Earlier I wrote about the Arctic Oscillation Index going strongly negative in December and what new cold to expect in January. From NASA’s Earth observatory, we have a high resolution temperature anomaly map that provides visualization of the effects. This image was taken while the Copenhagen Climate Conference was in progress.
A wave of frigid air spilled down over Europe and Russia from the Arctic in mid-December, creating a deadly cold snap. According to BBC.com, at least 90 people had died in Europe, including 79 people, mostly homeless, in Poland. In places, the bitter cold was accompanied by heavy snow, which halted rail and air traffic for several days during the week of Christmas.
This image shows the impact of the cold snap on land surface temperatures across the region from December 11–18, 2009, compared to the 2000–2008 average. The measurements were made by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Places where temperatures were up to 20 degrees Celsius below average are blue, locations where temperatures were average are cream-colored, and places where temperatures were above average are red. Light gray patches show where clouds were so persistent during the week that MODIS could not make measurements of the land surface temperature. The biggest anomalies were in northern Russia, but a swath of below-average temperatures stretched across the countries around the Baltic Sea as well.
See also:
- Daily, 8-day, and monthly land surface temperature anomaly maps
- Animation of monthly global land surface temperature anomalies
h/t to WUWT reader “JT”
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How much is the increase in heat over the arctic as shown on the DMI site due to the enthalpy of fusion or latent heat released by freezing water? Wiki shows an incredible amount of 333 Joules per gallon released from freezing. I also noticed on Roger Pielkes website that He mentions that Hansen claims that while the arctic ice sheet was melting that something like .25 W/M2 of the global heat imbalance acculumulating was used to either melt ice or lost in the deep ocean. Therefore now that the ice is growing and thickening it must be adding substaliatal heat to the atmosphere and ocean. The color of the anomaly for the sea ice on Cryosphere today is very purple (thick?)
“kadaka (22:12:04) :
….90% are protons, naked hydrogen nuclei….”
and off course this would statically charge the atmosphere.
I know Leif going to smack us, but just maybe a back of an envelop calc. put to rest this hypothesis.
commonsense (20:28:19) :
Moloo, kuhnkat: my definition of “very warm” is a Temperature ANOMALY greater than 3-4ºC.
You have an odd definition of “very warm.” A temperature of -31ºC in an area where the temperature is normally -35ºC is still pretty cold, in my book, and I’ve been in areas where a 12-hour wind shift altered the local temperature 5ºC for 48 hours.
Paul Friesen:
Current temperatures are given in this map:
http://www.eurometeo.com/english/chart/id_temp7001
Compare it to the January average Highs:
http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/temper/images/01/tmax01.png
http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/temper/images/01/t_max01.png
I could not find current temperature anomalies map. If you know someone, please share it.
The NOAA website shows warm anomalies in all Europe excluded Scandinavia and Siberia, were there are cool ones.
Bill Tuttle:
it’s not an odd definition when we are talking about climate.
But to settle things once for all,
I BET THE ARCTIC WILL STAY VERY (ANOMALOUSLY) WARM ALMOST ALL WEEKS UNTIL NEXT SUMMER.
That is, weekly surface temperature ANOMALIES above 3-4ºC.
Anthony,
The list of people dead because of the cold is unfortunately MUCH higher. I’ve compiled a list of this cold snap, and it’s at 275, and counting: http://ecotretas.blogspot.com/2009/12/december-2009-cold-death-toll.html
Ecotretas
I was 74 years old yesterday, and was reared on a farm in Iowa. I went back to visit this last spring, having been gone since I was 22, to see friends and acquaintances of mine in high school, and there was talk of the expected crops this year. What was a “bumper crop” during the 1940s would not even make a mediocre crop in “modern times”. Speaking in bushels per acre. The only significant difference between times now and times then that I can see is that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased a good bit.
The term “Global climate” has no meaning. Climates are local, sometimes a large locality, sometimes a very small locality. Weather, on the other hand, does kill people, sometimes lots of people in a short time, and does, on occasion destroy huge amounts of crops before harvest, and as of now, from what I can see, is quite unpredictable. “Average” temperatures over time are but an arithmetical calculation, and mean nothing. Attempting to extrapolate “trends” to peer into the future is futile, and can be very costly, if one would be so foolish to take heed of these “trend projections.” “Cold snaps”, as they are called, can be deadly. When the temperatures get to the higher range on occasion, are they called “hot snaps”?
Hey children!
Deadly cold? I live here, and I am not dead yet, not even close. We went to school in -35° C when I was a child.
Let’s return to deadly when the mercury has been frozen for a while and we approach -60°C.
This map is clearly wrong for Greece.
commonsense (20:37:47) :
DirkH: at what elevation does your city stay?
The NOAA maps that I linked have not enough resolution to notice cold spots caused by elevation. Even the cold Alps are missed.
So they only give the Big Picture (at a 500 km scale).
Anyway, thanks for the comment.
Braunschweig is at 75m elevation (which a quick google could have shown you if you were interested in obtaining factual information rather than waffling):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braunschweig
BTW I am in Berlin (link is here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin in case you are unfamiliar with the geography that city as well; it’s only a petty European capital after all), and we are having 10cm of snow (still falling) – over Xmas it was a bit warmer and thawing, but there had been another bout of snow the week before, with night temperatures below -10 degrees Celsius despite UHI, which is pretty unusual for this place that early in the winter I might say. Of course “weather is not climate”, but smoothed-to-death anomaly maps with less than 500km spatial (and similarly poor temporal) resolution are not even weather, just pretty pictures with hardly any resemblance to reality – more Disney animation than science….
“commonsense (18:04:01) :
“Now in Europe the heat is on again.”
You are seriously deluded – by which I mean you ignore the evidence of your own eyes.
Here in the UK, Scotland and the North of England have barely risen above zero for 19 successive days. Today, here on the Scottish Border we are enjoying our 19th day when snow has never melted from the ground and every night has brought severe frosts. It is snowing heavily as I write this. Most fo the roads in the Highlands and the Pennines are either blocked or being kept open only by regular snow-ploughing and intense gritting with salt. If the forecasts are correct, this cold period is going to last until at least the 10th January, which means we will have had 28 days when the ground has been covered in snow. I do not recall such a period in recent decades.
YAMAL!
Global centre of all the cold anomalies.
Again, the coherent pattern of land temperatures is obvious… and totally at odds with the treerings which are not just outliers, they are out-and-out-liars w.r.t. temperature.
commonsense (23:23:02) :
I BET THE ARCTIC WILL STAY VERY (ANOMALOUSLY) WARM ALMOST ALL WEEKS UNTIL NEXT SUMMER.
That is, weekly surface temperature ANOMALIES above 3-4ºC.
And I bet that, regardless of anomalies, it’ll still be cold enough to seriously inhibit the reproductive capabilities of simian figurines composed of copper-zinc alloy…
Commonsense?
Delusional might be a better choice of soubriquet!
Natural Variability Led to Extra-Cold 2008, Research Finds
ScienceDaily (Dec. 31, 2009)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091230183204.htm
While i am on science daily:
No Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Fraction in Past 160 Years, New Research Finds
ScienceDaily (Dec. 31, 2009)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091230184221.htm
commonsense (20:28:19) :
Moloo, kuhnkat: my definition of “very warm” is a Temperature ANOMALY greater than 3-4ºC.
It’s a seriously stupid definition of warm. Nevertheless I will take your bet.
Anomalies to be measured from the average for 2000-2009 using CRUTEM3.
(You may not under any circumstances choose 1979 and the actual temperatures at that time as your base point. I’ve seen that particular “joke” before.)
🙂
Commonsense
Very risqué that. Anomolie for Nov was 0.77°C. Hasn’t been to 2°C in the last 30yrs.
Not much common sense there then.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
commonsense (18:04:01) :
“Even in Continental Europe, Temps are ABOVE FREEZING, so all the snow that fell should have melted away.”
Shoul I understand from this that your conception of “Continental Europe” does not include Denmark, Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia or Rumania?
LarryOldtimer (00:16:21
You must be joking to suggest that CO2 is the main factor affecting farm yields since the 1940s. (And you don’t see other changes?) Massive increases in fertilizer might make a difference. New hybrids that are planted much more densely and grow taller as well. If farmers went back to the the 1940s seeds and farming practises, they would get 1940s yields.
The latest headline from the German daily Die Welt:
“Warmest decade in 200,000 years”
http://www.welt.de/wissenschaft/article5678918/Das-waermste-Jahrzehnt-seit-200-000-Jahren.html
Oddly, Die Welt has no qualms using MetOffice data and graphs to make this dubious claim. Expect loads of such headlines in the coming days.
(Yet, don’t be surprised if the MSM puts them off until the weather moderates).
Graham,
No delusions. It’s cold in northern Europe and mild in southern Europe on account of a warm front that cutting through the continent. See the Low in northern France and the High in Turkey
http://www2.foxnews.com/weather/continent.asp?continent=europe
And temp distibution as shown here:
http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/temperature_europe.html
But the warmth will give way to the cold in the days ahead. (Click on the hours in the top bar).
http://www.wetter24.de/de/home/wetter/profikarten/gfs_popup/archiv/Europe/t2m/2009123106/nothumb/on/27/ch/81e530b66f.html
“commonsense (18:04:01) :
Now in Europe the heat is on again.
Temps in the Mediterranean are back to +15ºC … so…
In Italy and Greece, with 21ºC, people WENT TO THE BEACH.. ON CHRISTMAS!
Even in Continental Europe, Temps are ABOVE FREEZING, so all the snow that fell should have melted away.
See the NOAA links:
1) Temperatures of last 7 days:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_07.rnl.html
2) Temperature ANOMALIES of last 7 days:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_07a.rnl.html
There is a BIG WARM ANOMALY ( between +3ºC and +9ºC) IN THE ARCTIC …
… despite the NEGATIVE Artic Oscillation values.
Also warm anomalies in Europe. The only notable cool ones are in Siberia-Scandinavia. This air masses will move away as the day pass, but …
I BET THE ARCTIC WILL STAY VERY WARM ALMOST ALL WEEKS UNTIL NEXT SUMMER.
Anyone wants to defy the bet?”
You have to be more specific in the terms of your bet. “almost all weeks” is not clear.
Can I suggest a bet based on the minimum sea Ice level for September 2010?
Even money odds would be a fair bet at 6m sq Km based on
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
If the Arctic is going to be warm for most of 2010 you would expect a number approaching the 2007 record of 4.25m sq km.
The cold will peak on arounf Jan 7.
But this won’t keep warmists from saying that it’s warm in the mediterranean – in Greece or Sicily!
http://www.wetter24.de/de/home/wetter/profikarten/gfs_popup/archiv/Europe/t2m/2009123106/nothumb/on/168/ch/bc29547900.html
The Germans though will have a very different opinion.
commonsense (20:28:19) :
The mean for the 7 day timeperiod is 245K. The actual reading was 247K.
The math shouldn’t be too difficult for you to handle.
But, just in case, you might try running your mouse over to the 1970’s and checking out the very high winter anomaly periods that occured in the Arctic above 80N, when the Coming Ice Age was the scare of the day.