September 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.42 deg. C
October 7th, 2009 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 9 +0.424 +0.554 +0.295 +0.516
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly in September 2009 rebounded again, from +0.23 deg. C in August to +0.42 deg. C in September. The tropics and Northern Hemisphere continue to dominate the signal.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we are still working on switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data. We have added the global sea surface temperature anomalies from the AMSR-E instrument on board the NASA Aqua satellite, computed from files at Remote Sensing Systems, although we are still not done adjusting the display range of those data.
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RSS: update
RSS for September 2009 is: +0.48 °C
The rank is #2 out of 31 Septembers of data.
Source: RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa)
RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.2)
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Could the weak El Nino have something to do with the spike?
September certainly wasn’t unusually warm in South Africa, a day or too of 30-something degrees but still waiting for the summer heat to arrive… another cold front has just hit.
So we have the warmest UHA September on record since that faithful 1998 when global cooling started. Heck, it’s the second warmest September per UAH since 1985… nice cherry I’d qualify this pick of mine 😀
Fantastic work Dr Roy! The additional online data availability from the same source you are using for your monthly values will be very welcome. And SST’s too! WOOOOT!
NINO3.4 SST anomalies are still elevated, about the same level they’ve been at for the past few months, but Global SST anomalies have dropped (0.05 deg C for OI.v2 data & 0.07 deg C for ERSST.v3b data) from August to September. Will next month’s TLT anomalies reflect the significant drop in Global SST?
The monthly SST anomaly update is here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/10/september-2009-sst-anomaly-update.html
I’m surprised, judging from the temperatures we’ve had in this region for the year. I realize that this is completely anecdotal, but much of the Midwest experienced a record cold July, followed by an average August, and a slightly cooler-than-normal September. Presently, October is running much cooler than average. In central Ohio we’ve already had a hard frost–about two weeks ahead of the average. And the long-range forecast for the area is predicting increased cooling next week. I would have guessed that global temperatures flattened in September.
Ah, awaiting moderation, well as with RSS, it is in fact the 2nd warmest September since 1979, which is as far back as UAH record goes. Just -0.012C anomaly less than 1998.
Toasty.
I think NOW that El Nino is kicking in.
Relating to temperatures, I saw these stories today:
http://www.ktvb.com/news/nearyou/woodriver/ktvbn-oct0509-wood_river_power.1e96b181a.html
Idaho schoolkids enjoy earliest snow day, ever.
http://www.denverpost.com/extremes/ci_13498572
Loveland pass ski resort opened today, October 7. Arapahoe Basin opens October 9. (I’ve been skiing at Loveland before. Because of being 10,000 feet up the lack of oxygen is murder on your muscles if you aren’t used to it.)
http://www.fox5vegas.com/news/21223890/detail.html
Las Vegas ski resort opens. I always Vegas was hot …
I am willing to bet money that once the cold sets in, it will really set in. Which will make me happy because it means more ski days.
Wade, for the anecdotal, here Rutgers snow anomaly, day 278 of 2009 AD:
http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2009279.png
(red is missing, blue is extra)
I’m sure someone will find a way to argue that it must be those poorly managed thermometers in FSR’s UHI’s causing the misreading ;>)
I predicted a slight fall for equatorial temps but after hindcasting my model I found that it also predicted a possible small rise.
This shows the models outcomes remain both compelling and robust.
Sekerob (10:10:38) : The long term history of the snow data may be of interest:
ttp://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/images/anom_nhland.gif
By the way, what looks like twenty years of stability is really a combination of some very curious seasonally of trends. BUT 87 did see a sudden decline in the smoothed series, with little change before and after. See:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=8
And check out the trends for different months. Most decline happens (surprise!) in spring and summer. Of course, these tend to show less high latitude warming than the winter months, but hey, that’s when it’s too cold to melt ice anyway!
Just in time for the October snows …
Why does Dr. Spencer use a 13 month moving average!? Won’t that automatically give a temperature rise in the NH during June-July-August and a fall in December-January-February (and vice versa for the SH)?
Why wouldn’t you want to use a 12 month moving average so that you can eliminate the seasonal effects?
Also, what happened in July 2009 that would make the global temp jump by over 0.4 degrees? (Yes, I know July is the summer.) If you can have a 1 month jump over 0.4, then why is a peak anomaly less than twice that (0.8 in early 1998) such a big deal?
Isn’t it amazing .When there is A downward trend they start changing the way temps are recorded by closing rural sites or at least 80%.Then they move the monitors and place over ,asphalt, parking lots or on roof tops,i’m sure that won’t have any bearing wood it,or next to aic conditioning unit.Now that makes evering thing legal.You know there use to be A show that Bob Barker hosted back in the 70’s called truth or consaquinses , may be off on spelling,in which contestant wood do different events for money or prizes like walking across the floor then Bob wold say hold on and they may have to hold a foot up and about the time they wood start he would say it again hold on and he may blind fold them and tell them to walk A straight line well you get the picture.When temps show thier true colors they have to change to fit the global warming crap.
Reply: The capital A’s in the middle of sentences is an interesting touch in an otherwise mesmerizing piece of writing. ~ ctm
Thank you Dr Spencer.
Looking forward to the daily temps with Aqua AMSU, and more accurate tracking.
Not long ago some predicted a strong El Nino in the works, but it seems to have all but fizzled away. I almost think there might be a modest La Nina coming.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
I noticed here in Kansas we had a surprisingly small amount of 90 degree days in September, it never got up to 90 like it can get to nearly every year during the days the Kansas State Fair was going and the only 90 degree day here in Wichita I can recall last month was close to the start of Fall. To get any days where you had mid 90’s or so on a day or two you had to go to the southwest corner of the state.
Also, October is looking like the highs could be further below normal than last month, Intellicast is forecasting a high of 47 degrees next Sunday, which is about 25 degrees below the average high and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets revised to 30 degrees or more below the average high.
September in Colorado Springs was cooler than any time in the last ten years, at least. Pikes Peak became snow-covered in mid-September, and it hasn’t melted completely. We’ll get a fresh bout or three of snow later this week. The aspens turned at least two weeks ahead of normal in the high country. The rest of the world may have warmed, but we didn’t.
For what it’s worth, Western Canada broke many records in September for warm weather; and broke many records for cold weather in July and August. It’s been a very strange year.
ctm,
I was as fascinated as you were by that literary composition. It is almost Chauceresque.
Your comment had me laughing out loud!
It was those amazingly hot Siberian temperatures, the residual heat of which is now retarding the growth of the ice off Siberia.
After the NE Passage fiasco, the destroyed climate data and the misplaced sensors, can we really put any trust in reporting beyond what is happening outside our windows? A satellite sensor degrades, an airport sensor goes haywire, and they snap at the chance to feed like a pack of alligators.
Irregardless of whether there is a return to another LIA or not, the means to report and drum beat an overheated world into the psyche is in full swing.
The madness is Ice Crystal Clear.
A shortened and troubled growing season in parts of the US & Canada will inevitably pancake over into Europe. A quick look at Cyrosphere Today shows why: the ice grows N. America’s way. The Media hungrily buys a seat on the bus that is to travel on the wrong side of the freeway.
This is as I would have expected from the moderate El Nino this year. The SST temperatures are clearly warming the air up a little globally and have pushed the air circulation systems a little poleward. The effet in the air of such oceanic changes appears to be virtually immediate and clearly noticeable within a few weeks.
However the past strong La Nina (2007) is still in the process of passing through the mid and upper latitude oceans hence the signs of cold in both hemispheres poleward of the mid latitudes.
If this El Nino fades away and another modrate to strong La Nina follows in a couple of years then the overall cooling trend will continue.
It is clear that the newly negative PDO phase has increased the power of La Nina events and reduced the power of El Nino events and will likely continue to do so until around 2035.
In the meantime any El Ninos that do occur will do just as the current one has done, namely quickly transfer energy to the air causing some warming of the air globally and shifting the air circulation systems poleward.
Nevertheless despite such temporary events the general downward drift of air temperatures will continue.
That opinion could be falsified by stronger El Nino events and weaker La Nina events but even if that happens the effect on global air temperatures from oceanic behaviour will still have been well demonstrated.
The importance of that would be that the series of powerful El Ninos in the late 20th century could well have been sufficient on their own to explain the observed modest warming of the air.
The fact is that both CO2 AND solar effects (assuming Leif to be right) are inadequate to contribute significantly to multidecadal changes in global air temperatures.
That just leaves us with the oceans and a plethora of other possible second level modulating effects (such as the Svensmark hypothesis) which as often as not work against one another and cancel out leaving the oceans in control.
Solar changes would still be important on longer time scales but it is currently difficult to establish the time scale at which solar becomes a significant contributor in the face of what appears to be a huge oceanic influence.
It makes no significant difference to my climate description as to the timescale at which solar influences become important or the precise mechanisms which control the rates at which oceanic energy release occurs at different times though I have made suggestions on both those issues previously.
Once one accepts that the rate of energy release from oceans to air does vary and that it does so over long timescales (interannual, multidecadal and probably also millennial) and involves substantial quantities of energy then a great deal (if not all) of what we observe becomes accounted for.
The best diagnostic indicator would seem to be the latitudinal position of the ITCZ which serves as a proxy for the latitudinal position of ALL the air circulation systems and those positions (subject to a degree of chaotic behaviour) are dictated directly by the rate of oceanic energy release.
Old PI (11:04:50) :
Ditto Iowa and North Dakota; never did get summer in central North Dakota, got 2″ of snow mid June. In Iowa, we only got a few hot days, and September was without a single hot day. Now October is off to a chilling start, may have flurries on Sunday.
Screw getting rid of MWP, they’re going to need to cool down the entire 20th century if global warming is to remain. Are there any bristle cones in North America?
Mount Washington New Hampshire.
Come talk to me about warming when it starts warming up there in January.
http://i38.tinypic.com/rvhsv8.jpg
Sept. 2009: 19th warmest month in the UAH record.
9 of the 20 warmest months in the UAH record were in 1998.
The linear regression since the oceans started to cool in 2003 still has a very negative slope.
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