From the Corbett Report:
Retired climatologist Dr. Tim Ball was interviewed to discuss the significance of the recently leaked emails and documents from the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University. These emails reveal stunning behind-the-scenes details, and Dr. Ball shares his insights on what they show. Of interest is what he has to say about the Wegman report.
The interview was conducted in studio, by telephone and runs about 10 minutes.
See the video below.
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Surely there is someone around who will take this to court? I’d donate to a legal challenge on the evidence.
Hmm.. No options available on QCLN … This chart:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=qcln&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=4&maval=25&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=8&lf3=512&type=4&size=3&state=15&sid=2605175&style=320&time=3&freq=6&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=5577&mocktick=1
Shows a large volume increase, but the price does not plunge until the 19th. As though someone was dumping volume before the news got to the market maker or the market maker was dumping inventory prior to letting the public know. Very unusual… But the whole market dropped that next day so the price action is in keeping with a market maker responding to the broader market moves.
And the volume has several spikes (this is 5 minute ticks) as though different parties got notice… But it also happens after a long run up as we’ve had a “failure to advance” and a return to the SMA Simple Moving Average stack from the bottom (after a failed advance). The “Last Exit” call for timid traders. It is possible this is an ordinary trader who is a little inexperienced and could not call the first “exit call” at the top of the failure to advance. (Which I did call, btw…)
That chart will only work for a few days. They only keep the daily detail data for about 2 weeks, so if you want his data, you need to save the image.
I did a quick look at some other alternative energy ETFs (TAN, FAN, PBW) but the volume and price move the next day. HOWEVER … GEX the EUROPEAN alternative energy fund has a broad large volume run … though it is less ‘out of character’ with prior months volume:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=gex&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=4&maval=25&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=8&lf3=512&type=4&size=3&state=15&sid=2696472&style=320&time=3&freq=6&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=3114&mocktick=1
The volume is also a bit later in the day. Like someone’s broker was dumping first one, then the other…
This is just odd. The stocks inside QCLN are biased toward semiconductors. It’s a novice tool for “clean energy” not something a market smart trader would use. The individual stocks inside QCLN do not show a big dump (some even went up).
So things like CREE and STP (Suntech) and FSLR are LED lighting / solar oriented, but National Semi? And the other “mostly semiconductor” companies?
This just looks like something being dumped by a novice at trading (to whom it was sold as a ‘green basket’ without looking inside.)
GEX is a ‘better basket’ but still has overlap (FSLR, CREE, ITRI, WFR -MEMC) so owning both as ‘diversification’ is another ‘newbie’ mistake. It also includes Vestas wind and some other Euro oriented holdings.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=GEX
After looking at this, I suspect a modestly “low clue” holder was dumping positions that the market maker could easily cover in the much higher trade volume underlaying stocks, so he took the volume and moved on. The “novice” was dumping, but for no real good reason other than perhaps a return to the SMA stack after a “head and shoulders” failure to advance pattern. A fairly simple trader pattern (one of the first folks learn). GEX has been nearly dead flat for 6 months, so I don’t know why anyone would be trading it now anyway.
Frankly, while it’s an amusing “sidebar”; and maybe someone in the UK was dumping their personal positions, it looks more to me like no real news here. The stocks in the basket didn’t move the needle on this volume and there is little to indicate a savvy trader doing some kind of exploit. Just a thinly traded ETF being liquidated by a mediocre hand… though on a pretty good day to do it.
This will end my analysis of this particular stock “issue”. I just see much “there there”…
That ought to have said ” I just DO NOT see much there there “..
The media battle is the crucial one.
Here are some headlines with links:
“The Day Global Warming Stood Still”
Posted 11/20/2009 07:46 PM ET
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=513195
The above was also qouted verbatim, alas, guess where? – The Tehran Times
“In the trenches on climate change, hostility among foes”
Stolen e-mails reveal venomous feelings toward skeptics
By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, November 22, 2009
The Christian Science Monitor
“Hacked climate emails: conspiracy or tempest in a teapot? “
By Pete Spotts | 11.21.09
http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2009/11/21/hacked-climate-emails-conspiracy-or-tempest-in-a-teapot/
The Wall Street Journal
NOVEMBER 23, 2009.
Climate Emails Stoke Debate
Scientists’ Leaked Correspondence Illustrates Bitter Feud over Global Warming
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125883405294859215.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
The New York Times
“Hacked E-Mail Is New Fodder for Climate Dispute”
ANDREW C. REVKIN
Published: November 20, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/21/science/earth/21climate.html
Australia.to
“The Science is Far from Settled”
Written by Barnaby Joyce Monday, 23 November 2009 15:57
http://www.australia.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16660:barnaby-joyce-the-science-is-far-from-settled&catid=223:barnaby-joyce&Itemid=122
From the above “..the emails that have come to light in the media overnight show Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the US Centre for Atmospheric Research and a supporter of the theory of man made climate change, stated in one email, “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment, and it is a travesty that we can’t.”
Considering that Mr Trenberth was the lead author of the 1995, 2001 and 2007 Scientific Assessment of Climate Change reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this statement is completely damning of the current premis for an ETS. It is, however, a very illuminating insight and honest appraisal of the science that underpins the current lack of balance in the Australian emission trading debate. If Mr Trenberth can not explain cooling when we should have warming then it appears ludicrous that Mr Rudd and Minister Wong can. Furthermore, the implementation of a new Australian Tax to fix an uncertainty is insanity.
Patrick Davis (22:20:42) :
Got some coverage here in Australia on SMH…
That’s basically a rehash of the AP article. You need to send letters to the editor, your legislators and all your friends urging them to do the same. Over at Jeff Id’s blog we have a thread going that contains a few ideas on what to write:
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/11/22/time-to-do-the-hard-work/
We need to get people to read the stuff for themselves and then have them start channeling Howard Beale.
Ruddy Rudd (and our Ruddy John Key is no better, if not worse) – both would be better served as Polar Bear fodder –
“Warming to the climate con job
* By Tim Blair
* From: The Daily Telegraph November 23, 2009 12:00AM
DISPLAYING his usual keen grasp of science, and not in any way seeking a distraction from events involving certain Sri Lankan boating enthusiasts, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd last week addressed the Parliament.
There had been, Rudd revealed, a crucial incident in Melbourne.
It was an incident that would shape our national future and determine core government policy. An incident pivotal in Australia’s history. An incident that, were it not for Rudd’s insight, may have passed with little notice.
Melbourne, he told Parliament, had experienced a hot November evening.
This is apparently all the evidence Rudd needs to be convinced anew of global warming, which previously was understood to be global. Now that it’s fully contained within a city on Victoria’s southern coast…”
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/warming-to-the-climate-con-job/story-e6frezz0-1225801796426
E.M.Smith (22:47:58)
Aw, nothing like asking an expert to puncture your balloon. I didn’t understand much of that, but I’m impressed. So at best, it’s just a veggie-burger. Ih well.
… and still the BBC won;t report any of this, prefering to delete all comments made on Richard Black’s blog.
The BBC is funded by a government charter, so has to keep the government sweet each time it’s up for renewal. I can’t believe therte is not one real journalist in the BBC left with any integrity.
This just in:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230122/How-climate-change-scientists-dodged-sceptics.html
… and the Mail have even made an editorial comment!
“Could it be that the pernicious culture of spin and deception which ruined our belief in politicians has now infected the world of science?
Researchers at one of the world’s leading climate change centres stand accused of manipulating data to exaggerate the extent of global warming – a deception which would represent a scandalous betrayal of trust.
We rely on scientists to give us the truth about these complex and crucial issues. If they are now twisting the facts to support their own doomsday theories, they are no better than Tony Blair and Alastair Campbell, who fabricated the ‘dodgy dossier’ of lies on which we were dragged into the disastrous Iraq war. ”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1230104/MAIL-COMMENT-Bad-science-climate-change.html
This morning Lord Lawson Conservative party elder statesman calls for indepent revue of CRU data on BBC radio 4’s prestigious breakfast programme. There will probably be a podcast of the programme available later.
Lawson’s also got coverage in the Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6927598.ece
It’s about time the Sydney Morning Herald said something about this issue. I’ve been waiting since Firday for a comment. Their silence was deafening. They waited until 2:14pm on Monday to say anything? I know it was a hot weekend (and thank the Lord for the blissful cold change that hit my place at 1am) but I managed to read about this issue for hours. I then emailed all 12 of my NSW senators declaring my intention to never vote for a parliamentarian who votes for an ETS this week. I long for the day journalism returns to its unbiased roots and leaves behind the notion that they can make the news rather than report it.
As for the senators, the only ones whose staff have replied are the Nationals senators, Heffernan and Nash. I’m sure all Aussie politicians this week have been bombarded with correspondence on this issue with the vote coming up. Let’s hope for some “robust” and honest debate in parliament!
“I went to the web site this clip comes from. Do you really want to be associated with 9/11 Truthers?”
Since I thought the reason for this blog was the pursuit of scientific truth, then I, for one, don’t really mind. After all since when has the pursuit of truth, wherever that may lead, been a bad thing? Whether it be climatology or the search for who knew what when on 9/11 and who was derelict, or worse, in their duty to protect America that day, (they failed BTW, and NOBODY has been fired for that, let alone prosecuted) the pursuit of truth is the same.
Who is going to give us the truth? Since both chairmen and the chief legal council for the official 9/11 commission report all now have stated publicly that the report is NOT the truth and that they were hampered in their investigation and that the report does NOT give a truthful account of what actually happened on that tragic day. This is NOT abscure conspiracy theory. This is the heads of the OFFICIAL 9/11 commission themselves stating that their own report is not a truthful account of what happened that day! If THEY don’t believe it. why should I or anyone else? I believe that we should have a full and independent inquiry to establish the truth.
After all, like the climate theories, a huge amount of policy is based on what the “official” truth is. IF (big IF) the “official” truth is wrong, then how can we allow policy to go unchallenged, or the “truth” that these policies are based on to go unchallenged?
Just as there are hundreds of different climate change theories, there are hundreds of different 9/11 conspiracy theories, most of them very poor indeed. The problem is, there is no single conspiracy theory that clearly and unambiguously and obviously tells the whole truth, INCLUDING the official 9/11 commission report. In fact, that report is a rather poor conspiracy theory. Like wise, we cannot yet reliably claim any one single climate theory is the ultimate and correct truth. Unlike what the alarmists are claiming, there are competing theories and several are plausible and somewhat match the perceived observable evidence, hence no consensus.
But since when has the pursuit of truth been a bad thing? Only if you are politically uncomfortable with what that truth may unveil.
I fully support linking to the clip.
The lamestream media line on this is still, “a few emails taken out of context by cyber terrorists and deniers intent on scuppering a deal to save the planet at Copenhagen. Oh those poor scientists, see what they have to put up with?”
The media are doing their level best to downplay the significance of the data which has been uncovered and to distract or discourage their viewers and readers from looking at this themselves.
With the code being examined, and found sorely wanting, how long will that line hold?
Even if this furore does blow over, it will taint all future climate pronouncements. Everything from Hadcrut will now be under suspicion, with more balanced media outlets (ie, not the BBC) asking if this is kosher data or more manipulated detritus.
The stink of manipulation and fraud will hang over East Anglia Uni like the smog from a Chinese power station (the very power station championed by climatologists, as they strive to shut down Western industry).
.
Lawson also in Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/6634282/Lord-Lawson-calls-for-public-inquiry-into-UEA-global-warming-data-manipulation.html
Wow. Yes, just look at that spike in Green shares on the 18th, just before this all became public. Someone not only hacked Hadcrut, they also made a killing on the stockmarket.
http://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/etf/ETFpricehistory.aspx?Ticker=QCLN
Well, they only have themselves to blame. Mr T Blair became a capitalist-socialist and celebrated the champaign-socialist lifestyle – and this is capitalism at its best (worst). Nothing like a little insider trading to make a tidy profit and then run for the Caribbean beaches.
.
Lord Lawson Calls for a High-level Inquiry into Hadley/CRU
In the Times today
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6927598.ece
This is from the end of the article:
“Moreover, the scientific basis for global warming projections is now under scrutiny as never before. The principal source of these projections is produced by a small group of scientists at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), affiliated to the University of East Anglia.
Last week an apparent hacker obtained access to their computers and published in the blogosphere part of their internal e-mail traffic. And the CRU has conceded that the at least some of the published e-mails are genuine.
Astonishingly, what appears, at least at first blush, to have emerged is that (a) the scientists have been manipulating the raw temperature figures to show a relentlessly rising global warming trend; (b) they have consistently refused outsiders access to the raw data; (c) the scientists have been trying to avoid freedom of information requests; and (d) they have been discussing ways to prevent papers by dissenting scientists being published in learned journals.
There may be a perfectly innocent explanation. But what is clear is that the integrity of the scientific evidence on which not merely the British Government, but other countries, too, through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, claim to base far-reaching and hugely expensive policy decisions, has been called into question. And the reputation of British science has been seriously tarnished. A high-level independent inquiry must be set up without delay.
It is against all this background that I am announcing today the launch of a new high-powered all-party (and non-party) think-tank, the Global Warming Policy Foundation (www.thegwpf.org), which I hope may mark a turning-point in the political and public debate on the important issue of global warming policy. At the very least, open and reasoned debate on this issue cannot be anything but healthy. The absence of debate between political parties at the present time makes our contribution all the more necessary.”
…………………………….
Lord Lawson of Blaby was Chancellor of the Exchequer 1983-89. He will be speaking at an Institute of Economic Affairs debate on climate change at the Institute of Directors in London today.
“David (01:43:19) :
Lawson also in Telegraph:
http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fearth%2Fenvironment%2Fglobalwarming%2F6634282%2FLord-Lawson-calls-for-public-inquiry-into-UEA-global-warming-data-manipulation.html”
I cannot believe this idiot has been granted a Lordship.
Regarding Lord Lawson,
I watched him on Newsnight (7.4.2008, I checked!) with Jeremy Paxman, when he said: “There has been no global warming at all this century”.
The best bit was the look on Jeremy Paxman’s face (Jeremy is a hugely respected, journalist, and presenter, and generally very knowledgeable).
Jeremy looked stunned.
He turned to Chris Ripley, (I expect he was looking for a countering statement) who replied “it is factually correct that the temperature has not gone up this century.”
Jeremy said: “This is amazing.”
It is rare for Jeremy not to be on top of his subject matter, and it is obvious that he had no idea that there was an issue. That is how deep the ingraining goes. Journalist’s in isolation from other “credible” opinions can easily accept that it is a one way street.
Alex
RE: QCLN comments. Sorry about the busted link to CNN Money. I guess the javascript requires everyone to do a new search. Just go to: http://money.cnn.com/ and type in the symbol. That will get you to the tech/charting page and you can recreate it suit yourself. The “advanced charting” option lets you see it hourly, etc.
There was a minor uptick in price in the few days leading up to the high volume trade on the 18th, which was accompanied by a price drop. But as has been mentioned it might just be coincidental (and very lucky for someone ). However, now that the dirty laundry has been on the line since then, I’ll be very interested in any further financial news on this. If it starts to look like a run ( from these kinds of ETF’s and other “green ” companies ) it will be all over FoxBiz, Bloomberg, et al. Call it the CO2 bubble bursting; kind of like all the fizz bubbling out of your club soda.
David (23:38:10) :
“This just in:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230122/How-climate-change-scientists-dodged-sceptics.html”
The title should have been:
How climate change scientists dodged sceptics and the IPCC dodged politics!
Patrick Davis (04:50:23) :
“Lawson also in Telegraph:”
“I cannot believe this idiot has been granted a Lordship.”
I think you made a rush judgement here, which is bad reflection of you rather than Lord Lawson. As you may be aware he was Margaret Thatcher’s right hand financial man for number of years. They transformed UK from a ‘sick man’ of Europe to one of the best run economies of Europe. Political aversion is one thing, but calling a man ‘idiot’ is another.
Fascinating interview with Dr. Tim Ball.
Unfortunately the ‘Team’ of dwarfs has taken over.
“Who sees further a dwarf or a giant?
Surely a giant for his eyes are situated at a higher level than those of the dwarf. But if the dwarf is placed on the shoulders of the giant who sees further?”
Dwarfs of CRU failed to climb on shoulders of giants, even worse, they dug themselves into a hole.