UK Met Office backpedals on Arctic Ice – "…unlikely that the Arctic will experience ice-free summers by 2020."

But they do say that “first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080”. By then there will be nobody that remembers this forecast.

Yet on the same day, bumbling Arctic explorer Pen Hadow says in a UK Telegraph interview:

To all intents and purposes the Arctic will be ice free in a decade. I do find the implications of this happening in my lifetime quite shocking.“.

Gosh, who to believe? Somebody that fakes biotelemetry data or somebody that won’t hand over climate data for replication studies?

From a Met Office press release on October 15th

Arctic sea-ice

The extent of Arctic sea ice has been decreasing since the late 1970s. In 2007 it decreased dramatically in a single year, reaching an all-time low. At the time it was widely reported that this was caused by man-made climate change and that the rate of decline of summer sea ice was increasing.

Modelling of Arctic sea ice by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events, and that the long-term trend of reduction is robust — with the first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080. It is unlikely that the Arctic will experience ice-free summers by 2020.

Analysis of the 2007 summer sea-ice minimum has subsequently shown that this was due, in part, to unusual weather patterns. Arctic weather systems are highly variable year-on-year and the prevailing winds can enhance, or oppose, the southward flow of ice into the Atlantic. Consequently, the sea ice has not declined every year, but has shown considerable variability — both in extent and thickness.

The high variability has made it difficult to attribute the observed trend to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, although there is now enough data to detect a human signal in the 30-year trend. The trend and observed variability, including the minimum extent observed in 2007, is consistent with climate modelling from the Met Office.

About half of the climate models involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years. The observed temporary recovery from the 2007 minimum in 2008 and 2009 indicates that the Arctic ice has not yet reached a tipping point, if such exists. We expect Arctic ice to continue to decline in line with increasing global temperatures. If the rate of global temperature rise increases then so will the rate of Arctic sea-ice decline.

h/t to WUWT reader Patrick Davis

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Nick Yates

Let’s see if the MSM reports this ‘correction’.

As they say the first casualty in war is the truth. Seems like the alarmists have gotten to the point where they are totally unbelievable.

Don B

Fascinating. In Klyashtorin and Lyubushin’s book, they show how Arctic ice coverage mirrors global temperature, with an 8 year lag, and predict 30 years of global cooling. So, if 2007 was the nadir of Arctic ice, followed by 30 years of “robust” recovery of ice, that would put the start of the next melting in about 2037. Thirty years of melting after that could mean an ice free Arctic in the 2060-2080 window. Has the Met started reading Russian?
http://alexeylyubushin.narod.ru/Climate_Changes_and_Fish_Productivity.pdf?

Tom in Florida

Well, it’s a start.

“But they do say that “first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080″. By then there will be nobody that remembers this forecast.”
Why are these people NEVER held accountable for their failure to forcast anything????

dorlomin

It really breaks my heart to see those poley bears floating away on their tiny little ice-floes, and no-one cares about them at all.
The deniers screech that “their population is increasing!”
OK, so logic says that there will be MORE poley bears floating around like the flotsam and jetsam of capitalist society.
Shame.

Human signal in the 30-year trend – which exactly?
AFAIK, in 2007/8/9 the NW passage got opened for the first time since – surprise, surprise – 1941/44.
Not to forget: http://i680.photobucket.com/albums/vv161/Radiant_2009/popularmechanics1957-2.jpg

Peter Plail

They seem to be covering their backsides with every paragraph, yet despite attributing the 2007 to prevailing winds (somewhat belatedly) they still claim it is consistent with the model that originally told them it was global warming wot dun it!
These are supposed to be leading climate scientists yet they don’t seem to apply any logical analysis to what they say. I think they are slowly reaching a tipping point when they fess up and admit it is all part of natural cycles and that man’s CO2 contribution will not cause runaway anything.

H.R.

“But they do say that “first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080″. By then there will be nobody that remembers this forecast.”
Kinda’ reminds me of a sign some bars have hanging up as a joke:
“Free Beer Tomorrow.”
In effect, all we ever see is a sign that says “The Ice Will Be Gone Tomorrow.”

vg

Dorlomin: DMI is not posting because since October 1 data not reliable. Upon re-adjustment will look more like 2005 probably…same applies to Jaxa, Norsex etc. CT just goes ahead they dont care….as long as it goes down

rbateman

The bottom line is that if your 1 year or 5 year forecast is flaky, why should your 50 year forecast be any better?

Henry chance

Free ice next year
Science is in
Surely we will see a blizzard soon

John Laidlaw

Sadly, I’m getting a “connection reset” error when trying to access the Met Office page linked to from above. I did search Google News in the hope of finding another link buried somewhere, but instead found this splendid bit of tosh:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8324428.stm
Note that the phrase “peer-reviewed” figures prominently in the body text.

Sandy

When will these morons realize that low arctic ice is dumping enormous amounts of heat out to space. I think DaveE suggested this forms a negative feedback system pulling the climate back to equilibrium, or at least its attractor.
Positive feedback and linear trends in the climate system are for kid’s stories.

DennisA

Climate variation in the European Arctic during the last 100 years
First Author Hanssen-Bauer, Inger, Organization: Norwegian Meteorological Institute. CliC International Project Office
http://acsys.npolar.no/meetings/final/metadata_pabstracts.php?s=0&table=Abstracts&id=20&parid=&tag=&country=&letter=&sorder=&stype=&limit=&q=
The State of the Arctic Climate System
Analyses of climate series from the European Arctic show major inter-annual and inter-decadal variability, but no statistically significant long-term trend in annual mean temperature during the 20th century in this region. The temperature was generally increasing up to the 1930s, decreasing from the 1930s to the 1960s, and increasing from the 1960s to 2000. The temperature level in the 1990s was still lower than it was during the 1930s.

The money quote for me was at the end. If the rate of global temperature rise increases.
By the way, isn’t today supposed to be the day when Piers Corbyn releases his methodology

April E. Coggins

We expect Arctic ice to continue to decline in line with increasing global temperatures. If the rate of global temperature rise increases then so will the rate of Arctic sea-ice decline.
They remain ready to bravely jump either way, depending on the weather. LOL!

kim

I like this in the last paragraph: “The observed temporary recovery…….indicates that the Arctic Ice has not yet reached a tipping point, if such exists.” I like it for two reasons, one is that they are introducing doubt that a tipping point exists and the other is their complete inability to sense that a tipping point has been reached, one that has now tipped the whole process back into freezing back up.
They are tiptoeing around in the dark. What happens when the light goes on?
============================================

Manfred

to regain some credibility, the first thing to do would be to remove the 2 obviously false upwards step changes in the sea-ice history, the latter occuring when switching to satellite data
the second fix would require to replace the flat lines before the satellite era with a cyclical line that is at least reasonably consistent with historical reports.
the third fix would be to replace the linear trend line with a cyclical trend.

John Lish

More interesting is that they said that half the IPCC models don’t correspond with reality:
“About half of the climate models involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years.”
That’s quite damning.

Back2Bat

“Why are these people NEVER held accountable for their failure to forcast anything????” mrpkw
“Let’s not bicker and argue over who killed who!”” Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Fred from Canuckistan . . .

paraphrasing Kate . . . when Pen Hadow and the UK Met office are arguing, you should pray for an asteroid hit not take sides

Tim Clark

Since there’s only a single “Robust”, they must not be very sure of themselves.

MattN

Can someone please link to the article which states that the Arctic will be ice free by 2010? Or was is 2012?
Either way, I’d like to see the original prediction….

Alan the Brit

Contradictions prevail:-
“invariably recovers from extreme events.”
“show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years.”
Well, which is it, it cannot be both!
What human signal, not that old chestnut of CO2 increases coupled with temperature increases? Correlation does not equal causation!

Gary

There’s an interesting pattern emerging on the current AMSR-E sea ice extent chart. It looks to be following the 2006 track in shape, but at a much lower total area number. Anybody know if the weather patterns in the two years are similar?

Wondering Aloud

“long-term trend of reduction is robust”
“Robust” here is an unclear term. In this case it is used in place of the more accurate but less tasteful term BS.

Colin Porter

“About half of the climate models involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years.”
With a 23% recovery from 2007, the Met office must be telling us that 50% of models are wrong. Now we only need to get rid of the remaing 50%.

Back2Bat

“Your comment is awaiting moderation”
Mr. Moderator,
What am I, some kinda of bad boy? I see 4 comments after mine that have been approved. Perhaps there is more than one moderator. That I can understand.
I can take insults from Leif since I consider the source but if I am on some special list then just ban me outright or take me off it.

hunter

The cowards in the aGW promotion industry clearly do not have the strength of their convictions.
Apocalyptic claptrap always sees these kinds of mealy mouthed excuses and ‘clarifications’.

Robinson

In other Stupid news, Global Warming is set to raise the cost of a loaf of bread to £6.50.

Jordan

Difficult to know where to start with this one.
“2007 … reaching an all-time low”
By all-time low, can we take it they mean since 1979?
“Modelling … shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events”
Can’t recall hearing that point being emphasised in the past. Better late than never I suppose.
” in part, to unusual weather patterns”
Can’t recall that point being made at the time. Perhaps they’ve been watching Jeff ID’s most excellent video demonstration.
“The trend and observed variability, including the minimum extent observed in 2007, is consistent with climate modelling from the Met Office.”
We’ll be looking forward to assessing the accuracy of their prediction for next year, taking into account their ability to model trend and variability. When does the Met Office propose to publish its prediction?
“About half of the climate models involved ”
That’s about as even-stevens as it gets. Half don’t agree with the other half.
“now enough data to detect a human signal in the 30-year trend”
So the trend period is varied to get the required answer. What was all that about not cherry-picking the last 10 years to make a point?

David

Bearing in mind that TWO of the “quality” selection of people who are credited with proving content for the London Science Museum’s Prove-**it website are from the Met Office, I wonder if the museum will rewrite the content to match this new data?

DR

You’d swear the entire history of planet is encapsulated in the last 30 years.
“all time low” “long-term trend” “expected”

“Kaboom (04:25:28) :
It really breaks my heart to see those poley bears floating away on their tiny little ice-floes, and no-one cares about them at all.
The deniers screech that “their population is increasing!”
OK, so logic says that there will be MORE poley bears floating around like the flotsam and jetsam of capitalist society.
Shame.”
The funny part is……………………….. You are serious !!!!!!!!!!!!

“Back2Bat (06:02:07) :
“Your comment is awaiting moderation”
Mr. Moderator,
What am I, some kinda of bad boy? I see 4 comments after mine that have been approved. Perhaps there is more than one moderator. That I can understand.
I can take insults from Leif since I consider the source but if I am on some special list then just ban me outright or take me off it.

You are not special (insert joke here).
We all wait in que

Frank K.

I’m not surprised by this, coming on the heels of the bungled forecast for 2009 ice extent by the NSIDC:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/08/09/tech/main5228298.shtml
UKTOYAKTUK, Northwest Territories, Aug. 9, 2009
Vast Expanses of Arctic Ice Melt in Summer
Scientists Watch for Possible Record Low of Polar Ice Cap

I’m frankly getting sick and tired of this constant scientific drivel about polar ice coming from people who should simply be telling us the facts rather than aiding and abetting the MSM in telling yet another AGW scare story.
And, of course, we should ask where is the follow-up in the MSM when the forecasts are way off, as was the case this year? Well, here’s the follow up:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/15/tech/main5385527.shtml
LONDON, Oct. 15, 2009
Study: Arctic Ice Will Melt in 10 Years
British Explorers Return from North Pole with Ice Data Suggesting it Will Soon Disappear in Summer Months
(CBS/AP) The North Pole will turn into an open sea during summer within a decade, according to data released by a team of explorers who trekked through the Arctic for three months.
CBS News correspondent Elizabeth Palmer reports that the explorers walked – and swam – 280 miles across the Arctic ice of the Beaufort Sea, north of Alaska, drilling hundreds of ice samples as they went.
The Catlin Arctic Survey team, led by explorer Pen Hadow, measured the thickness of the ice as it sledged through the northern part of the Beaufort Sea earlier this year during their research project. Their findings show that most of the ice in the region is first-year ice that is only around six feet deep and will melt next summer. The region has traditionally contained, thicker multiyear ice which does not melt as rapidly.

And a mere two weeks later we have the Met office contradicting this report!

Good news!, Global Warming is melting away!
No one of us will be here then. How could we do to make them accountable for their predictions?.
Well. Anyway it is an acceptable and political scape goat.

Janice The American Elder

Back2Bat, it was probably that Monty Python quote. They had to check that it was accurate . . .
I’ve had the same thing happen to me, of my comments awaiting moderation, and I’m usually just off topic with my comments. I don’t think you should take it personally. And besides, you don’t know if those four comments were actually submitted before yours, and maybe they had to wait 30 minutes before their comments were approved.

CheshireRed

I Googled ‘ice free Arctic’ and here’s a couple of BBC links that positively scream ‘catastrophe’, plus one from NatGeo’.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8307272.stm
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/10/091015-arctic-ice-free-gone-global-warming.html
Now what, pray, are the odds of both these august media organisations running similar stories any time soon, just as the Met’ Office has revised back its latest guesses by another 50-70 years?
PS. Note the BBC’s efforts; first in 2007 and then a pant wetting repeat in 2009. Not biased at all, then.

“The observed temporary recovery from the 2007 minimum in 2008 and 2009 indicates that the Arctic ice has not yet reached a tipping point, if such exists.”
An interesting sentence, which questions the notion of an arctic tipping point (heresy), notes the recovery since 2007 (near heresy) but refers to it as temporary (back to safe orthodox territory).
So, what’s this mean for the death spiral?

PaulH

“Gosh, who to believe? Somebody that fakes biotelemetry data or somebody that won’t hand over climate data for replication studies?”
I think they should bring out that roulette wheel the “experts” were playing with a few months back. Just add numbers representing “the years before the arctic melts after we are gone” and give it a spin.

Myron Mesecke

kim (05:24:13) :
“They are tiptoeing around in the dark. What happens when the light goes on?”
They scatter like roaches?

geo

“all-time low”. . . in the last 30 years when we have semi-accurate numbers.
I understand newspapers have space constraints, but c’mon.

the_Butcher

What about Al Gore’s 5 fingers last year conference in Germany?
It’s 4 fingers left now…

Anthony: Of all the questions you’ve asked over the years, this one, “Gosh, who to believe? Somebody that fakes biotelemetry data or somebody that won’t hand over climate data for replication studies?” is the easiest to answer.
Neither.

Stephen Goldstein

With apologies to John Cleese, Brilliant . . . Simply Brilliant.
Possibly, responding to criticism of non-falsifiability, the warmists have provided a falsifiable prediction. Sadly, as pointed out earlier, few of us will be around to call them on it in 2060 or thereabouts.

Corey

Kim,
I like that line too:
<blockquote.The observed temporary recovery from the 2007 minimum in 2008 and 2009 indicates that the Arctic ice has not yet reached a tipping point, if such exists.
The are packpeddling on the whole idea of “tipping points”, a CYA approach. The only problem is that it is too late for them to take this stance.

From the press release, “The high variability has made it difficult to attribute the observed trend to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, although there is now enough data to detect a human signal in the 30-year trend.”
They can detect it but they didn’t quantify it.
They continue, “The trend and observed variability, including the minimum extent observed in 2007, is consistent with climate modelling from the Met Office.”
But it’s also consistent with a multidecadal period where El Nino events dominate.
They continue, “About half of the climate models involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years. The observed temporary recovery from the 2007 minimum in 2008 and 2009 indicates that THE ARCTIC ICE HAS NOT REACHED A TIPPING POINT, IF SUCH EXISTS.”
[My caps]
They conclude with, “We expect Arctic ice to continue to decline in line with increasing global temperatures. If the rate of global temperature rise increases then so will the rate of Arctic sea-ice decline.”
And if global temperatures do not continue to rise…