversion (at altitude; not a boundary layer phenomonon) and by the time have the reached east of I-35W to nearer I-35E (Dallas) they have weakened considerably owing to the strong capping effect … others forming on the leading edgs of a squall line don’t pack the punch a tornado forming the SW quadrant of a storm does.
    So, I would say from an observation point of view this theory is not supported by the observational evidence.
    .
    .

  113. Steven Goddard,
    “One problem with using sea level as a thermometer is that it is affected by other factors like glacial melt. Another problem is that it reflects local water temperatures rather than air temperatures. Sea level trends vary a lot from place to place. In some locations sea level is falling and in other places it is rising”
    Thanks for the link to the awesome sea level map.
    What is wrong with including glacial melt? Isn’t glacial melt partially a result of climate energy?
    This is my uneducated wag but isn’t the the total energy in the oceans and seas a key climate factor? Does most of the climate energy at any instant come from the oceans and seas?
    The sea levels on the map seemed mostly up. Aren’t the sea levels useful at least in a relative sense?
    Given that the surface sensor temperature DBs are crap, how do the temp trends look if you just use satellite measurements that do not include any UHI spots?
    Is the climate science community outraged by the behavior of the climategate perpetrators? Have any polls been taken to see the reaction of climate scientists as a group?
    It has been suggested that climate science should take an open source approach in the future to restore the confidence of the public in climate science ethics. Do you think this will happen?

  114. _Jim (16:01:44) quotes Oliver K. Manuel (04:35:50) :
    “Earth’s heat source is not a ball of Hydrogen (H), it is not heated primarily by H-fusion, solar neutrinos do not oscillate away to preserve fairy tales, neutrons repulsion powers the stars and the cosmos, nuclear matter is dissociating rather than fusing together”
    _Jim asks: “Surely the good doctor does not deny the H-bomb (and the mechanism by which it works)?”
    – – – – – – – –
    OM replies: H-fusion is well established as a source of energy that releases typically up to 0.7 % of the rest mass as energy.
    – – – – – – – –
    Follow-on Q: Does not the H-bomb provide experimental basis for understanding how fusion processes obstensibly take place in old sol?
    – – – – – – – –
    OM replies: In old sol, fusion of Hydrogen (a neutron-decay product) generates ~35% of solar energy and ~100% of solar neutrinos. Solar neutrinos do not magically oscillate away to fit the fairy tale model of a Hydrogen-filled Sun.
    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel

  115. Steve Koch,
    Glacial melt is pretty minimal at this point in the glacial cycle. It has very little impact on the overall energy balance of the earth.

  116. The global warming phenomena is mainly caused by the excess CO2 liberated by the industries and this forms a layer which traps sun rays, which in turn lead to the rise in the atmospheric temperature.

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