But they do say that “first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080”. By then there will be nobody that remembers this forecast.
Yet on the same day, bumbling Arctic explorer Pen Hadow says in a UK Telegraph interview:
“To all intents and purposes the Arctic will be ice free in a decade. I do find the implications of this happening in my lifetime quite shocking.“.
Gosh, who to believe? Somebody that fakes biotelemetry data or somebody that won’t hand over climate data for replication studies?
From a Met Office press release on October 15th
The extent of Arctic sea ice has been decreasing since the late 1970s. In 2007 it decreased dramatically in a single year, reaching an all-time low. At the time it was widely reported that this was caused by man-made climate change and that the rate of decline of summer sea ice was increasing.
Modelling of Arctic sea ice by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events, and that the long-term trend of reduction is robust — with the first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080. It is unlikely that the Arctic will experience ice-free summers by 2020.
Analysis of the 2007 summer sea-ice minimum has subsequently shown that this was due, in part, to unusual weather patterns. Arctic weather systems are highly variable year-on-year and the prevailing winds can enhance, or oppose, the southward flow of ice into the Atlantic. Consequently, the sea ice has not declined every year, but has shown considerable variability — both in extent and thickness.
The high variability has made it difficult to attribute the observed trend to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, although there is now enough data to detect a human signal in the 30-year trend. The trend and observed variability, including the minimum extent observed in 2007, is consistent with climate modelling from the Met Office.
About half of the climate models involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years. The observed temporary recovery from the 2007 minimum in 2008 and 2009 indicates that the Arctic ice has not yet reached a tipping point, if such exists. We expect Arctic ice to continue to decline in line with increasing global temperatures. If the rate of global temperature rise increases then so will the rate of Arctic sea-ice decline.
h/t to WUWT reader Patrick Davis
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Let’s see if the MSM reports this ‘correction’.
As they say the first casualty in war is the truth. Seems like the alarmists have gotten to the point where they are totally unbelievable.
Fascinating. In Klyashtorin and Lyubushin’s book, they show how Arctic ice coverage mirrors global temperature, with an 8 year lag, and predict 30 years of global cooling. So, if 2007 was the nadir of Arctic ice, followed by 30 years of “robust” recovery of ice, that would put the start of the next melting in about 2037. Thirty years of melting after that could mean an ice free Arctic in the 2060-2080 window. Has the Met started reading Russian?
http://alexeylyubushin.narod.ru/Climate_Changes_and_Fish_Productivity.pdf?
Well, it’s a start.
“But they do say that “first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080″. By then there will be nobody that remembers this forecast.”
Why are these people NEVER held accountable for their failure to forcast anything????
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
What is all the fuss about again?
It really breaks my heart to see those poley bears floating away on their tiny little ice-floes, and no-one cares about them at all.
The deniers screech that “their population is increasing!”
OK, so logic says that there will be MORE poley bears floating around like the flotsam and jetsam of capitalist society.
Shame.
Human signal in the 30-year trend – which exactly?
AFAIK, in 2007/8/9 the NW passage got opened for the first time since – surprise, surprise – 1941/44.
Not to forget: http://i680.photobucket.com/albums/vv161/Radiant_2009/popularmechanics1957-2.jpg
They seem to be covering their backsides with every paragraph, yet despite attributing the 2007 to prevailing winds (somewhat belatedly) they still claim it is consistent with the model that originally told them it was global warming wot dun it!
These are supposed to be leading climate scientists yet they don’t seem to apply any logical analysis to what they say. I think they are slowly reaching a tipping point when they fess up and admit it is all part of natural cycles and that man’s CO2 contribution will not cause runaway anything.
“But they do say that “first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080″. By then there will be nobody that remembers this forecast.”
Kinda’ reminds me of a sign some bars have hanging up as a joke:
“Free Beer Tomorrow.”
In effect, all we ever see is a sign that says “The Ice Will Be Gone Tomorrow.”
Dorlomin: DMI is not posting because since October 1 data not reliable. Upon re-adjustment will look more like 2005 probably…same applies to Jaxa, Norsex etc. CT just goes ahead they dont care….as long as it goes down
The bottom line is that if your 1 year or 5 year forecast is flaky, why should your 50 year forecast be any better?
Free ice next year
Science is in
Surely we will see a blizzard soon
Sadly, I’m getting a “connection reset” error when trying to access the Met Office page linked to from above. I did search Google News in the hope of finding another link buried somewhere, but instead found this splendid bit of tosh:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8324428.stm
Note that the phrase “peer-reviewed” figures prominently in the body text.
When will these morons realize that low arctic ice is dumping enormous amounts of heat out to space. I think DaveE suggested this forms a negative feedback system pulling the climate back to equilibrium, or at least its attractor.
Positive feedback and linear trends in the climate system are for kid’s stories.
Climate variation in the European Arctic during the last 100 years
First Author Hanssen-Bauer, Inger, Organization: Norwegian Meteorological Institute. CliC International Project Office
http://acsys.npolar.no/meetings/final/metadata_pabstracts.php?s=0&table=Abstracts&id=20&parid=&tag=&country=&letter=&sorder=&stype=&limit=&q=
The State of the Arctic Climate System
Analyses of climate series from the European Arctic show major inter-annual and inter-decadal variability, but no statistically significant long-term trend in annual mean temperature during the 20th century in this region. The temperature was generally increasing up to the 1930s, decreasing from the 1930s to the 1960s, and increasing from the 1960s to 2000. The temperature level in the 1990s was still lower than it was during the 1930s.
The money quote for me was at the end. If the rate of global temperature rise increases.
By the way, isn’t today supposed to be the day when Piers Corbyn releases his methodology
We expect Arctic ice to continue to decline in line with increasing global temperatures. If the rate of global temperature rise increases then so will the rate of Arctic sea-ice decline.
They remain ready to bravely jump either way, depending on the weather. LOL!
I like this in the last paragraph: “The observed temporary recovery…….indicates that the Arctic Ice has not yet reached a tipping point, if such exists.” I like it for two reasons, one is that they are introducing doubt that a tipping point exists and the other is their complete inability to sense that a tipping point has been reached, one that has now tipped the whole process back into freezing back up.
They are tiptoeing around in the dark. What happens when the light goes on?
============================================
to regain some credibility, the first thing to do would be to remove the 2 obviously false upwards step changes in the sea-ice history, the latter occuring when switching to satellite data
the second fix would require to replace the flat lines before the satellite era with a cyclical line that is at least reasonably consistent with historical reports.
the third fix would be to replace the linear trend line with a cyclical trend.
More interesting is that they said that half the IPCC models don’t correspond with reality:
“About half of the climate models involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, show that ice declines in steps — failing to recover from extreme years.”
That’s quite damning.
“Why are these people NEVER held accountable for their failure to forcast anything????” mrpkw
“Let’s not bicker and argue over who killed who!”” Monty Python and the Holy Grail
paraphrasing Kate . . . when Pen Hadow and the UK Met office are arguing, you should pray for an asteroid hit not take sides
Since there’s only a single “Robust”, they must not be very sure of themselves.
Can someone please link to the article which states that the Arctic will be ice free by 2010? Or was is 2012?
Either way, I’d like to see the original prediction….