September 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.42 deg. C
October 7th, 2009 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 9 +0.424 +0.554 +0.295 +0.516
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly in September 2009 rebounded again, from +0.23 deg. C in August to +0.42 deg. C in September. The tropics and Northern Hemisphere continue to dominate the signal.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we are still working on switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data. We have added the global sea surface temperature anomalies from the AMSR-E instrument on board the NASA Aqua satellite, computed from files at Remote Sensing Systems, although we are still not done adjusting the display range of those data.
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RSS: update
RSS for September 2009 is: +0.48 °C
The rank is #2 out of 31 Septembers of data.
Source: RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa)
RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.2)
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Scott Mandia (19:51:20) :
Can anybody here explain how natural events can cause the troposphere to be warming while the stratosphere is cooling? (Hint: increased greenhouse gases do this.)
Phil,
You will find few here that support you (I am one) but perhaps those that are silently reading these posts but not commenting will consider your thoughts. That is my hope. I realize that it is very unlikely I will convince the regulars here about AGW just as they know they will likely never convince me otherwise.
Read about the heat transfer mechanisms prevailing in the stratosphere and you’ll find the fallacy related with GHG and the real reason by which the stratosphere is cooling. 🙂
At least on this site we can discuss it. What say you about that Scott?
Nasif Nahle (19:43:34) : ..I cannot find a way for justifying AGWers’ ideology because they understand the laws of thermodynamics in a way opposed to the real knowledge. For example, some months ago I read an AGW argument saying that the natural (for not using “spontaneous”) flow of energy was possible from low energy density systems to high energy density systems. Other AGWers create energy from nothing, and so on. 🙂
That is amazing! and they claim to be scientific! I am astonished.
Since July 2003, the UAH Lower Troposphere data exhibit 74 months of cooling at a rate of -0.1989 per decade… I tend to think of 74 being a bit larger than “a few.”
UAH 74 Months of Cooling
Since April 2000, the linear regression is flat, despite this September’s near-Venusian temp. anomaly…
UAH 113 Months of No Warming
The linear regression is also flat from Dec. 1978 to Dec. 1994…
UAH 192 Months of No Warming
Pretty much all of the “global” warming in the UAH LT series occurred between Jan. 1995 and March 2000…
UAH 62 Months of Warming
If there’s a “few months” of anything in the UAH record… It’s a “few months” of warming.
192 months of no warming… Followed by 62 months of warming… Followed by 113 months of no warming (the last 74 of which were cooling). It looks to me as if there was a step-shift associated with the 1997-1998 ENSO.
Btw – Your paper on the heliospheric magnetic field reconstruction was brilliant. Thank you for posting it.
rbateman (20:12:01) : – That was rather a rash offer but on the plus side you are unlikely to be chained to the wall.
PS temperatures in Copenhagen seem to be getting a bit chilly too. 10 C max and 5 min by Sunday – that is a bit nippy.
Gene Nemetz (20:11:59) : That “spike” is not much of a spike.
In Greece we had a cool summer and a colder than usual September. October is compensating being a bit higher than usual. It is as if the whole weather pattern of the region has moved forward two weeks ( October towards the end usually has what is called “the small summer”).
Maybe winter will compensate by being warmer than usual, like last winter here.
I wonder if the whole average rise is from the spike in the arctic going from 262 to 268 Kelvin (plot on the right panel), really balmy weather!
rbateman (14:22:41) : “At this late juncture, I’ll depend more on what I can see and whom I can talk to as far as the global climate goes. Trust is earned, and the AGW side burned thiers to a crisp a long while back.”
AYE!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Richard (17:23:46) : George E. Smith (16:16:40) :
Which Phil?
I can’t tell them apart!
Scott Mandia (19:51:20) :..I realize that it is very unlikely I will convince the regulars here about AGW just as they know they will likely never convince me otherwise.
NEVER Scott Mandia? Not even if the winter snows didnt melt in summer despite rising CO2 levels? I dont say that is likely but if that happens, or even if it cools the next few years would you still not be convinced?
” Scott Mandia (19:51:20) : I realize that it is very unlikely I will convince the regulars here about AGW just as they know they will likely never convince me otherwise.”
You are correct about you “convincing” me.
Your arguments do not hold water (nor do they hold water vapor).
Furthermore….we should convince you “otherwise” of WHAT, Scott?
That daffodil production in The Netherlands is related to a certain formula of optimal Spring climate?
That inflation of money supply leads to devaluing of currency?
That my favorite color is blue, even though you think it is orange?
That the possible existence of unicorns (sorry Leif to steal) might have an influence on CO2 levels?
You introduce a fantastic theory…that defies science…then the burden of proof is on you to prove it.
Prove it. Show forth the warming.
Where is the hard and fast evidence??
Show it.
You don’t respond…because you can’t.
You AGW guys are all the same.
You make a few posts, then you fly like vampires before garlic when the pressure is on.
Regardless….to reiterate…the BURDEN OF PROOF is on you…and your camp.
For the rest of the scientific community….it is SCIENCE BUSINESS AS USUAL.
Prove. Disprove. Evaluate. Save good stuff. Throw out bad stuff.
And it truly IS a Darwinian struggle for survival.
People like Leif Svalgaard keep all honest on that part!
Grrrrr.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Not surprised to see it that high. The graph on Dr. Spencer’s site (channel 05) has been in record territory most of the month, and even continues to be. So unless there is a precipitous drop (which could happen), expect a similar higher anomaly next month. I’ll say it’ll be between 0.35 – 0.45 for October.
“PS temperatures in Copenhagen seem to be getting a bit chilly too.”
With a bit of luck the Swedes can walk across in december like they did in 1634.
If that happens , there is a god.
anna v (20:44:32) :
I would like to see the circulation pattern that is blowing the cold out of the Arctic on onto N. America, Greenland and possibly Europe.
I see that DMI, and I’m also watching the Cyrosphere Today site to see where the ice is building. It’s moving away from Siberia like it’s being blown that way.
anna v (20:44:32) :
In Greece we had a cool summer and a colder than usual September. October is compensating being a bit higher than usual. It is as if the whole weather pattern of the region has moved forward two weeks ( October towards the end usually has what is called “the small summer”).
Maybe winter will compensate by being warmer than usual, like last winter here.
I wonder if the whole average rise is from the spike in the arctic going from 262 to 268 Kelvin (plot on the right panel), really balmy weather!
Hi Anna… Unfortunately, we are not expecting compensations in winter. Although here in Monterrey Mexico the weather is very similar to the weather in some regions of Greece, only a neutral SO would drive our region into a real cold winter.
Contrary to our expectations, the Southeastern US, i.e. Texas, has enjoyed benign temperatures. For example, the maximum temperature in New Braunfels TX today was 86.00 °F, while here in Monterrey the maximum temperature was 96.80 °F (from BioCab’s thermometers).
Ripper (21:16:07) : With a bit of luck the Swedes can walk across in december like they did in 1634. ..
They can walk across now and so can the Danes for that matter. They now have a bridge.
Bob Shapiro (10:46:13) : “Why does Dr. Spencer use a 13 month moving average!” … “Why wouldn’t you want to use a 12 month moving average so that you can eliminate the seasonal effects?”
Although Bob Tisdale’s graphs shows the difference between a 12 month running average filter and a 13 month one isn’t all that great, I’d like to suggest an alternative that is conceptually simple and only a tiny bit more computation than a simple equally weighted running average.
It’s nice to use 13 months because that centers the average in the center of each month. Using 13 months but using a weighting of 1/2 for the first and last months would minimize any stray seasonal effects. Even though the data from 13 months is being used, each of the 12 months of the year get equal weighting.
I think that this whole concept of global average temperature and climate needs a strong spring cleaning.
1) It s the T^4 dependence of radiation even if it is black body. This means that averaging between day and night does not represent the average radiation which is what really affects climate, nor averaging over seasons and the world over when there are such large differences and the dependence is T^4
2) It is not black body,
it is nota uniform sphere and has large varying heat capacities.
It is not even a sphere: as we know from fractals the dimensions of the land are larger than the dimensions of the surface of the sphere, which means more radiation than a sphere model would expect ( cooler land).
Temperature has a local very important meaning for humans and the biosphere.
I think for a global map, we should have day temperatures, and night temperatures separately, and season’s temperatures, and whenever there is an average the T^4 weight should be applied to take into account what is our real interest, radiation.
Otherwise we will see the poles with 20C higher temperatures in winter and the Thames icing over and be talking of global warming (all that heat gone to the poles:) ).
Not knowing much about sunspots and Earth global temperatures, can someone explain why the anomali is still positive anf going up with we are in the lowest solar activity for a century? I thought that was supposed to give us a little ice age? Or is that starting in October as some people seem to think October will be a lot colder in the posts above.
Thanks
Andy
I think my 7 year old daughter wrote that last paragraph, apologies, imagine it done in crayon to help you understand it 🙂
Regards
Oscar Wilde
I posted under Phil at 14:20:55. Apologies to all for screwing up the thread, as it were.
I’m a big fan of this site, so it’s first place I came to when confronted with this dilemma. Big companies are displaying their socially responsible credentials by signing up to the sustainability movement. If I’m going to resist this, I’d want to get my arguments straight. I’ve assimilated a lot of counter-facts, but how best to counter their points is what I’m asking. Like I said, this may not be the best place to ask these beginner type questions, if so perhaps someone could recommend another site.
Link again for convenience http://assets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_climate_deal_1.pdf
Thanks
Hello neophyte climate realist Phil K. I don’t speak for anybody else here (nor they me), but IMHO warmer is better. More warmth means longer growing seasons, more rain, more bioproductivity, more abundance, more biodiversity, etc. The benefits far outweigh the drawbacks. If I had a vote, I would vote for warmer.
Eventually another Ice Age glaciation is going to ensue, as they have 18 times over the last 1.8 million years. Neoglaciation could begin tomorrow. Some say it already has been happening for the last 6,000 years. If humanity can find a way to forestall the coming Cold, I’m supportive of that. I absolutely see no cause to reduce CO2 emissions. That would be counter productive in every way.
But like I said, my opinion is my own, and not everyone shares it.
[snip]
The 0.42 C anomaly for September is above the IPCC globally averaged surface-warming prediction from the average of the models they used.
i would like to see these number put into perspective:
for example, an el nino / la nina correction could be subtracted or added and the result compared to climate science projections, such as this:
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/06/gret-moments-in.html
and further extrapolated with the IPCC scenario.
so,
subtract 0.2° for el nino and you get a warming of meager
0.25% of hansen’s scenario B
and
0.2% of hansen’s scenario A
(and watch out for the big jump he expected in 2010)
with the ipcc projected figure of 3.5° in 2100 without emission cuts, this would give an updated estimate of
0.2*3.5 = 0.7° or 0.25*3.5 = 0.8°.
I would still reduce these numbers, as recent months were lower and much of the current increase may be attributable to the shutdown of dirty, soot and aerosol producing industry after to the economic breakdown.
An addendum to anna v (22:29:58) :
I have not touched on convection too, ( ocean and atmospheric currents) which introduces other fractal dimensions for radiation computations by changing the topology of “hot” “cold”.
rbateman (21:44:00) :
I would like to see the circulation pattern that is blowing the cold out of the Arctic on onto N. America, Greenland and possibly Europe.
I see that DMI, and I’m also watching the Cyrosphere Today site to see where the ice is building. It’s moving away from Siberia like it’s being blown that way.
Yes.
The arctic can only get 10C warmer while the sun is going nighty-night only by air currents, since it is mostly land locked . We send it our warmth and it sends us its cold. Then by this faulty averaging, that does not take weights of radiation into account, it gets warmer and raises the global temperature anomaly as it is computed now.
AndyW
It certainly LOOKS like the Oceans are giving off a burp of heat. If you think of the Oceans as a giant damper, then the whole thing makes sense. The Ocean is a huge storehouse of ehat and energy. It’s really not surprising that when the sun is in a quiet phase it would act to try to keep the temperature constant. It’s an elegant mechanism, and althogether overlooked by warmists.