Back on December 12th 2009 I posted an article titled:
Solar geomagnetic activity is at an all time low – what does this mean for climate?
We then had a string of sunspots in December that marked what many saw as a rejuvenation of solar cycle 24 after a long period of inactivity. See December sunspots on the rise
It even prompted people like Joe Romm to claim:
But what Joe doesn’t understand is that sunspots are just one proxy, the simplest and most easily observed, for magnetic activity of the sun. It is the magnetic activity of the sun which is central to Svensmark’s theory of galactic cosmic ray modulation, which may affect cloud cover formation on earth, thus affecting global temperatures. As the theory goes, lower magnetic activity of the sun lets more GCR’s into our solar system, which produce microscopic cloud seed trails (like in a Wilson cloud chamber) in our atmosphere, resulting in more cloud cover, resulting in a cooler planet. Ric Werme has a nice pictorial here.
When I saw the SWPC Ap geomagnetic index for Dec 2009 posted yesterday, my heart sank. With the sunspot activity in December, I thought surely the Ap index would go up. Instead, it crashed.
Annotated version above – Source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Ap.gif
Source data: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt
When you look at the Ap index on a larger scale, all the way back to 1844 when measurements first started, the significance of this value of “1” becomes evident. This graph from Dr. Leif Svalgaard shows where we are today in relation to the past 165 years.
Source: http://www.leif.org/research/Ap-Monthly-Averages-1844-Now.png
With apologies to Dr. Svalgaard, I’ve added the “1” line and the most current SWPC value of “1” for Dec 2009.
As you can see, we’ve never had such a low value before, and the only place lower to go is “zero”.
But this is only part of the story. With the Ap index dwindling to a wisp of magnetism, it bolsters the argument made by Livingston and Penn that sunspots may disappear altogether by 2015. See Livingston and Penn – Sunspots may vanish by 2015
Above: Sunspot magnetic fields measured by Livingston and Penn from 1992 – Feb. 2009 using an infrared Zeeman splitting technique. [more] from the WUWT article: NASA: Are Sunspots Disappearing?
The theory goes that once the magnetic strength falls below 1500 gauss, sunspots will become invisible to us.
Note where we are on this curve that Dr. Svalgaard also keeps of LP’s measurements:
Source: http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png
It appears that we are on track, and that’s a chilling thought.
NOTE TO COMMENTERS AND MODERATORS: No off-topic discussions of Landscheidt, “electric universe”, or “iron sun” will be permitted on this thread. All will be snipped. Stay on topic. – Anthony
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Japer Kirkby at Cern, presentation, 1hour:
http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073/
PDF for the praesentation:
http://indico.cern.ch/getFile.py/access?resId=0&materialId=slides&confId=52576
Jasper Kirkby, of course.
From the AdderW (10:24:09) link:
‘Paul Simons, The Times weatherman, says the icy conditions could become more prevalent if global warming continues to melt the Arctic ice caps. “If the Gulf Stream slows down/diverts, we’re in big trouble.”‘
Another graduate of the Hollywood School of Meteorology. 🙂
that October “Step Change” has a personal story attached to it.I buried my dear mother on 10/18/05. Vitually the day the sun switched to “cool” .I was walking across the Church Parking lot,and the Organist(who later charged me $100
bucks.) Said”Sure is warm today” (mid 60’s not a record for NE Oregon-and a beautiful, warm fall day-mom would’ve loved it)-she continued-“Got to do something about this!”(She is a local activist/warmist) I said”Well this is part of
a cycle,it will cool off and fairly soon as we are due for a solar cycle downturn
and the Pacific’s due for a cool cycle.”_She_was_Enraged!_”Do you not undestand what Al Gore has been pleading FOR! We are Killing the planet!”
Stompimg off, she under her breath-muttered”#$@ur momisugly%_Repubilcans!”-I said:
“Ah, I’m not a Republican” She got into her Suburban and sped away….
The value for December was actually 1.41, still 1 in my books though. 😉
http://www.solen.info/solar/
NOAA AR 11035 has just rotated into view and in the latest GONG images it is trying to form a tiny pore… which no doubt will be counted tomorrow with a value of 13.
Unfortunately Leif, it appears that activity (at least monthly activity) is no longer identical to the 1901 dip as you have previously mentioned. It has gone below that level. The index for January 2010 is thus far at 1.42
Solar Polar Field Strength is also in a funk:
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
Solar Wind is at extremely low values:
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/swind1.gif
Despite the celebration over December’s mild sunspot up-tick solar activity is low, we are entering into territory no living scientist or modern technology has experienced or recorded.
The Clilverd et al (2006) prediction for SC 24 is the likely outcome.
A peak of 42 ± 34 ,(Dalton minimum type cycle).
Er, was Joe Romm being ironic or does he concede a link between climate and sunspot activity?
Desperate days for the Beeb (who will now investigate themselves for possible bias on climate change…. yeah, I wonder what they’ll decide?) but they keep plugging the “extremes of weather are due to global warming” ….
Re: etudiant (10:15:19) :
Is there any possibility that the suns magnetic field could be about to flip?
This has happened here on earth a number of times, as shown in the geomagnetic record.
—
It has fields & flips regularly(ish) for the 11-year cycle. Dr Svalgaard recommended a book-
The Sun from Space, Kenneth R. Lang ISBN 978-3540769521
Which I found fascinating. Opening sentence goes-
“From afar, the Sun does not look very complex” Then proceeds to explain how it’s a loopy squirly knot of magnetism and plasma doing all sorts of complex things. Plus it has some great pictures 🙂
Still not got my head around how the Sun’s magnetic fields interact with ours, and if/how our declining fields may be affecting our system.
As a person that has to analyze lots of data nearly every day, the thing that strikes me about the ISES Ap Progression aside of the aforementioned step change is the remarkable decrease in monthly variability. Before 2005, the monthly variability was much larger than it has been for the last 4 years or so. That, in itself, is quite remarkable and unique. I’m not sure what it means, but it is certainly noteworthy.
The following link is nice in that the A index, sunspots & flux are all plotted together:
http://www.solen.info/solar/
Anthony, might I suggest to add the A index to the climate widget
It is interesting days indeed. Hopefully the record cold currently being experienced is not an omen to come. Global cooling will be far more disastrous than any warming. Maybe you Londoners will be able to skate on the Thames again!
So, is there actually increased cloud cover?
If the Ap is just about as low as it can get, then we should be seeing something happening right now, right?
Does anyone know of something like an up to date average cloud cover vs Ap chart?
etudiant (10:15:19) :
“Is there any possibility that the suns magnetic field could be about to flip?”
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast15feb_1.htm
“February 15, 2001 — You can’t tell by looking, but scientists say the Sun has just undergone an important change. Our star’s magnetic field has flipped”
Happens every solar maximum
What this mostly shows is that Romm, the RC gang, etc. etc. don’t know squat.
Hansen was in Houston about one year ago, with a .ppt presentation making fun of the concerns about solar issues.
That presentation is not available any more. And, not knowing a year ago just how the AGW promoters behave, I did not download a copy.
It would be great to review his presentation of then.
Just a layman in this area, but I’ve also noticed that what few spots there are revisit us. Seems as if the production of new spots has not picked up as much as the the SSN would indicate. Is there a measure of longevity vs. new production over time compared to Ap?
Please excuse the naivete!
From the British Bullshipping Corpulation.
…-
“Chief defends Met Office record
John Hirst, head of the Met Office, defends the record of the weathermen after they predicted a mild winter.
Andrew Neil asked him to justify his salary which is higher than the prime minister’s.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8443687.stm
Adding on to my earlier post… which I’m not sure came through :/…
NOAA has already numbered (SWO #) this pore, and it’s not 13 as I predicted but rather 15.
Absolute nonsense.
tty (10:22:23) :
Except for the traffic lights it looks rather like a Dickens illustration
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47049000/jpg/_47049609_hawick-neil-dickson.jpg
As nature likes..to dance in wavy and gracious movements, nature does not know of men’s curious invention of straight lines, so in its dancing cycles following musical rythms of four hundred years of so, its wide hips move right, and left, sometimes standing still…
Fear not, repent yes of silly pride, forbid nothing, just silently and humbly watch!
New SS group:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.html
Is it this one?
http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073/
And thanks to Anthony for this article, far more interesting than fiction!
Etudiant, the sun magnetic field flips with each solar cycle every 11 years aprox, with each polarity taking turns alternatively.
Yes, but aren’t sun spots only one indicator of solar activity? They’ve never been anything more.
As for Romm’s ‘hottest decade’, the only ‘hottest’ thing about the past ten years has been the abuse heaped upon those who still try to do some independent critical thinking.
Consequences of “Pride and prejudice”:
the swirl of cloud over East Anglia is the cumulus cloud system that caused snow showers today
On the topic of lag between Ap index and temperature:
There appears to be a 5 year lag from Ap index to Albuquerque growing season from 1900 to now. Spurious correlation? Don’t know.
Don’t forget Lief’s Fall 2009 AGU presentation:
http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202009%20SH13C-03.pdf
1. Solar Polar Field Strength in a funk:
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
2. Solar wind at extremely low values:
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/swind1.gif
3. Ap Index has dropped below 1901 levels, so it seems activity is no longer identical to 1901 dip as Leif has stated previously. ( Ap so far 1.42 for Jan 2010)
Despite December’s modest increase in spots and today’s numbering of the puny pore, solar activity is still low and the Clilverd et al (2006) prediction for SC 24 peak of 42 ± 34 (identical to Dalton Minimum cycles), is the likely outcome.