Since I’m not legally allowed to show the American Physical Society logo (they complained last time) this will have to do:
A GAGGLE IS NOT A CONSENSUS
You have recently received a letter from the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), purporting to convey a “consensus” of the scientific community that immediate and drastic action is needed to avert a climatic catastrophe.
We do not seek to make the scientific arguments here (we did that in an earlier letter, sent a couple of months ago), but simply to note that the claim of consensus is fake, designed to stampede you into actions that will cripple our economy, and which you will regret for many years. There is no consensus, and even if there were, consensus is not the test of scientific validity. Theories that disagree with the facts are wrong, consensus or no.
We know of no evidence that any of the “leaders” of the scientific community who signed the letter to you ever asked their memberships for their opinions, before claiming to represent them on this important matter.
We also note that the American Physical Society (APS, and we are physicists) did not sign the letter, though the scientific issues at stake are fundamentally matters of applied physics. You can do physics without climatology, but you can’t do climatology without physics.
The APS is at this moment reviewing its stance on so-called global warming, having received a petition from its membership to do so. That petition was signed by 160 distinguished members and fellows of the Society, including one Nobelist and 12 members of the National Academies. Indeed a score of the signers are Members and Fellows of the AAAS, none of whom were consulted before the AAAS letter to you.
Professor Hal Lewis, University of California, Santa Barbara
Professor Fred Singer, University of Virginia
Professor Will Happer, Princeton University
Professor Larry Gould, University of Hartford
Dr. Roger Cohen, retired Manager, Strategic Planning, ExxonMobil
List of 160 signers of the APS petition available at http://tinyurl.com/lg266u
Regarding the National Policy Statement on Climate Change of the APS Council: An Open Letter to the Council of the American Physical Society
As physicists who are familiar with the science issues, and as current and past members of the American Physical Society, we the undersigned urge the Council to revise its current statement* on climate change as follows, so as to more accurately represent the current state of the science:
Greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, accompany human industrial and agricultural activity. While substantial concern has been expressed that emissions may cause significant climate change, measured or reconstructed temperature records indicate that 20th 21st century changes are neither exceptional nor persistent, and the historical and geological records show many periods warmer than today. In addition, there is an extensive scientific literature that examines beneficial effects of increased levels of carbon dioxide for both plants and animals.
Studies of a variety of natural processes, including ocean cycles and solar variability, indicate that they can account for variations in the Earth’s climate on the time scale of decades and centuries. Current climate models appear insufficiently reliable to properly account for natural and anthropogenic contributions to past climate change, much less project future climate.
The APS supports an objective scientific effort to understand the effects of all processes – natural and human –on the Earth’s climate and the biosphere’s response to climate change, and promotes technological options for meeting challenges of future climate changes, regardless of cause.
* The statement of the APS Council, adopted on November 18, 2007 is as follows:
“Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth’s climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes.
The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.
Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth’s climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.”
— APS News; January 2008 (Volume 17, Number 1)
SIGNATURES:
30 October 2009 162 Signatures
Harold M. Agnew President, General Atomics Corporation (1979 -1984) White House Science Councilor (1982 -1989) Director, Los Alamos National Laboratory (1970 -1979)
E.O. Lawrence Award 1966, Enrico Fermi Award 1978, Los Alamos Medal (with H.A. Bethe) 2001 Member National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS, AAAS
Sol Aisenberg President, International Technology Group Formerly Staff Member, MIT; Lecturer, Harvard Medical School; Visiting Research Professor, Boston University
Ralph B. Alexander Former Associate Professor of Physics Wayne State University President, R.B. Alexander & Associates Technology and market analysis in environmentally friendly materials and coatings Author, Global Warming False Alarm (Canterbury)
Moorad Alexanian Professor of Physics and Physical Oceanography University of North Carolina -Wilmington Member Mexican Academy of Sciences, American Scientific Affiliation
Louis J. Allamandola Director, Astrochemistry Laboratory NASA Ames Research Center Fellow APS, AAAS Member ACS, American Astronomical Society, International Astronomical Union
James L. Allen Engineer/Scientist International Space Station Program The Boeing Company (retired)
Arthur G. Anderson Vice President and former Director of Research IBM (retired) Member National Academy of Engineering, Fellow APS, Fellow IEEE
Eva Andrei Professor of Physics Rutgers University Fellow APS
Robert H. Austin Professor of Physics Princeton University Fellow APS, AAAS; APS Council: 1991-1994, 2007-2010 Member National Academy of Sciences, American Association of Arts and Sciences
David A. Bahr Associate Professor and Chair Department of Physics Bemidji State University
Franco Battaglia Professor of Chemical Physics and Environmental Chemistry University of Modena, Italy Life Member APS
David J. Benard Aerospace Scientist (retired) Co-Inventor of the Chemical Oxygen-Iodine Laser
Lev I. Berger President California Institute of Electronics and Materials Science Author, Semiconductor Materials; and Material and Device Characterization Measurements (CRC Press)
Stuart B. Berger Research Fellow and Divisional Time-to-Market Manager Xerox Corporation (retired)
Ami E. Berkowitz Emeritus Professor of Physics University of California at San Diego Fellow APS
Barry L. Berman Columbian Professor and Chair Physics Department The George Washington University Fellow APS
Edwin X. Berry Atmospheric Physicist, Climate Physics, LLC Certified Consulting Meteorologist #180 Member American Meteorological Society
Frances M. Berting Northern New Mexico Citizens Advisory Board and Committee (2000-present) Los Alamos County Council (2001-2008) Formerly Materials Scientist, Hanford (DOE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Westinghouse, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Vladislav A. Bevc Associate Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey (retired); Formerly Member of the Technical Staff, The Aerospace Corporation; Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution (Stanford University) Senior Member IEEE
Clifford Bruce Bigham Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd. (retired) Senior Member APS, Sustaining Member CAP
Arie Bodek George E. Pake Professor of Physics University of Rochester Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky Prize in Experimental Particle Physics (APS) 2004 Fellow APS
John W. Boring Professor Emeritus of Engineering Physics University of Virginia
Lowell S. Brown Emeritus Professor of Physics University of Washington Scientific Staff Member, Los Alamos National Laboratory Fellow APS, AAAS
Daniel M. Bubb Associate Professor and Chair Department of Physics Rutgers University -Camden
Timothy D. Calvin President, Bearfoot Corporation (retired) Fabricated rubber products for the DOD, shoe and automobile industries Member ACS
William J. Camp Emeritus Director: Computation, Information, and Mathematics Sandia National Laboratories Co-founder, IUPAP Commission C-20, The Commission on Computational Physics Nova Award for Invention of the Cray XT3 Computer Architecture (Lockheed Martin Corporation) Fellow APS, Member IEEE Computer Society
Mark L. Campbell Professor, Department of Chemistry United States Naval Academy Life Member APS
Gregory H. Canavan Senior Fellow and Scientific Advisor, Los Alamos National Laboratory Fellow APS
Jack G. Castle Senior Scientist Sandia National Laboratories (retired) Fellow and Life Member APS
Joseph F. Chiang Professor and Former Chairman Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry State University of New York, Oneonta Life Member APS
Roger W. Cohen Manager, Strategic Planning and Programs ExxonMobil Corporation (retired) Otto Schade Prize (Society for Information Display) 2006 Fellow APS
Barry D. Crane Project Director Institute for Defense Analyses Life Member APS
Steven R. Cranmer Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Karen Harvey Prize (AAS) 2006 Associate Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Member: American Astronomical Society, American Geophysical Union
J. F. Cuderman Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff Sandia National Laboratories (retired), Life Member APS
Jerry M. Cuttler President, Cuttler and Associates, Inc. Engineering, consulting, and licensing services for the nuclear power industry President, Canadian Nuclear Society 1995-1996 Fellow Canadian Nuclear Society, Member American Nuclear Society
James H. Degnan Principal Physicist Directed Energy Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory Fellow APS
Joseph G. Depp Founding President and CEO, Accuray Incorporated (retired) Stereotactic radiosurgery technology Founding President and CEO, PsiStar Incorporated Life Member APS
Riccardo DeSalvo Senior Scientist Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) California Institute of Technology Member ASME
James A. Deye Nuclear and Medical physicist Life Member APS
Eugene H. Dirk APS Division of Astrophysics, and Division of Computational Physics Topical Groups on Gravity, and Precision Measurement and Fundamental Constants
David H. Douglass Professor of Physics University of Rochester Fellow APS
Paul J. Drallos President and CEO, Plasma Dynamics Corporation (retired) Kinetic & fluid dynamic computer simulation services
Murray Dryer Emeritus Scientist Space Weather Prediction Center (retired), NWS National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Member American Astronomical Society, American Geophysical Union, AIAA
William T. Duffy Jr. Professor Emeritus of Physics Santa Clara University
David F. Edwards Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (retired) Formerly Los Alamos National Laboratory; Professor of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Colorado State University; Lincoln Laboratory, MIT
Albert G. Engelhardt President and CEO, Enfitek, Inc. Environmental control and security systems Senior Life Member IEEE
James E. Enstrom Research Professor Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center University of California at Los Angeles Life Member APS
Jens G. Feder Professor of Physics of Geological Processes University of Oslo Fellow APS
Douglas E. Fields Associate Professor Department of Physics and Astronomy University of New Mexico
Michael M. Fitelson Chief Scientist, Micro-Systems Enablers Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems
Harold K. Forsen Senior Vice President, Bechtel Corporation (retired) Governing Board, National Research Council (1994-2003) Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering (1995-2003) Arthur Holly Compton Award (ANS) 1972 Member National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS, ANS, American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Bruce L. Freeman Senior Experimental Physicist, Ktech Corporation Formerly Professor of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M Coauthor Explosively Driven Pulsed Power (Springer);
Explosive Pulsed Power (Imperial College) Member IEEE Plasma Sciences, Directed Energy Professional Society
Peter D. Friedman Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering University of Massachusetts Dartmouth Member American Geophysical Union, ASME, American Nuclear Society
Michael H. Frese Designer/Developer of Multiphysics
Simulation Codes and Applications Founder and Managing Member of NumerEx, LLC Member SIAM, IEEE Ian J. Fritz Research Physicist, Sandia National Laboratories (retired) R&D 100 Award 1991 Basic Energy Sciences Sustained Outstanding Achievement Award (DOE) 1993 Lockheed Martin NOVA Award 2001
Rodger L. Gamblin Managing Director Corona Color, LLC
John C. Garth Research Physicist Air Force Research Laboratory (retired) Member ANS, ASTM, American Association of Physicists in Medicine, Computational Medical Physics Working Group
G. Roger Gathers Senior Scientist, M. H. Chew and Associates Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1967-1993) Author, Selected Topics in Shock Wave Physics and
Equation of State Modeling (World Scientific Publishing)
Gary J. Gerardi Professor, Department of Chemistry and Physics William Paterson University
Ivar Giaever Institute Professor, School of Engineering and School of Science Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Nobel Prize in Physics 1973 Member National Academy of Science, National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS
George T. Gillies Research Professor, School of Engineering and Applied Science; and Research Professor, Department of Physics University of Virginia Clinical Professor, Department of Neurosurgery, Virginia Commonwealth University Fellow APS
Damon Giovanielli President, Sumner Associates scientific consultants Former Division Leader, Physics Division Los Alamos National Laboratory LANL staff member, program and line manager (1972-1993) Fellow AAAS
Albert Gold Associate Dean of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University (retired)
Ronald B. Goldfarb National Institute of Standards and Technology Life Member APS
Laurence I. Gould Professor of Physics University of Hartford Member Executive Board of the New England Section of the APS Chairman (2004), New England Section APS
Paul M. Grant EPRI Science Fellow (retired) IBM Research Staff Member Emeritus Senior Life Fellow APS
Howard D. Greyber University of Pennsylvania (retired) Formerly Princeton University, LLNL Theory Group, Northeastern University Member American Astronomical Society, Fellow Royal Astronomical Society
Ronald J. Gripshover Senior Research Physicist Naval Surface Weapons Center (retired)
Mike Gruntman Professor of Astronautics University of Southern California Author, Blazing the Trail. The Early History of Spacecraft and Rocketry (AIAA) Luigi G. Napolitano Book Award (International Academy of Astronautics) 2006 Member American Geophysical Union, Associate Fellow AIAA
George Hacken Senior Director, Safety-Critical Systems New York City Transit Authority Formerly Senior Member of the Technical Staff, GEC-Marconi Aerospace Chair, New York Chapter, IEEE Computer Society Member AMS, SIAM, ANS, AIAA, New York Academy of Sciences
David S. Hacker Senior Staff Research Engineer Amoco Corporation (retired) Associate Professor of Chemical Engineering, University of Illinois, Chicago Circle (1965-1981) Fellow AIChE
Sultan Hameed Professor of Atmospheric Science School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University, New York
William Happer Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics Princeton University Fellow APS, AAAS Member National Academy of Sciences
Howard C. Hayden Emeritus Professor of Physics University of Connecticut Editor, The Energy Advocate Author, A Primer on CO2 and Climate (Vales Lake)
Dennis B. Hayes Research Physicist Los Alamos, Sandia, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories President, Lockheed Martin Nevada Technologies, Inc. (retired) Fellow APS
Jack M. Hollander Professor Emeritus of Energy and Resources, University of California, Berkeley Vice-President Emeritus, The Ohio State University First Head, Energy and Environment Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Fellow APS, AAAS
David B. Holtkamp Scientific Staff Member, Physics Division Los Alamos National Laboratory
John C. Ingraham Scientific Staff Member, retired Los Alamos National Laboratory Member American Geophysical Union
Helen Jackson Research Physicist, Air Force Research Laboratory Wright Laboratory Member Materials Research Society, IEEE
H. Richard Johnson Co-Founder and Former CEO Watkins-Johnson Company (retired) Member National Academy of Engineering, Life Fellow IEEE
James R. Johnson 3M Company (retired) Member Carlton Society (3M Hall of Fame) Member National Academy of Engineering
O’Dean Judd LANL Fellow Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired) Technical Advisor and Consultant Fellow APS, IEEE, AAAS
Andrew Kaldor Distinguished Scientific Advisor Manager of Breakthrough Research ExxonMobil Corporation (retired) Fellow AAAS, Member ACS
Alexander E. Kaplan Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The Johns Hopkins University Max Born Award (Optical Society of America) 2005 Alexander von Humboldt Award (von Humboldt Foundation) 1996 Fellow OSA
Thomas J. Karr Director in the Advanced Concepts & Technology Division Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1984-1996) Editor, Applied Optics (1991-1994) Member OSA, AAAS; Senior Member IEEE
Jonathan Katz Professor of Physics Washington University
William E. Keller Leader, Low Temperature Physics Group 1971-1985 Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired) Fellow APS
John M. Kennel Autonetics Division, Boeing North American (retired) Formerly Electronics Division, Northrop Grumman Corporation Member AAAS, AIAA
Paul I. Kingsbury Manager, Physical Properties Research Department Corning Inc. (retired)
Robert S. Knox Professor of Physics Emeritus University of Rochester Member APS Council (1985-1988) Fellow APS
M. Kristiansen C.B.Thornton/P.W.Horn Professor Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Texas Tech University Fellow APS, IEEE
Moyses Kuchnir Applied Scientist Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (retired) Life Member APS, Member IEEE, AAAS
Joseph A. Kunc Professor, Physics and Astronomy University of Southern California Fellow APS
Robert E. LeLevier Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1951-1957) Physics Department, RAND Corp (1957-1971) R&D Associates (1971-1983) Eos Technologies, Inc. (1983-1993)
Paul L. La Celle Professor, Department of Biomedical Engineering Former Chair, Department of Biophysics University of Rochester Alexander von Humboldt Senior Fellow, Max Planck Institute for Biophysics, Frankfort
Robert E. Levine Industrial and Defense Physics and Engineering (retired) Member ACM, IEEE
Harold W. Lewis Professor of Physics Emeritus University of California at Santa Barbara Chairman, Defense Science Board Panel on Nuclear Winter Chairman, APS Reactor Safety Study Fellow APS, AAAS
John D. Lindl James Clerk Maxwell Prize for Plasma Physics (APS) 2007 Fellow APS, AAAS
Xavier Llobet Research Associate Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
Gabriel G. Lombardi Senior Scientist, Phase Coherence, Inc. National Research Council Associate (NIST, 1980-82) Life Member APS, Member OSA
Michael D. Lubin Colonel, United States Air Force (retired)
Alfred U. MacRae President, MacRae Technologies Member National Academy of Engineering, Fellow APS, IEEE
Phillip W. Mange Associate Superintendent, Space Science Division Scientific Consultant to the Director of Research, Naval Research Laboratory (retired)
John E. Mansfield Vice Chairman Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board
Kristanka Marinova Department of Chemical Engineering Faculty of Chemistry Sofia University
Joseph Maserjian Senior Research Scientist, California Institute of Technology Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired)
John H. McAdoo Aerospace Physicist Member IEEE, AAAS
Thomas A. McClelland Vice President, Commercial Products Frequency Electronics, Inc.
Harold Mirels Principal Scientist, The Aerospace Corporation (retired) Fellow APS, AIAA Member National Academy of Engineering
Jim Mitroy Lecturer in Physics, School of Engineering and Information Technology Charles Darwin University, Australia
Michael Monce Professor of Physics, Astronomy, and Geophysics Connecticut College Member AAPT, American Geophysical Union
Nasif Nahle Scientific Research Director Biology Cabinet, Mexico Member AAAS, New York Academy of Sciences
Rodney W. Nichols President and CEO, New York Academy of Sciences (1992-2001) Vice President and Executive Vice President, The Rockefeller University (1970-1990) Secretary of Defense Medal for Distinguished Meritorious Civilian Service (1970) Fellow AAAS, New York Academy of Sciences
Gordon C. Oehler Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies Working Group Chairman, Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States. Corporate Vice President for Corporate Development, SAIC (1998-2004) National Intelligence Officer for Science, Technology and Proliferation (1989-1992)
William P. Oliver Professor of Physics Tufts University Life Member APS
Frank R. Paolini Adjunct Professor of Physics University of Connecticut at Stamford (retired) Senior Member APS, Member IEEE
Daniel N. Payton III Senior Scientist, SAIC (1992-present) Eos Technologies (1984-1992) Technical Director of Nuclear Technology Air Force Weapons Laboratory (1976-1984)
Erik M. Pell Xerox Corporation (retired) Author: From Dreams to Riches – The Story of Xerography (Carlson) Edward Goodrich Acheson Medal (Electrochemical Society) 1986 President, Electrochemical Society (1980-1981) Fellow APS, Honorary Member ECS, Senior Member IEEE
Thomas E. Phipps, Jr. Physicist (retired) Operations Evaluation Group, MIT US Naval Ordnance Laboratory Senior Member APS
Donald Rapp Chief Technologist, Mechanical and Chemical Systems, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired) Professor of Physics and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas (1973-1979) Author, “Assessing Climate Change” and “Ice Ages and Interglacials” (Springer-Verlag) Fellow APS
Ned S. Rasor Consulting Physicist Formerly President and CEO, Rasor Associates, Inc. Member IEEE, AIAA
Richard T. Rauch NASA Stennis Space Center Life Member APS, Associate Fellow AIAA
John E. Rhoads Professor of Physics Midwestern State University (retired) Member SPE
Harry I. Ringermacher Sr. Research Physicist General Electric Global Research Center AIP “History of Physics in Industry” Participant at GE Sir William Herschel Medal (American Academy of Thermology) Copper Black Award (American Mensa) 2003 and 2007
Stanley Robertson Emeritus Professor of Physics Southwestern Oklahoma State University
Berol Robinson Principal Scientific Officer UNESCO (retired) Member AAPT, AAAS, Association des Écologistes Pour le Nucléaire
Daniel J. Rogers Staff Scientist Applied Information Sciences Department Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Member OSA
Robert C. Rohr Reactor Physicist Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory (retired) Former Adjunct Professor of Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Kelly R. Roos Professor of Physics Bradley University
Isaac C. Sanchez William J. Murray, Jr. Chair in Engineering and Associate Chair Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Texas at Austin
U.S. Department of Commerce Medals 1980, 1983 Edward U. Condon Award (NIST) 1983; SPE International Research Award 1996 Member National Academy of Engineering, Fellow APS
Raymond E. Sarwinski President, Cryogenic Designs, Inc. Life Member APS
Nicola Scafetta Research Scientist, Physics Department, Duke University Member American Geophysical Union
Mark D. Semon Professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy Bates College Member American Academy of Forensic Scientists, American College of Forensic Examiners
Thomas P. Sheahen President/ CEO, Western Technology, Inc. (energy sciences consulting) Member AAAS; APS Congressional Science Fellowship (1977-78) Author, Introduction to High Temperature Superconductivity (Springer)
Arnold J. Sierk Technical Staff Member Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Fellow APS
Joseph Silverman Professor Emeritus of Nuclear Engineering, Department of Materials Science and Engineering University of Maryland Fellow APS, ANS
S. Fred Singer Professor of Environmental Sciences Emeritus University of Virginia First Director of the National Weather Satellite Service Fellow APS, AAAS, American Geophysical Union
Frans W. Sluijter Professor, Department of Applied Physics Eindhoven University of Technology Former Chair, Plasma Physics Division, European Physics Society Former Vice President, International Union of Pure and Applied Physics Member Dutch Physical Society, Institute of Physics UK
John R. Smith Project Physicist, Experimental High Energy Physics Department of Physics University of California, Davis Life Member APS
Hermann Statz Raytheon Corporation (retired) Microwave Pioneer Award (IEEE) 2004 Fellow APS
Nick Steph Chair, Department of Physics Franklin College Member AAPT, ACS
Peter Stilbs Professor of Physical Chemistry Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden Life Member APS
Norman D. Stockwell Senior Project Engineer, TRW (retired) Former Member of the Technical Staff, The Aerospace Corporation Life Member APS, Member AAAS
Thomas F. Stratton Fellow, Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired) Fellow APS
William R. Stratton Scientific Staff Member Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired) Member AEC Advisory Committee on Reactor Safety Chair ANS Nuclear Reactor Accident Study Fellow ANS
Szymon Suckewer Professor of School of Engineering & Applied Sciences Director of Plasma Science & Technology Program Princeton University Fellow APS, OSA
Ronald M. Sundelin Associate Director, DOE Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (retired) Commonwealth Professor Emeritus of Physics, Virginia Tech Fellow APS
Andrei Szilagyi Formerly Chief Scientist, Aura Systems, Inc. Chief Technologist, Radiant Technology Corporation Chief Scientist, NanoMuscle Inc. Member MRS, Electrochemical Society, TMS – The Minerals, Metals, and Materials Society
Willard L. Talbert Scientific Consultant (1993-present) Scientific Staff Member, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1976-1993 (retired) Professor of Physics, Iowa State University (1961-1976) Fellow APS
Lu Ting Professor Emeritus of Mathematics Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University Lead Author, Vortex Dominated Flows (Applied Mathematical Sciences, Springer) Member SIAM, AIAA, AAM
Frank J. Tipler Professor of Mathematical Physics Tulane University Coauthor, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (Oxford University Press)
Salvatore Torquato Professor of Chemistry and the Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, Materials Institute and Applied & Computational Mathematics Princeton University 2009 APS David Alder Lectureship Award in the Field of Material Physics Fellow APS
Rusty S. Towell Professor of Physics Abilene Christian University Member IEEE
Edward S. Troy Principal Engineer Aerospace Consulting Wireless, RF, microwave, analog/DSP, and GPS circuits and systems Member IEEE
William B. Walters Professor of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland John Simon Guggenheim Fellow (1986) ACS Award in Nuclear Chemistry (2001) Alexander von Humboldt Senior Fellow, University of Mainz (2002) Life Member APS, Member ACS
Samuel A. Werner Curators’ Professor Emeritus The University of Missouri Guest Researcher, NIST Fellow APS, AAAS
Bruce J. West Adjunct Professor of Physics Duke University Fellow APS
Peter J. Wojtowicz Group Head, Senior Member Technical Staff (retired) RCA Labs, GE, Sarnoff Corporation Fellow APS
Ya-Hong Xie Professor of Materials Science and Engineering University of California at Los Angeles Senior Member IEEE, Member Materials Research Society
M. John Yoder Principal Physicist The MITRE Corporation Life Member APS
Claude Zeller Principal Fellow Pitney Bowles Inc. Member IEEE
Martin V. Zombeck Physicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (retired) Author, Handbook of Space Astronomy and Astrophysics (Cambridge University Press) Coauthor, High Resolution X-Ray Spectroscopy of Cosmic Plasmas (Cambridge University Press)
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Richard:
http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/7613/alcooling.jpg
PS Smokey’s arguments above, in the most part, apply equally to the economic destruction alarmists.
Stefan, what is this “massive climate change” of which you speak?
Has the rebellion begun? I certainly hope so! And not before time! What did your country once say to mine; “no taxation without representation”.
Hmmm … sort of the way ‘unions’ work it with their dues-paying (whether they are union members or not in some cases) membership too; can I ask “How does it feel?”
.
.
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“Addressing CO2 to the benefit of our energy future is doing the right thing for the wrong reason, but is much better than doing nothing.” Murray
Wrong. As it becomes economically feasible to switch from fossil fuels that is when it should be done. Where did you learn economics?
“…their funding will be among the first to suffer.” NickB
And rightly so. What good are scientists if they won’t speak the truth!
So are the Statisticians and Mathematicians going to stick their heads above the parapet?:
http://www.amstat.org/
http://www.siam.org/
Back2Bat – it has been economically feasible for at least a decade, even based on current practises that externalize much of the cost of fossil fuels. If the fuels had to support their real costs, alternatives would blow them away. Try factoring in the USA military cost of keeping oil flowing from the middle-east and see what a gallon of gasoline would cost, or make the West Virginia coal miners pay for the societal and environmental costs of mountain top removal. Many, many efficiencies can be implemented for about 20% to 60% of the cost of the fossil fuel electricity they would avoid. They don’t get addressed for a large number of societal and industrial reasons, but mainly because energy is still a very small part of GDP and is only on the radar screen when something happens like gasoline at $4.00/gal. As with the economic modellers, you probably have no idea of the realities you allude to. Murray
Does anyone actually analyse the original stance when they read it?
On the one hand they say:
“The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. ”
But then they conclude with:
“Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult yadda yadda yadda… ”
Now hang on… call me pedantic, but aren’t those statements virtually contradictions per se?
The evidence is incintrovertible, but apparently so muddied that they can’t make an accurate prediction. I am sorry, but in simple engineering-land where I was brought up, if evidence is clear cut then it is just a matter of figuring out the right model/theory/relationship/equation/thingamajig to fit to your “incintrovertible” evidence to and then apply it to get the right answers.
Maybe I am a tad backwerds bein’ a dumgineer an’ all…
Murray says:
Actually, it is much worse than you have even portrayed it here. For one thing, I would say that there is in fact much more reason to believe climate models, based on physical principles, than to believe economics models.
However, more importantly, it is not as if most economists who have done modeling are claiming that global warming mitigation efforts will “destroy our economy”. In fact, most…at least that have made it to the peer-reviewed literature…are claiming quite the opposite. The claims about destroying the economy are, for the most part, not based on any modeling whatsoever; they are simply based on fear-mongering with no intellectual support of any kind.
Back2Bat says:
Well, perhaps he learned it from a place that goes beyond the ideal market model and actually teaches one the simple concept of “externalities” ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality ) or “tragedy of the commons”, which I imagine would be pretty much all universities these days. May I ask where you learned economics?
Smokey says:
If all you folks think that these organizations like the APS, ACS, AGU, AAAS, NAS, etc., etc. have all been hijacked by a small minority, then it ought to be a cinch to launch revolts in these organizations that would actually lead to the election of people to the Boards and Councils of these societies that would turn the direction around. It is a wonder that this hasn’t happened…unless one posits that in fact a significant majority of the membership actually agrees with the Boards and Councils of these organizations.
Murray – not sure what you meant by this:
“They don’t get addressed for a large number of societal and industrial reasons, but mainly because energy is still a very small part of GDP and is only on the radar screen when something happens like gasoline at $4.00/gal.”
but a US gallon of petrol has an energetic content of about 35kWh. This average fit guy working might do 200W output continuous? Say a nine hour day (keeps the numbers easy!)? so 1800Wh? = 1.8kWh? So 1 gallon gasoline is 20 days of work? 1 months labour for $4? Ok lets cut it down to allow for conversion losses – 25% net? Call it a working week? So I’d say it’s a pretty large contributor to GDP. Good reason to find alternatives IMO. (Please check the numbers – OTTOMH)
“May I ask where you learned economics?” Joel Shore
College and a life time of thinking.
Pray tell Joel, what are the externalities of burning carbon? CO2? Where is the tragedy? It will take energy to move to other energy forms. The Gulf Of Mexico alone has a 2000 year supply of energy for the US in the form of Methyl-hydrate.
Solar looks like it will work but windmills look like pure foolishness.
I think the chief “externality” is some folks don’t like progress. But that is a flaw of the underlying banking and money model, not the free market which we haven’t had since 1913.
inre: Global Warming as a religious issue (RdHaan’s link):
‘Representatives from Baha’ism, Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism, Islam, Judaism, Shintoism, Sikhism and Taoism will unveil programmes that “could motivate the largest civil society movement the world has ever seen,” said UN Assistant Secretary General Olav Kjorven.
UN chief Ban Ki-moon will launch the event under the banner “Faith Commitments for a Living Planet.”
…
Global warming and its impacts cannot be looked at just as a material problem. The root causes are spiritual,” agreed Stuart Scott, whose Interfaith Declaration on Climate Change — calling for the “stewardship and reverence for creation” — has been endorsed by dozens of major religious organisations.
…
“Religions cross boundaries and don’t have to deal with issues of finance, of sovereignty, of intellectual property on technology” — all issues bedeviling UN climate talks, said Jessica Haller, director of the Jewish Climate Campaign.
American environmentalist Bill McKibben, the founder of grassroots climate group 350.org, has identified two wellsprings for the worldwide tsunami of support for his Web-based cause: educated youth and faith-based groups.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20091102/tsc-religion-gets-behind-fight-against-c-c2ff8aa.html
Oh boy, here we go.
“Try factoring in the USA military cost of keeping oil flowing from the middle-east “ Murray
Try considering that the Middle East has to sell its oil to eat. The US military empire is a complete waste of money and lives.
“”” Murray (17:10:09) :
Back2Bat – it has been economically feasible for at least a decade, even based on current practises that externalize much of the cost of fossil fuels. If the fuels had to support their real costs, alternatives would blow them away. Try factoring in the USA military cost of keeping oil flowing from the middle-east and see what a gallon of gasoline would cost, or make the West Virginia coal miners pay for the societal and environmental costs of mountain top removal. Many, many efficiencies can be implemented for about 20% to 60% of the cost of the fossil fuel electricity they would avoid. They don’t get addressed for a large number of societal and industrial reasons, but mainly because energy is still a very small part of GDP and is only on the radar screen when something happens like gasoline at $4.00/gal. As with the economic modellers, you probably have no idea of the realities you allude to. Murray “””
Well actually Murray; that stuff is already factored in.; and as for factoring in the cost of the military; that is the first thing that the Congress is authorised to lay and collect taxes to pay for; well unless you include paying the debts of the USA. Come to think of it, it is about the only thing Congress is authorised to colelct taxes for (besides paying the debts) Well and they ahve to provide for the general welfar of “The United States”, that beurocracy that lives in Washington DC.
One thing is for certain; the present energy system got to where it is by hoisting itself by its own bootstraps. You see there wasn’t ANY alternative sources to tax to pay for what we have now.
Certainly the free clean green renewable energy we started with wasn’t able to grow the human population to its present size; and it isn’t likely to sustain it; the renewal rate is just too damn slow, and it is too diffuse to collect.
Those fellows in the latest Scientific American who want to replace ALL energy for ALL purposes with clean green free renewables, with wind solar water (actually all of those are solar); say their grandiose scheme only requires the use of 1% of the earth’s land area. That is about how much of the present earth land are that we use today for everything for everybody on earth. Good luck on that; so how many years at the prevailing energy availability rates did it take us to create all of that infra-structure we now have ?
Well they propose to do it by 2030. Hey the earth doesn’t have enough resources available besides what is in use now; to actually do all that work in 21 years of continuous round the clock work by everyone available (and not doing something else).
“”” But as Einstein replied to the one hundred scientists who signed a letter disputing relativity, ”To defeat relativity one did not need the word of 100 scientists, just one fact.” All it takes is one fact to deconstruct the CO2=AGW conjecture. The number of scientists doesn’t matter. “””
Can you point us to a copy of that letter Joel; I’m sure people would like to see such a historic document; as well as learn the names of those 100 scientists; who bet against Einstein’s relativity.
Was that the special theory or the general theory that they wrote against ?
Joel Shore “If all you folks think that these organizations like the APS, ACS, AGU, AAAS, NAS, etc., etc. have all been hijacked by a small minority, then it ought to be a cinch to launch revolts in these organizations that would actually lead to the election of people to the Boards and Councils of these societies that would turn the direction around.”
The dark, slimy, suction-cup tentacles of the big, bloated, anti-scientific AGW monster, are far-reaching, Joel.
The behemoth is fed by power-hungry “Inquisitionesqe” narcissistic henchmen of the likes of Gore and his money-hungry greasy fingers and paranoid scientists-turned activists like Hansen.
Remember that mass delusions have occurred down through history, and no one knows why even the smartest of our species are duped…but it has happened many a time in the past…
…and it is happening before our eyes today.
Joel Shore: “It is a wonder that this [revolt] hasn’t happened…unless one posits that in fact a significant majority of the membership actually agrees with the Boards and Councils of these organizations.”
I’ll bet if you polled the “significant majority” and they would tell you privately something different than what they would say publicly…
…because they….have to keep bread on the table for the family.
The Skeptic-AGW scientific conference which is held in March every year (can’t think of the name of it)…was wrongly (and disrespectfully) criticized of about having a bunch of “old guys.”
I remember hearing that criticism and got a good laugh.
A couple of reasons why the “old guys” are the ones making a lot of noise:
1) They are tenured or retired so they needn’t fear for their job as much.
2) They have been on this planet twice or three times as long as the rest of us and are probably wiser….and see RIGHT THROUGH the monumental b***s*** of the AGW Church.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Murray (16:21:11):
“There is no more reason to believe that global warming mitigation efforts will ‘destroy our economy’, than to believe in the potential for catastrophic AGW.”
You’re no doubt speaking of CO2 mitigation, by which you probably mean “carbon” sequestration. And it’s true that such a completely misguided and wasted effort probably wouldn’t destroy the economy.
It would have the same effect, and be just as productive, to hire several million people to dig 10’X10’X10′ holes with picks and shovels in empty fields, and then move the holes every three weeks. That would at least promote a healthier population.
Reducing CO2, on the other hand, would be harmful. Carbon dioxide is entirely beneficial. It is as necessary to life on Earth as H2O. More of the trace gas CO2 is better, because the atmosphere is currently starved of it. Increased CO2 would certainly improve agricultural yields. And CO2 is completely harmless in the trace gas amounts current and projected.
The canard that the tiny trace gas CO2 will cause runaway global warming and climate catastrophe has been repeatedly discredited to the point that the alarmist crowd hesitates to make the claim any more.
There is no empirical evidence supporting that wild-eyed runaway global warming conjecture. And since CO2 will not cause runaway global warming, then it’s time to stop shoveling more money at that non-problem. The 160 scientists who signed the letter don’t swallow the CO2 alarmism; why should we?
All the ‘evidence’ that CO2 will cause runaway global warming comes from computer climate models. But models are not evidence. Data — raw data — is evidence. And the empirical evidence does not support the CO2=AGW runaway global warming conjecture.
Joel Shore can not understand how professional organizations can be easily co-opted to promote repeatedly falsified ideas like runaway global warming.
But many others may be interested in Prof Richard Lindzen’s damning report on the political shenanigans within organizations like the APS. Keep in mind that Prof Lindzen is speaking from personal, first hand experience: click
It should also be kept in mind that 160 esteemed scientists [in addition to the 31,000+ scientists who have signed the OISM Petition] have taken the extraordinary step of speaking out regarding the problem that Shore desperately attempts to denigrate for his own agenda. But those scientists didn’t sign their names on a whim. They signed because they see a major credibility problem brewing in the science community.
The current small clique of hucksters who have hijacked the climate peer review process are a little different from the peer review types who were bamboozled by the Sokal paper [which was refereed, vetted, approved and published in a peer reviewed journal], because the current climate clique is in it for their personal rent-seeking advantage, with their snouts buried deep in the public trough.
George E. Smith (18:43:15),
I provided that quote, not Joel. If you search the specific quote [in quotation marks], you’ll get plenty of hits. Here’s the first one, from the Encyclopedia Britannica: click. Here’s another, with the exact quote [under “Coming to America”]: click
“As with the economic modellers, you probably have no idea of the realities you allude to. ” Murray
I realize that the world is in the grip of insane Keynesian economic theory. Here is a rule of thumb for you:
1. Government is force.
2. Good ideas do not have to be forced on others.
3. Bad ideas should not be forced on others
4. Liberty is necessary for the difference between good ideas and bad ideas to be revealed.
You could pay a $100,000 for an econ education and never learn the above.
ur welcome.
Good to see a few scientists sticking to principles objecting to political science. Scientists are going to start to wake up and realize the politicians will “blame” science for any outcome. If AGW does not work out as Al says, Al will simply claim he meant well but was mislead by bad scientists. You can not blame a politician, because “his intent was pure”. “How was he to know that scientists were lying to him”? “How was he to know the scientists were exaggerating their claims”? Scientists need to stick to scientific principles and stop playing politics.
George E. Smith says:
Not by a long shot. According to “Global Physical Climatology” by Dennis Hartmann (1994, p. 17, http://books.google.com/books?id=aKPxctcJNNUC&printsec=frontcover&dq=hartmann+global+physical+climatology#v=onepage&q=&f=false ), “arable mixed farming and human areas” make up 10-13% of total land area and grazing land makes up another 20-25%. And, I imagine some part of that which is forests and woodlands (23%-33%) is managed forests.
Smokey says:
Ah yes, and Lindzen can rely on the gullible to dutifully believe that basically every single scientific organization on the planet has been taken over by some small cadre of scientists that don’t represent their members!
savethesharks says:
(1) The majority of professors probably get tenure before they are 40. (It is typically about 6 years after they start in a tenure-track position.) And, how is it exactly that some minority of scientists are tyrannically demanding that their fellow scientists swear allegiance to “the AGW Church” that you speak of? You guys have this weird persecution complex, although I suppose it isn’t much different than these folks have: http://www.expelledthemovie.com/
(2) Some older people use that time to acquire further wisdom. Others don’t keep up with the times or current scientific understanding and tend to ossify in their beliefs.