But they do say that “first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080”. By then there will be nobody that remembers this forecast.
Yet on the same day, bumbling Arctic explorer Pen Hadow says in a UK Telegraph interview:
“To all intents and purposes the Arctic will be ice free in a decade. I do find the implications of this happening in my lifetime quite shocking.“.
Gosh, who to believe? Somebody that fakes biotelemetry data or somebody that won’t hand over climate data for replication studies?
From a Met Office press release on October 15th
The extent of Arctic sea ice has been decreasing since the late 1970s. In 2007 it decreased dramatically in a single year, reaching an all-time low. At the time it was widely reported that this was caused by man-made climate change and that the rate of decline of summer sea ice was increasing.
Modelling of Arctic sea ice by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events, and that the long-term trend of reduction is robust — with the first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080. It is unlikely that the Arctic will experience ice-free summers by 2020.
Analysis of the 2007 summer sea-ice minimum has subsequently shown that this was due, in part, to unusual weather patterns. Arctic weather systems are highly variable year-on-year and the prevailing winds can enhance, or oppose, the southward flow of ice into the Atlantic. Consequently, the sea ice has not declined every year, but has shown considerable variability — both in extent and thickness.
The high variability has made it difficult to attribute the observed trend to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, although there is now enough data to detect a human signal in the 30-year trend. The trend and observed variability, including the minimum extent observed in 2007, is consistent with climate modelling from the Met Office.
About half of the climate models involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years. The observed temporary recovery from the 2007 minimum in 2008 and 2009 indicates that the Arctic ice has not yet reached a tipping point, if such exists. We expect Arctic ice to continue to decline in line with increasing global temperatures. If the rate of global temperature rise increases then so will the rate of Arctic sea-ice decline.
h/t to WUWT reader Patrick Davis
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Tuesday, 12 December 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6171053.stm
Pen Hadow 2009
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8307272.stm
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm
These are the stories we hear from the media. Those with a hint of balance are few and far between.
Once again the ‘prediction’ is around 50 years… Close enough to be frightening, but far enough away to be hard to prove or remember by anyone who is around now….these predictions are always just out of reach and ‘steps’ must always be taken now to prevent any further warming … I’ve just been reading my tea leaves and I am expecting a BIG bill from Copenhagen…
Row bust,
Scantily clad models in a boat with oars.
If they keep revising their models to match observation, they will always be behind the 8 ball, and no more accurate than a linear extrapolation.
When will we see a model where observation matches their projection???
They are too quick to re-fudge their models everytime nature fails to do as told!
In the year 2060 chances are, if H.Abdusamatov is right, there will be a new Catlin 2nd. expedition, to explore ice from uninhabited and then frozen London city to the north pole..
Re: P Wilson:
That ought to be re-written as: ” Observations based
on non Met Office satellite data shows that ice MAY
invariably recover from SOME extreme events….”
I am American, and I really enjoy this blog. My
country is in for a bad time, maybe we can start cutting
our losses by 2010, (around the time the ice melts).
Time to fasten my seat belt.
Just got back from Piers Corbyn’s conference in London. Two BBC journos showed up; Richard Black and Roger Harrabin. Black promised to report Corbyn’s prediction of a serious weather event in the North Sea between 17 and 19 November.
Oh, and get some warm clothes. According to Corbyn we’re in for a cold and snowy winter.
I’ll have some videos from the event on Climate Realists web site soon !
The extent of Arctic sea ice has been decreasing since the late 1970s. In 2007 it decreased dramatically in a single year, reaching an all-time low.
The arctic ice has been measured in this way since 1979. This is what they mean by “all time”. At the Met Office time began in 1979.
Modelling of Arctic sea ice by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events…
Wrong. Modelling shows … models. Measurements and observations show things – modelling shows nothing.
…and that the long-term trend of reduction is robust.
Note to readers: in climanetics the word “robust” has a special meaning – it applies retrospectively to past observations as in “last years football scores were robust”.
Analysis of the 2007 summer sea-ice minimum has subsequently shown that this was due, in part, to unusual weather patterns
This is blasphemy. Are they really saying that random natural events can be of similar size to … mankind ?
The high variability has made it difficult to attribute the observed trend to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, although there is now enough data to detect a human signal in the 30-year trend.
So – it’s all over the place – and you cannot pin it on greenhouse gases – but there is a human signal. What is a human signal ? A voice ? Morse code ? Some writing ? These people are supposed to be scientists and they are talking about “human signals”. What are they on about – jungle drums at the North Pole ?
The trend and observed variability, including the minimum extent observed in 2007, is consistent with climate modelling from the Met Office.
Well it’s just a pity that they did not publish this trend and this variability beforehand – like normal predictions.
It gets better:
About half of the climate models involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years.
So their own model – or models – show the ice recovering. But about half the models show the opposite. Are they wrong ?
The observed temporary recovery from the 2007 minimum in 2008 and 2009 indicates that the Arctic ice has not yet reached a tipping point, if such exists.
They have observed a recovery. Not a temporary recovery. The results for 2010 are not in – yet. Not until …next year. Too early to say if it’s temporary or not. This is junk.
They really saved the best until last – nobody knows if there is a tipping point. Are they hedging ?
This is cargo-cult stuff. It’s not science.
“They are too quick to re-fudge their models everytime nature fails to do as told!” stumpy
Hard science (physics, chemistry, astronomy, etc): to encourage man.
not so hard science (biology, climatology, etc): to humble man
soft science(psychology, sociology, etc): to frustrate man
Jack Hughes (15:37:10) :
I almost feel sorry for the opposition. It looks like the adults are starting to wake up.
“We expect Arctic ice to continue to decline in line with increasing global temperatures. If the rate of global temperature rise increases then so will the rate of Arctic sea-ice decline.”
Yeah and if your aunty had balls she would be your uncle !
NASA, another alarmist about a melting North Pole presents it’s own “peddle back”
strategy:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=40932&src=eorss-iotd
Sandy (05:12:02) “When will these morons realize that low arctic ice is dumping enormous amounts of heat out to space.”
Well-said.
Re: Bob Tisdale (07:12:17)
I also found Anthony’s question very amusing —– sure put things into perspective.
Jack Hughes
Regarding models, I agree entirely. I had to correct my (geology/geochemistry) PhD thesis from saying ‘models show that…’ to ‘has been modelled as…’ after one of our Professors picked up this very issue – models cannot prove or show anything, because they are built on a series of assumptions of various degrees of correctness, and then generally modified to best fit with any available observational information.
Boudu (15:09:26) :
…a serious weather event in the North Sea between 17 and 19 November.
Sounds like a horoscope. What kind of weather event? The North Sea is a large body of water and storms aren’t exactly rare in November. Isn’t this just the Barnum effect?
Maybe he’s right about the upcoming winter, but it’s pretty mild here at the moment (and there’s no sign of it getting colder soon). Perversely, I hope he’s right, because I like cold winters (though not too cold, thank you).
Did he actually reveal what his method was, or was it just some armwaving about solar activity and the moon?
To all intents and purposes the Arctic will be ice free in a decade.
True — if you happen to be making the transit by submarine.
Ron de Haan (17:12:02) :
From your link…
I see what they’re doing but even here they’re wrong. The maximum insolation is the SOUTH pole around the Winter solstice unless I’ve got it the wrong way round. (I was sure the Earth was closest to the Sun during NH Winter.)
DaveE.
I just have to ask, exactly what has happened in the past few months that has caused such a massive change in the output of the models?
If there was some massive, unprecedented ice buildup in the Arctic then sure, I could understand. But there has been nothing out of the ordinary, and yet we are supposed to believe that suddenly the models show icy summers in the arctic for the next several decades.
Logically, it would seem that something other than the input of raw data is affecting the output. In which case, projections (both current and previous) are suspect.
“exactly what has happened in the past few months that has caused such a massive change in the output of the models?”
Probably nothing Chris.
Just imagine the massive piles of data coming from multiple runs of these models. These will be open to ex postfacto interpretation and selection, so there will always be somebody who can claim that something is “consistent” with what they had modelled.
Like the person who comes home from a day at the horse racing brags about how well they did on the 3:15.
Or the person who said that share prices would go down three years ago .. and just look what happened!
Or the quatrains of Nostradamus – we kinda get their full meaning after the event, as they are twisted to fit known past events.
Slightly off topic, has anyone got any ideas as to the effect on arctic ice next summer of the past month or so being significantly above average in temperature and, hence seeing a delayed start to the steepest phase of the annual freeze-up?
My gut feel would be, all things being equal, that sea ice minimum next September would be no higher than 2009 and possibly slightly lower?
Any evidence from previous freezing seasons to shed light on that??
Ice, ice everywhere