From Dr. Roger Pielke Senior’s blog:

UPDATE PM JANUARY 16 2010 – Jim Hansen has released a statement on his current conclusions regarding the global average surface temperature trends [and thanks to Leonard Ornstein and Brian Toon for alerting us to this information]. The statement is If It’s That Warm, How Come It’s So Damned Cold? by James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Ken Lo
My comments below remain unchanged. Readers will note that Jim Hansen does not cite or comment on any of the substantive unresolved uncertainties and systematic warm bias that we report on in our papers. They only report on their research papers. This is a clear example of ignoring peer reviewed studies which conflict with one’s conclusions.
***ORIGINAL POST***
Thanks to Anthony Watts for alerting us to a news release by NASA GISS (see) which reads
“NASA has not been involved in any manipulation of climate data used in the annual GISS global temperature analysis. The analysis utilizes three independent data sources provided by other agencies. Quality control checks are regularly performed on that data. The analysis methodology as well as updates to the analysis are publicly available on our website. The agency is confident of the quality of this data and stands by previous scientifically based conclusions regarding global temperatures.” (GISS temperature analysis website: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/)” [note: I could not find the specific url from NASA, so I welcome being sent this original source].
This statement perpetuates the erroneous claim that the data sources are independent [I welcome information from GISS to justify their statement, and will post if they do]. This issue exists even without considering any other concerns regarding their analyses.
I have posted a number of times on my weblog with respect to the lack of independence of the surface temperature data; e.g. see
Further Comment On The Surface Temperature Data Used In The CRU, GISS And NCDC Analyses
There remain also important unresolved uncertainties and systematic biases in the surface temperature data used by GISS [and CRU and NCDC] which we reported in the peer reviewed literature, i.e.
Pielke Sr., R.A., C. Davey, D. Niyogi, S. Fall, J. Steinweg-Woods, K. Hubbard, X. Lin, M. Cai, Y.-K. Lim, H. Li, J. Nielsen-Gammon, K. Gallo, R. Hale, R. Mahmood, S. Foster, R.T. McNider, and P. Blanken, 2007: Unresolved issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land surface temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S08, doi:10.1029/2006JD008229
with only one Comment in the literature on just two of our issues by the CRU group
Parker, D. E., P. Jones, T. C. Peterson, and J. Kennedy, 2009: Comment on Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends. by Roger A. Pielke Sr. et al.,J. Geophys. Res., 114, D05104, doi:10.1029/2008JD010450
which we refuted in
Pielke Sr., R.A., C. Davey, D. Niyogi, S. Fall, J. Steinweg-Woods, K. Hubbard, X. Lin, M. Cai, Y.-K. Lim, H. Li, J. Nielsen-Gammon, K. Gallo, R. Hale, R. Mahmood, S. Foster, R.T. McNider, and P. Blanken, 2009: Reply to comment by David E. Parker, Phil Jones, Thomas C. Peterson, and John Kennedy on “Unresolved issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land surface temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D05105,
doi:10.1029/2008JD010938
with the referees agreeing with our Reply (see reviews contained within this post).
The NASA GISS (and NCDC and CRU groups) have also not responded to the systematic warm bias that we reported in
Klotzbach, P.J., R.A. Pielke Sr., R.A. Pielke Jr., J.R. Christy, and R.T. McNider, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21102, doi:10.1029/2009JD011841.
Klotzbach, P. J., R. A. Pielke, Sr., R. A. Pielke, Jr., J. R. Christy, and R. T. McNider (2010), Correction to “An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere”, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D01107, doi:10.1029/2009JD013655.
The GISS news release is symptomatic of the continued attempt to ignore science issues in their data analysis which conflict with their statement in the press release. This is not how the scientific process should be conducted.
We urge, based on the exposure of such type of behavior in the CRU e-mails; i.e. see
The Crutape Letters by Steven Mosher, Thomas W. Fuller, 2010 ISBN/EAN13: 1450512437 / 9781450512435
that the suppression of alternative viewpoints ends.
By the way, Hansen’s work has not been independently verified. Other research groups have come up with other sets of adjusted and analyzed data that says something different (re: 1934 versus 1998, etc) than what his says. That means one of two things: 1) one of them (or more) is wrong, or 2) they are all wrong.
Pamela, they are all ‘wrong’. They are estimates.
I assume by “1934 versus 1998” you are referring to the year of highest temperature for the continental US. I am not aware that the GISS ranking is different to any other. Could you please state what you think Hansen’s conclusion is, and then cite an alternative view. As far as I am aware, GISS see 1934 as higher than 1998 by a fraction. Where is this gainsaid?
Pamela Gray (18:21:43) :
If your study is based on adjusted data, you should keep a copy of the raw data AND the adjusted data. Hansen uses adjusted data (I don’t know if he asked for the raw data as well). And then adjusts it some more. To be absolutely clean, he should have started with raw data. He would then have reported on what he did to the raw data to adjust it, and then reported on the analysis.
That’s what he did, you can take a look at his code and papers and check if you like. From his 2001 paper on US and global surface temperature change:
“The current GISS analysis of surface air temperature change is available at
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp. The data set can also be obtained via ftp at ftp@giss.nasa.gov. The previous analysis [Hansen et al., 1999] continues to be available at the GISS web site, but it is not updated each
month as the new analysis.
The USHCN data are available from the NCDC web site at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/research/ushcn/.
He muddied his own work by using adjusted data to start with. If it had been me, I would have required copies of the original raw data sheets be sent to me from who ever keeps them.
By the way, Hansen’s work has not been independently verified. Other research groups have come up with other sets of adjusted and analyzed data that says something different (re: 1934 versus 1998, etc) than what his says. That means one of two things: 1) one of them (or more) is wrong, or 2) they are all wrong.
Re 1934 vs 1998 he has consistently said that they are in a statistical deadheat as are the NOAA results:
“The U.S. annual (January-December) mean temperature is slightly warmer in 1934 than in 1998 in the GISS analysis (Plate 6). This contrasts with the USHCN data, which has 1998 as the warmest year in the century. In both cases the difference between 1934 and 1998 mean temperatures is a few hundredths of a degree. The main reason that 1998 is relatively cooler in the GISS analysis is its larger adjustment for urban warming. In comparing
temperatures of years separated by 60 or 70 years the uncertainties in various adjustments (urban warming, station history adjustments, etc.) lead to an uncertainty of at least 0.1°C. Thus it is not possible to declare a record U.S. temperature with confidence until a result is obtained that exceeds the temperature of 1934 by more than 0.1°C.”
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2001/2001_Hansen_etal.pdf
Richard M (15:28:16) :
Phil. (07:37:34) :
“In order to that I’d need to see this “natural climate variability theory”, what does it say where can I read about it? As far as I can tell it’s ‘anything that happens is a natural variation’ which clearly isn’t a falsifiable scientific theory, even a flat line is covered by the natural variation being ~zero.”
So, let me get this straight. You don’t know what the theory is yet you state it cannot be falsifiable. That is pure nonsense. Let me know when you get serious about this topic. These kind of made up on the fly comments by you are wasting everyone’s time.
So evidently you don’t know where this “natural climate variability theory” is described either. I’ve been unable to find such a theory described in scientific terms, until it is how can it be falsified?
Talking about waste of time, your unsubstantiated ramblings about the state of medical research in the past and assertions that plants like it warmer don’t bring much to the table.
deech is typical of the climate alarmist attitude when he denigrates scientific skepticism — as if the skeptics’ questioning of AGW dogma, and their requests for full and complete transparency and cooperation in providing data and methods in order to independently test conclusions, is something to be sneered at; deech claims skeptics are not, in his words, ‘actual’ scientists.
The climate alarmist crowd refuses to answer skeptics’ questions for one reason: they know damn well that if they provided full and complete records of their data, methodologies and code, their CO2=CAGW hypothesis would be quickly and publicly debunked. That would cut off their grant gravy train, so they go to extraordinary lengths to stonewall requests for information, saying in effect, “trust us.” But the climategate emails show that they cannot be trusted.
Skeptical scientists are the only honest kind of scientists. Skepticism is at the heart of the Scientific Method. Skepticism is the reason we don’t go to witch doctors when we get sick. Because of skeptical doctors who instituted the practice of hand washing, there was no longer a high mortality rate among women giving birth.
In the mid-1800’s Dr Semelweiss questioned the mainstream medical profession’s lack of concern over hospital cleanliness. His questioning of the establishment was perceived as a threat — just as skeptics’ questioning of AGW is perceived as a threat today by the alarmist establishment.
The clique that controlled medicine at the time responded by heaping scorn and ridicule on Semelweiss for daring to question their methods — exactly like deech does when he writes: “…requiring that “skeptics” arise to the same standards as actual scientists…”.
The clique that currently controls the climate peer review process, GISS, HadCRU and the rest of the climate alarmist industry have only one ‘standard’: keep skeptics out of the process at all costs, because skeptics are a threat to their lucrative grant income.
deech fails to grasp the fact that every honest scientist is a skeptic, first and foremost. It is the devious AGW clique in control that lacks honest standards.
That problem could be easily rectified by simply working with skeptical scientists to falsify the AGW hypothesis if possible, and by publicly archiving all the raw and adjusted data and methods that support the AGW hypothesis. The fact that Hansen, Mann, the CRU crew and the rest of the AGW climate alarmists refuse to disclose their raw data and methods makes it clear that they value the rewards of their rent-seeking politics much more than they value scientific truth.
Dr Semelweiss was eventually driven out of his practice by the mainstream medical clique, which felt threatened by his questioning of their methods, and who ignored the fact that he had lowered female mortality in childbirth in his hospital from 18% to well under 2% in just one year. He was attacked and ridiculed in the same way that today’s AGW skeptics are attacked and ridiculed. In the end the truth won out. Semelweiss is remembered, and the establishment clique is long forgotten.
Pamela Gray shows the right way to investigate AGW claims in her post above:
If that had been consistently done, the tens of $billions wasted on the non-problem of AGW would have been available to solve actual, serious problems in other areas of science. And the public wouldn’t be questioning the honesty of scientists in general, because of the mendacious and self-serving actions of a relatively small clique of AGW gatekeepers.
FYI
a little off topic but BING is curiously refreshing ….
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2010/01/16/lawrence-solomon-better-off-with-bing.aspx
deech56 (06:53:48) : So E.M.Smith (05:33:14): Do you actually believe that we’re not in a warming period?
In a chaotic cyclical series, this question without time frame is meaningless. the answer to your question, grasshopper, is ‘mu’ (whack with slim bamboo cane). You need to become the empty vessel, not present empty questions…
http://int.kateigaho.com/jan04/zen-mu.html
Or more directly:
Yes, we are definitely in a cooling trend. It’s been strongly cooling since 6 pm and now as we approach 3 am is getting quite cold. It’s also been cooling dramatically for about 10,000 years. It’s also been cooling since the time 3200+ BC when The Ice Man ended up under a glacier and the “tropical ice caps in Peru covered plants so fast they almost look flash frozen as we dig them out from under the ice caps today. Oh, and it’s been cooling quite fast since 1998. I can also with great confidence predict that 50,000 years from now Canada will be an ice sheet.
But it’s been warming dramatically from 1817 to today. It’s also been warming since about 600 AD to today. And we have been in a whopper of a warming trend from 50,000 BC to today. I also confidently predict that tomorrow will have a dramatic and unsustainable warming trend from about 7 am until 3 pm or so.
You see, the fundamental flaw under all of the AGW clap trap is this notion that 30 years means anything. It does not. 30 years, or even 300 years is not even sand in the hourglass of time. It is less than dust in a summer breeze. ANYTHING we see on a human time scale is meaningless to the planet, for it moves in geologic time scales and to geologic degrees.
CO2 is meaningless. Human activity is meaningless. And “warming trend” is meaningless. We are, always have been, and always will be in both “warming trends” and “cooling trends” all at the same time. It depends only and entirely on how big a window of time you can grasp… and how many at once…
MU !
The empty vessel.
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/09/how-long-is-a-long-temperature-history/
So we will end up in an ice age. The only question is exactly how “soon” it will start. We are presently on a very flat very unusual ‘ledge’ on the side of one of those mountains of warming, but up near the top headed for a tumble. You would like to fret over the miniscule almost invisible ripple on that ledge and think somehow we have influence over it. We don’t. We can also see that the peaks always are followed by the plunge, and that peaks have been higher than now and NEVER had ‘runaway warming’. There is no runaway warming from the top; only runaway cooling. All you can hope for is to die before it comes. (and given that it might take a 1000 years to come, that is a reasonable hope.) And if it does come starting now, you can not even hope to stop it…
So become the empty vessel and see that all is as it should be. (and you will stop asking empty questions…)
“Many such journeys are possible. Let Me be your guide!” – Guardian of Forever TOS.