While we find cooling trends now in RSS and UAH global data from 2002, the US contiguous temperature record for 2009 seems to be returning to very near the normal baseline for temperature in the last century.
From World Climate Report: Another Normal Year for U.S. Temperatures?
Early last January, when the final 2008 numbers were in for the U.S. annual average temperature, we ran an article titled “U.S. Temperatures 2008: Back to the Future?” in which we noted that “The temperature in 2008 dropped back down to the range that characterized most of the 20th century.”
2009 seems to be following in 2008’s footsteps.
The national average temperature had been elevated ever since the big 1998 El Niño, which was leading some folks to clamor that global warming was finally showing up in the U.S. temperature record. “Finally,” because prior to 1998, there was little sign that anything unusual was going on with U.S. average temperatures (Figure 1). The end of the record was hardly any different than any other portion of the record. The slight overall trend arose from a couple of cool decades at the start of the 20th century rather than any unusual warmth towards the end.
Figure 1. United States annual average temperature, 1895-1997 (data source: National Climate Data Center).
Then along came the 1998 El Niño, which raised both global and U.S. temperatures to record values, and our national temperatures remained elevated for 10 years thereafter (Figure 2). Instead of looking for some explanation of this unusual run of very warm years in the (naturally) changing patterns of atmospheric/ocean circulation in the Pacific Ocean, it was often chalked up to “global warming.”
Figure 2. United States annual average temperature, 1895-2007 (data source: National Climate Data Center).
But then something unexpected (by the global warming enthusiasts) happened in 2008—the U.S. annual average temperature returned to normal.
In reporting this in our World Climate Report article last January, we noted the drop in temperatures and wondered about the future:
But now, 2008 comes along and has broken this warm stranglehold. Perhaps this is an indication that the conditions responsible for the unusual string of warm years have broken down—and maybe they weren’t a sudden apparition of anthropogenic global warming after all.
Only time will tell for sure. But, at least for now, things seem like they have returned to a more “normal” state of being.
Now, 10 months have passed and we are starting to get a good idea of how 2009 is shaping up temperature-wise for the U.S. We may be jumping the gun a little here, because there are still two months (17%) of data still outstanding, and November has started out pretty warm across the West, but, in any case, Figure 3 shows the national temperature history for the first 10 months of the year.
Figure 3. United States January-October average temperature, 1895-2009 (data source: National Climate Data Center).
Thus far, 2009 is looking like another normal year—further indication that the warm period from 1998-2007 was an anomaly, rather than a step change to a new climate across the U.S. (be sure to check back in two months to see how the final 2009 numbers pan out).
No wonder the U.S. Senate is slow to get behind the need for restricting our fossil fuel-related energy supply in the name of climate change.
The Glory of the Arctic: Jupi Angootealuk.
“Jupi Angootealuk, 17, was stranded on the same ice floe as a polar bear and her two cubs.”
“That’s the glory of the Arctic,” Ms. Griffin said. “A 17-year-old young man and he’s seasoned enough that he was able to save his own life – so very resilient.
“It is amazing.”
…-
“Alone and adrift, teen refuses to give up
As the ice heaved and cracked beneath him and temperatures dipped below -20, teen hunter persevered for two days before rescuers parachuted onto the floes”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/alone-and-adrift-teen-refuses-to-give-up/article1357482/
Correlates to the deep solar minimum.
the clearest signal in this data is the PDO. warm mode up until the early 40’s, then cold until 1976, the warm until 2006-7, now shifting cold again. it’s a very visible cycle. recall that at the end of the last cold mode in the 70’s, the media was predicting a new ice age. now they predict a catastrophic warming.
the simple fact is that any trend that goes on for a long time tends to get extrapolated into the future, but, doing so with a cyclical system like this one leads to very bad guesses. it’s like trying to draw a trend line on a sin curve.
I think coinciding data on the trade winds, both westerlies and easterlies, and both jet streams, would be very telling. These winds are global and bring about weather that is global. The trade winds and path of the jet streams may have oscillations yet to be discovered. I believe these measures are the next mother lode.
Between this adjustment, which seems mildly insane in light of UHI, plus UHI, plus Hansen’s fantasy adjustments, all up of course, equals anthropogenic warming.
http://i42.tinypic.com/2luqma8.jpg
This is confusing to me.
So rising temps were due to El Nino and not poorly situated temp sensors?
And we are at normal temps despite neg PDO, neg AMO, minimum solar activity, increased volcanic activity?
The skier in me longs for those winters of yore (60s, 70s even 80s-years, not temps)
The last negative PDO saw greatly reduced noise. We may be there again. Prior to the second most recent positive PDO (e.g. pre 1920) I’m not sure I trust the data enough to comment on the relative level of noise.
There is a monumental difference between the Super El Nino and what we have right now in the Pacific. And the AMO is not exactly negative. It is more like in the middle. As for solar, no difference that matters. And I do believe that sensor drop out caused quite a bit of anomalous readings and have overestimated the warming due to the super El Nino.
Leone, this is the added value.
Once there will be a day, when McIntyre posts his own replication of HadCRUT and CA server will die upon strain of visitors.
Anthony —
In order to get 2009 to show using the NCDC link, you have used the “year to date” option, which gives Jan-Oct currently, for all years, and therefore excludes all Nov and Dec readings.
The complete data can be utilized using the “most recent 12 month period” option. This gives Nov-Oct. data for every year, which is just as good in principle as Jan-Dec, but gives a slightly different perspective. Interestingly, 2000 (which includes 11-12/99 but excludes 11-12/00) then becomes the record high year, but otherwise the graph is similar to the one you show.
While it’s conceivable that 98-07 may have been just anomalies, and 08-09 the return to the norm, I don’t see how anything more than 1998 could have been set off by the 98 El Nino, which is a only a 2- or 3- year cycle.
It seems more likely to me that only 98 was kicked up by an unusual El Nino, and that the warmish 99-07 figures either represent uncorrected UHI, etc., or else a genuine warm period.
According to NCDC, this is USHCNv2 data rather than USHCNv3. Why don’t they trust v3 yet?
Regarding Figure 2, it always amazes me that there are those who can’t see the multiyear impacts of major El Nino events (those that aren’t countered by volcanic aerosols).
That progression from Figure 1 to Figure 2 is remarkable.
Normal! OMG it must be our fault!
Vincent (06:14:25) :
Gordon Bennet.
Excellent example and question here.
Steve Keohane (06:51:41) :
Between this adjustment, which seems mildly insane in light of UHI, plus UHI, plus Hansen’s fantasy adjustments, all up of course, equals anthropogenic warming.
http://i42.tinypic.com/2luqma8.jpg
If we remove the obvious fudge factor of these adjustment the entire signal of warming is gone isn’t it?
Sorry to Vincent at (06:14:25) :
I should have read the earlier posts. I see you were being sarcastic.
Gordon Bennet of course is ‘who is your creator’- who posted at (05:56:17) :
morganovich (06:45:18) :
the clearest signal in this data is the PDO. warm mode up until the early 40’s, then cold until 1976, the warm until 2006-7, now shifting cold again. it’s a very visible cycle. recall that at the end of the last cold mode in the 70’s, the media was predicting a new ice age. now they predict a catastrophic warming.
And yet the PDO index has been positive for the last three months.
Seems we had a mild summer which in turns can be a brutal Winter. Not looking forward to it at all here in the Midwest.
Another normal year?! How is that going to help sell newspapers?
Phil. (07:59:48) :
“And yet the PDO index has been positive for the last three months.”
Phil– the PDO did turn positive in recent months, and the mid-2007 to mid 2009 cooling trend almost immediately abated. You are admitting to the clear correlation between PDO and temp. readings –i.e real data. That PDO correlation is the best correlation to actual data I have seen anyone come up with. Again, correlation is not causation, but there is strong circumstantial evidence. Oh, and 2007-2009 levels of that sinister CO2? Yes much higher than at the beginning of the cooling trend. You are hereby on record as admitting that whatever temperature affect CO2 has, it is far outweighed by the effect of the PDO. The only question left is whether CO2 has any measureable effect. That will take time and a lot of measurement data. But in the meantime we do have this area of agreement. Right Phil?
Phil, I don’t know how many times the PDO has to be explained. So instead of me saying it again and sounding like an old nag, please read a few articles on the PDO so you can get a better grasp on this oscillation between warm and cool phases versus El Nino and La Nina events and conditions.
Anthony, please publish the new report from Don Easterbrook:
Nov 10, 2009
New geologic evidence of past periods of oscillating, abrupt warming, and cooling
By Dr. Don Easterbrook from icecap.us?
I think it’s very significant.
Phil. (07:59:48) :
morganovich (06:45:18) :
the clearest signal in this data is the PDO. warm mode up until the early 40’s, then cold until 1976, the warm until 2006-7, now shifting cold again. it’s a very visible cycle. recall that at the end of the last cold mode in the 70’s, the media was predicting a new ice age. now they predict a catastrophic warming.
And yet the PDO index has been positive for the last three months.
Indeed the PDO for Sep/Oct/Nov posted 0.09 /0.52 / 0.27, quite normal to have a +ve spike in PDO Cool conditions when an EL Nino is present. See also the spikes in 2007 and 2005. The PDO is a very long decadal oscillation, looking at just 3 months of slightly +ve spiking is a little unwise!
OT – I haven’t seen any discussion of Sunspot 1030.
Is this spot a throwback to cycle 23, or is cycle 24 winding down and we’re seeing the beginnings of cycle 25?
El Nino does not affect every region in the same way. While on average, the global temperatures rise, there are many regions in which an El Nino leads to significant cooling. It’s just the way it affects the weather patterns. Thus not seeing a spike from the El Nino in say, Europe, is not that surprising.
The USA is only is small part of the world. Globally 2009 will be warmer than normal.