What climate news you aren't seeing in the American press but can in Iran

It’s really rather sad that you can read about Svensmark’s climate research in an Iranian news outlet (FARS) but you won’t see any mention of it in American press, such as in the NYT. A search for Svensmark (and also cosmic rays) yields nothing. Maybe Andy Revkin just hasn’t gotten around to it yet, but if I were in his shoes, I wouldn’t enjoy being scooped by Iran. WUWT covered this story, complete with comments direct from Dr. Svensmark, nearly one month ago. See here.

NYT-svensmark-search

FARS-iran

Here’s the story from FARS:

===

TEHRAN (FNA)- New research by the National Space Institute in the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) validated 13 years of discoveries that point to a key role for cosmic rays in climate change.

Billions of tons of water droplets vanish from the atmosphere in events that reveal in detail how the Sun and the stars control our everyday clouds.

DTU Researchers have traced the consequences of eruptions on the Sun that screen the Earth from some of the cosmic rays – the energetic particles raining down on our planet from exploded stars.

“The Sun makes fantastic natural experiments that allow us to test our ideas about its effects on the climate,” lead author of a report newly published in Geophysical Research Letters Prof. Henrik Svensmark said.

When solar explosions interfere with the cosmic rays there is a temporary shortage of small aerosols, chemical specks in the air that normally grow until water vapor can condense on them, so seeding the liquid water droplets of low-level clouds.

Because of the shortage, clouds over the ocean can lose as much as 7 per cent of their liquid water within seven or eight days of the cosmic-ray minimum.

“A link between the Sun, cosmic rays, aerosols, and liquid-water clouds appears to exist on a global scale,” the report concludes.

This research, to which Torsten Bondo and Jacob Svensmark contributed, validates 13 years of discoveries that point to a key role for cosmic rays in climate change.

In particular, it connects observable variations in the world’s cloudiness to laboratory experiments in Copenhagen showing how cosmic rays help to make the all-important aerosols.

Other investigators have reported difficulty in finding significant effects of the solar eruptions on clouds, and Henrik Svensmark understands their problem.

“It’s like trying to see tigers hidden in the jungle, because clouds change a lot from day to day whatever the cosmic rays are doing,” he says.

The first task for a successful hunt was to work out when “tigers” were most likely to show themselves, by identifying the most promising instances of sudden drops in the count of cosmic rays, called Forbush decreases.

Previous research in Copenhagen predicted that the effects should be most notice-able in the lowest 3000 meters of the atmosphere. The team identified 26 Forbush decreases since 1987 that caused the biggest reductions in cosmic rays at low altitudes, and set about looking for the consequences.

The first global impact of the shortage of cosmic rays is a subtle change in the color of sunlight, as seen by ground stations of the aerosol robotic network AERONET.

By analyzing its records during and after the reductions in cosmic rays, the DTU team found that violet light from the Sun looked brighter than usual. A shortage of small aerosols, which normally scatter violet light as it passes through the air, was the most likely reason. The color change was greatest about five days after the minimum counts of cosmic rays.

Henrik Svensmark and his team were not surprised by it, because the immediate action of cosmic rays, seen in laboratory experiments, creates micro-clusters of sulphuric acid and water molecules that are too small to affect the AERONET observations.

Only when they have spent a few days growing in size should they begin to show up, or else be noticeable by their absence. The evidence from the aftermath of the Forbush decreases, as scrutinized by the Danish team, gives aerosol experts valuable information about the formation and fate of small aerosols in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Although capable of affecting sunlight after five days, the growing aerosols would not yet be large enough to collect water droplets. The full impact on clouds only becomes evident two or three days later.

It takes the form of a loss of low-altitude clouds, because of the earlier loss of small aerosols that would normally have grown into “cloud condensation nuclei” capable of seeding the clouds.

“Then it’s like noticing bare patches in a field, where a farmer forgot to sow the seeds,” Svensmark explains. “Three independent sets of satellite observations all tell a similar story of clouds disappearing, about a week after the minimum of cosmic rays.”

Averaging satellite data on the liquid-water content of clouds over the oceans, for the five strongest Forbush decreases from 2001 to 2005, the DTU team found a 7 per cent decrease, as mentioned earlier.

That translates into 3 billion tons of liquid water vanishing from the sky. The water remains the-re in vapor form, but unlike cloud droplets it does not get in the way of sunlight trying to warm the ocean. After the same five Forbush decreases, satellites measuring the extent of liquid-water clouds revealed an average reduction of 4 per cent. Other satellites showed a similar 5 per cent reduction in clouds below 3200 meters over the ocean.

“The effect of the solar explosions on the Earth’s cloudiness is huge,” Henrik Svensmark comments.

“A loss of clouds of 4 or 5 per cent may not sound very much, but it briefly increases the sunlight reaching the oceans by about 2 watt per square meter, and that’s equivalent to all the global warming during the 20th Century.”

The Forbush decreases are too short-lived to have a lasting effect on the climate, but they dramatize the mechanism that works more patiently during the 11-year solar cycle.

When the Sun becomes more active, the decline in low-altitude cosmic radiation is greater than that seen in most Forbush events and the loss of low cloud cover persists for long enough to warm the world.

That explains, according to the DTU team, the alternations of warming and cooling seen in the lower atmosphere and in the oceans during solar cycles.

The director of the Danish National Space Institute, DTU, Eigil Friis-Christensen, was co-author with Svensmark of an early report on the effect of cosmic rays on cloud cover, back in 1996.

Commenting on the latest paper he said, “The evidence has piled up, first for the link between cosmic rays and low-level clouds and then, by experiment and observation, for the mechanism involving aerosols. All these consistent scientific results illustrate that the current climate models used to predict future climate are lacking important parts of the physics”.

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
P Gosselin

But this is on NBC!
Snow coming to Chicago – already!
http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local-beat/No-Kidding-Snow-on-Sunday–63751227.html
Gobal warming will soon get harder and harder to sell.

Indiana Bones

“Maybe Andy Revkin just hasn’t gotten around to it yet, but if I were in his shoes, I wouldn’t enjoy being scooped by Iran.”
Perhaps the New York Times only speaks Farcie?

P Gosselin

Somehow we have to combine the American tradition of freedom and entrpreneurship together with Iranain openness on science, and we’ll be fine!

gt

It’s a bit unfair to expect a small section of NYT (Dot Earth) to carry all climate-related news, and compare it to a national news agency…

SteveSadlov

“If the snow sticks, it would be the earliest recorded measurable snowfall in Chicago. The record was set just three years ago when it snowed on Oct. 12.”

Pete

That’s weird that the New York Times did not cover this, because it seems like a major climate st….. oh yeah, never mind.

Alan the Brit

Excellent post & very interesting.
“All these consistent scientific results illustrate that the current climate models used to predict future climate are lacking important parts of the physics”.
Now why does that not surprise me. Computer models were & are used by economists to predict likely ups & downs in the markets, so that they know when to buy or to sell, so my accountant tells me. They didn’t predict what came next did they? Computer models were used by a dubiously competent senior scientist to resolve the Foot & Mouth disease issue over here a few years ago, & look at the absolute carnage that was caused by it thro’ shear bloody arrogance & pride when there were more humane & efficient ways of resolving the issue, & many were saying so but it fell on deaf ears (no news there then) & the stench of death consumed Dartmoor & elsewhere in the UK. I understand that these scares of SARS & Swine Flu were carried out by computer models, I could be wrong but I am still waiting for my dose. Finally, computer models are used to predict the climate (& weather too), & they don’t seem to be panning out too well right now. Is it me, or is there a pattern emerging? WAGTD!

rbateman

When Europe sank into the Dark Ages, it was the Moslem world that took up science. That may happen again as the warmists seek to bind the West with thier Gaia beliefs.
Funny, but this story in Iran shows a true separation of science and religion.

Michael

Time For a New Climate Model Temperature Influences Theory, by yours truly.
1)Sun Irradiation 91%
2)Typical cloud planetary aerosol water vapor formation greenhouse effect. 5%
3)Cosmic ray cloud seeding effect. 1.5%
4)Greenhouse gas emissions from all sources. 2%
5)unknown .4999999%
6)Mans CO2 contribution .0000001%
Obviously these categories can be broken down into many sub categories and the numbers tweaked a bit. I challenge anyone to prove a significant deviation in my predicted numbers.

wsbriggs

As has been posted here previously – major cases of GIGO – garbage in = garbage out. Works for both computers and the higher education “system.”
As a solid state (PC Material Science) physicist by training, and experimentalist by inclination, I have very little patience with “scientists” who claim science from “first principles” by computer when the output doesn’t anywhere match the available data. It’s one thing to predict a picosecond ripple around an aluminized deuterium drop, and verify it with a high speed camera, and another to predict temperature rises in a chaotic system with bogus inputs, then hide the flawed input data for fear of being found out.
Bad science comes from poor science students, with poor math skills, and poor teachers. It’s changeable, but it will take a couple of generations.

Harold Vance

You have to wonder if other planets (though they all have different atmospheres) might experience similar effects with cloud formation.
Mars was heating simultaneously with the earth, according to an article published back in 2007.

Ron de Haan

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=rss&article=0
REPLY: Ron, please do readers the courtesy of describing links – Anthony

Ron de Haan

Yeah, Iran is an ideal country, very open to science, as long as it does not harm it’s crazy regime:
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2009/10/08/87337.html

P Gosselin

Ron
Arctic cold is only a weather event. Haven’t you heard – it has to be hot in order to qualify as a “climate” event.
For example you can see proof of global warming in Alaska!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html

jon

Look at the temps here compared to what is “normal” for this time of year: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-52_metric_e.html

Ron de Haan

The Iranians of course have a major stake opposing the AGW Hoax.
Their economy is totally depending on oil exports, like the Saudi Economy:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/6657947.html

Ron de Haan

P Gosselin (10:14:25) :
“Ron
Arctic cold is only a weather event. Haven’t you heard – it has to be hot in order to qualify as a “climate” event.
For example you can see proof of global warming in Alaska!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
I am in full agreement with your assessment.
Al those farting deer and Sarah Palin with her snowmobile!
Hot, hot, hot.

All in all there are signs of a cool-down in the northern hemiphere and the southern sst remains cool. Could be interesting, the next few months.

Rick

The last I heard, Global Cooling is caused by Global warming. Or have we dropped that line already? I’m so confused. I suppose you have to keep on top of these ever changing excuses if you want to stay hip.

Lance

jon (10:24:20) :
It is darn cold eh! However, Sept was 3C above normal!! if that was GW, bring it on, as Env. Canada flip-flopped on its winter forecast and now they are calling for a below normal winter for Alberta! (note weather is not climate…unless its warm…)
(Okotoks)

Harold Ambler

The Times did publish an article on July 22 that, so far as I could tell for the first time, detailed Svensmark’s theory:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/science/space/21sunspot.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all
As for Mr. Revkin, I have only been looking at this work for a few months. In that time, his work has favored alarmism, heavily.

Douglas DC

Iran has got a huge, young inteligent populace.I’ve got some ex-pats in my
family-kids are honor students, pushed by their Iranian mother.Back in my University days there was a large Iranian group of students.Had several in Physics and Chemisty.One was this gorgeous young lady named and her
brother they knew as much as a postgrad. Their father was killed by Jimmah Carter’s effort at sending back Iranian miltary to the Mullahs.For some reason they lied to Carter…

32 degrees and snowing at 5000 feet as I write in Colorado. Not a record, or even that surprising given that it is Colorado, but not really the norm either.

Jerry Lee Davis

It appears to me that, with this article, the Iranian government is merely propagandizing their people just as our government (in the USA at least) propagandizes us (via NOAA, GISS, Al Gore, etc.).
Although most of us WUWT commenters may agree with the article (or at least hope that it is eventually thoroughly proven to be true), we should take no joy in agreeing with Iran on anything.
These people are killing our soldiers, and want to kill a few million inhabitants of the region. Their “open” scientific community has bloody hands as far as I can tell.
The article might well be for the purpose of prepping the Iranian citizenry to support a demand such as the Saudi’s appear to me making in the following story:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/10/08/international/i021839D93.DTL&feed=rss.business

J. Peden

gt (09:20:36) :
It’s a bit unfair to expect a small section of NYT (Dot Earth) to carry all climate-related news, and compare it to a national news agency…
Right, especially when the NYT itself is no longer a truely “national news agency”.
Re: Climate, WUWT just does it better, apparently even without those “layers and layers” of peer-reviewing “Editors” which the “MSM” [antiquated] touts.
And check out what ABC radio thinks is even “news”, every hour on the hour. I hear all kinds of wild stuff there, like once some bees got loose and into a guy’s house, then they turned into “wasps”. Etc..
Comrades, it’s just not “fair”.

NYT — All the news that fits.

Jhereg

Loveland Ski Resort (less than an hour from Denver) opened today. Earliest opening date in 40 years, according to a local news report.
Yes, yes. Weather, not climate. Still, several excellent skiing years in Colorado recently. While the weather may remain great for skiing, the industry may fall victim to the economy, however. As unemployment climbs, and household income drops, skiing may become a luxury affordable to too small a group to sustain an industry of the current size.

Michael
t-bird

Yikes, hard to follow. To summarize:
As sunspot activity declines (and it’s real low this summer),
shielding declines,
cosmic rays reaching the lower atmosphere increase,
aerosols increase,
clouds increase,
reflection increases,
solar heating of the Earth declines.
Unmentioned is whether cosmic rays are responsible for all cloud formation, or just an extra four or five percent.

rbateman

Ron de Haan (10:11:03) :
At least the Iranians have not stooped to using science to inflict harm on thier crazy regime.
In other words, the warmist agenda seeks to impose a lower entropy on Western society and plans to profit by shorting it.
This is just a more advanced form of corporate gobbling, done at a half-hemispherical scale, under guise of Planetary Salvation modeling.

“We’re delighted to have earned the support of NOAA for our climate change initiatives,” said Cynthia Vernon” I bet you are darling. See where your tax dollars go lads. —http://www.ksbw.com/news/21239836/detail.html

Ray

Now we have the real reasons for the UN sanctions against Iran…

Dan

I’m confused-because this is coming from Iranian press (home of the Holocaust is a fabrication theory and we don’t want no stinkin’ A bomb) the publication there lends more credence to the theory? Or we should be more like Iran? If so, how’s their healthcare? Anyone know?

Michael

t-bird (11:47:36) :
“Unmentioned is whether cosmic rays are responsible for all cloud formation, or just an extra four or five percent.”
Bingo!
What are the percentages of all major and minor influences on the climate?

Adam from Kansas

As of today Intellicast’s global maps is showing general cooling in the NH and not much in the way of warming in the SH for the 4 days after today, there’s also indication that for those next 4 days there will still be milder air being driven into the Arctic for heat dumping as seen by its forecast for Barrow Alaska.
It seems like the Oceans aren’t warming in response to the current ENSO event like seen in 1998 and if this El Nino strengthens a little than one wonder if that’s just going to mean even less heat in the oceans than if it right away swapped back to La Nina considering previous discussion here, heat content according to NOAA’s TAO site currently shows no noticable increase nor much of a decrease.

Ron de Haan

P Gosselin (09:16:45) :
“Somehow we have to combine the American tradition of freedom and entrpreneurship together with Iranain openness on science, and we’ll be fine!”
All we are going to share with Iran after they screwed up the Geneva Meeting last week is this:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jwIaLotSkaw29J0t9eD1EF7Ct8VQ

Ron de Haan

rbateman (12:20:54) :
Ron de Haan (10:11:03) :
“At least the Iranians have not stooped to using science to inflict harm on thier crazy regime.
In other words, the warmist agenda seeks to impose a lower entropy on Western society and plans to profit by shorting it.
This is just a more advanced form of corporate gobbling, done at a half-hemispherical scale, under guise of Planetary Salvation modeling.”
rbateman,
It’s a Marxist coup and it ends up with the suppression of the people.
We have to stop it at any price.

Ron de Haan

Ron de Haan (10:04:45) :
“http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=rss&article=0
REPLY: Ron, please do readers the courtesy of describing links – Anthony”
WILCO

blondieBC

How much does a 2 Watt forcing of solar radation change the temperature?

Henry chance

Snow removal.
Shovel ready jobs we have been waiting for. So sad the wind died down and the widmills stopped. I guess electric heat is still rare.
The middle east doesn’t have a problem with posting climate news. They don’t have oil drilling restrictions.

Carlo

P Gosselin (09:13:43)
Al Gore is coming to Chicago 🙂

rbateman

Dan (13:07:35) :
Nothing to be confused about, Dan, this is simply what Eisnehower warned us about.
The corruption of science for political purpose is a recipe for disaster.
Most nations at one time understood and prevented this. You either keep up with the Jones on advancing science by keeping agenda out of it, or you make science into a feeding trough dependent on political whim and bring advance to a screeching halt.
For all of Iran’s failings, this isn’t one of them (agenda-based science steering)

rbateman

Carlo (14:14:30) :
Al Gore better think that one over. The news yesterday from Chicago of a mob fighting over 3500 Rent assistance grants say what’s on folks minds: They need real jobs, not green fantasia promises. Winter is set to hit Chicago, and the desperation to stay warm is going to drive the thought process.
Meanwhile, back at Global Climate Central, the issuing of catastrophic warming continues.
At some point, one no longer needs a climate forecast to see where things are going.

Henry chance

“Because of the shortage, clouds over the ocean can lose as much as 7 per cent of their liquid water within seven or eight days of the cosmic-ray minimum.”
News to me. The middle east lacks in rain and this is critical.
On climate progress there is a new “surge” of articles. Most are political and all are prophetic.
This article is actual cosmic radiation. The Joe Romm stuff is power point slides of 2099 and threats of temps.

Paul R

It’s alarming that some of the posters here believe Iran needs to be “liberated”.
You would think this liberation lie would be at least as transparent as the AGW hoax.

“When solar explosions interfere with the cosmic rays there is a temporary shortage of small aerosols, chemical specks in the air that normally grow until water vapor can condense on them, so seeding the liquid water droplets of low-level clouds….”
This is of course the point of the CLOUD experiment at CERN, which doesn’t seem to be doing much, but which promises a lot…
“CLOUD is an experiment that uses a cloud chamber to study the possible link between galactic cosmic rays and cloud formation. Based at the Proton Synchrotron at CERN, this is the first time a high-energy physics accelerator has been used to study atmospheric and climate science; the results could greatly modify our understanding of clouds and climate…”
http://public.web.cern.ch/Public/en/Research/CLOUD-en.html

Dave

I read the 20 July NYT article (Is the Sun Missing its Spots?) that Harold Ambler linked to in his comment, but it doesn’t mention any recent Svensmark research. Actually, it seems to imply that the data is old : “One possibility proposed a decade ago by Henrik Svensmark and other scientists at the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen looks to high-energy interstellar particles known as cosmic rays.”
I also note that the 5 paragraphs devoted to Svensmark is followed by 5 paragraphs that either debunk or belittle (“the effect was probably small.”) any effect of cosmic rays. Whereas Hathaway’s hypothesis, the major thrust of the article, is not critically assessed, although he seems to have been overly optimistic. As usual, of course, the NYT authors did manage to garble Hathaway’s research (but at least published the 22 July correction).
Finally, what perturbs me most about the FARS article is not that it is Iranian, but that after reading it I had a clear understanding of Svenmark’s hypothesis. After reading the NYT article, I felt somewhat befuddled, but also comforted – the sun will shine again and it will continue to get warm. That’s good, because we had severe late frosts in Edmonton this Spring and I just finished clearing 3 cm of snow off my walkways. Like superDBA comments above about the snow in Colorado, -5 C and snow in Alberta in early October isn’t unusual, but it isn’t normal either. Actually, the current temperature is about 9 degrees C below normal.

Adolfo Giurfa (13:02:24) :
A real challenge: Anybody out there who could provide data on low altitude cloud cover?….I don´t read arabic!
Arabic language is easy… It is spoken exactly as it is written. However, isn’t it Farsi? 🙂