I’ve mentioned this solar data on WUWT several times, it bears repeating again. Yesterday, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center released their latest data and graph of the interplanetary geomagnetic index (Ap) which is a proxy for the activity of the solar dynamo. Here is the data provided by SWPC. Note the graph, which I’ve annotated below.
At a time when many predicted a ramp up in solar activity, the sun remains in a funk, spotless and quiet. The Ap value, for the second straight month, is “3”. The blue line showing the smoothed value, suggests the trend continues downward. To get an idea of how significant this is in our history, take a look at this data (graph produced by me) from Dr. Leif Svalgaard back to the 1930’s.
The step change in October 2005 is still visible and the value of 3.9 that occurred in April of this year is the lowest for the entire dataset at that time. I’m hoping Dr. Svalgaard will have updated data for us soon.
Click for a larger image
Why is this important? Well, if Svensmark is right, and Galactic Cosmic Rays modulated by the sun’s magnetic field make a change in cloud cover on Earth, increasing it during low solar magnetic activity, we are in for some colder times.
There’s a presentation by Jasper Kirkby, CLOUD Spokesperson, CERN, which shows what we currently know about the correlations between Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR’s) and variations in the climate.
The CLOUD experiment uses a cloud chamber to study the theorized link between GCR’s and cloud formation in Earth’s atmosphere. Kirkby talks about the results from the first CLOUD experiment and the new CLOUD experiment and what it will deliver on the intrinsic connection between GCR’s and cloud formation. This is from the Cern, one of Europe’s most highly respected centers for scientific research.
Kirkby’s one hour video presentation is hosted here. It is well worth your time to view it.
h/t to Russ Steele
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Anybody know the time lag before the cold spell starts, acording to Svensmark work? Should we expect it for this winter (or later)?
Sorry, just found Invariant’s response at 11:15:43
The most striking thing about this thread is the exposure of the myth of “settled” science.
Gore states arctic ice to be gone in 5-15 years. Wow is he just so smart. I guess he knows just about everything.
The last suit you’ll wear, has no pockets.
You can’t take it with you, when you go.
When that hand full of dirt, goes back into the earth.
What your worth, only heaven knows.
“http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm
Wow, our firewall/proxy at work classifies that site as hate speech.”
Same here. We use Websense.
I recall Mr. Giella running one of the earliest skeptic websites years ago when he was KN4LF. It had great Florida weather facts. He shut it down though, eventually.
Ray et. al.,
The question about Solar activity affecting the interior of the earth is one I’ve posed a number of times over the last 6 months and have never gotten a response.
The question of tectonic activity hadn’t occurred to me. My question is whether it might not account for the heat of the core.
The solar wind was discovered by the Russian Luna 9 spacecraft in 1979. Its effects on the ionosphere and satellites have been the focus of research.
It comprises thermally ejected protons and electrons – the electrons travel 39 times as fast as the protons (square root of the mass ratio). When electrons and protons travel at different speeds you have an electric current. You also have an associated magnetic field – Love & Marriage, Abbott & Costello.
The core of the earth is a 2,000 mile diameter ball of mostly iron. It rotates – once a day. As I remember from 5th grade, when a ferrous metal rotates in a magnetic field electrical currents are induced. It heats up. The thermal inertia of the core would smooth transient effects but might cause long term variations in internal temperature.
I haven’t heard of any identified proxies for solar wind so we’re stuck with info going back to 79.
All studies I have seen for the effects of solar output on earth weather have been about microwave and up radiation. I don’t believe the idea of solar wind coupling has been looked at.
The Ap Index average for the first nine days of December is 1. The no-sunspots zone is entered at a monthly Ap Index average of 2. While the Ap Index is falling, the Oulu neutron count will continue rising up to a year later.
REPLY: Citation for that data?
I have never studied the sun or followed the physics, except in the most general terms, of those who do.
Frankly I have no idea what this means, if it means anything at all. Perhaps it does but our instrumentation only goes back some fifty years. Before that we have only basic observations and supposed proxies most of which are about as reliable as trying to tell past temperature by a tree.
However I can predict with a high degree of certainty that this will cause immense interest, discussion and disputation amongst solar physicists. astronomers and others who study the sun. Some of it quite bad tempered.
And that for all the excitement the great ‘Consensus’ will be ‘ We don’t know’ and ‘Time will tell’
Bit different from so called climate science you know.
Probably because these are the real hard headed people of science: not poseurs, charlatans and mountebanks. Believe it or not they can actually add and subtract and even understand statistical analysis.
Which is more than many of their counterparts in the upper echelons of climate science seem able to do.
Understand I do not mean to insult the many genuine scientists who do good work on weather and climate, only the fraudsters, the forgers and the High Priests of AGW.
And as for old Sol I foretell that we shall see what we shall see. And I didn’t even consult my Tarot cards.
Kindest Regards.
Some research has shown a correlation between solar minimums and earthquakes.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/buvw2tq081013210/
It says in part: “(1) Earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years of solar activity. Generally, the earthquake activities are relatively less during the peak value years of solar activity, some say, around the period when magnetic polarity in the solar polar regions is reversed. ”
I believe that there will also eventually be shown to be a correlation between solar minimums and volcanic activity. This may be the actual causal link behind the observed correlation between solar minimums and lower global temperatures, not Total Solar Irradiance or cosmic rays (per Svensmark).
Roy Lofquist (13:53:45) :
Charged particles (from the solar wind) going through the magnetic field of the earth induces a current and such current generates a magnetic field. Most of the time it reinforces the original magnetic field, generating a dynamo. The induced magnetic field is what protects the surface of the earth during pole reversal… good thing it’s there!
I really do wish you guys would stop reporting on the solar downturn, because I have no dount that somewhere, there are politicians already scheming to create a tax for the solar issue, an issue they will invarilbly try to pin on George Bush. Can’t you hear it now?
“During his tenure of office, Bush did precisely nothing about solar emissions!”
Hrmm, this was meant to be tongue-in-cheek on my part, but I’ll seriously guarantee you this: if this solar trend continues, there will soon be new taxes proposed as a result. It’s a rule of the universe (perhaps its only one): Politicians favor new taxes at only two times; when there is a problem, and when there isn’t.
And on another serious note: Thank you very much for tracking this issue, and all the work you’ve done. Without the “skeptic” blogs, I think we’d be looking at a far, far graver likely result from the Copenhagen nonsense.
Roy,
The coupling between the solar wind intensity (or the solar activity for the same reason) with the earth activity seems very interesting because as I see it, it’s very hard to explain. The idea you propose seems to be a valid one, but based on my intuition the magnitude of the direct effect seems to be much smaller than what’s required to have a sensible warming of the core. An indirect effect might have a higher effect. When we create a current in the core, there is a torque applied to it. The torque is small too, but this might make the core of the earth try to spin at a different angular frequency than the mantle, which is not metallic. The core, but especially the mantle have a tremendous angular momentum and the result of this friction might cause warming at the core/mantle interface. I didn’t go thru the numbers yet, but so far, this makes sense.
Also another idea than went thru my mind, but I also think it has an insignificant magnitude would be a direct heating. We know that the only solar particles that penetrate to the core of the earth are the solar neutrinos. Their production also fluctuates along with the solar cycle (showing that the burning process in the sun also correlates to the solar activity cycle) and they do carry an important amount of the total energy output. Anyway, even if they do penetrate the earth to the core, the absorption optical depth of neutrinos is much larger than the earth radius, so they don’t do much heating. The earth is pretty much transparent to neutrinos.
I’m starting the next big crisis; anthropogenic sunspot depletion. ASD is caused by all of Al Gore’s mythical solar energy plants.
I don’t understand the point here.
If low solar activity = colder temperatures, and we now have warmer temperatures despite the low solar activity, doesn’t that make the argument for AGW stronger?
And don’t miss the most chilling (literally) prediction of all based on a careful study of sunspot intensity. This prediction was originally submitted and rejected for publication in 2005 (Sunspots May Vanish by 2015), but has been coming true ever since. The earth appears to be headed toward a period of dramatic cooling, at present, due to reduced solar activity
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This is a bit disconcerting.
I think it would be a hoot to find that the Mayans had it right and that 12/21/2012 turns out to be the first day of a VERY long winter.
Do folks realize warmers are going to seize upon 2010 which as it stands now may in fact zoom past 2007 at least in amplitude?
It would be interesting to plot hurricane/storm activity along with solar activity over the last ten years I looks like they would match up pretty well .
Ole Humlum has a quick review of climate changes in Europe following the MWP at the following link:
http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateAndHistory.htm
Seems Solar Mimimums and their resulting weather/climate changes take as long to develop as Solar Maximums.
Another possibility is that our planet is being heated from the little ice age just like a cold cabin can be heated from a fireplace; a perfectly constant sun will warm up our planet until the heat radiated to space is balanced by the heat input from the sun. This does not explain the origin of the little ice age, however, while we are aware of the short ocean cycles, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ~1 yr period and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) ~30 yr period, can we be certain that longer ocean cycles do not exist? What about a Little Ice Age Oscillation (LIAO) with a period of several hundred years? 🙂
Peter Taylor (11:09:03) :
Congrats on finally getting some cover in the MSM Peter. Long may it continue 😉
DaveE.
Ray,
I think the cause and effect is the opposite. To posit that earth has a magnetic field implies that there is some permanent magnet involved. The core is molten – no permanent magnet. What we perceive as the earth’s magnetic field is actually the interaction of the rotating core with the magnetic field entwined with the solar wind.
Hypothesis – the historical reversal of the magnetic poles occurred when the SW went to zero at some point. The orientation of the field (NS) is very sensitive to initial conditions. A DC motor can be started CW or CCW with a small initial push in either direction.
The main point is that I wonder if the SW, interacting with the rotating core is making a significant contribution to the internal temp that has been overlooked.
It’s been 45 years since I worked the equations and my old textbooks have turned to dust. I don’t have the time or the energy to reeducate myself. I was hoping that somebody who was more current with the numbers could offer any insight.
Regards,
Roy
Has anyone seen any papers in the literature smoothing sunspot numbers with very-long-term-moving-averages and correlating to temperature? The longest moving averages I have seen in the literature were 11 years on the duration of solar cycles (not the actual sunspot numbers). Take a look at the remarkable correlation between a 75-year moving average of normalized SIDC monthly sunspot numbers vs. HadCrut3v temp data I generated using the woodfortrees.org site:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nOY5jaKJXHM/SxHvhQgGmzI/AAAAAAAAAOU/vj-CcEdOZPs/s1600/from_1875.png
The plot seems to suggest a 20 year lag time between solar magnetic activity and global temps. Has anyone seen any literature using very-long-term moving averages or other smoothing over periods exceeding 20 years?
P. Hager (12:02:12) :
The radio bands are nicely divided up.
HF = 3MHz – 30MHz
VHF = 30MHz – 300MHz
UHF = 300MHz – 3GHz
& so on.
DaveE.