But they do say that “first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080”. By then there will be nobody that remembers this forecast.
Yet on the same day, bumbling Arctic explorer Pen Hadow says in a UK Telegraph interview:
“To all intents and purposes the Arctic will be ice free in a decade. I do find the implications of this happening in my lifetime quite shocking.“.
Gosh, who to believe? Somebody that fakes biotelemetry data or somebody that won’t hand over climate data for replication studies?
From a Met Office press release on October 15th
The extent of Arctic sea ice has been decreasing since the late 1970s. In 2007 it decreased dramatically in a single year, reaching an all-time low. At the time it was widely reported that this was caused by man-made climate change and that the rate of decline of summer sea ice was increasing.
Modelling of Arctic sea ice by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events, and that the long-term trend of reduction is robust — with the first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080. It is unlikely that the Arctic will experience ice-free summers by 2020.
Analysis of the 2007 summer sea-ice minimum has subsequently shown that this was due, in part, to unusual weather patterns. Arctic weather systems are highly variable year-on-year and the prevailing winds can enhance, or oppose, the southward flow of ice into the Atlantic. Consequently, the sea ice has not declined every year, but has shown considerable variability — both in extent and thickness.
The high variability has made it difficult to attribute the observed trend to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, although there is now enough data to detect a human signal in the 30-year trend. The trend and observed variability, including the minimum extent observed in 2007, is consistent with climate modelling from the Met Office.
About half of the climate models involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years. The observed temporary recovery from the 2007 minimum in 2008 and 2009 indicates that the Arctic ice has not yet reached a tipping point, if such exists. We expect Arctic ice to continue to decline in line with increasing global temperatures. If the rate of global temperature rise increases then so will the rate of Arctic sea-ice decline.
h/t to WUWT reader Patrick Davis
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So let’s hear this publicly from Al Gore.
“though there is now enough data to detect a human signal in the 30-year trend. The trend and observed variability, including the minimum extent observed in 2007, is consistent with climate modeling from the Met Office.”
Insert
Tom Hanks’ laugh from “The Money Pit”
/Insert
It seems to me that when an organization or researcher refuses to release his data that it cannot really be called ‘data’. It is, after all, only rumor, until released, & should be refered to by that name.
kim (05:24:13) :
“They are tiptoeing around in the dark. What happens when the light goes on?”
I reckon that’s when they find they’ve got no clothes on! 😉
For Fred from Canuckistan;
“when Pen Hadow and the UK Met office are arguing, you should pray for an asteroid hit not take sides…”
Seen this one from October 8th?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/6444895/Asteroid-explosion-over-Indonesia-raises-fears-about-Earths-defences.html
“Jeff (08:09:15) :
It seems to me that when an organization or researcher refuses to release his data that it cannot really be called ‘data’. It is, after all, only rumor, until released, & should be refered to by that name.”
I like that idea !
Well who’d have thought the Met Office would jump onto the ‘lets-cover-our-arses’ train this soon… :>o
Much better if they came clean and said,
“We now realise that the degree of ice formed at the poles is the end result of many inter-linked non-deterministic dynamic chaotic processes, as is the rest of Earth’s climate systems. Currently we have no clear understand of how these complex processes work on an individual basis, or how they interact with each other to produce the nett effect.
We also do not have accurate enough data of sufficient granularity to even start to quantify the outcomes of these processes and even if we did, the power of the total population of computers in the world would be insufficient to process the data to be able to provide accurate forecasts of climate change.
Until all the above issues have been resolved, the best information we can give is that our sun is the main driver of climate change, and CO2 has little or no effect.”
Until the Met Office decides to be honest and publish the above statement of fact, they are not an organisation to be respected or trusted.
As Piers Corbyn would say, “It’s the sun, stupid”… 😉
The UK Met office is widely rejected by the population due to its constant failure to predict “hottest Summer ever” every year!
MattN (05.04.06)
Google ”arctic ice free by 2010” and you get 336,000 results, now how many are the BBC and IPCC I will leave up to you.
Have fun !
With a summer ice-free prediction of 2060-80 there must be intermediate predictions, let’s ask for those and see how accurate the met office is in the near term, rather than waiting for 50+ years.
“Jeff”(08:0:15) And what of the peers who review this data less research? Are they not simply rumor mongers?
mrpkw (06:16:01) :
I think you should visit Kabooms spoof alarmist site LOL
DaveE.
Fidel Castro said you should predict things far enough in the future so you won’t be around to explain why they didn’t happen. The MET finally figured this out. Perhaps they should apply the same logic to their summer and winter forecasts. “2087 will have unusually warm weather.”
I predict we’ll all be dead by 2105. (I know it will be cold by 21:05)
Lo! The weasely wordsmiths at the Met Office are ‘robustly’ backpedalling, glory be!
“Ifs and buts and apples and nuts” as my father used to say and are the Met finally reading the BIG picture?
Mr. McIntyre’s recent clinical deconstruction of Briffa, some off message doubters at the BBC…………….. something’s afoot.
Alas the loony British Politicians continue the ‘we’re all doomed’ scenario, do they not read anything about and around the subject of AGW………..do they read??
If anyone were to read recent relevant news/science articles, they would surely conclude that the science is very, very far from settled and back off…………..fat chance!
The Arctic Ocean sea ice is not going away anytime soon, 2060/80 it will be there still, I’m equally confident in saying, that I won’t be.
“Modelling[sic] of Arctic sea ice by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events, and that the long-term trend of reduction is robust — with the first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080.
For “robust” read “a bust.”
For “2060 and 2080” read “later and even later”
So much for their models.
And in a generation, these same type of backward looking people will be warning of a new ice age, even though the climate will again be warming up a bit.
In climate, as in every other publicly-funded endeavor, disaster looms and must be carefully studied {♫ Money … ♫ We need money … ♫ We need lots and lots of money ♫} to prepare for the coming predicted changes.
“And what of the peers who review this data less research? Are they not simply rumor mongers?”
To quote Jerry: “Worse. Much, much worse.”
Andrew
“first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080″.
Well, John (Swiftboat) Kerry is recently on record as saying that the Arctic will be ice free by 2013. Who, indeed, to believe?
I thought the “science” was settled, but how can that be if only half of their “models” are correct? So, evidently the AGWers have not “settled” on their own “science”.
MattN (05:45:06) :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Matt, was a pretty easy google search.
F. Ross (09:17:36)
That ought to be re-written as : “Observations based on non Met Office satellite data shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events….
“Tipping points” were pounded into AGW alarmists’ heads when as children on the school yard they mounted the teeter-totter by wrapping their legs around the board in the up-side-down position.
So the record lows are caused by natural variability well, well
And in Antarctica
An interesting post on real climate explaining that reduced Antarctic ice melt observed in recent years is not inconsistent with AGW. In this analysis they are, IMO, correct but they use natural variability to explain why. Agani probably correct but if natural variability matters then it matters generally and until GCM’s build ENSO, NAO, SAM and the rest into their models they are never going to deliver robust ( sic) results
OIn summary record low antractic melts and record high arctic melts are both caused by natural variability… and what else I wonder.. quite a lot and nobody knows till we get models that work
“You are not special (insert joke here).” mrpkw
We are all special.
Take this Back2Bat (preemptive self-rebuke)!
“For anger slays the foolish man,
And jealousy kills the simple. Job 5:2
touché
A fool’s anger is known at once,
But a prudent man conceals dishonor. Proverbs 12:16
ouch!
Do not be eager in your heart to be angry,
For anger resides in the bosom of fools. Ecclesiastes 7:9
feel free to pile on!
Thanks Janice.
Oh,
I apologize Mr. Moderator for the “special list remark.” I ignore that still, gentle voice to my own harm.