Richard North from the EU Referendum writes of a curious juxtaposition of forecasts, then and now. I thought it worth sharing here since it highlights the chutzpah with which CRU botched their forecast in March of 2000. At least they didn’t claim that UK snowfall was in a “death spiral”.
From The Independent on 20 March 2000 we got the headline: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
Then, from the Telegraph online today we get: “Snow and ice to hit Britain at New Year.”
The mercury is set to drop to 28°F (-3°C) in most of England and Wales on Thursday night, New Year’s Eve, and 17°F (-8°C) in Scotland, with widespread snow showers also predicted. New Year’s Day will also be chilly, with the northern half of Britain’s struggling to get above freezing during the day, while London will do well to reach 39°F (4°C)
The forecast follows a spell of snow, sleet and ice which has gripped Britain for more than a week but relented in most parts over recent days.
It is so good to see in The Independent that the CRU is living up to its justly acquired reputation for accuracy.
I’ll also point out that this “very rare and exciting event” happened in London last year also.
Snow blankets London for Global Warming debate – first October Snow in over 70 years
Above: London 10/29/2008
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gtrip (01:15:34) :
Reply: That is one of the silliest suggestions I have ever heard and you should be embarrassed for having made it. ~ charles the moderator.
Silly? Maybe. But not denied.
I dig Anthony’s purpose regarding his website. But life is short and things change. That is all I was saying.
And just a side note Charles: If I offered you one billion dollars to say that man made carbon dioxide is killing the planet…would you do say it?
Reply: I am familiar with the “we know what kind woman you are we are just negotiating for price” story so you can skip your line of inquiry/side note. I will deny your allegations for Anthony. You are wrong. You are mistaken. And Anthony doesn’t issue denials while he is sleeping. After your blatantly racist post I removed yesterday and these rather offensive, unsubstantiated, and false allegations against Anthony today you may soon find yourself on a permanent timeout. ~ ctm
REPLY: For the record, Bill Steigerwald, a long time columnist with the Pittsburgh Tribune, has never sent me a dime. Neither has Willis Eschenbach. These articles were chosen because they are well written and have merit. Steigerwald’s article is an experiment to see how a satirical serial story will be received. Once started, the experiment needs to complete to the end. I recall that the TV show ‘Seinfeld’ wasn’t that popular the first year, but started booming the second year, because it took audiences that long to “get it”. I agree with Charles, your suggestion pegs the silly meter. – Anthony
3 X 10^7.
WUWT.
Q: Does anything in the following list not fit?
CRU
Hansen
High priest
Mann
NCDC
Chicken entrails
Hadley Centre
Science
Witch doctor
GISS
NOAA
A: Science
For those who can’t detect irony, contempt, or a rhetorical question, they’re all included in the preceding.
Now, from reading that piece in The Independent of 20 March 2000, I get this sense of déjà vu all over again. Ah yes. It’s that time of year again, when impressive Sunday newspaper supplements come out with lengthy articles from all the ‘experts’ who will issue forecasts of society’s future ~ manners of transport, technology, etc. And all their forecasts are useless because their crystal balls are nothing more than mirrors reflecting their past or personal prejudices. I actually found the Sunday funnies to be more intelligent … and honest.
And when the Hudson and Thames Rivers both freeze over, it will be described as further proof of climate change. Those ‘experts’ haven’t got a clue as to what the climate will be like in fifty years, just like no one ever foresaw in 1959 that in fifty years there would be a problem with teen drivers having wrecks while talking on a telephone the size of a deck of cards and also using that same device to type out messages (what kind of typewriter is that thing?) and to read documents from a thing called the internet.
So, here’s my climate forecast for the year 2059: It will be changing.
gtrip (01:15:34) :
Why do you think that Anthony keeps posting G. P. Bear goes to Washington?
Because it’s funny.
I’ll take “AGW Hysteria in 2005” for $100, please, Alex…
I think Dr Viner and the article is (like all the science) broadly right. Over time snow will be seen as being more and more exceptional
A prediction about as useful as “the sun will rise tomorrow”.
We know the earth has been warming in the long haul. The issue isn’t whether it has been warming, but what is causing it. Copenhagen isn’t based on the world warming, but on the “fact” that CO2 is causing it to do so disastrously.
The Met made a specific medium term prediction. It was wrong. No amount of special pleading will make it right. Sorry. You can’t weasel out by pretending it was right “in essence”. It has to be actually right to be a good prediction.
That the earth continues to slowly warm is not, in itself, proof of AGW. Hell, it isn’t even necessarily a bad thing.
Werner Weber (00:37:03) :
One of the IPCC 2001 reports told under ‘Global Climate Projections’:
“Cold episodes are projected to decrease significantly in a future warmer climate. ”
and also:
“It is very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in a future warmer climate.”
Next weekend, another special heat wave will hit the East Coast.
Well, to paraphrase Monty Python’s Flying Circus, it is rather “stating the bleedin obvious!” One does not need to be a rocket scientist, or even a climate scientist to make a claim like that, surely? We are in an interglacial, the last one 125,000 years ago was warmer than today, (IPCC SPM AR4 so it’s official) & as I understand it, so was the one before that. So surely that doesn’t take computer models or scientists to make a suggestion that we shouldn’t be surprised that the planet could warm up a little more before the next ice age cometh? After all we could be on borrowed time! Having been using the holidays to catch up yet again on epsiodes of BBC’s wonderful Earth Story hosted by Aubery Manning, in which beneficial Carbon Dioxide is mentioned in every other sentence, one cannot help but wonder what all the fuss is about from a scientific perspective, but what a difference when you insert the political perspective! True the good programme is on a digital channel at mid-day & unlikely to be watched by the majority, it is too dull & not enough rip-roaring action is going on & tales of who’s sleeping with who & have they had falsies inserted, or is their horoscope similar to yours, far more important than the history of the planet I dare say!
Oh, & hasn’t the good Dr Puchauri been a busy boy over the last few years, building his millions & his empire using the IPCC to do it with his Big-Oil connections deeper than Exon’s ever has been? Visit EU Referendum for an overview. Looks to me like he has been using a few “useful idiots” of his own.
For me, Piers Corbyn may be self-promoting, but if he doesn’t do it who precisely will? We’re all in the same boat there. His forecasts do seem to have a reasonable degree of accuracy, certainly in the long-term department, but then again it may depend upon who is setting the parameters for accuracy & long-term! So far he’s doing better than the Met Office, & that surely hurts the official channels. What he does say tho sounds like rational common sense, something that left the BBC, the MSM, & these shores manny years ago. It must be so frustrating that with £Ms of taxpayers’ dosh being spent on hardwear & softwear & they still get it wrong over long-term, & even short-term forecasts. No mention of snow & ice was made by the Met Office more than a few days before it happened, no change there then. Yes it’s time for the privatisation of the Met Office & the BBC to be put on the political agenda at once. BTW, the “long-term average” of 1961-1990 temperature is utterly derisible in terms of Earth Story & climate.
Peter Hearnden (01:26:57) :
I take it you don’t like it that Piers Corbyn gets it right far more often than the Met Office on all timescales from a week onwards.
As for your question “Work for Piers do you you”. Well the answer is no. In fact I haven’t seen him for about 40 years, when we both graduated in physics from Imperial College. And he was far brighter than me; one of those in the very top-flight.
Furthermore, it was seeing him in “The Great Global Warming Swindle” that made me start questioning the AGW propaganda; and that led me to realise it was a scientific fraud and a scam.
‘Stephen’ oh, yes, it is unusual (these days…) to see 14 days snow cover where you are. That, surely, is the point? And, yes, this is weather not climate. If we saw a trend towards more snowy winters (which would take decades to be established) you know what? I wouldn’t, for a second, question it was happening.
Anyway, here, on Dartmoor, Devon, we’ve had a few days with a cm or so of snow on the ground and quite a bit of frost but Dec 1981 this isn’t – and it’s nothing like as cold as Feb 85. Today it’s pouring with rain and cold. That’s weather for you.
LIke a few others in different parts of the UK, here in Edinburgh, I can’t remember a fortnight of snow and ice lying on the ground before. My street is still barely passable as the heavy snow of last week has frozen in place. The temperature here has hovered between zero and -9 for the last 10 days, there have been snow flurries on about 5 of these days, and as I type, it is snowing again.
The fact is we can’t explain anything we’re reciveing. And it’s a travasty that we can’t…
I’ve just emailed this letter to the Daily Telegraph:
As we wait for the next blast of Arctic weather it’s obvious that
once again the Met Office has got it spectacularly wrong. But their
mistakes have a clear pattern: their mistaken predictions are always
for warm weather and never for cold. Maybe it’s not surprising, as the
head of the Met Office is a prominent environmentalist.
In March 2000 the Independent printed a report headed: “Snowfalls
are now just a thing of the past”. A quote: “According to Dr David
Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU)
of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall
will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
As one who – like most people in the UK and US – believe that
climate change is natural, I rest my case.
“Peter Hearnden (00:45:04) :
Yes, it’s been cold in the UK for a few weeks, but here in my part at least we’ve seen very little snow. We have had a freezing rain event of some note (for us) but this winter is far from some white Armageddon.
I think Dr Viner and the article is (like all the science) broadly right. Over time snow will be seen as being more and more exceptional – for weather enthusiasts in the UK this spell of weather this is indeed an exciting and unusual event, pointing out that reality. Of course it wil still snow in the mountains, and Scotland but in lowland England much less so.”
I think you are too young to remember the 1960’s – 1970’s period. I don’t recall living in Scotland then nor in the “mountains” and I can assure you the “weather” was cold. It snowed, it froze, there was ice on pavements and roads (Not salted) and “Jack Frost” visited many times, so many in fact it was a feature of the schooling at the time.
“Peter Hearnden”,
It has been unusual to see 14 days of consecutive snowcover in northern England since the end of the Little Ice Age. We’ve not been above 3c for two weeks, whole suburbs are housebound due to the failure of councils to do their job properly (backed up by the egotists at the Met Office who still trust their AGW models and so issued their ridiculous mild winter forecast).
Peter Hearnden (02:43:23) :
Anyway, here, on Dartmoor, Devon, we’ve had a few days with a cm or so of snow on the ground and quite a bit of frost but Dec 1981 this isn’t – and it’s nothing like as cold as Feb 85. Today it’s pouring with rain and cold. That’s weather for you.”
Mostly moist and sometimes windy. No surprise there.
Philip “I take it you don’t like it that Piers Corbyn gets it right far more often than the Met Office on all timescales from a week onwards.” Erm, no, what I don’t get is that you, the physicist graduate, present not an iota of evidence to back up those words – though the irony of that isn’t lost on me.
Present some evidence, some verificaion of his forecasts, and I’ll take notice, otherwise I’m afraid you’re just arm waving.
Peter Hearnden
You clearlydo not know your subject(s). I suggest you go away for a little while and read the life and times of Piers C; Like the fact that he built his business on gambling against his own forecasts and that the arbitrators of his bets were the MetOff. I suggest you also might choose to disclose your locality. Might I suggest coastal, SW england perhaps. A little more thought and a little les BS would give you a lot more credibilty. Take a break!!
Reply: … After your blatantly racist post I removed yesterday and these rather offensive, unsubstantiated, and false allegations against Anthony today you may soon find yourself on a permanent timeout. ~ ctm
I am not a racist. A culturist would be a better term. You need to zip up your pants because your PC is showing. You sound like the “actor” in Crichton’s book. [snip]
Reply: I seriously have better things to do than waste my time debating what is PC and what is not with you. It being 3 am here it is time for me to go to bed. You are a guest here, please behave appropriately or leave. ~ ctm.
Sorry peter I posted before the last one appeared but that doesn’t change what I said. I friends in your area and I know exactly what the weather is generally like. I suggest that you look up the records for the SW going back to the LIA. It will give you a better idea of what you can expect in terms of climate. I love this debate about climate and weather. Climate is quoted by daily temps and yearly temps as well as other elements of the weather. So exactly when do these daily/annual measurements of weather automatically turn into climate and how will you know when the climate has justed started on a downward trend as opposed to turning down for a ‘short period’ of time and how will you know when the climate has turned up ‘for a long period of time’. Oh and yes I know the planet has warmed since the last ice age and I know it will cool before the next one.
Stephen Richards, again, please lets see the evidence. I’m not, I’m afraid, covinced by uncorroborated assertions – with jibes or not.
Btw, I said where I live. Where are you?
Peter Hearnden (02:43:23) :
The point Peter, is that if you took the time to talk to people that lived through the ’30s & ’40s, you’d find that the current conditions are NOT unusual, even in the last century.
DaveE.
Peter Hearnden (02:43:23) :
“Today it’s pouring with rain and cold.”
Exactly as Piers and co foretold at the start of December. How do I know? Because I, like many others, subscribe to and rely upon his forecasts.
If he was even moderately inaccurate we would stop paying. Forthwith.
Well, we are certainly feeling the effects of global warming over here… right now it is -13C.
I live ~30km south of Oslo, Norway, close to the Oslo fjord and at 150m elevation. Consider the following official temperature forecast for my location for the first few days if 2010 (scroll down a bit to see the graph)
http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Buskerud/R%C3%B8yken/L%C3%B8v%C3%A5s/long.html
Looks like the temperature will be hovering around -20C for a while…., it must be global warming. “Normal” temperature would be about -4C.
My backup of the graph
http://arnholm.org/wuwt/weather/forecast_jan2010.gif
We also got ~35cm of “white stuff” overnight between the 24-25 December so the snowblower I gave myself for Christmas was well received, and put to use at once 🙂
Usually, the months with most snow is January/February/March…
I was born in the UK, but have lived in Canada for over 50 yeras. We know all about keeping a modern transportation system going in winter. Two things to note on this subject. First it costs a lot of money. Second, a lot of the money must be spent up front; if one is not ready for winter by the equinox, it is already too late. With the UK government officially supporting AWG, it is going to be very difficult for local governments to get enough funds so as to be ready for significant snowfalls in the UK. Precisely what this means, if and when a 21st century countrry has a degraded transportation system for significant periods of time, I have no idea.
I think there’s one important point regarding the UK weather/climate. This current cold and snowy weather is not an isolated event, but rather part of a trend lasting some years.
There’s no question that, since the 1960’s, the UK climate became noticeably warmer, and some time around the nineties there was no snow at all. This warming may have been linked to global warming, but it may also be linked to the cleaner air we enjoy since the Clean Air Acts back in the fifties or sixties. Whatever the cause, it made life considerably more pleasant. But it probably wouldn’t last.
My general impression is that the UK climate has been getting colder since the early noughties. The last real heat wave was around 2003. We’ve had several cold summers. We’ve had significant snow every year for maybe the last six years. The snow appears to be getting heavier and it’s staying longer due to the freezing conditions.
Although it’s just my personal impression and it’s certainly not scientific, this cooling in the UK climate corresponds fairly well with the global temperature, which has been slowly falling for the last few years.
I certainly don’t want a warmer world. But a cooling world may eventually destroy this great delusion. It will force the climate scientists to confront a horrifying possibility: that, for whatever reasons, they have got it spectacularly wrong.
Chris
Bob (02:48:28) :
“Like a few others in different parts of the UK, here in Edinburgh, I can’t remember a fortnight of snow and ice lying on the ground before.”
Bob, as a local to Edinburgh, perhaps you could ring your local Edinburgh Royal Observatory and enquire why they stop recording temperatures from 1990
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/reference/03/031607
or why records from the other Edinburgh/Turnhouse were obliterated from year 2000.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/reference/03/031600
I would presume as a resident of Scotland it is your right to know.